Posted by Steve
As the TGJ thread at brewerfan approaches its 18th page, I have decided to bring my opinion here. Anything at bf is pretty much lost among the mass of posts anyways. The arguments have spiraled into the likes of stocks vs. bonds, Russell Branyan and Scott Podsednik. It’s pretty amusing actually, and if you have an hour to kill you might want to check it out.
But anyways…
Gwynn got off to a very hot start this season, and as recently as a couple weeks ago carried a .400+ batting average. His hot start has translated into more playing time than one would expect out of the 25th man on the roster at the start of the season.
Obviously, Gwynn’s batting average has fallen off a bit. He’s now hitting .345. The thing is, he’s still getting the majority of starts against right-handers over Gabe Gross and/or Corey Hart, who are both superior players.
What Gwynn is doing right now, both in batting average and on-base percentage, is something he has never done in his professional career. Until he repeated AAA, he never really had carried a respectable OBP for someone with zero power. He’s had 55 at-bats this season, and while it’s apparent that he has improved, it’s obvious that he isn’t as good as his small-sample numbers.
People who are in support of more playing time for Gwynn argue the following: He has speed, great defense, stolen base ability and the potentialto post a good OBP. Also, he’s a “prototypical lead-off hitter.”
He does have decent speed, and he does appear to be the Brewers best defensive outfielder (I was stunned when he gunned down David Wright in New York at second base). But Hart is faster than Gwynn and has had more success in his career stealing bases than Gwynn. Gross and Hart bothhave higher career OBPs than Gwynn. Gwynn’s defensive edge doesn’t make up for the advantages the other two have offensively.
Corey Hart was supposed to get the majority of starts in right field this season (at least that’s what we were led to believe). Well things changed a bit when he injured his wrist, and he has lost his power stroke for the time being. But he started the other night against a lefty, and he appears to be healthy again. If that is the case, his playing time needs to increase.
Many see this issue boiling down to Gross vs. Gwynn, as they are both left-handed outfielders off the bench. Let’s compare numbers.
Gross career: .247/.352/.405
Gross 2007: .222/.379/.467
Gwynn career: .295/.333/.356
Gwynn 2007: .345/.410/.418
First of all, keep in mind that neither player has gotten many major league at-bats. Gross has 474 ABs in four seasons while Gwynn has just 132 ABs in two seasons. But there are some indicators in there.
First of all, Gross has a .222 batting average and a .379 OBP. That is, in a word, insane. At this rate, if he can even raise his batting average to .250 (not unrealistic; he hit .274 in 208 ABs for the Brewers last year) he’ll be OBPing at .400.
Second of all, Gwynn’s .410 OBP this season is being held up by his .367 average. So what it comes down to is, if you think Gwynn will hit .360 all year and you think Gross will hit .230 all year, Gwynn is your choice. Since neither one will happen, here’s hoping that Yost sees Gross as the more valuable option sooner rather than later.
That, and playing Corey Hart more.
