Monthly Archives: October 2007

Where must the Brewers improve? Part 2: On-base percentage and Plate Discipline

Posted on October 22, 2007 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Before I get into part two, a quick reflection on part one: After I said I did not have access to some of the newer and more advanced defensive metrics, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus wrote a column about Ryan Braun using all of those metrics. Gotta love that your manager and third baseman are each bad enough in some area to inspire full columns from Baseball Prospectus in the same season. Anyway, as you’d expect, it supported the fact that Braun is a terrible third baseman. UZR, an advanced zone rating system, concludes that Braun’s defense actually takes away 75% of his offensive value. Seventy-five percent!

Alright. As difficult as it is to pry myself away from that subject, I’m moving on to another weak area for the Brewers in 2007: on-base percentage.

The Brewers’ OBP woes weren’t as glaring as the defensive weaknesses, mainly because of all their power. When a team leads MLB in home runs, it’s pretty easy to assume they have a great offense. In many ways the Brewers did have a good offense, obviously. But how many times did you hear Bill say on TV that the Brewers “rely too much on the home run ball”? Of course that’s pretty stupid because the home run is the best possible outcome of any plate appearance. But what some people refer to as the Brewers’ inability to “manufacture” runs was more or less an inability to get on base at a solid clip rather than an inability to bunt, hit and run, move runners over, or any kind of outs-sacrificing garbage.

Again, at first glance it seems the Brewers had a good offense. As a team, they ranked third in the NL in OPS and second in slugging percentage. The slugging percentage is what carried the OPS though, as the Brewers has just a .329 team OBP, good for 11th in the NL. That right there is the reason a team who out-homers everyone by a wide margin is only fifth in the NL in runs scored (which would be the ultimate stat, wouldn’t it?).

OBPs

To start, here’s a look at each of the Brewers’ individual OBPs and how they ranked in MLB at their position.

Johnny Estrada, C: .296 (18th out of 22 with at least 400 PAs) So much for being an offensive catcher. I suppose I should maybe cut him some slack after the recent report that he played all season with a painful bone spur in his elbow, but it was still very bad.

Prince Fielder, 1B: .395 (6th in MLB). No problems here, at least on the surface. I’ll get into why this should probably be even higher.

Rickie Weeks, 2B: .374 (8th in MLB). Weeks did this with a .235 batting average, which is extremely impressive. I cannot wait to see what he will do in a full injury-free season.

J.J. Hardy, SS: .323 (18th of 26 qualified shortstops) Hardy sort of epitomizes the Brewers’ team as a whole–good power (7th of 26 in slugging), poor on-base percentage.

Ryan Braun, 3B: .370 (Braun barely didn’t qualify at third with PAs, but would have ranked 8th) This may be misleading, because overall a .370 OBP is very good for any position. Braun’s was inflated, however, by a high .324 batting average. Braun does need to improve his plate discipline, as you’ll see later…

Geoff Jenkins, LF: .319 (21st out of 23 left fielders with at least 425 PAs) This is also ugly as well. Jenks did not hit well enough to justify a LF spot, especially since most of the season he was set up in an advantageous platoon situation.

Kevin Mench, LF: .305 (31st of 36 left fielders with at least 300 PAs) Just brutal. Again, he was set up mostly in a platoon.

Bill Hall, CF: .315 (16th out of 20 qualified center fielders) No doubt Hall had a bad year. He was never a good OBP guy, but this year was especially bad. Incidentally he also lost his slugging this season (10th out of 20) after a monster season in 2006.

Corey Hart, RF: .353 (13th out of 21 qualified right fielders) Not too bad, but with a .295 batting average you’d like to see the OBP a bit higher.

Gabe Gross, RF: .329(33rd out of 40 right fielders with at least 200 PAs) It’s bad, but when you consider his .235 batting average it’s actually good. I still think in 400 PAs (basically in Jenkins’ old role) Gross could hit .255 with a .360 OBP, which would be solid.

Craig Counsell: .323 Again, it’s relative to batting average. Counsell hit .220. So he can’t hit, but at least he can work a count and take a walk.

Damian Miller: .296 Miller can’t hit anymore; at least he’s decent defensively. Funny that his OBP is the same as Estrada’s though.

Yovani Gallardo: .268 ;)

So there are a lot of low numbers there, but as I said, it’s all relative to batting average.

BBs/PA

Another indicator is walks drawn. Here’s how Brewers players rank in walks per plate appearance.

Johnny Estrada, C: .026 (21 of 22 catchers with at least 400 PAs) Wow. Obviously I knew it was even harder for Johnny to draw a walk than it was for him to throw out a runner, but it’s funny to say that he drew twenty-six one hundredths of one walk each time he went to bat.

Prince Fielder, 1B: .132 (7th in MLB) Again, good. I hope that after Prince’s first year as an elite hitter that he can improve his patience just a bit. He has elite power, but the OBP wasn’t quite elite. Maybe .420 or so seems feasible down the road.

Rickie Weeks, 2B: .154 (1st in MLB) I keep telling you he’s a monster! He kills the competition; second place is Kelly Johnson with .130.

J.J. Hardy, SS: .063 (22nd of 26) J.J. is a hacker, and it shows in his OBP. He really needs to become a more disciplined hitter and draw some more walks.

Ryan Braun, 3B: .059 (23rd of 24 with at least 450 PAs) This is a big concern I have with Braun, second only to his defense. He’s obviously extremely talented offensively and has a ton of power, but he could be even better if he took more pitches and became more patient.

Geoff Jenkins, LF: .069 (17th of 21 with at least 450 PAs) Again, just bad. Fun fact: Barry Bonds drew .277 BB/PA.

Kevin Mench, LF: .052 (30 of 36 with at least300 PAs) Mench may not even belong on an MLB roster.

Bill Hall, CF: .080 (11th of 20) Meh.

Corey Hart, RF: .064 (18th of 21) This is why I said Hart’s OBP should be a little higher, even though .353 isn’t bad. He really doesn’t walk enough.

Gabe Gross, RF: .119 (10th out of 40 with at least 200 PAs) This is why I think Gross deserves more playing time. Wouldn’t it be cool if we could morph Gabe Gross and Corey Hart together? I’m envisioning a switch-hitting Magglio Ordonez with better speed.

Craig Counsell: .123 Again, Counsell is at least good at drawing some walks. Still not worth 3 mil a year.

Damian Miller: .068

P/PA

Finally, let’s look at overall patience and ability to work the count. Here’s how they stacked up in pitches seen per plate appearance for their position. I’m guessing I’ll want to run and hide from Estrada and Mench.

Johnny Estrada, C: 2.99 (Last in MLB with at least 400 PAs) Yep.

Prince Fielder, 1B: 3.79 (14th among 19 qualified first basemen) This is why I think Prince could/should have an even higher OBP. He’s not very patient, and many of his walks were intentional.

Rickie Weeks, 2B: 4.18 (2nd in MLB) Okay. He’s my man crush. Can I say that? I used to think it was Corey Hart. At this point a Rickie Weeks jersey would be a great investment, and at some point will be a necessity.

J.J. Hardy, SS: 3.85 (7th in MLB) Considering his OBP and walk totals, this number was a little better than I had expected.

Ryan Braun, 3B: 3.70 (17th out of 24 with at least 450 PAs) Lines up with his low walk totals.

Geoff Jenkins, LF: 3.79 (11th out of 21 with at least 450 PAs)

Kevin Mench, LF: 3.31 (34th out of 36 with at least 300 PAs) Any way you slice it, Kevin Mench sucks.

Corey Hart, RF: 3.57 (16th out of 21 qualified) Also indicates Corey isn’t patient enough.

Gabe Gross, RF: 3.91 (16th out of 40 with at least 200 PAs) Again, a solid number for Gabe.

Craig Counsell: 3.88

Damian Miller: 3.67

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Solutions

It’s pretty frustrating to know that the Brewers in a way wasted all their power on a team that didn’t get on base. Aside from individual players improving their patience (this seems possible in players like Hardy, Hart, Braun and even Fielder), there are a few solutions to improve the team’s on-base percentage.

Trim the fat

Players like Kevin Mench, Johnny Estrada, and as much as I like(d) him, Geoff Jenkins, are established veterans who aren’t going to change their approach. The Brewers need to cut ties with Mench and Jenkins (which incidentally frees up about $11 or $12 million). They should also seriously consider finding a catching upgrade. I’d take a solid defensive catcher who hits .240/.300/.390 over Estrada’s empty batting average and crap defense. On the other hand, if the Brewers believe Estrada’s injury hampered him as much as he claims, he might be worth keeping around another season.

Mix up the order

Until Hardy shows more plate discipline, which may/may not ever happen, keep him out of the two-hole. The offense really took off down the stretch when Weeks and Gross hit 1-2 in the lineup. Hardy looks great anywhere from 6-8 in the order if you ask me.

Add a solid walks guy… Or two

The Brewers should target an established major league hitter who will carry at least a .350 OBP. It really doesn’t even matter if he hits for any power, as long as he can get on base. Obviously the Brewers already have the run producers; they just need guys to be driven in.

Here are a few players who fit that bill:

Austin Kearns, RF

Kearns put up a .266/.355/.411 line this year with Washington. The Reds gave up on him when it became apparent he would not become the superstar he was billed to be, but he has still turned into a solid hitter. Kearns also brings great defense, so it would kill two birds with one stone. In my opinion, Kearns would not come at a premium price in a trade because of his modest batting average and low power numbers, but again, we’re much more concerned with the .355 OBP rather than the .411 slugging percentage. Kearns is still only 27 and will make $5 mil in ’08, $8 mil in ’09 and has an option in ’10 for $10 mil. Seems like at least two good seasons of production for a guy who may not have even peaked yet.

Mike Lowell, 3B

Lowell’s coming off a very good season in Boston where he hit .324/.378/.501. He’s available to sign as a free agent. While he won’t come too cheap, it’s probably worth exploring for the Brewers. He’s a huge upgrade defensively over Braun (two birds one stone again) and even if his average fell to say, .290, he’ll still carry a solid OBP. He’s 33, so he likely still has a few years of solid production left.

Gregg Zaun, C

Zaun is 36 but still hit .242/.341/.411 in 2007. He has a career OBP of .344, a nice number for a catcher. He’ll make less than 4 mil next season, so he might be a little tough to pry away from Toronto

Ryan Church, OF

He’s still cheap, he’s left-handed and he has had a little more pop than Kearns.

Conor Jackson (LF?)

I’m not sure if Jackson can play left field, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment in the power department for Arizona. He is good at reaching base though. Obviously the Brewers have no use for him if he’s only a first baseman, in which case I retract this suggestion. In fact, I’m pretty sure he’s just a first baseman, so… never mind. I’m still not deleting this paragraph.

Koskue Fukudome

Who?? Fukodome is a Japanese outfielder, but unlike Dice-K, he is a free agent and won’t require a posting fee. He put up huge numbers in Japan… Think Hideki Matsui with a little less power. At this point it’s unclear how much Fukudome could make in MLB, and it’s possible that he could be priced out of the Brewers’ range. He’d sure look good in left field for Milwaukee though.

Kenny Lofton, CF/LF

The ageless wonder. The guy put up a .367 OBP at 40 years old, and he’d still probably be a better center fielder than Bill Hall. Why not make the Brewers the 27th different team he’s played for in his career (may be an exaggeration)?

David DeJesus, CF

More or less Kenny Lofton… Probably lower batting average but better defense. Most importantly, still a solid OBP.

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Those are just a few ideas. Something needs to be changed to improve team OBP. Doug Melvin alluded to this in his end-of-season press conference, so, unlike the Braun-to-outfield idea, this is one problem I fully expect to be solved.

By the way, you like how a lot of my suggestions for improving OBP would involve moving Braun to the outfield? Steve, you devil you!

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Posted in Base Clogging, Milwaukee Brewers 2007

Way to go Brewer fans!

Posted on October 14, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I have to give you credit. It was a tough end to the season. I wouldn’t have blamed you if you took a couple months off to simmer. But like the loyal fans you are, you kept your nose to the grindstone. For you, there’s no such thing as an off-season. Instead, you persevered. You brought Dusty Baker back to the NL Central!

It’s a shame. That Homer Bailey had real promise. Fantasy owners, you’d better trade him soon. I also can’t wait until Adam Dunn is benched/traded for “clogging up the bases.”

I’ll end this post with some fantastic (and real) Dusty Baker quotes:

“I think walks are overrated unless you can run… If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time they’re clogging up the bases for somebody who can run.”

“Who’s been the champions the last seven, eight years? …Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? Walks help. But you ain’t going to walk across the plate. You’re going to hit across the plate. That’s the school I come from.”

“It’s called hitting, and it ain’t called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit.”

“Sooner or later, somebody is going to get hurt, and then they are going to blow it all out of proportion… But go back and look at the overall picture. For a guy who is supposed to have run pitchers into the ground, look around and see our track record of how healthy our pitchers have stayed. Who has had healthier pitchers?”

“People [always] have been trying to bring me down. Very rarely do I hear what I have done. That’s OK, that’s how it is. Actually, that makes me stronger. It’s OK. What are you going to say when I kick somebody’s [rear]?”

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Posted in Base Clogging

Where must the Brewers improve? Part 1: Defense

Posted on October 9, 2007 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Even a casual observer would be able to say that the Brewers’ defense was a huge weakness in 2007. Everyone knows about Ryan Braun’s massive error totals, Rickie Weeks’ shaky play and Prince Fielder’s suspect judgment at first.

But I’m willing to be that most people do not realize just how bad the Brewers’ defense was. In fact, it is my belief that poor defense was more responsible for the Brewers missing the playoffs than any other facet of the game (and yes, that includes managing).

In this post I will try to show just how terrible the Brewers’ defense, primarily their infield defense, was. I’d like to first throw out a disclaimer: quantifying defensive performance is inexact and flawed, but these statistics are far more telling than fielding percentage (which are based on judgment calls by a home-town scorekeeper).

——————————-

A quick aside: I was watching the Yankees-Indians game with my dad on Sunday. In the first inning, Jeter charged in on a ball and launched it past first base. The New York scorekeeper inexplicably ruled the play an infield single, even though the throw would have beat the runner to the base by about three steps.

I thought my dad made a great point when he said, “You know, Major League Baseball is a multi-billion dollar industry. You’re telling me that instead of having a home scorekeeper for each team, MLB can’t pay 15 people 70 grand a year to be official MLB scorekeepers? Heck, even pay them 100 grand, what does it matter? They could easily afford it, it would be a great job and it would eliminate home-town scoring biases.”

I can’t believe I never thought of that before, but that just makes too much sense. How has this not happened yet? Someone needs to get Bud on the phone. Ok, back to the show…

————————

Before I get into defensive stats, I’ll just mention something quickly to illustrate the poor defense in another way: Pitching stats. Here’s how the Brewers pitching staff ranked in the three areas that are completely independent of defense.

Walks Allowed: Fourth fewest

Strikeouts: Third

Home Runs Allowed: Fourth Fewest

Those three stats show that the Brewers overall had a solid pitching staff. Ready for the scary part?

Runs allowed: Ninth

If you want to look on the bright side, it’s that the Brewers’ pitching was better than it seemed. If you wanted to draw a conclusion from this, it’s clearly that the Brewers’ defense has significantly hurt their pitchers.

I’m going to focus on infield defense, since that is where the Brewers were especially poor. There are problems with these stats, which I’ll get into, but they’re more telling than error totals or fielding percentage.

Range Factor

We’ll start with range factor. Range factor is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by number of innings. Here’s how Brewer infielders stacked up.

Ryan Braun: 2.11 (Dead last among MLB third basemen… by a ton, leader is Abraham Nunez at 3.27)
J.J. Hardy: 4.00 (Dead last among MLB shortstops, leader is Troy Tulowitzki at 5.39)
Rickie Weeks: 4.74 (19th out of 24 second basemen who qualified, leader is Ian Kinsler at 5.69)
Prince Fielder: 8.49 (Dead last among MLB first basemen, leader is Lyle Overbay at 10.75)

Problems with range factor: It is affected by pitching (i.e. flyball pitchers giving infielders less chances at putouts than groundball pitchers) and performance of other infielders. Example: Fielder’s low rating is partially because of his fielding, and it’s partially because the rest of the infielders are pretty bad. Also Range Factor does take errors into account, so this number doesn’t strictly speak for the player’s range (if you make an error on a ball it means you reached it, but you don’t get an assist or putout for it).

Another interesting point here: J.J. Hardy is often touted as a good defensive shortstop. This is likely because he is pretty solid on balls he is able to reach. While he generally doesn’t make a ton of errors, his range is actually quite poor (same thing with Derek Jeter, yet how many gold gloves has he won?). The problem with judging by errors is that you can’t make an error on a ball you can’t even get to, or especially, on one you should get to.

Zone Rating

Basically, zone rating considers the percentage of balls a player reaches within his “zone.” There is a thorough explanation of zone rating, including a description of each zone, here.

Braun: .697 (again, by far the worst among MLB third basemen, leader is Pedro Feliz at .852. To reiterate, Braun missed thirty percent of balls hit to his zone.)
Hardy: .797 (20th out of 24 shortstops who qualified, leader is Omar Vizquel at .897)
Weeks: .737 (Dead last among MLB second basemen, leader is Mark Ellis at .887)
Fielder: .813 (17th among 21 first basemen who qualified, leader is Casey Kotchman at .918)

Problems with zone rating: One problem is that zone rating does not factor in defensive shifts; if you watched more than a few Brewer games in 2007 you know that the Brewers employed defensive shifts excessively (perhaps to compensate for poor range?). Another problem is that a player can actually be punished in zone rating for making a play outside of his traditional zone.

There are other measuring tools that are more telling than RF and ZR, such as Ultimate Zone Rating (which measures how many runs a player saves on defense) and Fielding Runs Above Average (which considers outside factors such as ground ball/fly ball ratio, park factors, balls in play). These ratings are difficult to find for each player, however, and Baseball Prospectus’ 2008 manual won’t come out for a few months yet. Finally, defensive metrics are constantly being tweaked and improved.

Conclusion

How-EVAH (Stephen A. Smith style), despite the flaws of these tools, you’d never want your entire infield to be at the bottom of these lists. This pretty much supports the claim that the Brewers have the worst defensive infield in baseball.

Now obviously, you take the good with the bad. Each infielder is above average offensively for his position. Prince is an offensive superstar, and in my opinion, Braun and Weeks will join him shortly (if Braun hasn’t already). Most of the players who top those defensive lists are well below average offensively. I’d also like to add that I definitely prefer good offense and bad defense to the other way around; it’s much more difficult to find good hitting middle infielders than it is to find elite defensive middle infielders.

Solution

My main concern is the defense at third base. Obviously Braun can rake, but his defense just killed the Brewers. He was far and away the worst defensive third baseman in baseball. One likes to think that he’ll get better with time–he’s only played third base for a few years. On the other hand, you wonder how much a player will improve defensively after age 24. Obviously it’s safe to say he probably won’t always be as bad as he was in ’07, but it’s anything but a lock to say Braun will eventually be serviceable defensively.

I did a quick search on some third basemen who struggled early in their career but stuck at third base nonetheless. I looked at their age 23 season, three seasons later and then 2007 to see if we might be able to get some indication of where Braun might be in the future. I would have liked to go back and get a larger sample, especially on players like Wade Boggs and George Brett (both players struggled mightily on defense when they entered the league), but zone rating and range factor really only date back to 2000 or so.

Aramis Ramirez

2001: Range Factor 2.86 Zone Rating .745

2004: Range Factor 2.24 Zone Rating .755

2007: Range Factor 2.87 Zone Rating .780

Adrian Beltre

2002: Range Factor 2.72 Zone Rating .766

2005: Range Factor 2.79 Zone Rating .794

2007: Range Factor 2.87 Zone Rating .766

Garrett Atkins

2005: (He was 25 but this was his first full season at third): Range Factor 2.63 Zone Rating .808

2007: Range Factor 2.20 Zone Rating .722

Miguel Cabrera (only 24 right now so I could only do one year’s difference)

2006: Range Factor 2.56 Zone Rating .748

2007: Range Factor 2.51 Zone Rating .714

Edwin Encarnacion (same as Miggy)

2006: Range Factor 2.62 Zone Rating .741

2007: Range Factor 2.50 Zone Rating .777

David Wright (ditto)

2006: Range Factor 2.60 Zone Rating .754

2007: Range Factor 2.73 Zone Rating .771

There aren’t many that fall into this category, unfortunately, so I wouldn’t really be able to draw much of a conclusion from this. Aramis Ramirez has turned himself into a serviceable defensive third baseman, and the same goes for Adrian Beltre. Atkins actually had a worse year this year than 2005, his first full year at third base. Encarnacion and Wright have improved, but Miggy is still awful. Many of them are still below average today, which doesn’t bode well for Braun either.

I was trying to illustrate a point by doing that, and I guess I kind of did: There is no guarantee that Braun will get better just from gaining experience playing third base. 23 is still young, but as far as skills go, it’s not that young anymore. Another crucial point to make: while some of these players were bad defenders entering the league, none of them came close to being as bad as Braun was in 2007.

The Brewers are in a very tough situation. The only option besides third would be moving Braun to an outfield spot. It’s obviously in the Brewers’ best interest to keep Braun at third base if he can play it; his offense is more valuable there than at a corner outfield position. Thing is, I’m pretty doubtful that Braun will ever be an average defensive third baseman.

My solution would be one that several bf.netters have already suggested. Starting in 2008, I’d move Braun to left field, Bill Hall to third base and Corey Hart to center field. It’s definitely a bold move, and it makes 2007 seem like a waste as far as the Bill Hall to center field experiment is concerned, but it improves two positions defensively.

Hall was understandably shaky in his first year in center, but the bottom line is he was easily last in the MLB in zone rating among center fielders. Meanwhile, Corey Hart was an elite defensive right fielder. And in 34 games in center, Hart rated among the top half of full time center fielders.

Furthermore, Bill Hall was average defensively at third base in 2005 and 2006.

If you’re into math, it looks like this.

Third Base: Bill Hall>Ryan Braun

Center Field: Corey Hart>Bill Hall

Corey Hart>Bill Hall>Ryan Braun

Putting it back into words, instead of a terrible third baseman, a bad center fielder and a great right fielder, you have an okay third baseman, a solid center fielder and an unknown in left field. Offensively, you have an average hitting third baseman in Hall, an above average hitting center fielder in Hart, and probably an above average hitting left fielder in Braun.

Sure you’d love to be able to keep Braun’s great bat at third, but his offense will play at any position. Braun will probably be poor in left field at first, but a team can afford poor defense in left a lot more than it can at third base.  Braun’s a pretty athletic guy as well, so it’s not difficult for me to imagine him becoming a pretty good left fielder.

The downside to this is that Braun goes from an elite offensive third baseman to a good offensive left fielder.  The upside is that the Brewers vastly improve upon their 2007 defense.   To me, the positive outweighs the negative.

The Brewers, in all likelihood, will not make this move.  Doug Melvin drafted Braun as a third baseman, so you can bet he will give Braun time to pan out there.  I fully understand hoping Braun becomes decent at third, but I also think the Brewers need to be realistic.  Keeping Braun at third base will hurt the team in 2008 and is probably a mistake.

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Posted in Defense, Milwaukee Brewers 2007

At least we aren’t Mets or Padres fans

Posted on October 2, 2007 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

After taking a few days to avoid posting after the Brewers were eliminated, I am now able to at least see some silver lining.  Mainly that I am not a Mets fan, so I did not see my suffer a historical collapse; or that I am not a Padres fan, so I did not see my team come within one strike of a playoff birth only to be knocked out two nights later in a gut-wrenching loss on a blown play at home plate.

There is plenty to talk about with the Brewers this year.  Did they make strides or did they miss a golden opportunity?  Obviously you can say both, but I don’t think it’s as easy as saying that they’re a year away and they’ll only get better.  But I (or we… I believe Dan will be back at some point.  And Dan, if you’re reading: No rush, dude) have all off-season to discuss some of those things, and that’s even before we get into arguably my favorite part of MLB: The off-season and Winter Meetings.

For now I’m just going to take solace in the fact that the Brewers’ collapse came in July/August rather than late September.  At least they spared me the horrible heartache and nausea a die-hard Mets or Padres fan must be feeling right now.

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Posted in Major League Baseball, Milwaukee Brewers 2007