Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turnin’ Up the Heat!

2009 Zach Greinke vs. 2004 Ben Sheets

November 19, 2009 · 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

Sure, I’m about to beat a dead horse.  But it’s my blog (and Dan’s?), so I’m allowed.

I was very pleased to see the voters actually get one right and award Zach Greinke with the AL Cy Young yesterday.  Greinke was the best pitcher in baseball this season and definitely deserved the award.  Of course, the only reason there was any doubt was because of Greinke’s lack of wins–16.  That people still let an utterly meaningless “stat” such as win-loss record influence their evaluation is an embarrassment.  Fortunately, it did not affect the outcome in this case, but it still has in many cases.  None more glaring than… (Dah, dah dah daaaaah) The 2004 season of Ben Sheets! Cue the groaning, people heading for exits.

Let’s compare the two seasons.  You may be surprised by what we find (or if you know me at all, I guess you probably won’t)

Greinke 2009

229.1 Innings, 2.16 ERA, 242 strikeouts, 51 walks, 11 home runs

Sheets 2004

237.0 Innings, 2.70 ERA, 264 strikeouts, 32 walks, 25 home runs

Those are the only numbers I listed because other stats incorporate all these in some way.  ERA is extremely subjective and dependent things like defense and scoring.  Strikeouts, walks and home runs are the only things completely controlled by the pitcher (hence the title of Three True Outcomes).

To have the most value, you need to throw a lot of innings.  As you can see, both Greinke and Sheets were workhorses in these seasons.  The rest of the numbers are debatable as to who was more valuable.

The most glaring difference is home run totals.  As a fly ball pitcher, Sheets has always been plagued by the long ball.  25 is not a very good number.  On the other hand, 11 home runs in 229 innings by Greinke is insane.

Then you get to k/bb ratios, which is my favorite stat to look at for pitchers.  I consider a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio to be very good, and it’s the marker I’m looking for if I for some reason needed to identify ace-caliber pitchers on a moment’s notice.  Greinke’s ratio of 4.75 is excellent.

Then we get to Sheets.  He had both a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than Greinke’s 2009.  It’s good for an 8.25 k/bb mark, which is just otherworldly.  I went over the significance of that ratio in my Ode to Ben Sheets last year, so I won’t recite all that again except to say that it’s historic.  Incidentally, he put up a ratio of 10.55 in 2006, but that was over 106 innings.

So which was better?  For my personal affinity towards k/bb, I’d take Sheets’ season over Greinke’s.  It’s certainly debatable and there probably isn’t a wrong answer.  That’s not the point of this post.  All I’m trying to say is they are certainly comparable seasons in terms of value.

So what’s my point?  My point is that Greinke (rightfully) won the Cy Young in 2009.  Where did Sheets finish in 2004?  First?  Second?  Nope.  Would you believe a tie for eighth?  Because that’s what it was.

Is there any logical explanation for this?  Of course not; we’re discussing MLB Awards voters here.  The illogical, asinine, mind-numbingly stupid explanation is that Sheets’ record in 2004 was 12-14.  That he could have a losing record with that incredible stat line speaks volumes to how awful the rest of the team was, but that’s beside the point.

Roger Clemens won the Cy Young in 2004.  He had a very good season, but all the peripherals outside of home runs were vastly inferior to Sheets’.  The “edge” Clemens had over Sheets was his record; Clemens was 18-4 that year.  In truth, there was another candidate more deserving than Clemens aside from Sheets.  Randy Johnson had an insane year (290 strikeouts) but finished second in the voting due to a 16-14 record.

This still bothers me today, as if you couldn’t tell.  Sheets’ 2004 is better than most Cy Young seasons.  The majority of baseball fans have no idea Sheets ever had such a dominating season.  Many don’t realize he was a workhorse ace for many years.  In fact, many fans look at Sheets’ overall tenure with the Brewers in a negative light!  Sure he’s had more than his fair share of injuries, but those were all after 2005.  People don’t realize how good he was.  And it’s all because he was stuck on crappy teams and couldn’t get wins.

Every time I hear win totals used as the prominent qualification for the Hall of Fame, or hear Joe Morgan say the first thing he looks at in Cy Young voting is Win-Loss record, or hear a pitcher criticized for not getting more wins, a small part of me dies inside.  Performance should not be judged by a completely meaningless stat.  It will never happen, but I’d love to see the Win-Loss stat removed from the scorebook.

And take saves, batting average and RBIs with it.

→ 5 CommentsCategories: Uncategorized
Tagged: , , ,

Odds and ends

November 17, 2009 · 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

For the most part, the off-season has begun the way I was hoping.  The Brewers declined David Weathers’ option (admittedly, this should have been a no-brainer).  Then on Friday they announced they were also declining to pick up the $6 million option for Braden Looper.

What a relief.  The only positive thing you can say about Looper’s time with the Brewers was that he stayed healthy all season.  He was most definitely part of the problem with the pitching staff.  The production he provided for one fifth of the starting rotation must be improved upon next season.  He likely isn’t as bad as he performed in 2009 (he was easily one of the five worst starters in baseball and had never been that bad before), but even if he’s slightly better next year, the Brewers will still get more bang for their buck if they spend that money elsewhere.  I’d be surprised if Looper stays in someone’s rotation next season.

————

Some interesting reports surfacing in the aftermath of the J.J. Hardy trade.  Tom Haudricourt has reported that both Boston and Pittsburgh made offers for Hardy.  From Boston, the Brewers asked for talented young pitchers Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard, and probably got rejected in about half a second.  TH reports the Red Sox offered prospect Michael Bowden.  Bowden is a decent prospect but nothing more.  He had a 3.11 ERA in 126.1 innings at AAA, but he had just a pedestrian strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.87.  That doesn’t bode well for the big leagues.  Bowden is not likely to be any better than any of the Brewers starters outside of maybe Jeff Suppan next season, and they don’t need another number 5 starter.

The reported Pittsburgh offers were a bit more interesting.  One offer was for closer Matt Capps.  Capps regressed terribly last season, as his home runs and walks allowed were way up.  The other offer was Ryan Doumit, which is at least a better offer than Capps.  Doumit has a career .780 OPS, which is a nice number for a catcher.  However, the Brewers seem to like the idea of giving Jonathan Lucroy a shot this year.  Furthermore, both Capps and Doumit are due for arbitration raises and will cost at least a few million more than Carlos Gomez.

Many weren’t pleased with the return for Hardy, but I’ve yet to hear a reported offer that I prefer to the one the Brewers took.

————

Not great news, as rotoworld/Buster Olney reports Craig Counsell is in high demand after his solid season in Milwaukee, and could actually garner a two-year deal.  If that happens, it’s likely that Counsell will not return to the Brewers.  That would be too bad; Counsell was a great utility player last season.  You have to wonder how good his career numbers may have been had he scrapped that goofy batting stance even earlier than last season.

————

Lastly, it’s been quite awhile, but we finally have a return of the Milwaukee Brewers to my dreams.  Surprisingly, this one actually did not involve Rickie Weeks.  Allow me to share.

I am at my annual family Christmas gathering, but for some reason, one of the guests is none other than Manny Parra.  Making it weirder is the fact his presence is completely normal to me.  I start chatting with him; he’s a friendly guy.

At one point a thought comes to me.  At work, Parra was one of the tougher pitchers to chart.  I always felt he threw a slider, but others were not totally convinced.  For guys like that, we were supposed to keep a look out for any interviews in which the pitcher discussed his repertoire.  It occurs to me that I have a golden opportunity–I can simply ask Manny what he throws!

“Hey, Manny, I actually have a question for you.  People have a tough time charting some of your pitches.  I have you as fastball, changeup, splitter, slider, curve.  Is that right?”

“No, man!  That’s not right at all!  All I throw is a fastball and a changeup.”

“Really?  But I’ve seen you throw multiple curveballs.  And I’ve heard you talk about your splitter!”

“I swear, just fastball and change.”

I woke up completely convinced that Parra only threw those two pitches.

→ 5 CommentsCategories: 2010 Hot Stove · Cornucopia of thoughts · Steve's Brewers/Baseball-related dreams
Tagged: , , ,

November: An appropriate time for a cornucopia

November 9, 2009 · 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Quite a bit to talk about in the aftermath of the J.J. Hardy trade.  This off-season will really be all about starting pitching, so that’s what I’ll largely focus on here.

Before we get into that, though, the Brewers made the correct move in declining the $3.7 million option on David Weathers in 2010.  Weathers is no longer a solid reliever, and that money will be better spent elsewhere.  Now if they’d only do the same with Braden Looper’s option…

———-

In a blog entry published yesterday, Buster Olney ranked the Brewers number 1 on his list of teams “ready and willing to pay the price to land an ace.”  He dismissed Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez because he doesn’t believe they want to trade from an already depleted farm system to land a one-year rental.  Instead, he suggests the Brewers could aggressively pursue John Lackey.  He is right to say that the Brewers can afford him; they were willing to spend $100 million on CC Sabathia last season.

Problem is, Lackey’s good, but he’s no CC.  Career ERA of 3.81, 2.72 K/BB ratio.  If you’re into labeling, Lackey is probably more like a strong number two starter on an ideal playoff team from here on out.  He’d probably be as good as or possibly even better than Yovani Gallardo, which would be a huge upgrade to the pitching staff, but at what cost?  Lackey will be the premiere starting pitcher in free agency, which means he’ll almost surely get at least five years.  After the Jeff Suppan debacle, I’m not crazy about the Brewers giving any pitcher more than three years unless he’s a bona fide stud without a prior injury history(a la CC).  Lackey hasn’t been seriously injured, but he has missed time each of the last two seasons with elbow problems (never a good sign) and is 31.  Paying $15 or so million to a 36-year-old John Lackey is not in the Brewers’ best interests.

The Brewers will likely express interest, as they should, but I imagine they’ll ultimately decide to look elsewhere once the bidding war heats up.

———-

There are other options worth exploring in free agency.  Randy Wolf isn’t bad, but he’s probably in line for at least $8 million a year for three years.  Names like Doug Davis and Jon Garland do not interest me unless they somehow came cheap; the Brewers don’t need more number four starters making $6-10 million.  The type of players they should look at are talented ones that come with injury/durability issues, but will come at a discounted price for that reason.  Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer and even our old pal Ben Sheets fits into this category.  All three are number 1/2 starter caliber when healthy, but none of them are likely to receive more than a one or two year offer, with the possible exception of Harden.

———-

Another name connected with the Brewers is Mark Mulder.  Mulder pitched under newly hired pitching coach Rick Peterson during his best years in Oakland, and the speculation is that he’d like to reunite with Peterson for a comeback attempt.  Mulder would not be too expensive, but then again, he shouldn’t be counted on as a top-of-the-rotation guy anymore.

———-

At minimum, I’d expect the Brewers to sign one starter and trade for another.  There are two types of trades we might see–a blockbuster, in which multiple players are moved for a good young pitcher with multiple years left before free agency.  In this scenario, Mat Gamel is almost certain to be dealt, as he is one of the Brewers most valuable trading chips.  The other type of trade is trading a mid-level prospect or two for a solid, established veteran making much more than league minimum.  I’ll throw out Aaron Harang’s name as an example.  Cincinnati was rumored to be shopping him at the deadline, so I’m assuming he could be available again.  The Reds probably wouldn’t require much in a trade if the Brewers took all of Harang’s salary, which they have room for.

I’m very curious to see what the Brewers do this off-season.  Forming a formidable pitching staff for next season is an incredibly daunting task considering how bad it was in 2009.  We were treated with an early start to the off-season with the Hardy trade, but we’ll likely have to wait at least a few weeks before the ball really gets rolling.

→ 3 CommentsCategories: 2010 Hot Stove · Cornucopia of thoughts
Tagged: ,

Is it really all that bad? Maybe?

November 6, 2009 · 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Brewer fans are already lighting up message boards with anger over the newly announced trade: J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez.  If you listen to them, Doug Melvin just mishandled the Brewers most valuable trade chip.

I suppose he may have, but I’m not convinced.  Since Hardy laid an egg this year, I’ve been saying it’s extremely difficult to gauge his trade value.  Of this I’m certain:  nobody was going to give up established starting pitching for him unless it was a bad contract.  Before last season, sure.  But Hardy really hurt the Brewers by slashing his trade value.

As far as Carlos Gomez is concerned…  Well, yeah I admit he was one of the players I mocked the most in baseball.  His offense in the majors to this point has been awful (.292 OBP).  And can’t stand how often he attempts to bunt.  But, just bear with me and consider the following:

  • Gomez is still only 23, and will be 24 this season.  His OBP in the minors was .339, so there’s reason enough to believe his offense could/should improve.
  • His defense in center field is even better than Mike Cameron’s.  He’s blazing fast and will cover a ton of ground in center.  I really like that the Brewers are putting an emphasis on defense.  I was afraid of a Corey Hart/Jody Gerut platoon in center, which would have been a big defensive downgrade from Mike Cameron.
  • This, of course, means the end of Mike Cameron’s run in Milwaukee.  That’s too bad; he is one of my favorite Brewers ever.  But, this means the Brewers save a ton of money.  Between Hardy and Cameron’s salaries, the Brewers have slashed $14.5 million off last year’s payroll.  I say last year only because it’s hard to say what A. Hardy would have received in arbitration or B. Cameron would have required to bring back.  Still, it’s a big chunk of change that can now be spent on pitching.  They could actually afford someone like John Lackey now (not necessarily saying they should, just saying they probably could).
  • I didn’t see Hardy as the Brewers biggest trade chip.  I think Mat Gamel has more trade value, and unfortunately I expect him to be traded.  If he goes, it will definitely be for pitching.
  • The Brewers could do what the Twins did with Gomez.  They often played Denard Span, a superior offensive player, in center field, but subbed in Gomez late in a game when they got a lead.  When the Twins were trailing late, they’d sub in Span for Gomez.  The Brewers could do this with Jody Gerut.
  • Female fans are sure to be devastated, but thankfully this trade is heartthrob for heartthrob.  Gomez was number two to only to All-World, Mr. Sideburns himself, Joe Mauer in Minnesota among the ladies.

So, there you have it.  Obviously you should decide for yourself whether to like this trade, but I am alright with it.  I will say that while I’m “alright with it” as a Brewer fan, I love it from a Twins perspective.  They can play Denard Span every day in center field, and they get what should be a big upgrade at shortstop.  The Twins haven’t had a good shortstop in years.  Of course, this is all dependent on Hardy bouncing back, but their only risk if he doesn’t is giving up a guy who played part time for them.

I’m not pleased to see Hardy go.  I still think he’s the better bet over Escobar to have a better year this season.  But, the Brewers aren’t trading Escobar, and they can’t afford the luxury of keeping two good players at one position when they have such huge pitching needs.

When it boils down to it, this trade was spare part for spare part.  Both players had fallen out of favor with their teams, and each is moving to a team that has a bigger need for him.

Finally, I’d just like to add that I seem to have cemented myself as “that Brewer fan that people know.”  How do I know this?  Because in the first hour after this trade hit the press, my phone lit up with text messages.  I heard from people I haven’t spoken to in weeks, even months in a couple cases.  ”Gomez for Hardy!”  ”What do you think of the trade?”  ”Gomez!?  Really!?” etc, etc.

→ 1 CommentCategories: 2010 Hot Stove · Milwaukee Brewers 2010
Tagged: , ,

Washburn?

October 30, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

Multiple sources have indicated the Brewers will have interest in signing Jarrod Washburn.  The fact that he is from Wisconsin makes it a plausible match, apparently.  This doesn’t excite me at all.

Washburn was decent enough last year, though not as good as his 3.78 ERA suggests.  Granted, it was the best year he’s had in five years, but that’s not exactly saying very much.  He’s been a number 4-5 type starter, and that’s what he’d be with the Brewers.

Washburn is better than Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper, and possibly better than Manny Parra and Dave Bush, but is that really where the Brewers are setting their sites?  Personally I still like Dave Bush more than Washburn, and I’ll still take whatever’s left of Parra’s upside, though I admit both of those statements are debatable.

Washburn’s ERA was 3.78 last year, but that doesn’t tell the true story.  His k/bb was 2.04, which is solid-average but nothing more.  His highest mark in the four years previous was 1.87.  His batting average on balls in play was .257–well below league average and by far the lowest mark of his career.  That indicates he had good luck.  His FIP of 4.58 is more indicative of his true performance.  Sure, you could expect a few ticks off that in a switch to the NL, but hoping for anything better than an FIP of 4.3 is probably unrealistic.

If the Brewers can get him on a one year deal similar to the one they gave Braden Looper for 2009, fine.  It will probably take more money or more years than that, in which case I’m not interested.  The Brewers can trade for A) A pitcher of similar effectiveness who will cost much less, or B) A pitcher of similar salary who will pitch better.

If the best pitcher the Brewers add this off-season is Jarrod Washburn, they won’t be going anywhere next year anyway.  They need to find a way to get quality starting pitching.  It certainly won’t be easy.

→ Leave a CommentCategories: Uncategorized
Tagged:

Gas on the fire

October 21, 2009 · 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I just wanted to pass along this pretty timely article from the Wall Street Journal written by Jonah Keri.  I’m encouraged that this idea is really starting to catch steam.  It will probably take a few years, but I really expect to see the roles of umpires diminished–and that’s a good thing.

Not much else, really.  The Brewers hired a new pitching coach, Rick Peterson.  I’m sure what will happen is the three pitchers in the Brewers rotation who had the worst years of their careers will regress to the mean and improve somewhat, which will lead to a bevy of articles praising the genius of the new coach.

→ 2 CommentsCategories: Uncategorized

Return of the Sha-wuuhhh?

October 15, 2009 · 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

My dad pulled off an incredibly cruel prank on me today.  Here’s how the phone conversation went:

D: So, did you hear the news about Ned Yost?

S: Did Houston actually hire him!?

D: Yep!

S: Oh my God!  That’s fantastic!  I don’t believe it!

D: A five-year contract!

S: WHAT!?!? (about ready to pass out)

D:  Nah, I’m just kiddin’.  He did have his interview today, though.

Boy, that will sure let the wind out of your sails.  Still, the fact that he’s actually being considered has me in a great mood.  Can you imagine having Ned Yost in the Brewers’ division?  I need to stop thinking about this to avoid getting my hopes up.

——–

If you watch any of the playoff games on TBS, pay attention to the strike zone they’ve been showing.  I guarantee there will be a minimum of ten missed ball/strike calls that were more than three inches off–in other words, not even borderline calls.  More likely, it will be 15-20 or more in a game.  In this technological age, how can this still be considered acceptable?  These people are the very best umpires in the world, and their ineptitude is front and center for the world to see.  When Phil Cuzzi can’t tell a fair ball from a foul one while standing 15 feet away, isn’t that proof that an improvement is needed?

The two main arguments against replay, or even an electronic strike zone, hold no water with me.

Adding replay would take more time and add to the length of the game.  Dan told me the other day that he watched someone argue this on ESPN as highlights of Jim Leyland arguing a call played in the background.  Hilarious.  Managers coming out to argue doesn’t slow down the game?  There’s a decent chance that adding this could actually cut down on game time when you consider that we wouldn’t need to watch mangers arguing for minutes at a time.  Put an official in the press box who’s assigned to replays and can immediately look at them, and it wouldn’t even be as much of an ordeal as home run calls currently are.

Umpires and human error are part of the game. Really?  Part of the game?  Ask any team who gets screwed by a bad call if they think it should be part of the game.  It’s been part of the game because, until recently, it was the best option available.  Now, an option exists that is more efficient than human umpires, but baseball refuses to use it.  As usual, the sport is behind the times.  Football has had an effective replay system for years, and it’s definitely improved the game.  Basketball uses instant replay.  Even tennis has a challenge replay system.  Yet here sit the old timers in control of baseball, resisting any sort of change from “back in the day.”

Are we really saying that having umpires and the element of human error is more important than getting calls right?  Because I’ll never be convinced of that.

——–

The Brewers writers at the Journal-Sentinel once again did their “player grades” at the end of the season, and once again I take exception to many of them.  Here are the ones I disagree with the most.

Jacon Kendall: C

C?  As in average?  Because Jason Kendall wasn’t even close to average, particularly on offense.  Comically, the writers admit that Kendall’s effectiveness at throwing out runners dropped dramatically, and that he has no power.  Yet his grade is held up by things that are completely intangible, such as his “toughness, leadership, the way he calls games and the way he handles himself behind the plate.”  Commence nausea.  I can’t believe how much people are willing to put up with a crappy player because of this garbage.

Braden Looper: C+

Oh goodness.  That’s above average.  Looper was decidedly below average.  He was actually bad.  His FIP was the worst in the Majors among qualified starters.  His strikeout rate was poor, and his home run rate was abysmal–also worst in the Majors (by far).  Literally the only good thing you can say about Braden Looper is that he stayed healthy all year.  Yet, even though they site his insane run support average of 8.97 runs per game, they still give him some credit for garnering 14 wins.

Rickie Weeks earns an INCOMPLETE, which I guess I understand, but then how can they give Alcides Escobar a B+?  Escobar had 134 plate appearances this year, while Weeks had 162.  Weeks was obviously far more productive… So how can Escobar receive a grade when Weeks did not?  What did Escobar do to deserve a B+?  Hit for a .701 OPS?  Weeks’ .857 OPS wasn’t worth grading, though.  Naturally.

Better yet, they concluded that Mat Gamel’s 148 plate appearances of .760 OPS was worth a C-.  Escobar got to play regularly, while Gamel would go days at a time without an appearance.  How does this add up?

→ 4 CommentsCategories: Cornucopia of thoughts · Milwaukee Brewers 2009 · Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??
Tagged: , , , , , ,

Trevor Time and Macha… Malaise?

October 5, 2009 · 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

News!  One day after the season, and we already have 2010 news to talk about.

First things first.  The Crew put a nice cap on a disappointing season by sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis.  If that in any way has a negative effect on St. Louis as they head into the playoffs, I’m all for it.  In fact, I will say right now that if the Cardinals do not win the World Series, it will be because they ended the season on a low note–thanks to the Brewers.

An 80-82 record for 2009 stinks, but since I’ve been all about 2010 for the last two months, we can easily make it a good thing!  That record is in the bottom 15 of MLB teams, which means the Brewers can sign a Type A free agent and still keep their first round pick.  I don’t necessarily expect them to do so, but at least it’s an option.

Slipping through the cracks on this crazy Monday afternoon (apparently there’s some football game tonight?) may be the news that Trevor Hoffman has quickly re-signed with the Brewers for next season.  The deal is for $8 million, and Buster Olney reports that there is a mutual option for 2011.

Spending $8 million on someone who will soon be 42 years old is generally a good way to build a bad team, but Hoffman is definitely an exception.  Hoffman was fantastic this season: 1.83 ERA, 0.907 WHIP, 3.43 strikeout to walk ratio.  At worst, he was one of the top 20 relief pitchers in the majors.

Hoffman is getting a raise from the $6 mil he made in 2009, and $8 mil for a closer is about the most I’m comfortable with.  He has a great track record, though, and has showed no sign of slowing down.  The Brewers have every reason to expect him to be a good closer again next season.

The other move I’d like to see get done quickly is the re-signing of Mike Cameron for another year.  Cameron made a comment a few weeks ago along the lines of being “willing to make sacrifices” to come back next season.  That certainly seems to mean a pay cut, or at least no pay raise.

There’s a sentiment that bringing back Hoffman and Cameron eats up money that should be spent on starting pitching, but I don’t agree with it.  These are productive players who are worth their salary.  There are other ways to trim the fat off the payroll and free up space to acquire pitching.  The Brewers should make the following moves:

  • Non-tender Seth McClung.  He was awful this year and will be set to make a couple million bucks next season.  No need to spend that on his 1.03 k/bb ratio.
  • Decline Braden Looper’s $6 million option.  Looper was bad this year–below replacement level, in fact.  His “production” should be replaced and improved upon by a newcomer.
  • Do not, I repeat, DO NOT RE-SIGN JASON KENDALL.  He was quite possibly the worst everyday player in baseball.  Seeing his $4.25 million salary come off the books is a beautiful sight to behold.  I’d much rather let Jonathan Lucroy, Angel Salome and Mike Rivera battle it out and split time.  It probably still won’t be very productive, but it can’t be any worse than what they had this season–and it will be cheap.  Plus, the Brewers are likely to have one black hole in their everyday lineup next year (Escobar), so they can’t afford to play both Escobar and Kendall.
  • Decline David Weathers’ $3.7 million option.  Weathers is no longer good.  His overall numbers this season are poor.  There’s no reason not to give some youngers guys a shot next year.  Someone like John Axford is likely to put up at least the 1.5-ish whip that Weathers brings, only he’ll do it for the league minimum.  I will miss his new nickname used in the BIS office, though:  Jeff Karstens’ dad.

I’m also pretty much resigned to the fact that the Brewers will probably be trading J.J. Hardy, which means at least $4.5 million more off the books (before the salaries of the player(s) they receive in return).

That’s roughly $20 million right there that can be trimmed without losing very much production.  I’d much rather save money there than save it by letting actual productive players (Hoffman and Cameron) walk.

Finally, we’re on to Ken Macha.  He is being brought back next season, and I can’t say I’m surprised.  Doug Melvin was not the driving force behind the firing of Ned Yost, and it’s not surprising that he wouldn’t want to fire a manager that he hand-picked one year ago.

I’m not crazy about the move, but I guess it’s not the worst thing in the world.  He’s certainly not as bad as Ned Yost.  What’s funny is Macha and Yost seem to be polar opposites in a lot of ways.  For the first two months of the season, I thought Macha did an outstanding job with bullpen management.  Meanwhile, “Ned Yost” and “outstanding bullpen management” have never been used in the same sentence until this one was created.

Yost’s strength was with a young team with no pressure to win.  He wasn’t bad when Fielder, Hart, Hardy, Weeks, etc. were all breaking into the big leagues and nobody expected the Brewers to win games.  He was protective of his players to the point of absurdity.  But when the team’s talent grew, Yost was in way over his head.

On the other hand, Macha has only managed winning teams until this season.  He isn’t afraid to criticize a player in the media, which is fine.  He never did anything over the top, and to be honest it was refreshing after listening to Yost say “Soup pitched great!” so many times in 2008.  Because he’s only had winning teams, I didn’t realize that he apparently hates playing young players.  His mishandling of Mat Gamel all season is embarrassing and completely inexcusable.  He abused Yovani Gallardo.  He wasn’t even crazy about playing Alcides Escobar full time when J.J. Hardy was in AAA.  He said Josh Butler would get a start.  Not only did he not give Butler a start; but Butler was sent home before the season even ended with only four major league innings under his belt.  That Craig Counsell continued to get starts in September was also an embarrassment.  Counsell had a good season, but you know what you have in him.  September is the time for non-contenders to get a better look at their young players, and Macha just refused to do that.

Here’s hoping the Brewers field a more talented team next year, because I’m guessing (okay, hoping) that Macha is more equipped for that type of team.

Say, this was fun.  I really enjoyed getting to use the Sha-wuuhhh?? tag again for nostalgia’s sake.

→ 1 CommentCategories: Milwaukee Brewers 2010 · Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??
Tagged: , , , , , , ,

Defense wins games?

October 2, 2009 · 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

As recently as five years ago, defense in baseball was not examined half as much as it is now.  Moneyball had recently hit the shelves, and on-base percentage was all the rage.  As you recall, the book described how the A’s willingly sacrificed defensive prowess if a player got on base at a high clip.  It worked for them because many teams had not yet realized the importance of on-base percentage, and they could afford to field a team with a great OBP.  That isn’t the case anymore, and guys with good OBPs no longer come cheap.

A common misconception about Moneyball is that it’s all about slow guys who take walks and hit homers.  That isn’t the case–and that should be obvious if you simply look at the makeup of A’s teams of the last couple seasons.  What Moneyball is really about is determining what skillset is undervalued on the market and spending your limited resources to acquire that skillset cheaply.  When Moneyball was written, that skillset was on-base percentage.  Over the last few years, that has shifted to defense–particularly defensive range.

A great case study for evidence is the new club of our savior and former scouting director, Jack Zduriencik.  Seattle went from being a terrible team to having a winning record in one season, despite slashing $6 million from its payroll.  How did they do it?  Well, Jack Z went out and got himself some guys who can flash the leather.

They let slugger but defensively challenged Raul Ibanez walk in free agency (but offered arbitration and got comp picks).  They added Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, two great defensive outfielders, in trades.  They traded for Jack Wilson, likely the best defensive shortstop in the game, at the trade deadline.  They gave substantial playing time to catcher Rob Johnson, a poor hitter but defensive standout.

Last year the Mariners allowed 811 runs.  This year, with just a few games to go, they have allowed 679 runs.  A gigantic difference, and their starting rotation was largely unchaged.  Most of it is due to improved team defense.

It’s not just Seattle.  This is evident all across the league.  The Angels play Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick up the middle despite their light hitting because they’re good defenders.  Texas moved Michael Young off shortstop and played Elvis Andrus at there all year despite his underdeveloped bat because he’s an elite defender. The Brewers presumably are seriously considering doing the same thing with Alcides Escobar next year.  Even one of B.B.K.T.U.T.H.’s favorite whipping boys, Tony Gwynn Jr., has had positive value due to his defense in center field for the Padres.

Baseball Info Solutions is a leader in defensive analysis.  Their information is used by fangraphs to calculate Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).  Aside from publishing The Fielding Bible, BIS puts out The Bill James Handbook each year.  We were asked to vote for the ten best defenders at each position for the handbook, and I turned mine in yesterday.  Having spent all year watching all the teams, we already had a general idea of who was good.  I also put a significant amount of stock into the information we spent all season gathering–we charted hit locations, which helped determine range, and we awarded Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays to players for every game played by every team this season.

Rather than revealing my entire ballot (why not get the book and see what the seasoned experts had to say?),  I will list a few nuggets.

-The winner of the “Player Steve Likes to Watch More Than Anyone” award goes to Franklin Gutierrez.  He is superb.  I look forward to watching Mariners games because I love watching that guy play defense.  He gets great jumps, takes great routes and has good speed.  Some of the balls he gets to you’d think had no chance of being caught off the bat.

-Other truly outstanding defenders: Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, Jack Wilson, Carl Crawford, Chase Utley.

-Guys who graded out very well who may not yet have the rep as great defenders: Ryan Sweeney, Nyjer Morgan, Brendan Ryan (absolute cannon for an arm), Paul Janish, Kendry Morales, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz.

-Brewers’ best defenders of 2009: Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy, Felipe Lopez.

-Brewer’ worst defenders of 2009: Ryan Braun, Corey Hart.

Ryan Braun is straight up baaaad in left field.  As in one of the three or four worst left fielders in baseball.  What’s interesting is that he has one of the highest good fielding play totals, which goes to show that the eye can be deceiving.  We see Braun make diving and sliding catches and assume he’s good defensively.  In truth, fielders who get better jumps and take better routes get to many of those balls on the run and don’t have to dive or slide, hence no GFP.  I found it interesting to see that many of the outfielders with high GFP totals graded out poorly in range, which backs up this premise.

It will be very interesting to see what the next wave of undervalued skillset in baseball will be.  Just as on-base percentage caught on in a big way, defensive ability is no longer going unnoticed.

→ 2 CommentsCategories: Defense

Still here

September 24, 2009 · 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Yes, I realize the Brewers are still playing.  There are a couple reasons why I haven’t posted much.  1.  I lost most of my desire to discuss the Brewers’ 2009 season any further when Craig Counsell got a start at third base the other night.  I’m much more likely to discuss the upcoming off-season.  2.  Somehow, my internship at BIS is already winding down, and I’ve been pretty busy with job/moving out stuff.

It truly was a great “job.”  I put that in quotes because I don’t feel as though I’ve actually worked all summer.  Watching and learning more about baseball is something I’d do in my free time, so it’s been great.  I’ve had fun working with other baseball nuts from all different parts of the country.

I guess I don’t really have much more than that right now.  On with the pointless push for .500!

→ 3 CommentsCategories: Uncategorized