Monthly Archives: September 2007

John Donovan, what are you talking about?

Posted on September 7, 2007 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

I’m not trying to rip off firejoemorgan, but I just can’t help myself. This beauty was too much for me to not go all Ken Tremendous on John Donovan.

Basically, the premise of this article is obituaries for contending teams. It is imperative to remember that this was posted today. It’s kind of lame anyway because he tries to write them like they are actual obituaries and it just comes off as awkward and corny. But anyway, this one catches the eye:

The Milwaukee Brewers, longtime leaders in the NL Central, apparently died late last month after six losses in seven games knocked them a season-high 2 ½ games out of first place. Apparent cause of death has been listed as a lack of starting support, coupled with lineup inefficiencies and a possible constriction of the throat, especially when any glovework is involved. The Brewers, who haven’t posted a winning season since 1982, led the Central by 8 ½ games in late June. Without injured ace Ben Sheets, though, and with a string of ineffective starts by Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan, the Brewers succumbed to the hard-charging Cubs in August. As of press time, the Brewers remain officially tied for first place in the Central, so the league has yet to release an exact time of death.

What a strange time to write that the Brewers are dead… The day they move into a tie for first place! And he said they died when they moved to a season-high 2.5 games out of first place. Two and a half games with more than a month to play. Better throw in the towel Brew Crew.

My favorite part is where he actually says the Brewers are tied for first RIGHT NOW. It’s like he’s disproving his whole article. Other inexplicable omittances include the fact that Ben Sheets has been back from injury for two starts already, the fact that the Brewers have played better than the Cubs or Cardinals over the last week and the fact that THEY CAN’T POSSIBLY BE OUT OF IT BECAUSE THEY ARE TIED FOR FIRST PLACE. Also he says the Brewers haven’t had a winning season since 1982… Replace that ’8′ with a ’9′ and you’re just fine, John.
Current odds from Baseball Prospectus:

NL Central  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers     71   68   .503   83.0   79.0   37.67123     .34773   38.01896
Cubs        71   68   .501   83.3   78.7   44.59108     .33003   44.92111
Cardinals   69   68   .469   81.2   80.8   17.68358     .10299   17.78658

There you have it. 38% chance at the post-season, and they’re dead. Thing is, the second the Brewers move ahead of the Cubs, which could be as early as today, they become the statistical favorite to win the division. So apparently Donovan is banking on the Brewers not passing the Cubs the rest of the season.

And it’s not just the Brewers. Here are some other teams he wrote off:

Detroit Tigers: 23% playoff chance, 3 back in wild card

Los Angeles Dodgers: 33% playoff chance, 3.5 back in division, 2.5 back in wild card

Philadelphia Phillies: 24% playoff chance, 3 back in wild card

Colorado Rockies: 12% playoff chance, 4 back in wild card

Really the only teams who are actually out of it in his entire article are the Braves and Mariners, and even the Mariners are only three back in the AL Wildcard.

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Posted in Articles that irritate me

Musings from an off day

Posted on September 7, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Time for another cornucopia of thoughts!  Before we get started, I’d like to wish everyone a happy belated brewerfan.net-proclaimed Andre Ethier day.  It’s the first annual.

  •  Dan hasn’t posted in quite some time.  I encourage all readers to send him heinous emails that also encourage more posting.
  • I’m feeling good about the Crew right now.  I’m feeling loose.  I’m pretty sure they’re going to win the division still.  The bullpen’s still an adventure, but the starting pitching has turned around.  Ben Sheets is back, and more importantly, effective.  The offense is suddenly on fire.  Bill Hall’s actually swinging the bat pretty well lately and he still can’t crack the starting lineup.  Unfortunately the Brewers cannot play the Astros every game, but they do play some unimpressive teams the rest of the way.
  • Even though I have a positive outlook, this is uncharted territory for me as a Brewer fan.  I am not used to watching games that matter in September, and I don’t know if I’m adjusting well.  I get really into the games, I get more animated than usual when Yost makes a questionable move, I get more excited at home runs, etc.  I’m constantly checking Cubs and Cardinals scores, and my general mood for the couple hours following the game is dependent upon the outcome.
  • I really think I am going to like Matt LaPorta.  Patrick Ebert of Brewerfan has a great interview with LaPorta that you can find here.  My favorite excerpt:
    PE: There are quite a few readers at Brewerfan.net that are big proponents of the modern slugger, the kind that not only hits for average and power, but also one that has a very selective eye at the plate by drawing a bunch of walks. Can you share you overall approach to hitting, what you’re looking for and what you’re trying to do from at-bat to at-bat?

    ML: I really just try to get up there and relax. It’s really as simple as “see the ball, hit the ball,” knowing what you want to hit, and then hitting it. If you get something that you don’t like, you don’t need to swing at every single pitch. That’s something I’ve learned over the past few years. Just because you have two strikes on you doesn’t mean you still can’t make great contact and be a great hitter in those situations.

    PE: So do you employ a different approach with two strikes?

    ML: No, I really just stick with the same approach. It doesn’t matter what the count is.

  • Even if the Brewers manage to make the playoffs, I don’t know if Ned Yost should keep his job.  He has made simply dumbfounding moves lately.  I don’t hide the fact that I hate the sac bunt, but that’s at least excusable because many managers use it.  But Ned has made some moves that no other manager would make (i.e. using Mench over Jenkins against the righty and using Aquino with the game on the line with two outs in the eighth).  I’m almost scared to have Ray King on the roster.  King is great against lefties and terrible against righties.  There should be no reason he should ever face a righty with less than a four run lead.  That should be obvious, yet I’m worried about it because of Yost’s managing lately.  I could see Doug Melvin changing managers even with a playoff appearance, a la Billy Beane to Ken Macha.
  • Dan’s birthday is tomorrow, so try not to make those emails too heinous.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Milwaukee Brewers 2007

Step into Brian’s House

Posted on September 4, 2007 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Hey, remember when I said Brian Shouse doesn’t belong on the team?

Shouse’s numbers since that date:

30.1 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, Opponents hitting .173/.237/.192

You know, I really am starting to question whether Bill Hall belongs on this team.  ;)

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Posted in Uncategorized

Seriously, Doug. Like, right now.

Posted on September 3, 2007 by | 6 Comments

Posted by Steve

Hello everyone. I’m just returning from a beautiful Labor Day at the ballpark. How fun.

Question, though. Did Yost really let Greg Aquino blow the lead? That did happen, right? Ok then. Here goes.

Ned has no idea what he’s doing. None. Greg Aquino?! With an eighth-inning two-run lead, runners on first and second and two out, here are people I would rather see pitching to Hunter Pence than Greg Aquino:

  • Francisco Freaking Cordero
  • Brian Shouse
  • Matt Wise
  • Chris Spurling
  • Steve Bray (still somehow in AAA with a 1.62 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 77.2 innings)
  • Manny Parra with a broken thumb
  • Corey Koskie
  • Danny Almonte
  • Haley Joel Osment
  • Chewbacca
  • Me

Yost said he wanted to use a righty and play the percentages (just like Mench over Jenkins against Dempster!). That’s why he didn’t leave Shouse in to face Pence. That’s fine. I’m completely okay with that, and I even agree with it.

But not when the choice is… Greg Aquino. First of all, the guy imploded with inherited runners during his time in Milwaukee. Secondly, it’s incredibly unfair to ask a guy to make his first major league appearance in months when you’re trying to hold a late lead (especially one who isn’t an established major-league player).

I won’t even rag on Ned for sac bunting with Hardy (most managers don’t realize it lowers your chances of scoring a run anyway, or at least they ignore that fact) or subbing out Braun and Gross and burning through his September call-upped bench in a nine-inning game.

For me, it’s all about the bullpen, baby.  Why in the name of Winklesas would you use Seth McClung with a two-run lead in the seventh inning?  Especially if Linebrink was your backup plan for that inning to begin with?  This isn’t 2004 Neddy Bear.  You aren’t using September to give guys confidence anymore.  You’re trying to win your division.

And of course, why didn’t he consider using Francisco Cordero to face Pence in the eighth?  Is it so preposterous to ask your closer to get four outs once in a while?  Of course not.  Instead, Yost let his team blow a three-run eighth inning lead without using his best reliever.

Now I’m not completely blaming the loss on Ned.  Turnbow was not good today, Estrada is slow and lazy, Gross screwed up, etc.  But as manager, there’s no excuse for not putting your team in the best position to win.  And once again, (broken record?) there’s no way Ned could convincingly argue that he did that today.

Even more infuriating is the fact that the Cardinals and Cubs both got worked today, so they should have picked up a game.  I’ve had enough of Ned’s in-game decision making, and his keen ability to mismanage a bullpen.  Let’s take care of that any day now, Mr. Melvin.

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Posted in Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??