Monthly Archives: May 2007

Posted by Steve

I knew that.  They weren’t a 100+ win team.  But lately the Brewers have played well below their ability.  Every team goes through slumps, even the good ones, so we shouldn’t start panicking–yet.  The Brewers still have the best team in the Central on paper, and there are still 110 games left.

Unfortunately, their nice cushion is all but gone.  It does not appear–at least yet, anyway–that Milwaukee will run away with the division.  It just means that we’re in store for an interesting season.

A few random thoughts/observations on their current slide:

• Tony Gwynn’s “hotness” has cooled down.  It’s time to let him be what he is: A light-hitting pinch runner, a defensive replacement and a spot starter.  I’d like to reiterate the SPOT part of spot starter.  That means only against tough righties once, maybe twice a week.  I actually think he’d do well in this role, but as is I have no choice but to loathe Tony Gwynn Jr.
• Going hand in hand, Corey Hart needs to play more.  It was probably easy to forget how dynamic of a player he can be.  His infield hits today were pretty much routine grounders to short.  He smoked that ball to right as well.  Unlike Tony Gwynn, Hart should not be a spot starter.  He should be starting at least 3-4 days in left or right.  Oh, and if you want a different leadoff hitter Ned, this is your guy.
• I know Kevin Mench isn’t this bad (.263/.267/.390), but we’ve been saying that for almost a year now.  At some point you have to think that he’s just may not be as good as he was in Texas.  That, and the Rangers’ Park helped his numbers quite a bit. It’s to the point where the Brewers can no longer afford to spend at-bats to get him out of his rut.  He’s taking ABs away from Hart, Gross and even Gwynn.  I think the Brewers could get something useful for a Mench-Vargas package; maybe another arm for the pen.  Then you put either Villanueva or Gallardo in the rotation and probably call up Vinny Rottino to spell Jenkins and Gross against tough lefties.  As I type I’m realizing this should have been its own post… But it’s already here, so deal with it.
• Nobody supported calling up Ryan Braun more than me–that fact is well documented throughout the brief history of this blog.  But even I think the Brewers have asked too much of him.  Yost said they weren’t going to depend on him to carry the offense.  So why then, Ned, have you put him in the three-hole the last two games? Braun admitted he was trying to do too much on Monday; I would hope he’s batting sixth or seventh on Tuesday.  What’s wrong with Weeks-Hardy-Fielder at the top?
• I still believe in Dave Bush.  Still.
• Upon further review, the NL Central does in fact appear to be that bad.  The Brewers have lost 13 of their last 17 games and astonishingly still hold a five game lead.  You can look at that as a positive thing, or you can say that if they had just played .500 over that stretch they’d have about a 12-game lead.  I’ll let you decide if the glass is half empty or half full.

So anywho, things don’t get any easier in the next couple days, with the Braves sending John Smoltz and Tim Hudson to face the Crew.  It’s a long season, and they have plenty of time to right this ship.  Look on the bright side: They’re still five up, they have a long homestand, Sheets-Smoltz could be a great game, and  Dave Bush is going for 8 IP/2 runs/9 Ks on Wednesday.  Book it.

Posted by Steve

As the TGJ thread at brewerfan approaches its 18th page, I have decided to bring my opinion here.  Anything at bf is pretty much lost among the mass of posts anyways.  The arguments have spiraled into the likes of stocks vs. bonds, Russell Branyan and Scott Podsednik.  It’s pretty amusing actually, and if you have an hour to kill you might want to check it out.

But anyways…

Gwynn got off to a very hot start this season, and as recently as a couple weeks ago carried a .400+ batting average.  His hot start has translated into more playing time than one would expect out of the 25th man on the roster at the start of the season.

Obviously, Gwynn’s batting average has fallen off a bit.  He’s now hitting .345.  The thing is, he’s still getting the majority of starts against right-handers over Gabe Gross and/or Corey Hart, who are both superior players.

What Gwynn is doing right now, both in batting average and on-base percentage, is something he has never done in his professional career.  Until he repeated AAA, he never really had carried a respectable OBP for someone with zero power.  He’s had 55 at-bats this season, and while it’s apparent that he has improved, it’s obvious that he isn’t as good as his small-sample numbers.

People who are in support of more playing time for Gwynn argue the following:   He has speed, great defense, stolen base ability and the potentialto post a good OBP.  Also, he’s a “prototypical lead-off hitter.”

He does have decent speed, and he does appear to be the Brewers best defensive outfielder (I was stunned when he gunned down David Wright in New York at second base).   But Hart is faster than Gwynn and has had more success in his career stealing bases than Gwynn.  Gross and Hart bothhave higher career OBPs than Gwynn.  Gwynn’s defensive edge doesn’t make up for the advantages the other two have offensively.

Corey Hart was supposed to get the majority of starts in right field this season (at least that’s what we were led to believe).  Well things changed a bit when he injured his wrist, and he has lost his power stroke for the time being.  But he started the other night against a lefty, and he appears to be healthy again.  If that is the case, his playing time needs to increase.

Many see this issue boiling down to Gross vs. Gwynn, as they are both left-handed outfielders off the bench.  Let’s compare numbers.

Gross career: .247/.352/.405

Gross 2007: .222/.379/.467

Gwynn career: .295/.333/.356

Gwynn 2007: .345/.410/.418

First of all, keep in mind that neither player has gotten many major league at-bats.  Gross has 474 ABs in four seasons while Gwynn has just 132 ABs in two seasons.  But there are some indicators in there.

First of all, Gross has a .222 batting average and a .379 OBP.  That is, in a word, insane.  At this rate, if he can even raise his batting average to .250 (not unrealistic; he hit .274 in 208 ABs for the Brewers last year) he’ll be OBPing at .400.

Second of all, Gwynn’s .410 OBP this season is being held up by his .367 average.  So what it comes down to is, if you think Gwynn will hit .360 all year and you think Gross will hit .230 all year, Gwynn is your choice.  Since neither one will happen, here’s hoping that Yost sees Gross as the more valuable option sooner rather than later.

That, and playing Corey Hart more.

Posted by Steve 

Not to jinx anything, but Bill Schroeder said on FSN tonight that the Brewers have used a Major League-low 26 players this season.  Last year at this time the Brewers had used 49.  If you’re looking for more reasons why they are in first, health is definitely a big one.

Edit:  The Brewers used 49 players total last season.  Either I misheard the FSN guys or they said it incorrectly.  Still though, that’s a drastic difference.

Posted by Steve 

I made it obvious that I didn’t like the way Ned Yost handled his bullpen the other night (the Shouse-Turnbow fiasco) but I thought his moves in today’s game were perfect.

Sheets was at 102 pitches after seven innings and had a 2-1 lead.  The Brewers scored one run in the top of the eighth, giving them a two-run cushion.  Rather than sending in Turnbow, Yost gave Sheets a chance to go out and pitch through the eighth.

A couple things came into play here.  Sheets had been throwing a good game to that point; allowing one run, striking out eight and walking just one.  While he looked better Tuesday than Monday, Turnbow had still blown two straight games.  Finally, that insurance run gave the team a slight margin for error.

Yost seemed to take all these factors into account and decided to send Sheets out for the eighth.  He got the first two outs, but then gave up a run on back-to-back hits.  It was clear that Sheets needed to leave the game, but rather than going to Turnbow for the last out (in yet another pressure situation) he went to his closer to get four outs.  Cordero, who hadn’t even pitched yet on the road trip, came in, got out of the eighth, and then closed it out in the ninth.

Yost did a good job letting his starter try to shorten the game without taking too big of a risk, and he made the right call with Cordero over Turnbow in the eighth.  Just thought I’d give Ned some props after calling him out the other day.

———————–

Looking ahead to Minnesota, the Brewers luck out in pitching match-ups once again.  Santana just pitched Friday, so the Crew won’t see him.  The Twins are reeling a bit, as they have lost seven of their last eight.  Hopefully some home cookin’, a slumping team and some decent pitching match-ups will make for a series win.

Posted by Steve

I’ve heard a lot of people say that this upcoming road trip will “tell us a lot” about the Brewers. That the NL Central is weak, and the Brewers really haven’t played anyone yet. In fact, many articles have been written over the past few days, on both local and national levels, implying that the Brewers still have to prove themselves.

My reaction to that is the Brewers have already told us plenty. I get irritated when people take something away from Milwaukee because they play in a bad division. Can we even tell if the NL Central is a good or bad division yet? They’ve been playing each other for the last three weeks. This doesn’t seem to matter to people though. The AL East has been terrible so far, but you don’t see anyone taking anything away from the Red Sox.

Baseball is not a sport in which to “make a statement,” but that is exactly what so many people still need to see before admitting that a team with a 24-10 record might actually be good. The truth is, the Brewers could fall flat on their faces against NY and Philly and still make the playoffs easily. Just because this trip is in the center-of-the-universe East Coast doesn’t mean these series are any more or less important than the Brewers’ trips to Florida or Houston or Chicago. Sure it would be nice to beat the pants off the Mets and Phillies, but not because it would make a statement.

As far as the Mets series is concerned, I like the way things stack up. While starting pitching match-ups can be deceiving, Suppan vs. Sosa is a decided advantage in the Brewers favor. Same for Saturday with Sheets vs. Pelfrey and Sunday with Capuano vs. Perez. Obviously the Mets can hit a ton, so we’ll see if that makes up for their lack of quality starting pitching (this sentence is the Mets’ season in a nutshell, essentially).

This stretch will be a tough one, with 13 of the next 16 on the road. The .700 winning percentage won’t last much longer, but if they can play .500 baseball from now until the end of May I’ll be very happy.

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On a personal note, I finished the last assignment of my college career this afternoon. I am officially done with school. I graduate tomorrow, and while that’s not as big of a deal to me as it is to some, it sure feels great to be finished with all that freaking schoolwork. My senior project just about drove me to the point of no return. Next comes the job hunt… But I don’t have to really worry about that for at least two days.  Ova and out.