Monthly Archives: September 2007

Seinfeld Episode 3: The Robbery (NL Central Style)

Posted on September 27, 2007 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

CUBS: Oh, Brewers Brewers Brewers Brewers Brewers [said very quickly], listen, if, if you are feeling uncomfortable about this at all, at all: do not feel like you have to take it.

BREWERS: Why?

CUBS: If you’re having second thoughts, if you didn’t want it, don’t worry about it because uh, ya know, I, I…I could take it, ya know.  [said with a "for-instance-look" on his face]

BREWERS: You could take it? You want it?

CUBS: No, I don’t want it. I want it, if you don’t want it.

BREWERS: So you do want it.

CUBS: No I, I want it if you don’t want it!

BREWERS: You just said, you wanted it!

CUBS: No, I’m saying, if a situation arose in which you didn’t want it, I might take it.

BREWERS: [picks up the division title and hands it to CUBS] So take it.

CUBS: [refuses to take the title from BREWERS; CARDINALS looks worried] How can I take it?!

BREWERS: How can I take it?

CUBS: It’s your division!

BREWERS: How can I want it now, if you want it?

CARDINALS: Excuse me, uuhh, I don’t mean to cause any trouble here, but Cubs, if you take it, can I take your place?

CUBS: Yes, but I am not taking it.

BREWERS: I…am not taking it. [drops the title demonstratively]

CARDINALS: Well, one of you better damn well take it!

 seinfeld-gang4.gif

The Robbery transcript is from http://seinfeld.phoolish.org/

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Posted in Major League Baseball, Milwaukee Brewers 2007

I’m not a baby; I am a MAN. I am a MANAGER man. I’m a man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel Tower out of metal and brawn. That’s what kind of man I am.You’re just a manager with a small brain, Tony La Russa. With a brain a third the size of us. It’s science.

Posted on September 26, 2007 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Who cares if retaliating by throwing at Albert Pujols with nobody on base was a dumb baseball move? Ned got Tony La Russa back for hitting Prince. He’s not backing down from a challenge. So what if the Brewers haven’t made the post-season in a quarter century? Ned did what’s most important: Proving one’s manly manhood.

Oh, and once again the Brewers chose to not use Cordero before the ninth inning. Bases loaded, two out, Turnbow struggling. So let’s leave him in!

And Derrick Turnbow, are you kidding me? Four straight balls with the bases loaded to Kelly Stinnett? He better not see a close inning the rest of the season.

The Cubs are doing everything they can to give the Brewers a chance, and this is what happens.

21353086_c4cbb01f28.jpg

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Posted in Major League Baseball, Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??

So you’re saying there’s a chance…

Posted on September 25, 2007 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

dumbdumber_02.jpg

So it’s still very long odds, but the Brewers aren’t quite dead yet.  Two blowout victories and one Cubs loss later, and they’re within two games with five left to play.  BP’s playoff odds entering tonight’s game was only about 6%.  After tonight I’d guess it’s probably around 10%.  An interesting fact I learned tonight is that two teams have come back from a 3.5 game deficit with seven games remaining to win their division, so it’s not totally uncharted territory.  Add in the fact that the Brewers are the best home team in baseball doesn’t hurt.

Either way, it was a good time at the game tonight.  The crowd erupted when the Cubs loss was posted on the scoreboard, so you know the fans are still into it.  Also Prince Fielder is just amazing, obviously.  He is going to terrorize the NL Central for the foreseeable future.

To reiterate, the odds are still very much against the Brewers.  But it’s at least within reach.  We’ll probably need the Cubs to go 2-3 to have a realistic shot, because if they go 3-2 the Brewers will have to win their last five (and I just don’t see a 4-game sweep of the Padres on the horizon, even at home).   Tomorrow’s game is a must-win against the crappy Cards.

Things don’t look good, but after last weekend I’m glad to even have games to be interested in.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007

I hate bunting.

Posted on September 22, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve


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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007

Joe Sheehan is my homeboy

Posted on September 20, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I first want to throw out a disclaimer that I am aware the Brewers were shut down by Jeff “Hellboy” Bennett tonight in a game they needed to win with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz looming in the next games. I’m also aware that tonight the Brewers fell 1.5 games behind the Cubs and their playoff chances are now quite slim.

I felt I had to say that before saying that I’m giddy right now.

Why’s that? Because Joe Sheehan of Baseball Freaking Prospectus devoted an entire column to Ned Yost’s ineptitude in last night’s game! That’s right. Ned was actually so bad that he caught the attention of a nationally renowned, critically acclaimed writer baseball writer who undoubtedly has a thousand other things to write about.

You have to admit that’s hilarious.

————————————–

Ned clearly heard that he had been ripped all day today for not using Cordero. Haudricourt has his clueless response here.

Highlights:

“For me, it just doesn’t make any sense,” he said. “If your stopper comes in the ball game (with the score tied), he’s got to get six outs (to close the game if his team scores).

“So, if you put your stopper in the game you better hope you score the next inning so he can close it out. If you don’t score, he has to throw another three outs for you to have an opportunity (to win).

“If you throw your stopper out there for three innings and then you score, then you’ve got a decision. Do I throw him out there again and have him unavailable for the next three days? Or do I bring somebody else in?”

Wow. There are so many things here I could talk about. Let’s have a Ned Yost/Francisco Cordero cornucopia.

  • Ned is worried about pitching Cordero for two innings. Certainly that isn’t something you want to do. But, subthought…
    • Why does Cordero have to get six outs? Why can’t you use him to get out of a huge jam (like in the eighth with the lead) or to get through the heart of the Astros’ order in a tie game (like in the tenth)? Then… okay, Ned, I know this could be hard for you, but… USE SOMEONE ELSE TO CLOSE OUT THE GAME. He is more worried about the outs to end the game than he is about the outs that are needed in order for those last outs to even exist (it makes sense, just re-read it slower this time).
    • Ned said Cordero would be out three days if he threw three innings. One day, certainly. Maybe two days, but probably not. No way to three days.  Also, nobody would suggest using Cordero for three innings in a non-playoff game.  The fact that Yost even suggested that makes me even more concerned.
  • He keeps calling him the “stopper.”  Why call your closer a stopper?  Clearly, Yost does not see Cordero as a stopper.  He sees him as a saves-getter.  A stopper would be someone you use in situations with the game on the line.  A stopper is someone like Carlos Marmol, Joel Zumaya or Brian Wilson.  In other words, an awesome reliever who isn’t only used to get saves.  It seems ironic to me that Yost calls Cordero the very term that describes what his role should be.
  • Here’s my favorite quote: “Do I throw him out there again and have him unavailable for the next three days? Or do I bring somebody else in?” You just bring someone else in.  Worry about it when you get there, or you won’t get there at all.  Not that hard.
  • This doesn’t concern last night directly, or Ned in particular, but if the save statistic did not exist Francisco would have at least five more appearances this season.  Probably more.  That just annoys me.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007, Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??

Just fire him already. I’m exhausted.

Posted on September 19, 2007 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

When everyone on a message board knows you are making the wrong move, you probably don’t deserve to keep your job as a major league manager. You can check out the brewerfan.net in-game thread if you want proof that everyone knew it was completely the wrong move to bring in Derrick Turnbow in the middle of the eighth inning.

Turnbow pitched yesterday. He’s terrible when he doesn’t start an inning. He’s terrible when pitching on consecutive days. You have FRANCISCO CORDERO available. Why is this so difficult?

It’s just the same story. I know you aren’t going to fire him this season. Just please do it afterwards.

Edit:

Okay, plenty more to add since I originally made this post. Let’s run down all dumbfounding moves by Ned.

  • Taking Braun out of the game for defense with a one-run lead.
  • Walking Berkman with Shouse rather than making Berkman face Shouse right handed (Berkman is better as a lefty hitter).
  • Sending out Derrick Turnbow in the middle of the eight to face Carlos Lee instead of using Francisco Cordero.
  • Sending out Chris Spurling in the ninth instead of using Francisco Cordero.
  • Using Mitch Stetter at any point in that game.  Especially ahead of Francisco Cordero.
  • Sending out Matt Wise in the tenth instead of using Francisco Cordero.
  • Not intentionally walking Hunter Pence with first and third and one out in the bottom of the tenth.
  • Losing a ten-inning game against the horrible Houston Astros without using your ace relief pitcher, Francisco Cordero.

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Posted in Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??

It’s a good thing I’m not older…

Posted on September 19, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

…Because if I was I would have serious concerns about my health. The past few years I always figured the Brewers would be getting good around this time, but I never really considered how I would feel during a pennant race. Monday night after David Weathers blew the save and allowed three runs without recording an out, I was in a terrible mood for the rest of the night. At the time, the Brewers’ playoff odds went from a coin flip to about 30% because of that loss, and I was pretty bummed.

Then came last night’s games, and I’ve been bouncing around ever since. We’re back to even with 12 games to go. Of course, that does mean I’m probably in for another 12 days of agony.

On to the cornucopia…

  • Pitching a starter on three days’ rest just isn’t a very good idea. Zambrano was well off his game tonight pitching on three days’ rest. The Cubs are doing it again today with Ted Lilly, so let’s hope it has the same negative impact. Sheets also pitched on three days’ rest as well; I was okay with that one though because Ben only threw about 50 pitches in his last start.
  • I almost think I would be less frustrated if Ben Sheets ever had one recurring injury. Herniated disc, torn lat, pulled groin, blister, torn finger tissue, strained hamstring… He’s running out of body parts to injure. The only thing that’s ever repeated is the vestibular neuritis (I’m pretty sure I just put the wheels in motion for Ben’s third bout of v.b. to strike any day now). It sounds like last night’s hamstring issue was just a cramp and he’ll be able to make his next start, so obviously that’s a good thing. Like I said though, it just gets frustrating.
  • I’m not sure if I’m annoyed or humored that some Cubs players and fans are complaining about the Astros not “trying.” They are referring to scheduled starts by Roy Oswalt and Woody Williams being made instead by two rookie pitchers. Of course Oswalt’s wife is having a child, so there’s nothing the Cubs could even say. But Woody Williams? Woody Williams has been rocked this season. I actually remember being disappointed when I heard he wouldn’t be starting. Furthermore, any team out of the race should be giving starts to young players to see what they have. There is no reason the Astros should be giving starts to 63-year-old Woody Williams over a top-ten organizational prospect on September 18th.
  • I’m not usually a huge Michael Hunt fan, but I really did enjoy his last column on how the Cubs somehow managed to become the nation’s darling underdogs.
  • Prince Fielder. He is really, really good. And over the last month he has been even better. His September line: .396/.475/.811/1.287. Yes, that’s an eight-eleven slugging percentage. He’s 23 years old, he’s set the franchise record for home runs and he’s going to be the MVP. Amazing.
  • We’re now in season 3 in our League of Dorks. My rebuilding of the Royals is getting close to paying off at the major league level. Because I’m close, I got a little carried away in free agency. I have a sweet starting rotation, though, featuring Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Joba Chamberlain and Jonathan Sanchez with Rick Porcello waiting in the wings (this is the 2009 version of these players, remember).
  • I can’t imagine one person who cared to read that last bullet point. But that’s too bad. This is my post, so I’m allowed to have you make the effort to skip over the last two sentences after realizing what it was about.
  • I’m still very ticked about that lucky Cubs win last night. The Brewers have been playing extremely well and it seems like they should have a better fate than a percentage-points lead.
  • The Crew is right on schedule with my irrational-game-choosing post. They can jump ahead of schedule with a sweep tomorrow. This sure would be a great time for the team’s first road sweep since July of 2004, especially going into that scary four-gamer in Atlanta.
  • I’m very interested to watch Dave Bush tonight. After two awful starts he could reeeaally use a bounce-back start.
  • B!B!KTUTH!

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Milwaukee Brewers 2007

Congratulations to Roy and Nicole Oswalt

Posted on September 17, 2007 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Even the biggest of baseball fans realize when it’s time to pause and appreciate moments in life outside of the game.  Celebrating the miracle of life is one of those moments.  That’s why, on behalf of all of us at B.B.K.T.U.T.H, I would like to send heartfelt congratulations to the Oswalts on the impending birth of their second child.  Nicole Oswalt will deliver the baby on Tuesday via induced birth.

Naturally, the Houston Astros organization also understands the importance of these precious moments.  That’s why Roy Oswalt will be leaving the team for a couple days.  In fact, Oswalt will not be starting on Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers as originally scheduled.   This snippet from the JS:

 Instead of Oswalt, who is 14-7 with a 3.29 earned run average, the Brewers will get rookie Juan Gutierrez (1-1, 6.10), who will be making his second major-league start. In his first start Aug. 23 against Washington, Gutierrez was hammered for 11 hits and six runs in five innings.

Again, congratulations to the Oswalts in this ever-so-special time.

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Posted in Uncategorized

Time to irrationally look at each series and project each individual outcome

Posted on September 14, 2007 by | 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

There are intelligent people and/or complex tools I could use to look at each individual game the rest of the way for both the Brewers and the Cubs to draw a more educated conclusion, but I figure I use BP’s playoff odds enough anyway.

I am bored and there isn’t much to write about from yesterday except that the Astros didn’t do the Brewers any favors, so I’m just going to look at each one and take the Dusty Baker route. Play a hunch, that is. Use my gut instinct. People [always] have been trying to bring me down. Very rarely do I hear what I have done. That’s okay, that’s how it is. Actually, that makes me stronger. It’s okay. What are you going to say when I kick somebody’s [rear]? <—–Actual Dusty Baker quote, for those who didn’t know

Anyways, here’s what I came up with.

Brewers Schedule

  • Host Cincinnati for three games
    • If the Brewers do not win this series I’ll probably throw in the towel. Not because they wouldn’t still have a chance, but because the Reds are sending out human equivalents of pitching machines this series.
    • Today is Tom Shearn (30 year-old rookie) vs. Sheets. Yost is shuffling the rotation around a bit. Suppan hasn’t pitched since Saturday, but they’re still keeping Sheets on regular rest. I have to say I agree with this strategy. Saturday is Suppan vs. Kirk Sarloos and Sunday is Villanueva against Matt Belisle.
    • Guessing outcomes based on starting pitchers can be dangerous, but with the match-ups in all three games leaning towards the Brewers, I’d be very disappointed with less than two wins. I’m actually really hoping for a sweep, but I’ll be realistic.
    • Prediction: It’s the Reds at home, and they won’t see Harang or Arroyo. Brewers take 2/3.
  • Three games at Houston
    • The Brewers have pretty much had their way with the Astros this season. Now would be a terrible time for that trend not to continue.
    • I’m loving Yo in this series, but I’m getting a little leary of Dave Bush. After a strong six-game stretch, Bush has been pretty awful his last two starts. I don’t like the thought of Bad Dave Bush pitching in a stadium where the left field wall is 75 feet away from home plate.
    • Prediction: It’s still the Astros. Brewers take 2/3.
  • Four games at Atlanta
    • This is probably the series that scares me the most. The Braves are a decent team. The Brewers will also see John Smoltz in this series, who is excellent as usual.
    • The Braves are out of the playoff race, so I do have a little hope that Bobby Cox might take it a little bit easy on his pupil Ned.
    • Prediction: Four-game series sounds like a split to me. Brewers take 2/4.
  • Host St. Louis for three games
    • Thanks to a pretty little seven-game slide, the Cards are out of the running. By the time the Cards are here, La Russa won’t even be managing like they’re in the race (hopefully he still is this week against the Cubbies).
    • I just love the fact that the Brewers play their last seven games at home. The crowd’s gonna be hoppin, and it will be a great environment. That, plus the fact that the Brewers are the best home team in baseball.
    • Prediction: Cards will be done. Brewers take 2/3.
  • Host San Diego for four games
    • This series should be mayhem. Both teams will likely still be competing for a playoff spot by this time, so the Padres won’t be doing the Brewers any favors.
    • Prediction: Four game series against another tough team makes me say split again. Brewers take 2/4.

Best chance to pick up a game

Sweeping Cincinnati this weekend. Three crappy pitchers make that a doable feat.

Best chance to drop a game

The Atlanta series. Four road games against a semi-competent team scare me. They could easily lose three games in this series.

Final Outlook

By that count, I have the Brewers going 10-7 the rest of the way. That puts them at 84-78. My realistically optimistic record has them at 85/77, and my realistically pessimistic record is 83/79. Of course they could run off something like 13 of 17 or drop 11 of 17, but I see these three records as the most likely outcome.

I’m pretty sure the magic number will be 85 wins. If the Brewers get there I feel great about their chances of beating out the Cubs. And if my memory serves me correctly, I once wrote for a fine university newspaper that the Brewers would win 85 games and take the division (This was when I still attended college. Don’t worry, you’re probably too young to remember).

There isn’t much else to say right now. 17 games in 17 days is all that remains. I’m nervous as hell but I’m still obviously looking forward to it. In the ultimate act of optimism we even ordered our playoff tickets today.  I’ll leave you today with this sweet illustration from the Journal Sentinel and some wise words by which to live.

brewpitch913.jpg

 

Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turnin’ Up the Heat!

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007, Projections

Wham! A homa! Wham! Another homa! Wham! Wham! WHAM!

Posted on September 10, 2007 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I think I’ll just let these images say all I’d need to.

topperformers.jpg

weeks-homer.jpg

Tom Uhlman/AP

NL Central W   L   Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers    73  69  .506  83.6  78.4  55.56204     .15269   55.71474
Cubs       72  70  .498  82.7  79.3  35.68197     .19877   35.88075
Cardinals  69  71  .468  79.8  82.2   8.74349     .01297    8.75646
Reds       64  79  .463  73.1  88.9    .01223     .00000     .01223
Pirates    63  80  .426  71.4  90.6    .00020     .00000     .00020
Astros     62  81  .420  70.5  91.5    .00006     .00000     .00006

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2007