John Donovan, what are you talking about?

Posted by Steve

I’m not trying to rip off firejoemorgan, but I just can’t help myself. This beauty was too much for me to not go all Ken Tremendous on John Donovan.

Basically, the premise of this article is obituaries for contending teams. It is imperative to remember that this was posted today. It’s kind of lame anyway because he tries to write them like they are actual obituaries and it just comes off as awkward and corny. But anyway, this one catches the eye:

The Milwaukee Brewers, longtime leaders in the NL Central, apparently died late last month after six losses in seven games knocked them a season-high 2 ½ games out of first place. Apparent cause of death has been listed as a lack of starting support, coupled with lineup inefficiencies and a possible constriction of the throat, especially when any glovework is involved. The Brewers, who haven’t posted a winning season since 1982, led the Central by 8 ½ games in late June. Without injured ace Ben Sheets, though, and with a string of ineffective starts by Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan, the Brewers succumbed to the hard-charging Cubs in August. As of press time, the Brewers remain officially tied for first place in the Central, so the league has yet to release an exact time of death.

What a strange time to write that the Brewers are dead… The day they move into a tie for first place! And he said they died when they moved to a season-high 2.5 games out of first place. Two and a half games with more than a month to play. Better throw in the towel Brew Crew.

My favorite part is where he actually says the Brewers are tied for first RIGHT NOW. It’s like he’s disproving his whole article. Other inexplicable omittances include the fact that Ben Sheets has been back from injury for two starts already, the fact that the Brewers have played better than the Cubs or Cardinals over the last week and the fact that THEY CAN’T POSSIBLY BE OUT OF IT BECAUSE THEY ARE TIED FOR FIRST PLACE. Also he says the Brewers haven’t had a winning season since 1982… Replace that ’8′ with a ’9′ and you’re just fine, John.
Current odds from Baseball Prospectus:

NL Central  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs

Brewers     71   68   .503   83.0   79.0   37.67123     .34773   38.01896

Cubs        71   68   .501   83.3   78.7   44.59108     .33003   44.92111

Cardinals   69   68   .469   81.2   80.8   17.68358     .10299   17.78658

There you have it. 38% chance at the post-season, and they’re dead. Thing is, the second the Brewers move ahead of the Cubs, which could be as early as today, they become the statistical favorite to win the division. So apparently Donovan is banking on the Brewers not passing the Cubs the rest of the season.

And it’s not just the Brewers. Here are some other teams he wrote off:

Detroit Tigers: 23% playoff chance, 3 back in wild card

Los Angeles Dodgers: 33% playoff chance, 3.5 back in division, 2.5 back in wild card

Philadelphia Phillies: 24% playoff chance, 3 back in wild card

Colorado Rockies: 12% playoff chance, 4 back in wild card

Really the only teams who are actually out of it in his entire article are the Braves and Mariners, and even the Mariners are only three back in the AL Wildcard.