Posted by Steve
So here’s some. The Cubs lost, and Matt LaPorta homered on the first pitch he saw in his professional career in Helena.
I picture LaPorta crushing a homer off some poor 18-year-old kid, snapping the bat in half, walking around the bases, and laughing his way out of the stadium in time to catch a flight to West Virginia.
Categories: Uncategorized
Posted by Steve
Since I don’t exactly feel like talking about the Brewers, I will make some non-Brewer observations. Maybe if I ignore their struggles they’ll go away. Or something.
Categories: Uncategorized
Posted by Dan
The Setting: Turnbow walks Molina to open the 8th. He then falls behind Miles (I think) 3-1 before getting him to ground into a double play. Bill says, “Well its an easy game isn’t it? With turnbow’s velocity if he can just throw strikes he’ll be ok.”
Now, I can’t prove this hypothesis, but I am 142% sure I’ve also heard him say this about Turnbow: “It doesn’t matter how hard you throw, if Major League hitters know a fastball is coming and you have to throw a strike, they’re gonna hit it.”(paraphrasing the last part)
Also, he got to say BA’s line this time, “If courtroom drama is your guilty pleasure, then WLMW has got courtside seats for you!”
Categories: Uncategorized
Posted by Dan
There seems to be a concensus that Jeff Suppan has been horrible this season, and I’m sorry to say that I disagree. I will preface this by saying I was happy when they signed Suppan, and I’m probably less disappointed than some. I think the average fan probably set their expectations too high after Suppans post season last year, and the amount of money involved in his contract. Here are some of Suppan’s stats from 2005-2007:
K/9 = 5.2 – 4.8 – 4.5
BB/9 = 2.9 – 3.2 – 3.1
HR/9= 1.10 – 0.98 – 0.78
FIP = 4.48 – 4.68 – 4.49
So, his K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are all very similar. His K-rate has been declining the past 3 years, now to a pedestrian 4.5/9. FIP (stands for Fielder Independant Pitching) is defined by The Hardball Times as, “a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.” For example, in 2005 Suppans FIP of 4.48 exceeded his actual ERA by nearly 1 full run (3.57), which means he pitched more along the lines of a 4.50 ERA than a 3.50 ERA. Suppan is a product of the Cardinals defense, which is better than that of the Brewers. That said, this year his FIP of 4.49 is lower than his actual 5.08 ERA meaning that he’s probably due for the same statistical correction that I correctly predicted for Capuano and Bush (not to toot my own horn).
That said, I still don’t hate the Suppan deal. I trust that Melvin and Antonasio wouldn’t have brought in Suppan if they felt it would cost us the ability to extend some of our better/young players (Sheets, Fielder, Weeks, etc.). I could be wrong about that, though. For the year, Suppan is 24th in MLB in Inning Pitched, and his durability is a big reason he was paid as well as he was. To be anything more than slightly disappointed in Suppan this year, is probably the product of setting expectations too high.
Categories: Uncategorized
Posted by Steve
Well we got our wish, apparently: A trade at the deadline to bolster the bullpen. The only thing is they gave up a slew of pitching prospects for him.
Most notably the Brewers gave up Will Inman, their third round pick in 2005. Inman was considered the Brewers top prospect after Gallardo was called up. Inman made mince meat of the lower minor leagues before struggling a bit in his recent call-up to AA. Inman isn’t the prospect that Yo was, but he wasn’t too far off. He probably project as a number two to number four starter, although some scouts say his ceiling is as a four or five starter.
Thatcher was close to major league ready, and the Padres are actually bringing him to the majors to be their LOOGY. He had very good AAA numbers.
Garrison had come on lately as a prospect. He’s a 20-year old lefty.
Looking at Linebrink a little closer, and it may not be as nice as you’d expect. He was dominant in 2004 and 2005, but not as good last year and especially this year. He has a 3.8 ERA, a 1.222 WHIP and just 5k/9 IP. Not bad numbers for a reliever, but far from elite. The K rate in particular is way down. Another scary split is his home/road rate: Home ERA of 2.1, Road ERA of 6.05.
Linkbrink is also a free agent after this season. He’s probably only the fourth or fifth best reliever on the Brewers right now, although he’s definitely a lot better than Balfour or Spurling.
You can spin this one of two ways: The Brewers gave up their top prospect for a declining reliever, or they got a still-good reliever for a prospect who hit a bit of a wall in AA. You can argue for either side.
To me the wildcard in this whole thing is that Linebrink is a Type A free agent. That means the get a compensatory pick after the first round and a pick from the team that signs Linebrink in the offseason. That second pick is top-15 protected, so theoretically the Brewers could get picks 20 and 38. That is a huge factor in this trade (picks 20 and 38 are both earlier than the slot the Brewers used to select Inman), and Doug Melvin admitted as much. If Linebrink was not a Type A it’s safe to say I would hate this trade. Since he is, and I trust that the Brewers can replace Inman, Garrison and Thatcher, I’m ok with it. It makes the big league club better this year, and it gives them more picks. Not to mention the only time I openly opposed a Doug Melvin trade, he got Francisco Cordero.
Just a little note: The Brewers could potentially have five picks in the top 40 spots or so next season. Cordero is a Type A free agent as well, so the Crew will hopefully restock their system in a big way next June.
Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2007 · Transactions
Posted by Steve
After taking a look at some individual numbers, it’s become pretty clear that Yost needs to change around a couple mainstays in his lineup. Have a look.
J.J. Hardy
Let’s start with the player who carried the Brewers in April and May: J.J. Hardy. Hardy mashed out of the two-hole, and even warranted some starts as a three-hitter. Unfortunately, Hardy hasn’t hit since May, and it’s time for Yost to take notice.
Hardy’s batting average over the last month is .188, and his on-base percentage in July is a miserable .232. Hardy definitely has some nice pop for a shortstop, but to this point in his career he’s never carried a solid OBP. Move him down to the six-hole and hope he starts to turn it around.
Johnny Estrada
I don’t normally get very angry watching games, but last night was definitely an exception. I loathe Johnny Estrada as a hitter, and yesterday was pretty much the breaking point. With bases loaded and NOBODY OUT in the 11th inning Estrada came up to bat. I would have preferred Tony Gwynn in that situation, which certainly says a lot about how I feel towards Estrada. Naturally he hit into the 3-2-3 DP and the Brewers failed to score in the inning.
This is Estrada in a nutshell. He’s valued highly because he’s a catcher who hits close to .300. Of course when you look a bit closer you see that it’s an empty .300 with an OBP about 20 points higher, and he’s a walking double play. How Estrada ever put up a line of .314/.378/.450 in Atlanta in 2004 is beyond me, but I do know that he isn’t even a shell of that player. He has a .293 OBP this season. Great googly moogly.
I suppose some of my loathing should be directed at Yost, who is ultimately the one who hit him fifth in 57 games this season. It’s a little more understandable lately since Hall’s been out, but Billy is back tomorrow. Estrada should never hit higher than sixth the rest of the season.
Geoff Jenkins
As I not-so-boldly predicted, Jenkins is slumping since he started more against left-handers. I give some props to Yost, as he eventually figured this out and got creative enough to start Tony Graffanino in left a few times against lefties. Either way, Jenkins followed a strong start with a June OPS of .735 and a July OPS of .586. It’s good to get him back in the platoon role and hit him down lower in the order again. Hopefully we see the second-half hot streak from Jenks that never happened last season.
Corey Hart
Hart has struggled mightily in the last few weeks. His OBP is just .261 in 46 second-half plate appearances. I don’t think it would be a bad idea to slide Hart down to the two-hole for a couple weeks and see what happens. I see he has a day off tonight, which doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
Tony Gwynn
He’s horrible. Get him out of here and send his .623 OPS with him. Bring back Gross.
Rickie Weeks
I’m going to go the other way with this one. After a horrible slump, Weeks has looked much better in his last few games. Despite only three hits so far in the second half, Weeks has an OBP of .458. Obviously this is a very small sample size, but I think it shows that many have overblown Weeks’ struggles.
“Publicly benching” Weeks was a mistake by Yost, but luckily he hasn’t quite put that into practice. Weeks is in the lineup again tonight, and he’s leading off. The Brewers absolutely need to get Weeks going again. He’s such a dynamic player when he’s right. He’s taking some walks, and usually that’s a sign of busting out of a slump.
My Lineup
I know it seems like I want to move everyone down in the order, but that’s not totally the case. Here’s what I’d like to see for the next couple weeks.
Against RHP
Against LHP
I want to comment that I might still like Hart more long-term in the lead-off spot than Weeks, but I think this is a good bet for the time being.
Braun looks like a mainstay in the three-hole, as he is out of his mind at the moment. Fielder’s in a home run drought a bit, but he’s still getting hits. I’m not worried about Prince.
Looking over them again, I actually feel very good about this lineup. The main thing (that I’m not convinced Yost will do) is moving Hardy from the two-hole and Estrada from the five-hole.
Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2007
Posted by Dan
Pitching Matchups:
Monday – Capuano vs Harang
Tuesday – Gallardo vs Belisle
Wednesday – Suppan vs Lohse
Thursday – Bush vs Livingston
Monday: Capuano may have finally broken out of his funk (7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5K) in his last start. He’s 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA at the Great American Ballpark, and should neutralize the Reds power left handed bats (Griffey and Dunn mostly). Harang, however, is just a stud. The Crew is 9th in the league in K’s, and I don’t see anyway the Crew doesn’t whiff 8-10 times tomorrow, and being on the road, I think the Reds get this one.
Tuesday:
Gallardo has been awesome in his starts this year (2.13 ERA in 25.1 IP). Belisle… hasn’t. He has a 5.96 Home ERA this season, and is allowing nearly 1.5 HR/9 at the GAB. I think the Crew takes this one and probably give Reds fans a few souveniers.
Wednesday:
Suppan has made 2 decent starts in a row for the Crew (5 IP/3 ER and 6 IP, 3 ER). I’m going to hope Suppan turns things around at GAB however. His line in 4 starts involves a 7.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Lohse is actually pitching slightly better than his 5-12, 4.71 line indicates, and nowhere is that more evident then at home. He has a 2.67 ERA there this year. I still don’t buy it, and if Suppan can give them a quality start I think (hope?) they take this one.
Thursday:
In his last 3 starts, Bush has a 3.32 ERA. He’s been pitching well for a while now, with 6 QS in his past 9 turns (2 of the non QS were 6 IP, 4 ER outings). For the Reds, Bobby Livingston gets his 5th start. In 200 Innings at AAA, Livingston posted an unimpressive 4.60/1.40 ERA and WHIP. Hopepully, the Crew can rough him up a bit and take this series.
Prediction: I realize that has the Brewers taking 3 out of 4 on the road, which seems like a tall order (19-26 on the road this season), but the Reds are bad. Cinncinati’s .414 Winning % is 2nd last in the league. Even though all signs point to a series win here, I’m not going to complain with a split. All we can hope, is for David Eckstein to roll up his sleeves and sweep the Cubbies.
Categories: Uncategorized
Posted by Steve
Lord Voldemench. I couldn’t find one of Mench without the hat, but it’s there. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Walked.
Categories: Uncategorized
Posted by Steve
Ann Carroll, we hardly knew you.
But as a tribute, here’s a series preview, Carroll-style.
——————————————————————
Welcome to FSN Wisconsin tonight as your first place Brewers host Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants. This series, of course, is a big one… for your Brewers, as they of course will see… Barry Bonds! Bonds homered twice yesterday against the Cubs to now stand just shy of Hank Aaron’s record. Bonds of course brings extra media coverage, but that’s something that Ned Yowst isn’t worried about concerning himself with.
Yowst is only worried about his Brewers team for the moment, and he says he won’t treat the games any differently. He’s more concerned with keeping the hot streak going, and how to turn around struggling players like veteran leader Jeff Suppan and second baseman Richie Weeks. Suppan was better his last time out, allowing just two runs over… six…. innings.
After yesterday’s day off, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy are rested and rarin to go. The Brewers will need them if they are going to beat the pesky Giants tonight.
Well that’s all for now. Stay tuned to FSN Wisconsin tonight after the game for “Brewers Live!” with Craig… Coshznun and Davey Nelson. Until then, let’s send it down to Brian and… uh… (someone off-camera whispers “Bill”) Bill! Guys?
*stares robotically into camera*
Brian: Thanks Ann! Capuano and Sheets had groan injuries. Growin injuries. Groan.
Bill: Well, that’s tough to take with two strikes when you’re too dependent on the home run ball and don’t hit to the opposite field, in-knee pardner?
Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2007
Posted by Steve
Turns out the Sheets news wasn’t as good as we hoped. There was a slight tear in the finger, so they’re saying it will be 4-6 weeks before he returns.
There’s no way around it; this is a huge blow to the Brewers. Benny has been his old self by dominating hitters and anchoring the rotation. He pitched deep into games, so his absence will probably wear on the bullpen. Yo is stepping in for him, which means that he might reach his innings max (or exceed it) if the Brewers aren’t careful.
It might seem like the most obvious solution to bridging the gap for Sheets’ return is to pick up another starter, but I don’t think that will be easy (or necessary). Villanueva and Parra can start if need be. If they can get a solid reliever (I’m pretty sure my longing for Akinori Otsuka is well-known by now) it will be a big boost.
This is the first time in years that the Brewers actually have depth, and it’s paying off in a big way. I’m sure most remember last year when the Crew lost both Sheets and Tomo Ohka for a long stretch. The Brewers are a long ways in the right direction from sending out Dana Eveland/Zach Jackson/Ben Hendrickson to get hammered every fifth day.
Sheets is out long enough that his production won’t be replaced fully, but this hurts less than it would in years past.
I’m trying to stay on the bright side, as this is pretty much a bummer. How’s this… The team’s on a nice roll, the Cubs finally lost and maybe Sheets will be more rested for a playoff run.
Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2007
