Monthly Archives: April 2007

Posted by Dan

According to the Brewers training staff, Brewers Ace Ben Sheets is “probable” for his next start. An MRI revealed there is no tear and only a minor strain of the groin, so I think until he misses more than one start we should stay calm. Removing him from the game when the temperature is cold was precautionary and I think the right move this early in the season.

Also, while steve’s fantasy teams are being bombarded by injuries, mine are being bombarded by opposing batters. Last night, Trevor Hoffman cost me a save, and wasted Jake Peavy’s 7 IP, 16 K performance on a Stephen Drew walk off HR. Jonathan Broxton allowed a run, as did Joel Zumaya (2 ER in 0.2 IP, actually). Luckily for me, Chad Cordero kept his 5.79 ERA and 2.36 WHIP on the bench.

Posted by Dan

So, for my Econ class, we had an assignment that was basically “pick an economic phenomenon that at first glance doesn’t make sense” — like why drive up ATM’s have braille dots? Doesnt seem to make sense at first, but its to save costs by only making one set for both walk up and drive up ATMs… Got it? If not, it doesnt matter. I chose to write about why free agency inflates player salaries and why owners pay free agents so much more than they’re worth. it was a pretty short assignment, so ill post it here, and dont mind the econ terms i threw in since its for school…..

In 1968, the average salary of a professional baseball player was $19,000 a year. In 2006, that number rose to a staggering $2,699,292. What happened in between? Why do the owners of professional baseball teams give free agents such exorbitant amounts of money relative to their production?
In 1966, Economist Marvin Miller was elected Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) President. He had climbed his way up the ladder of the United Auto Workers and the Steelworkers Unions and new how to negotiate. The biggest accomplishment of Miller’s tenure, was the creation of free agency. Prior to the birth of free agency, the rights to a ballplayer were controlled by the team who had him under contract last. Under the new system, owners were free to bid for the rights to players on the open market. The competition between owners for players rights caused salaries to skyrocket. Miller, a shrewd negotiator and economist knew that too many players on the market would bring salaries back down, and agreed to restrict free agency to players with 6 years of major league service time. This would ensure that free agency would always be a limited pool of players. This scarcity would ensure that players salaries would remain high. Demand for players by the owners remains (basically) constant from year to year, and the limited supply ensures plenty of competition for their services. Opportunity Cost comes into play because baseball players contracts are guaranteed. The moment a player signs a contract, the owner is on the hook for the entire monetary amount. That means if you commit $10 Million to a player, that is $10 Million the owner cannot spend on another player. Looking at statistics provides a good look at just how out of hand free agent spending has become in regards to what the owners are paying for.
Baseball statisticians, in an attempt to quantify a players importance or worth to their team, came up with the WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) statistic. What the statistic calculates, is how many wins a player accounts for above the level of a league average player making the league minimum ($380,000 in 2006). For example, a player with a WARP of 10.0 is worth 10 additional wins to his team compared to if his position was filled by a replacement player. The statistic takes into account offensive production and defensive production. When you look at some of the recent contracts signed by players, you have to wonder if this money could have been better spent? For example, this off-season, the Seattle Mariners signed Jeff Weaver to a 1 year/$8.325 Million contract. His WARP last year was 1.05. The Mariners are paying 21.9 times the league minimum for a player who should statistically account for 1 additional win. The Law of Marginal Productivity comes into play here, as adding additional resources (Money paid to the player) does not contribute to an appropriate increase in the output (Wins by a baseball team). Another example is the 8 year/ $136 Million dollars given to Outfielder Alfonso Soriano by the Chicago Cubs. This is a classic example of an owner grossly overpaying for a player who exceeded his normal career statistics in every category. In the past 3 seasons, Soriano has had a WARP of 4.4, 4.1 and 8.7 (Which one stands out?). Averaging the three, we’ll give him a 3 year average of 5.73. Over the course of the 8 year contract, Soriano will account for 45.84 additional wins. However, he will cost the Chicago Cubs $132,296,000 extra over those 8 years, which breaks down to $2,899,258 for EACH one of those extra wins. Is that really economically responsible? The answer appears to be a resounding no.
Free Agency in professional sports and specifically Major League Baseball is a system that has the fingerprints of economist Marvin Miller all over it. Concepts like the laws of supply and demand, resource scarcity, opportunity cost and marginal productivity all play key roles in the system. For as long as owners are allowed to compete for players with the winner being the highest bidder, salaries will continue to skyrocket, with no end in sight.

Posted by Dan

After last nights disappointing loss (credited to Brian Shouse, but I actually WATCH the games so I will direct my hostility to Greg Aquino) the Crew looks to bounce back tonight as they throw Chris Capuano (2-0, 2.81) vs Wandy Rodriguez (0-1, 2.77). I really expect the Brewers to pull this one off at home despite last nights late inning meltdown followed by near miraculous comeback. In 2006, Rodriguez pitched 15 2/3 innings, covering 3 starts, against the crew and posted an 0-2 record and 5.17 ERA, which was slightly better than his overall 5.64 ERA for the season. Capuano has been strong both at home, and early in the season (3.42 ERA Pre-ASB since 2005), though Houston is 4th in OPS this year against left handers (.853) — The Crew is 8th (.779).

Posted by Dan

Hello noble audience. I am the newest contributing member to this blog. I must warn you, that unlike amatuer journalist and soon to be college grad steve, I attend a tech college working on cars. Try to take that into account when reading my posts and cut me some slack. I thought I would make my first post a quick look at Friday’s game against the Houston Astros (7-6). It features 24 year old Matt Albers making his first start in 2007 and Brewer’s ace Ben Sheets (1-2; 5.85). In 2006 at AAA Round Rock, Albers posted a 10-2 record with a 2.17 ERA and 7.5 K/9. His success at the minor league level bodes well for his future, however, his inexperience at the major league level should (hopefully) cost him on Friday night. Though the season is young, the Crew leads the majors in OPS against right handed pitching (.809) and is third in the league in OPS at home (.821). Look for Sheets to bounce back from his ugly outing in St. Louis (3.58 career ERA at home). I look the Brewers to continue their (early) dominance of the central tomorrow.

Elsewhere, in my main fantasy league, having just completed a trade for Brett Myers I find myself completely stunned by the ridiculous decisions of Charlie Manuel. His decision to move Myers into a middle relief role and archaic Jon Lieber into the rotation is insane. Yes, thats 26 year old ace-of-the-future Brett Myers with 417 strikeouts since opening day 2005. I guess the only thing keeping me from total depression is the fact that, sooner or later, Manuel will either realize what a mistake he has made, or Phillies GM Pat Gillick will realize what a mistake HE has made and fire Manuel. Also, the possibility exists Myers could close if Tom Gordon would break down which would give him a boost in value. Either way, this is NOT what I was expecting when trading for him.

I am pleased to introduce a new author to “Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turnin’ Up the Heat!” That user is 8Letters4Ls, a.k.a. Dan Sikorski. Dan will bring some new insight and viewpoints to the site. He and I go back quite a ways. To fill you in, here’s our story in a nutshell.

1. I’m pretty sure we met at the neighborhood park around the age of three. At least this is what I think we tell people. I don’t think I have any recollection of this event, so it may not have even happened at all… But I do know we’ve known each other since before pre-school.

2. We rocked the it as members of the Baltimore Orioles t-ball team at Franklin Little League. We won every game and even batted around every inning.

3. Along with our younger brothers, we presided over the single-greatest baseball season of all time on Ken Griffey Jr. Baseball on Nintendo 64. Naturally, I won this franchise riding the coattails of Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, John Smoltz and Scott Kamieniecki.

4. Dan’s interest in the Brewers piqued, he became infected by brewerfan.net, and eventually, reached my level of dorky obsession. Then he joined my blog.

Oh, and somewhere along the way I accidentally punched him in the face on purpose. You can see a reenactment of that event laid out in the series of photos below. Welcome Dan!