Monthly Archives: July 2007

Sheets to DL

Posted on July 16, 2007 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Well it seems like the Brewers avoided disaster with Ben Sheets’ injury, as his X-Rays and MRI revealed no serious damage.  He’s obviously still in pain though, because he said he can’t grip a baseball.  The team put him on the DL today.

They called up Manny Parra and Grant Balfour to fill in for Sheets and Chris Spurling, who is attending to family business.

I like these moves, but if Sheets is out for more than a few starts the Brewers are really in trouble.  The team has been largely injury free, but these little ones to Hall, Sheets, etc. are starting to add up a bit.

Balfour has pretty much dominated AAA hitters.  He had a 1.87 ERA and a 68/15 K/BB ratio in 43 1/3 innings.  The walks are a little high, but the strikeouts are very high too.  If there’s a bright spot, it will be nice to see Balfour a little to assess him at the major league level before the trade deadline.

Parra has re-emerged as a serious prospect after being plagued by injury for a few seasons.  His perfect game in just his second AAA start was well documented as well.

It will be interesting to see what they do to fill in for Sheets’ starts.  Wishfully thinking that Sheets only misses two starts, I’d think Parra could take them before falling back to the bullpen.  I’m going to assume that Yo will slide back into the rotation though.  He’s clearly the most talented option, but he’s really only got about eight or nine starts left this season before the Brewers are in the “Prior Zone.”  Yost was quoted the other day as saying he’d love to be able to wait until August to move Yo back, so I guess we’ll see.  I’d also consider Villanueva an option to make a couple spot starts as well.  Stay tuned…

 Hope all turns out well with Spurling, and get well soon Sheeter.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007, Transactions

Heh…

Posted on July 15, 2007 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Oh, you crazy Chicagoans…

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Posted in Uncategorized

Brewers vs. Rockies, Game 2

Posted on July 14, 2007 by | 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

Not doing anything tonight, so I decided to blog another game. Hopefully we’ll have a better outcome than the last time I tried this. I shouldn’t be tied up here too long with Sheets on the hill.

  • The Cubs won yet again today, beating up on the (apparently) declining Roy Oswalt. They’re really playing well, so let’s win and keep the lead at 3.5. Sheets vs Rodrigo Lopez is a decided advantage in Milwaukee’s favor, but as we saw yesterday the Rockies have some good hitters.
  • I’d like to comment on “Sheets the stopper.” People keep citing his 6-2 record after Brewer losses. Sure it’s impressive, but he’s 10-4 overall. He’s just a good pitcher, and the team has happened to lose eight times in games preceding his starts. It’s not like he raises his game or anything after the team loses.
  • Shoddy start. Spilborghs grounds up the middle and Weeks acrobatically chucks it into the dugout.
  • Warning you now… I just realized Tony Gwynn is starting today, so there are sure to be some rants in this post. Especially if he tries a bunt base hit.
  • Either the Miller Park radar gun is dialed up, or Sheets is. He hit 99 mph against Garrett Atkins.
  • Weeks makes a great play and makes up for his error. Nice job by Sheets to strand the runner. Time to hit against Rodrigo Lopez.
  • A Ryan Braun walk seems as good a time as any to say that he is crazy-amazing right now. I can’t believe how good he’s been. If he avoids a big slump he’ll get the ROY despite missing about two months.
  • Eh, Prince Ks. On to the second.
  • Quick 1-2-3 inning for Sheets.
  • A pretty pathetic second for the Brewers. Estrada and Jenkins quickly ground out, while Gwynn works the count full before powerfully popping out to the catcher.
  • Spilborghs crushes one out to left with two outs. Sheets kept coming at him with two-strike fastballs, and it cost him. Kaz Matsui ends the inning with a “Tony Gwynn” (popping out on a bunt).
  • Quick side note: I was glancing at ESPN.com, and the poll question is: Was Roger Clemens’ seventh start (5.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 K, L vs. Devil Rays) worth a pro-rated $840,909 salary? The best part: Nine percent answered ‘yes.’
  • Once again Bill pulls out his “tough to take with two strikes” bit on a strike three call to Weeks. Thing is, the ball was inside. The ump blew the call. Did Bill Schroeder ever take a walk?
  • So far nothing doing against All-World Rodrigo Lopez. On to the fourth, 1-0 Rockies.
  • This home plate ump is baffling so far. Sheets just froze Helton on a 2-2 curve right over the plate, and Chris Guccione just sat there. This after calling out Weeks on ball four and calling a strike at Tony Gwynn’s shins.
  • I’m pretty sure I’m never blogging a game again. Sheets hurt his hand somehow and has left the game. I really, REALLY hope this isn’t a Joel Zumaya tendon rupture. I’m feeling a little sick right now. They just cannot afford to lose Sheets for any extended amount of time.
  • This isn’t a game where you’d want to see Yo, but he’s in. Struck out Helton, gets Tulowitzki to fly out on a nice catch by Gwynn.
  • Man, this is so crappy about Sheets. I don’t even care about this game anymore. Ugh. I’m trying to think of any type of injury that wouldn’t force Sheets to miss more than two starts, but I’m not coming up with anything.
  • Not that I care anymore, but I thought it was worth mentioning that the Brewers don’t have a hit after four innings against Rodrigo Lopez.
  • “Well if courtroom drama’s your guilty pleasure, WMLW’s got your courtside seat.” And if it’s not, well, you won’t be watching WMLW.
  • Wow… What should have been a Rickie Weeks error turns into a double play due to J.J. Hardy. On to the fifth of this suddenly meaningless game.
  • I have no faith in any hitters after the four-spot in the Brewers’ lineup tonight. Estrada hitting fifth continues to be a joke. Gwynn sucks. Jenkins looks like he’s slumping. Ben Sheets is hurt. Rodrigo Lopez has a no-hitter after five innings. Bill Schroeder is calling the game. The Cubs keep winning. The Bucks signed Mo Williams to an outrageous conntract. I can’t find a job. This is terrible.
  • I just got a text message from Dan. “What if Sheets is done for a while and we get no-hit by Rodrigo Lopez?”
  • At least Yo is good. 1-2-3 inning. On to the sixth. Will they get a hit? I’m on the edge of my seat.
  • Thank goodness for Corey Hart. Homerun to left… I was sure Spilborghs caught that. He missed it by an inch.
  • Yo is dealing. Who knows, maybe he’ll be back in the rotation sooner than we thought if Sheets is out for a while…. That sentence saddens me deeply.
  • Well… This is far from official… But a poster at brewerfan reported that Jim Powell reported that Sheets has a blister. I would be overjoyed if it was, but it didn’t really seem like a blister when they were looking at it. Sheets was wincing in pain.
  • Ok… Leadoff walk from Braun. Time to cash in a couple.
  • Jeez. Prince bloops out to left. I’m feeling a double play from Estrada, which probably means Braun will be stealing.
  • Quick update again. Brewers.com is reporting that the injury is believed to be a blister. I hope so, but I’m not convinced.
  • Good news for the Brewers as 1:1 k/bb ratio Jorge Julio is warming for the Rockies.
  • A leadoff walk stranded at first base. Wunderbar.
  • Bill just said, “Don’t make a mistake inside to this guy,” referring to Yorvit Torrealba. Torrealba has a .709 career OPS. You wouldn’t be basing too much off his three-hit game yesterday, would you Bill?
  • Yo did an awesome job. If I weren’t so worried about Sheets I’d probably be excited about it. Unfortunately Gwynn, Weeks and pitcher’s spot are up this inning.
  • Julio’s in. That’s the good news. The bad news is he’s been better with Colorado. The bad news is also Rodrigo Lopez allowing one hit and one run in seven innings.
  • Probably three fly-outs looked way out off the bat tonight for the Brewers. Tony Gwynn just hit a ball further than I’ve ever seen him hit a ball, and it was lazily caught on the track. Frustrating.
  • Weeks walks with one out. I don’t totally get Counsell hitting here rather than Gross or Graffanino.
  • Big swipe of second by Weeks.
  • Counsell flies out to mid-center and Weeks aggresively tags up. He would have been dead to rights if the throw was on target.
  • Official word from the clubhouse is a finger sprain. That seems right. Now is it really a sprain, or is it a tear/rupture? Nervous…
  • Hart strikes out, stranding Weeks on third. Guldarnit.
  • I’ve already googled “distal finger sprain.” Apparently that doesn’t tell us much before we hear the severity of the sprain, but if it’s not a tear it… doesn’t… sound… too… terrible. Also “distal” means furthest away from the palm, so apparently he sprained the joint closest to his nail on his middle finger.
  • Ok, Cordero on for the top of the ninth. It would really stink if the Brewers lost this game.
  • Somewhere this season I started to get nervous when Cordero comes in. I hate when he gets to full counts; I always feel like his leadoff walks will score. (As I say this he strikes out Jamie Carroll on a full count slider… Good).
  • Nice work from Cordero. Now Hardy, Braun and Fielder. Sounds like a walk-off win.
  • Hardy meagerly pops out in foul territory. He has really not hit for well over a month now.
  • AAH! Somebody close the panels! Braun crushed it to left and it was caught near the wall.
  • Fielder laces a two-out single. Well, at least Estrada can’t ground into a double play.
  • Brutal. Estrada waves at a ball in the dirt. Your fifth hitter, ladies and gents. Now the Rockies have their mashers up. Bad vibes all over the place.
  • Turnbow off to a good start striking out Atkins. Better yet it was with a nasty breaking ball. If he has that working he’s tough to hit. Unfortunately Todd Helton is good at hitting.
  • Ugh. Four pitch walk to Helton… 3-0 to Tulo! DANGER! DANGER!
  • Double play! Wow, what a turnaround.
  • And then on the first pitch Jenkins crushes a double to left.
  • This is one situation where I don’t really mind Gwynn hitting. He’ll try to get Jenkins to third. That said if he decides to bunt and pops it up I’ll scream.
  • Dan’s text: “We could buy two more months of Gwynn here with a hit.” My response: “Or Aki Otsuka.”
  • Nicely done by Gwynn getting the grounder to the right side. Interesting move here by Yost in pinch hitting Graffy for Weeks. Can’t say I blame him, Weeks has been struggling. Possible squeeze? 1-0 count opportune time.
  • Ha! Tony Graffanino did what he needed to do, and not an inch more. Bloops one over a drawn in infield for the game winning single. Nice win!
  • Couple classic moments in the post game. First, Prince Fielder jumps behind Graffy during his interview yelling “YEAH! YEAH!” Second, Brian Anderson signs off by saying very enthusiastically, “Coming up next… Smallville!”
  • Sheets injury or not, this was a nice win. It would have been uncool to have the lead drop to 2.5 games over the surging Cubs. Win the series tomorrow, and please Ben, GET WELL SOON!

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007

Cappy should be DFA’d!

Posted on July 14, 2007 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Dan

Of course not really, but I’ve seen various suggestions on messageboards which want him moved to the pen, removed from the rotation and put in mop-up duty. Someone even suggested he become our LOOGY! This guy has a 4.00 ERA over the past two seasons. I (correctly) predicted Bush’s numbers would improve (they did), and now let me do it with Capuano. Here are some of his stats, from 2005, 2006 and this year.

ERA: 3.99 — 4.03 — 5.13

K/9: 7.23 — 7.08 — 7.68

K/BB: 1.93 — 3.70 — 1.94

HR/9: 1.25 — 1.20 — .90

BB/9: 3.74 — 1.91 — 3.95

Strand Rate: 77.3 — 72.4 — 65.6

A few things, first of all, like Bush earlier this year, Capuano is simply allowing too many runners to score. His 65.6 Strand Rate is roughly 10% lower than his career norms. Also, his 1.38 WHIP in 2005 should have indicated that he may have pitched slightly worse than his 3.99 ERA indicated, but fans may have higher expectations because of that year. Give Cappy some time, if you look at his secondary stats you can see his performance is VERY similar to 2005, and the numbers should “regress to the mean” to use a fancy term. Lastly, though fans thinks it will only get worse, citing his poor second half splits from the past three years, consider this (if you attribute his poor 2nd halves to wearing down): His IP at the All-Star Break since 2005 have been 121.1, 129 and this year, 79. So I dont think that trend has to continue this year.

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Posted in Uncategorized

Progress for the sake of progress: DanandSteve.com

Posted on July 13, 2007 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve 

Some more random thoughts.

  • By now you’ve probably noted the change in the domain name at Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turnin’ Up the Heat!  Since Dan became an author I wanted to change the name, but I figured the full name of the blog was too long/complicated.  Instead I went with the easier-to-remember, slightly-flamboyant-undertoned name of danandsteve.com.  By the way, the old domain of stevealtstadt.wordpress.com will still get you to the site. 
  • Some good news, as it appears Bill Hall’s injury isn’t as serious as the Brewers originally feared.  JS reported that the injury was in fact not a high ankle sprain, but more of a sprain lower on the inside of the ankle.  Hall actually said he hopes to return as soon as he comes off the DL.
  • That’s good news for another reason.  Geoff Jenkins has started against a few left-handers since Hall’s been out (again tonight vs. Jeff Francis), and he simply can’t hit them.  Jenkins has done well in his platoon role this season, and I admit I’m a little worried that more at-bats vs. lefties could send him into one of his patented slumps that we haven’t really seen yet this year.  The sooner Hall returns, the better.
  • I’m anxious to see what the Brewers will do before the trade deadline, since they’re buyers for the first time in about 15 years.  I’d be surprised if they acquired a “big name,” but I’d also be surprised if they completely stood pat.  My guess is Melvin trades a decent prospect or two for a solid bullpen arm.  I’d still like Aki Otsuka, but I’d also consider guys like David Weathers, Damaso Marte or Al Reyes welcome additions.

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Posted in Uncategorized

Mid-Season Awards

Posted on July 12, 2007 by | 1 Comment

AL MVP
Dan: Magglio Ordonez (.367/.446/.604/1.050) — Ordonez is having a career year in 2007, leading the AL in OBP as well as being third in SLG.  Add in that he’s playing for the Tigers, who trail the Angels by 1 game for the best record in baseball and lead the league in Runs and you have the American League MVP.

Steve: Alex Rodriguez  Voters like to give the MVP to a player on a playoff team, but occasionally someone has such a dominant year that he’ll get it no matter what (Ryan Howard).  The Yankees should end up with a winning record, and A-Rod is so far ahead of everyone right now that he’ll get it.

NL MVP
Dan:  Prince Fielder (.284/.376/.620/.996) — The Crew trails the Dodgers by 1/2 game for the best record in the NL, and Fielder is a huge reason for that.   He is leading the NL in HR (29) and is third in OPS.  And though it’s an overrated stat, he trails only Carlos Lee with 70 RBI.

Steve:  Prince Fielder  He’s the first-half MVP.  If he hits 50 homers and the Brewers make the playoffs he’ll get it.  I expect both of those things to happen, so I guess I’m giving it to Prince.

AL Cy Young
Dan:  Erik Bedard (7-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) — Even though he will never win, playing for the 38-49 Orioles, Bedard has been unbelievable this year.  In 121.2 innings, he has 149 strikeouts! That’s good for the highest K/9 rate in baseball (11.02) and his 4.14 K/BB ratio ranks him 9th in baseball.

Steve: Johan Santana, in a shocker.  He already has a 2.75 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 121 innings, which is impressive enough.  You could make an argument for a handful of guys at this point, but I’ll give Johan the nod because I think he’ll end up winning it.  Consider his second-half ERAs for each of the last four seasons.  2.54 in 2006, 1.59 in 2005, 1.21(!!!) in 2004.  He’s lights-out after the All-Star Break, and as always, the reason the Twins can’t be counted out.

NL Cy Young
Dan:  Jake Peavy (9-3, 2.19 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) — This one is a no-brainer, in my opinion. Peavy leads the NL with 125 K in 119 innings, which is good for a K/9 of 9.45 (1st in the NL).   He also has a K/BB ratio of 3.68 (3rd in NL).

Steve: Jake Peavy  He’s the best right-hander in the game, and that will finally come to fruition this season.  He’s been carving up hitters to the tune of a 2.19 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, with 125 strikeouts in 119 innings.

AL Rookie of the Year
Dan:  Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-6, 3.84 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) — He’s been as good as advertised for the best team in baseball.  His 9.25 K/9 is 4th in the AL.

Steve: Jeremy Guthrie  A surprise over massively-hyped Dice-K.  Guthrie currently sports a 2.74 ERA and a stingy 0.91 WHIP.  I’m opting for Guthrie over Matsuzaka because of Dice-K’s tendency to surrender walks in bunches; I think that will keep him from reaching elite status.

NL Rookie of the Year
Dan:  Ryan Braun (.350/.391/.663/1.054) –  Among NL Rookies with 100 PA, Braun leads in OPS, is 4th in HR (the 3 guys ahead of him have 45, 112, and 125 more AB’s), and 3rd in OBP.

Steve:  Ryan Braun  Yeah, it’s the homer in me… But I don’t think it’s a big reach other.  Dan pointed out his freakishly high BABIP, but his main competition is Hunter Pence who also has been “lucky.”  Braun seems to have more power, and he’ll have better opportunities with better hitters around him than Pence.

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Posted in Major League Baseball

Now watch me spin-off Steve’s idea

Posted on July 11, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Dan

In going with the theme of who has been lucky and who has been unlucky, I thought I would look at a few players who are getting lucky (high batting average on balls in play) and some who are getting unlucky (low BABIP). An “average” BABIP is .290-.300 but a player generally established career norms over time that are more personal than that general guideline.

The Unlucky:

1. Richie Sexson (Since 2005): .310–.306–.210

2. Julio Lugo: .330–.335(w/TB)/.281(w/LAD)–.218

3. Jermaine Dye (since 04): .314–.287–.341–.230 (Dye is interesting because after greatly exceeding his career norms last year, he is way short of them this year. Basically, Dye was lucky to be as good as his MVP caliber numbers in 2006 indicated, and he has been unlucky to be as bad as his current .673 OPS indicates.

4. Pat Burrell (since 04): .316–.344–.302–.242

The Lucky:

Derrek Lee: .354–.344–.402

Jorge Posada: .294–.312–.395

Magglio Ordonez: .329–.320–.392

Hunter Pence: .392

Dmitri Young: .297–.306–.288–.383

Ryan Braun: .411 I hate to list him here, and the power is obviously real, but if anyone out there thinks he’s really a .350 hitter then I have a bit of bad news.

Lastly, Miguel Caberea shows up on the list of highest BABIP, but if you look at his numbers from the last 3 seasons (.368, .382, .386) it shows he may not be lucky, just good. His line drive percentages over those years is 24.3%, 24.2% and 22.3% which is very high and would explain his ability to maintain a high BABIP.

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Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections

Who’s feeling lucky?

Posted on July 11, 2007 by | 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

I decided the All-Star Break was a good time to look at pythagorean records and see who’s had lady luck on their side.  Pythagorean records are adjusted to reflect runs scored vs. runs allowed totals.  For instance, the Arizona Diamondbacks have scored 371 runs and allowed 401, yet their record stands at 47-43.  On the other hand, the New York Yankees have scored 462 runs and allowed 392, but they sit at an unlucky 42-43 (simultaneous aw in 3…2…1… AWWWW).

Because this is my post and I am allowed to plaster my opinion throughout whenever I please, I’ll also be including my updated post-season picks.  Without further ado (it’s good to limit ado whenever possible), here you go.  I’ll start with the AL East, because it’s mandated by law to begin with the AL East in any league-wide discussion.

AL East Actual Record Pythagorean Record PECOTA’s Pre-season prediction
Boston Red Sox 53-34 52-35 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 43-44 45-42 80-82
New York Yankees 42-43 49-36 93-69
Baltimore Orioles 38-49 42-45 74-88
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 34-53 33-54 75-87

The most notable thing about the AL East is how much better than Yankees expected record is than their actual record.  While they’re likely to make a run, they’ve probably dug themselves too deep a hole.

On the otherhand, can you imagine how unbearable it would be if the Yankees came back to make the playoffs?  I couldn’t handle all the coverage.

AL Central Actual Record Pythagorean Record PECOTA’s Pre-season prediction
Detroit Tigers 52-34 52-34 85-77
Cleveland Indians 52-36 50-38 90-72
Minnesota Twins 45-43 48-40 91-71
Chicago White Sox 39-47 36-50 73-89
Kansas City Royals 38-50 41-47 66-96

This is going to be an exciting race.  I expect the Twins to heat up and get in the thick of things as the summer progresses.  Very tough division to call.

AL West Actual Record Pythagorean Record PECOTA’s Pre-season prediction
LA Angels of A 53-35 49-39 86-76
Seattle Mariners 49-36 44-41 73-89
Oakland Athletics 44-44 46-42 80-82
Texas Rangers 38-50 40-48 80-82

I have a lot of thoughts on this division.  First, I’m fairly certain that Seattle is a fluke.  They’ve come out of nowhere, and they’ve done it mostly without Felix Hernandez pitching well.  There are other reasons for my thinking this:  They’ve been lucky, their PECOTA record is horrible and their GM is Bill Bavasi.  He’s bound to do something stupid.

I think the Angels are worse than their record indicates, and I think the A’s are better than their record indicates.  LA doesn’t have the offense to sustain their current pace, and Oakland has weathered a crapton of injuries.  Pythagorean Oakland is only three games behind Pythagorean Anaheim.  Oakland is historically a second-half team (Billy Beane always gets what he needs at the deadline) and they’re getting Harden, Street and Piazza back.  I really think the A’s will make a run at this thing.

NL East Actual Record Pythagorean Record PECOTA’s Pre-season prediction
New York Mets 48-39 45-42 86-76
Atlanta Braves 47-42 45-45 82-80
Philadelphia Phillies 44-44 43-45 87-75
Florida Marlins 42-47 42-47 79-83
Washington Nationals 36-52 33-55 66-96

Boy, the Mets have really cooled off.  For all the talk about how great this division was, it suddenly looks mediocre.  Philly has gone through a ton of pitchers, but they have a couple MVP caliber hitters that will keep them in it.  I expect the Mets to get another starter and the Braves to get bullpen help.  This should be a three-team race.

NL Central Actual Record Pythagorean Record PECOTA’s Pre-season prediction
Milwaukee Brewers 49-39 48-40 85-77
Chicago Cubs 44-43 47-40 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals 40-45 36-49 81-81
Pittsburgh Pirates 40-48 38-50 76-86
Houston Astros 39-50 40-49 80-82
Cincinnati Reds 36-52 41-47 71-91

A quick glance shows us the Brewers are fortunate to even have a 4.5 game lead over the Cubs.  The Cubbies have been a bit “unlucky,” mainly because they lost their first six one-run games of the season.  After a slow start, the Cubs are the hottest team in baseball.  I’m pretty sure the days of 8.5 game leads on the division are over; this could come down to the last week of the season.

I still like the Brewers though.  Both teams have a good offense(Brewers have scored 34 more runs) and decent starting pitching (Cubs have been better so far).  The Brewers have a better bullpen.

One comforting fact is that with the Cubs ownership change in limbo they probably won’t be able to go out and add a big piece at the deadline, whereas I expect the Brewers to make a move or two.

By the way, if the rumored trade of Tony Gwynn Jr. for Akinori Otsuka was in fact nixed at the last minute by The Brewers because of Bill Hall’s injury, I might break my keyboard.

NL West Actual Record Pythagorean Record PECOTA’s Pre-season prediction
San Diego Padres 49-38 53-34 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers 49-40 48-41 80-82
Arizona Diamondbacks 47-43 41-49 88-74
Colorado Rockies 44-44 43-45 79-83
San Francisco Giants 38-48 43-43 79-83

The division of terrible offense.  San Diego is one injury to Jake Peavy or Chris Young from just about being a .500 team.  They have two aces and a great bullpen… and not much else.  Adrian Gonzales and Mike Cameron are good but San Diego has a poor offense overall.

The same story goes for every team basically.  The Dodgers have an amazing bullpen and solid starting pitching but a pretty crappy offense (With Juan Pierre in the leadoff spot?  Shocking!)

My Picks

I know this is what you’ve all been waiting for (rather than the interesting comparisons to pythag. and pecota).  I’m finding that most of my picks are pretty similar to my pre-season predictions for The Racquet.

AL East

Pretty safe bet saying Boston here.  Sticking with my pre-season pick.

AL Central

Even though I think the Twins will make things interesting, I’m switching off them and taking Detroit (with Cleveland for the wild card).  Detroit’s offense is scary-good.

AL West

This is probably my biggest stretch.  I’m sticking with the A’s despite their nine-ish game deficit to Anaheim.  The A’s have been ravaged by injuries and still sit at .500.  They have great pitching and they’re getting players back.  Beane will make moves, and Anaheim will come back down to Earth.

NL East

Also sticking with my pick here.  The Phillies have hung around .500 and are well within striking distance.  The Mets are faltering, and the Braves just don’t seem that great in any area… More or less decent at everything.  I just think Philly has the best team.

NL Central

The Cubs make me nervous, but if I picked the Brewers before the season, I sure have no reason to change that when they have a 4.5 game lead, right?  …Right?

NL West

I’ve decided to switch off the Dodgers to the Padres, mainly because I don’t like Juan Pierre.

Ok, that’s not why.  I just think the Padres have great starting pitching, and Peavy and Young have out-performed their already lofty expectations. Those two will be enough to carry the Pads.

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Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections

Fun with Splits (The Good)

Posted on July 9, 2007 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Dan 

Now some members of the crew who we can hope improve their level of play in the second half:

1.  Geoff Jenkins (.809/.911)– This one is fairly well chronicled, and if he repeats it this year he will play a big part in carrying the Brewers to the post season (2005: Jenkins hit .332 with a 1.025 OPS after the break).

2.  Jeff Suppan — His career numbers are basically equal (4.68/4.56).  Last year however, he went 5.83/2.39.  Here’s hoping he does it again.

3.  Francisco Cordero (3.51/3.03) — Even though Cordero had an amazing first half, he is traditionally a half a run better in the second half (2006 with the Crew: 1.69 ERA).

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007, Projections

Fun with Splits (The Bad)

Posted on July 9, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Dan 

Even though the All-Star Break is barely hours old, I came up with this BRILLIANT idea for a post. I’m going to take a look at some career Pre/Post ASB splits of members of the Crew. I’ll exclude the obvious (Weeks, Fielder, Hardy, etc.) since there is no point in trying to find a trend based on one year.

1. Chris Capuano (3.69 ERA Pre-ASB/5.04 Post) — I won’t really speculate but being a Tommy John survivor who gets by with mediocre stuff its possible this is the cause for him wearing down in the second half.

2. Kevin Mench (.841 OPS before/.731 After)– I don’t know what to say about Mench, except that seeing this, and his current .740 OPS makes me a bit nervous. He’s been decent lately though (.846 in his last 45 ABs).

3. Johnny Estrada (.777 Before, .673 After) – This makes sense, catchers definitly take a pounding over the course of a season and it adds up.

I’ll finish this tomorrow by looking at guys with more favorable numbers in the second half, but I’ll post it now for those of you waiting around the clock for an update.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007, Projections