Monthly Archives: June 2007

Posted by Steve

Once again Jack Zduriencik plays it close to the vest.  The Brewers selected first baseman Matt LaPorta out of the University of Florida with the seventh pick.  LaPorta had not been mentioned in connection with the Brewers anywhere, which is a testament to how hush-hush the Brewers are with their draft picks.

Jack Z admitted they ”thought out of the box” on this pick.  You can listen to his interview, along with Doug Melvin’s and Matt LaPorta’s here.  Jack Z said he knew La Porta would be there.  He called LaPorta one of the best hitters and one of the best power hitters.  That said, this was definitely a shocker.  The ESPN analysts were sure surprised, anyhow.

A couple interesting things.  The Brewers will use LaPorta in left field.  He’s been strictly a first baseman over the last couple seasons, and scouts have shown concerns about whether he’d even be able to play first base.  It sounds like he won’t be good defensively, but if he can hold his own his bat will be good enough to play anywhere.  The Brewers apparently worked him out in left and were convinced.

Another intriguing twist is that LaPorta is, indeed, represented by Scott Boras.  It will be interesting to watch the negotiations unfold, as the Brewers have not worked with Boras in years past.  I’m not overly concerned, mainly because LaPorta would have likely gotten less than 7th-slot money if he had gone where most projected anyways (end of round one).

I was surprised at first, but after reading about him more, I definitely like the pick for a couple reasons.  First of all, I’m glad it wasn’t another high school pitcher.  Second of all, LaPorta has serious power, which the Brewers system was definitely lacking.  Also LaPorta seems anxious to sign, so that’s also something he has going for him.  Finally, he’s a college player, and at 22 he’s as close to the majors as you get.  He should be in Milwaukee before Hardy, Weeks and Fielder reach free agency.

A couple eye-opening stats on LaPorta, which really sold me on him.  He led the NCAA with a .582 on-base percentage.  WOW.  His full line was .402/.582/.817.  That’s pretty sick.  He has improved every year, and has cut down on his strikeouts every year as well (just 16 whiffs this season).  He definitely fits the moneyball strategy of drafting players based on performance rather than projection.

Photo taken from alligator.org

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Other Brewer Picks

Round 3 (101) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Louisiana Lafayette

Round 4 (131) Eric Farris, 2B, Loyola Merrimount

Round 5(161) Caleb Gindl, CF, Pace HS (Florida)

Top five rounds are in the books.  Interesting to see that Jack Z’s first three picks are all college hitters before grabbing the athletic center fielder in the fifth round.  I like the thinking with grabbing the catcher, and Lucroy sounds like a pretty good one.  He’s pegged as a line-drive hitter with decent power, a pretty good arm and good defensive skills. Farris looks like another line-drive hitter with good athleticism and stolen-base ability.

Somewhat strange that the Brewers haven’t selected a pitcher yet, but I think we’ll see them take a bunch of high school pitchers over the next ten rounds or so.  I’m not a huge fan of the high school pitcher in the first round, but later in the draft there is less financial risk involved.

MLB.com has scouting videos on all these players, by the way.

Posted by Steve

Less than an hour away now, and there are a couple shifts once again.  Baseball America is reporting that the Royals have switched off of Vitters and will take Moustakas with the second pick.  The Cubs will then take Vitters.  Darn.

Also a name we’re all of a sudden seeing associated with the Brewers is high school catcher Devin Mesoraco.  I’m still thinking they’ll take Parker or Aumont, and I’d prefer Parker.

One very interesting take is in Keith Law’s mock draft (no link, ESPN Insider).  He actually has the Brewers taking high-profile Boras client Matt Wieters.  I’d be very, very surprised if this happened, but it would be exciting.

To give you an idea of what the Brewers would be dealing with if they took Wieters, Moustakas or Porcello, here’s a very interesting article by John Heyman of Sports Illustrated about Scott Boras and the amazing impact he’s had on the draft.

Posted by Steve

The draft is less than 24 hours away, and apparently there has been an interesting development that could drastically change the shape of the first round.  Jonathan Mayo reports in his draft blog that the Royals will likely not select high school pitcher Rick Porcello with the second pick after all.  Apparently the Boras factor has turned the Royals off of Porcello.  It will be interesting to see how far he falls, and whether a team decides to meet his demands and dissuade him from his commitment to North Carolina.

Mayo says that the Royals are now deciding between high school sluggers Josh Vitters and Mike Moustakas.  If they decide to take Vitters it could throw a wrench in a lot of teams’ plans.

Before the Royals switched off of Porcello, the Cubs appeared set to take Vitters.  With him gone, it’s hard to say what they’ll do.  The Pirates were hoping the Cubs would take Wieters so they could select Vitters.  Both the Cubs and Pirates are now big question marks in this draft.

Furthermore, both the Orioles and Nationals have said to be interested in Aumont, but likely as a second or third choice.  If that happens there’s a good chance that Moustakas or Wieters will fall to the Brewers.  I’m imagining something like this:

1. Devil Rays: David Price

2. Royals: Josh Vitters

3. Cubs: Jarrod Parker (with the ownership change the Cubs may have to pass on Wieters)

4. Pirates: Beau Mills

5. Orioles: Ross Detwiler

6. Nationals: Rick Porcello

7. Brewers: Mike Moustakas

In this scenario both Moustakas and Aumont are available to the Brewers.  I would be pretty disappointed if the Brewers selected Aumont when Moustakas or even Wieters was available.  Also in this scenario Wieters would be available.  It will be interesting to see how far their affiliation with Lord Boras drops them.

One thing that I didn’t mention in yesterday’s overview:  MLB moved up the signing deadline to August 15, which will have a huge impact on how teams draft.  Prior to this rule teams had nearly a year to negotiate with draft picks before they re-entered the draft.  With only about two months, it gives Boras less leverage.  It’s why, unlike years past, I wouldn’t rule out the Brewers selecting a Boras client.  I also think the Brewers would take Wieters before Porcello, simply because Porcello can use college as leverage.  Wieters has used up all four years of eligibility and would need to play independent ball for a year if he held out.

I’m getting pretty pumped for the draft with all of this late goings-on, and I’m hoping the Brewers don’t let me down.  In case you didn’t know, the draft is live tomorrow on ESPN 2 at 1:00 central.

Image of Lord Boras taken from jonathanblazon.com

Posted by Steve

The MLB Draft has never had the hype and hoopla of the NFL or NBA drafts, mainly because many of the players drafted never even reach the big league level, and those that do usually don’t reach the bigs for a few years. This year, however, will be the first time the draft is televised nationally (Thursday on ESPN 2).  As always, before I even get started, brewerfan.net has a cornucopia of information on the draft that I couldn’t even dream of rivaling.  I’m just going for an overview, so check out bf if you want more in-depth information.  Also see the Baseball America link.  Back to the show…

Many major league teams use free agency, or even trades, as a main way to acquire talent.  For the Brewers, the draft is far and away the most important method of getting talent.  It’s also pretty much the only way for them to acquire a superstar.  Look no further than the current Brewers roster to see how important the draft is and how successful the Brewers have been recently: Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Tony Gwynn Jr., Ben Sheets and Geoff Jenkins are all former Brewers draft picks.  Ben Sheets has been an ace for about five years, and Prince Fielder is on the brink of super-duperstardom.  If either of these players were on the open market the Brewers would have no chance of affording them.

Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik has a “best player available” philosophy towards the draft, which in theory is the best method.  While Jack Z has had great success with position players, he has had less success with pitchers.  If the Brewers select a high school pitcher in the first round this year, it will be the third time doing so in four years.

The Brewers drafted Mark Rogers in 2004 over Homer Bailey (ranked ahead of Rogers by most) and Jeremy Sowers.  Sowers has been in the major leagues for almost a year.  Bailey is considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and is actually set to make his first big league start this weekend for the Reds.  Meanwhile Rogers underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season.

In last year’s draft the Brewers selected prep righty Jeremy Jeffress.  Jeffress only recently made his first appearance outside of extended spring training this season.  While he certainly could turn out to be a great pick, he has a long way to go.

This year the Brewers hold the seventh overall pick.  They’ll need to make it count because they lost their second round pick to the Cardinals when they signed Jeff Suppan.  For this reason the Brewers won’t make their second selection until the third round.

The draft is just a couple days away, but at this point the first round is hardly predictable.  Unlike some recent years where the first five to ten picks have been fairly predictable, the 2007 draft gets pretty murky after the second pick.

The first pick belongs to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and it is widely expected to be Vanderbilt LHP David Price.  He has the arm and frame scouts drool over– he’s 6’5″ and he works regularly in the low to mid-90s.

Most expect the Kansas City Royals to take prep RHP Rick Porcello with the second pick.  Porcello is another tall body who throws in the mid-90s with a smooth delivery.  He’s a great prospect as a high schooler.

After this it gets much less clear.  The wildcard in all of this is Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters.  On talent alone Wieters would be the first or second pick in this draft; he is considered the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer.  But Wieters is represented by Sith Lord Scott Boras, and there are rumors of him demanding a huge signing bonus.  For this reason he could go third overall or he could fall all the way to the middle or even end of the first round.

It appears that high school third baseman Josh Vitters will be selected third or fourth by the Cubs or Pirates, and that Missouri State lefty Ross Detwiler will be shortly behind him.

This brings us to some candidates for the Brewers selection:

Mike Moustakas, Prep 3B

Moustakas has shot up the draft boards in the last couple months and projects as a great power lefty hitter.  His position is a little unclear, as he could end up at first base or even catcher, but his bat should play anywhere.

Jason Heyward, Prep Outfielder

Heyward projects as a high average power hitter.  Like Moustakas, he hits from the left side.  He would be a welcome addition to a Brewers organization short on power bats.

Phillippe Aumont, Prep RHP

Aumont is a huge pitcher (6’7″, 215 lbs) who is lauded for his power and “stuff.”  The knack on him is he has inconsistent mechanics, which should be a warning flag for teams.

Jarrod Parker, Prep RHP

Parker is not a big pitcher (6’1, 175), but doesn’t have the red flags on mechanics that some prep pitchers have.  He has a fastball in the low 90s and a plus slider.

Daniel Moskos, College LHP

Moskos pitches at Clemson University.  While not overpowering, he works at 88-90 with command of the strike zone.  Interestingly, this has been exactly the type of pitcher Jack Z has avoided:  The safe, projectable pitcher with a ceiling a bit lower.  I’d be a little surprised if they took Moskos, but he’s ranked as the next best college arm after Price and Detwiler.

Madison Bumgarner, Prep LHP

Aside from his funky-fresh name, Bumgarner has a great fastball for a left-hander.  His secondary pitches are not on par with the fastball, but that isn’t enough to drop him far out of the top 10 or so.

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Who I’d like to see

I’d love to see the Brewers add a power bat.  Now that Braun has left the system for Milwaukee, power is a huge need.  I am keeping my fingers crossed for Mike Moustakas, and despite his affiliation to Lord Boras, would like to believe the Brewers would take him if he falls.  The latest rumblings have him off the board before the seven slot, unfortunately.  If they can’t get Moustakas I would like to see them draft Jason Heyward.

Who I think we’ll see

Jack Zduriencik has created a pattern when selecting in the first round.  He almost always takes a guy who will sign quickly.  If it’s a pitcher, he opts for the high-ceiling high school pitcher.  I’m pretty sure it will be Phillippe Aumont.  He’s got a few things going for him:  He’s a boom-or-bust type like Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress, he’s 6’7″ with a power arm and he’s signable.  Plus, he’s Canadian, so you know Doug Melvin and Gord Ash like him.

I’m not too crazy about taking Aumont, though he is certainly an exciting player.  I’d just go for the safer bet of a bat, and there are some quality power hitters that will be available.

One last note

I’d like to see the Brewers select Jordan Zimmerman from UW-Stevens Point with their second selection.  The missed out on the Wisconsin guy in Tony Butler last year, and Zimmerman looks like a great prospect.