Daily Archives: September 7, 2007

John Donovan, what are you talking about?

Posted on September 7, 2007 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

I’m not trying to rip off firejoemorgan, but I just can’t help myself. This beauty was too much for me to not go all Ken Tremendous on John Donovan.

Basically, the premise of this article is obituaries for contending teams. It is imperative to remember that this was posted today. It’s kind of lame anyway because he tries to write them like they are actual obituaries and it just comes off as awkward and corny. But anyway, this one catches the eye:

The Milwaukee Brewers, longtime leaders in the NL Central, apparently died late last month after six losses in seven games knocked them a season-high 2 ½ games out of first place. Apparent cause of death has been listed as a lack of starting support, coupled with lineup inefficiencies and a possible constriction of the throat, especially when any glovework is involved. The Brewers, who haven’t posted a winning season since 1982, led the Central by 8 ½ games in late June. Without injured ace Ben Sheets, though, and with a string of ineffective starts by Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan, the Brewers succumbed to the hard-charging Cubs in August. As of press time, the Brewers remain officially tied for first place in the Central, so the league has yet to release an exact time of death.

What a strange time to write that the Brewers are dead… The day they move into a tie for first place! And he said they died when they moved to a season-high 2.5 games out of first place. Two and a half games with more than a month to play. Better throw in the towel Brew Crew.

My favorite part is where he actually says the Brewers are tied for first RIGHT NOW. It’s like he’s disproving his whole article. Other inexplicable omittances include the fact that Ben Sheets has been back from injury for two starts already, the fact that the Brewers have played better than the Cubs or Cardinals over the last week and the fact that THEY CAN’T POSSIBLY BE OUT OF IT BECAUSE THEY ARE TIED FOR FIRST PLACE. Also he says the Brewers haven’t had a winning season since 1982… Replace that ’8′ with a ’9′ and you’re just fine, John.
Current odds from Baseball Prospectus:

NL Central  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers     71   68   .503   83.0   79.0   37.67123     .34773   38.01896
Cubs        71   68   .501   83.3   78.7   44.59108     .33003   44.92111
Cardinals   69   68   .469   81.2   80.8   17.68358     .10299   17.78658

There you have it. 38% chance at the post-season, and they’re dead. Thing is, the second the Brewers move ahead of the Cubs, which could be as early as today, they become the statistical favorite to win the division. So apparently Donovan is banking on the Brewers not passing the Cubs the rest of the season.

And it’s not just the Brewers. Here are some other teams he wrote off:

Detroit Tigers: 23% playoff chance, 3 back in wild card

Los Angeles Dodgers: 33% playoff chance, 3.5 back in division, 2.5 back in wild card

Philadelphia Phillies: 24% playoff chance, 3 back in wild card

Colorado Rockies: 12% playoff chance, 4 back in wild card

Really the only teams who are actually out of it in his entire article are the Braves and Mariners, and even the Mariners are only three back in the AL Wildcard.

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Posted in Articles that irritate me

Musings from an off day

Posted on September 7, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Time for another cornucopia of thoughts!  Before we get started, I’d like to wish everyone a happy belated brewerfan.net-proclaimed Andre Ethier day.  It’s the first annual.

  •  Dan hasn’t posted in quite some time.  I encourage all readers to send him heinous emails that also encourage more posting.
  • I’m feeling good about the Crew right now.  I’m feeling loose.  I’m pretty sure they’re going to win the division still.  The bullpen’s still an adventure, but the starting pitching has turned around.  Ben Sheets is back, and more importantly, effective.  The offense is suddenly on fire.  Bill Hall’s actually swinging the bat pretty well lately and he still can’t crack the starting lineup.  Unfortunately the Brewers cannot play the Astros every game, but they do play some unimpressive teams the rest of the way.
  • Even though I have a positive outlook, this is uncharted territory for me as a Brewer fan.  I am not used to watching games that matter in September, and I don’t know if I’m adjusting well.  I get really into the games, I get more animated than usual when Yost makes a questionable move, I get more excited at home runs, etc.  I’m constantly checking Cubs and Cardinals scores, and my general mood for the couple hours following the game is dependent upon the outcome.
  • I really think I am going to like Matt LaPorta.  Patrick Ebert of Brewerfan has a great interview with LaPorta that you can find here.  My favorite excerpt:
    PE: There are quite a few readers at Brewerfan.net that are big proponents of the modern slugger, the kind that not only hits for average and power, but also one that has a very selective eye at the plate by drawing a bunch of walks. Can you share you overall approach to hitting, what you’re looking for and what you’re trying to do from at-bat to at-bat?

    ML: I really just try to get up there and relax. It’s really as simple as “see the ball, hit the ball,” knowing what you want to hit, and then hitting it. If you get something that you don’t like, you don’t need to swing at every single pitch. That’s something I’ve learned over the past few years. Just because you have two strikes on you doesn’t mean you still can’t make great contact and be a great hitter in those situations.

    PE: So do you employ a different approach with two strikes?

    ML: No, I really just stick with the same approach. It doesn’t matter what the count is.

  • Even if the Brewers manage to make the playoffs, I don’t know if Ned Yost should keep his job.  He has made simply dumbfounding moves lately.  I don’t hide the fact that I hate the sac bunt, but that’s at least excusable because many managers use it.  But Ned has made some moves that no other manager would make (i.e. using Mench over Jenkins against the righty and using Aquino with the game on the line with two outs in the eighth).  I’m almost scared to have Ray King on the roster.  King is great against lefties and terrible against righties.  There should be no reason he should ever face a righty with less than a four run lead.  That should be obvious, yet I’m worried about it because of Yost’s managing lately.  I could see Doug Melvin changing managers even with a playoff appearance, a la Billy Beane to Ken Macha.
  • Dan’s birthday is tomorrow, so try not to make those emails too heinous.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Milwaukee Brewers 2007