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Entries from November 2007

This would be too good to be true

November 30, 2007 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

I don’t have much time as I am actually heading out tonight for the Winter Meetings, but multiple reports have the Brewers attempting to trade for Scott Rolen.  The offer right now is apparently centered around Rolen and Chris Capuano.

One rumor that seems reasonable enough is Rolen and either Ryan Franklin or Randy Flores for Capuano, Mench and Gwynn. If this deal happened it might actually bring tears to my eyes.  Could an off-season in which the Brewers get rid of Johnny Estrada, Kevin Mench and Tony Gwynn and move Braun off of third base get any better?

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove

Can’t wait for the cheesy headlines on this one

November 29, 2007 · 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Various news outlets, such as Buster Olney, are reporting that the Brewers are on the verge of signing reliever David Riske. Some early guesses:

Riske Business: Brew Crew sign reliever

Taking a Riske?

Worth the Riske?

Riske Brew

Game of Riske

Anyways, before the contract is disclosed, at least, this is a solid signing for the Brewers. Riske will probably be a candidate to close, but either way he’ll be a late-inning guy.

Quick look at his numbers:

2007: 69.7 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 52 Ks, 27 BBs

Career averages: 74.3 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 68 Ks, 30 BBs

So really he’s nothing spectacular, but he’s solid and likely becomes the best reliever on the Brewers.

So basically, there’s not much of a Riske on Riske!

…Ugh

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove

The bullpen is going to look VERY different

November 23, 2007 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

Well on Wednesday the White Sox signed Scott Linebrink away from the Brewers. No surprise there, as Linebrink was thought all along to be a rental who the Brewers would cash in for draft picks.

Certainly the more interesting news today is that Francisco Cordero is on the verge of leaving the Brewers. Ken Rosenthal reports that Cordero is on the verge of signing with the Reds. That links to the full article, but here’s a snippet:

Cordero is still talking to three clubs, but it is believed that the Reds have emerged as the front-runner over the Brewers and an unidentified third team.

The Brewers, who are on the verge of losing setup man Scott Linebrink to the White Sox, offered Cordero a four-year, $42 million contract, sources say.

Sort of a surprising destination, as I hadn’t heard the Reds linked with Coco at all (similar to Torri Hunter signing out of nowhere with the Angels. That 4 years/40 mil deal to Gary Matthews looks great one year in, huh?). To me the most interesting part of Rosenthal’s report is that the Brewers offered a 4 year-$42 million contract. Many, including myself, figured the Brewers may not even offer a fourth year. That’s the contract that Billy Wagner got (4 years/43 mil), so this isn’t like the Brewers’ token offer to Carlos Lee before trading him that ended up being barely half of what he got in free agency. That’s a very serious offer.

I wouldn’t really go any higher, in fact, I’m not even sure how I’d feel about that deal. Since I can’t imagine Cordero would rather pitch for the Reds if the money was similar, Cinci must have made a pretty huge offer. It would be crazy if they added a fifth year.

Of course the bummer of all of this, aside from the obvious fact that the Brewers’ bullpen is currently in shambles, is their crummy luck with compensation picks. Since both the Reds and White Sox were bad this season, their first round pick is top-15 protected. This means that instead of two picks in the 16-30 range along with two sandwich picks, they’ll get two picks in the 46-65 range, depending on how many sandwich picks. Even worse, if the White Sox sign another free agent that ranks above Linebrink, such as Aaron Rowand, the compensation for Linebrink falls to a third rounder.

Regardless, the Brewers will still have extra picks at the beginning of the draft, which they haven’t had under Melvin. And sure the bullpen looks bad right now, but with Jenkins, Cordero and Linebrink off the books, the Brewers have a big chunk of change to play with. It’s certainly enough to add a starting outfielder/third baseman and a few relievers to fill out the bullpen.

I think there’s a decent shot that the Brewers swing a trade for a high-end reliever, such as Brian Fuentes, Chad Cordero, Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks or even Huston Street. A Fuentes/Capuano trade has been thrown around in a few places, and that seems to make sense. Fuentes is available due to his falling out last season and the emergence of Manny Corpas, yet Fuentes’ numbers are still very solid away from Coors. Capuano would be a good fit at Coors because he rarely throws breaking balls.

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Edit:

I cleaned up the blogroll and added a couple new sites that are great sources:  mlb4u and tangotiger.

I strongly recommend people check out the latest post at firejoemorgan. Link on our sidebar. It’s about how Jimmy Rollins shouldn’t have been MVP, which I discussed a couple posts ago. And it’s also hilarious.

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove · Transactions

So long Johnny Hustle

November 21, 2007 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

While Guillermo Mota isn’t anything to be excited about, the Brewers should definitely be glad to be rid of Johnny Estrada. We heard about him clashing with teammates and coaches in the past, and that was apparently the case again. In so many words, we learned that Estrada did not see eye to eye with Mike Maddux on how to handle pitchers. When you combine that with his poor performance on the field, it’s easy to see why he’ll be on his fourth team in four seasons.

Mota is apparently in the mix for the bullpen next season. He could be decent, but at 3.2 mil I have to wonder whether the Brewers would have better off just non-tendering Estrada.

Here are Mota’s 2007 numbers. He missed the first 50 games due to a failed drug test, which I suppose is something else that may hurt his value.

59.3 IP, 47 Ks, 18 BBs, 5.76 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 74 ERA+

Not very pretty. He’ll be 34 years old, which isn’t too old for a reliever, but he’s really not very good. The scouting report on him is that he throws hard but doesn’t have much movement. Glancing at message boards, Mets fans seem to be as happy to see him go as I am to see Estrada go. At the same time I don’t have a huge problem with him, as the Brewers aren’t in much of a position to turn down a power arm in the pen.

Switching gears, the Brewers came to terms with Jason Kendall. The dollar amount hasn’t been revealed yet, but the deal is for one year with a vesting option for a second. I’m not too excited about it, but at least it’s only one year.

Kendall unfortunately is not much of a defensive upgrade, but he has much more speed than Estrada (who doesn’t?) and will likely be an offensive upgrade as far as OBP is concerned.  Much has been made of his bad year in 2007, and rightfully so–it was really bad.  But a quick look at the numbers indicates it may have been an aberration.

Kendall’s OBP

2004- .399
2005 – .345
2006 – .367
2007 – .261 for the A’s
2007 – .362 for the Cubs

.330 is probably a good line to set for 2008, and I’d feel pretty good taking the over.  Compared to J-Strad’s .296 it would look like Johnny Bench.

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove · Transactions

New catcher?

November 20, 2007 · 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

The good news is that it appears Johnny Estrada is on his way out of town. The bad news is they didn’t really improve at catcher, at least not very much. TH reports that the Brewers are on the verge of signing Jason Kendall to be the starting catcher. Kendall had an awful year offensively and was only better than our own Johnny Estrada at throwing out base-stealers.

On the other hand, Estrada may be my least-favorite Brewer ever, and Kendall is pretty much his opposite. Estrada never saw a pitch he didn’t want to lunge at; Kendall takes a lot of pitches. Estrada is lazy; Kendall hustles (not that I care too much about this… Craig Counsell hustles too and he’s bad). Estrada’s game-calling has been questioned; Kendall has a reputation as a good pitch-caller. Estrada’s attitude is questionable; Kendall is supposed to be a good clubhouse guy.

At the same time, I’m not going to pretend like I didn’t make fun of the Cubs for trading for him last season (although that was mainly because of his contract; he made 12 mil last season). I’ll be pretty grossed out if he makes much more than $4 mil a year. This really says that the Brewers want to get rid of Johnny Estrada and they don’t care who replaces him, and that’s something I can get on board with, but I would have liked to see a bigger upgrade for the money they’ll likely be paying Kendall.

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Other things of note:

  • Jimmy Rollins wins the MVP. Not a terrible choice, but other players were more deserving. Namely Hanley Ramirez (.948 OPS at SS!), Chipper Jones, Chase Utley (probably front-runner if he wasn’t injured) and Miguel Cabrera. At least Matt Holliday and his .860 road OPS didn’t win). Prince took third, which is kind of cool too.
  • The latest hot rumor at brewerfan has Ben Sheets going to Atlanta. According to a poster there, his source (take that at face value) says the Braves offered Jeff Francoeur and Rafael Soriano and that Melvin declined. The source then said that the deal was expanded to Sheets, Hall, prospect for Francoeur, Soriano, Kelly Johnson, Blaine Boyer, prospect and that the teams will further discuss this deal at the Winter Meetings. Now Ben Sheets is my favorite player, but if that deal is on the table the Brewers probably need to take it. Their offense would be the best in the NL. I’m actually skeptical that the Braves would give up a great reliever and two good young hitters in that deal, so who knows.
  • Speaking of the Winter Meetings, for those who don’t know, I’m going down to Nashville to attend the job fair. I’m not really sure what I’ll see/hear, but I’ll bring my laptop to give any cool updates.

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove · Cornucopia of thoughts

Congrats to Roy Braun

November 12, 2007 · 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Ryan Braun won the rookie of the year today in the closest race in NL History over Troy Tulowitzki.  Despite Braun’s completely brutal defense, I have to agree with this result.  He simply had a legendary offensive season for a rookie, and Tulo’s numbers away from Coors were largely unimpressive.

TH at the JS reports in their blog that only one second place vote went to a player besides Tulo and Braun:  Kyle Kendrick.  Some idiot gave fifth-place finisher a second place vote and gave Braun a third place vote, which was the reason it was so close.

Either way, this is pretty cool.  Good for Braun and the Brewers’ organization.

Now, to the potentially even better news…

Apparently Keith Law was on the Hot List and reported that the Brewers are almost for sure going to move Braun to left field!  Stay tuned, as this to me could end up going as far towards improving the Brewers as any move they make this off-season.

Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2007

Make sure you use an oven mitt

November 9, 2007 · 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

‘Cause that stove’s getting hot!

I can’t remember the trade rumor mill ever being this active this early. It seems like most teams are starting to finally use trading as the first option over high-priced free agents.

Rumors are rumors, but the quality of names being reported as possibly available are ridiculous, particularly starting pitchers. Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, A.J. Burnett, Scott Kazmir, Joe Blanton, Danny Haren and even our own beloved Ben Sheets.

Now of course that doesn’t mean much. I’d be shocked if more than one of Peavy, Bedard, Sheets, Kazmir or Haren were traded. There’s probably a good chance that Santana and Burnett get dealt, and a decent chance for Blanton as well. Throw in the fact that Miguel Cabrera is all but a lock to be traded and you have what could end up being the highest-impact trade market in a long time.

From the Brewers’ perspective, as much as I hate to say it, it probably makes sense to at least consider trading Sheets. He hasn’t pitched a full season in a few years and his contract is up after ‘09, so they might as well see what’s out there.

With that said, the reasons why the Brewers should consider trading Sheets is the same reason why teams probably won’t make a big offer for him. Why would a team give a premium package of young players for one year of a pitcher who hasn’t stayed healthy? It could happen, I suppose, and if for example the Dodgers offered Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton I would think the Brewers would jump at it, but I don’t think an offer like that is likely at all.

My guess is they end up keeping Sheets for ‘08 and hope to work out an extension early in the season or in Spring Training.

Other Brewer-related rumors:

  • So far the Royals and Padres have shown interest in Geoff Jenkins. I’m pretty sure the USC guy will end up in San Diego.
  • The Rangers are once again showing interest in Tony Gwynn Jr. They were talking about him at the deadline for Eric Gagne, so maybe Doug can get a different reliever. I certainly feel that Gwynn’s perceived value is greater than his actual value, so they might as well take advantage of that fact and trade him.
  • The Brewers are interested in left-handed setup man Ron Mahay, who was very solid last season. The problem there is he is the top lefty reliever and probably the best free agent reliever after Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero, so there is sure to be competition.
  • Speaking of Cordero, the Astros look like they’re trying very hard to sign him. They just traded Brad Lidge so there is a definite need there. By the way, I thought the Lidge trade was awful for Houston. He was their biggest trade chip, and they got back a light hitting center fielder (Michael Bourn), a 12th-man type reliever (Geoff Geary) and a mid-level third base prospect (Mike Costanzo).
  • So far the only reliable report on who the Brewers are targeting for left field is Randy Winn. He’s not quite the name I was hoping for, but they could do worse. He’s a switch hitter who will put up about a .350 OBP and play great outfield defense. On the other hand he doesn’t have any power, they’d have to give up something decent in a trade and he is owed 16 mil over the next two seasons. I’d still rather see Austin Kearns, Ryan Church or Luke Scott.
  • Ken Rosenthal has also reported that some teams have shown interest in Dave Bush and Chris Capuano.  The Brewers will almost surely trade one of Bush, Vargas and Capuano, and probably two.  I expect Capuano and Vargas to be dealt, mainly because Bush is probably the best bet to convert to a reliever if necessary.

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove

First long-shot Brewers rumor of the off-season: Curt Schilling

November 1, 2007 · 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

We usually see one or two of these in the off-season: A semi-premier free agent who the Brewers pursue with an outside shot of signing. Last year it was Jason Schmidt (whew, dodged a bullet there). In recent years it was Troy Glaus and Matt Clement (another bullet dodged). Suppan was one of these as well, although he’s the first one they actually signed.

The first one this year is Curt Schilling. Schilling recently posted a list of teams he’d consider on his (wordpress, represent!) blog 38 pitches, and the Brewers made the first cut. Now today Haudricourt reports that Melvin will at least talk to him.

Usually I’d be against pursuing a 40-year old pitcher who will cost a ton of money. Schilling may be an exception, though, because he has said he expects to sign a one-year deal. This seems to be a good match with the Brewers, who really have this season to spend a bit. After 2008 Fielder, Hart and Weeks all hit arbitration and Sheets’ contract will be up. Now it will probably take at least $12 million, but again, it’s completely off the books after next season. It’s really pretty low-risk.
It’s rare to have a pitcher of Schilling’s caliber agree to a one-year deal. He certainly is not the dominant pitcher he once was, but his 3.87 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the American League would look pretty nice in the Brewers’ rotation next season.

Just to get way ahead of ourselves, let’s check out the hypothetical rotation:

  1. Sheets
  2. Gallardo
  3. Schilling
  4. Villanueva
  5. Suppan

That’s a pretty crazy upgrade over 2007. In that scenario I see Bush moving to the bullpen and Vargas and Capuano traded. Manny Parra would also likely stick in the pen for one year.

As always with free agency, you have other teams to beat out. If Boston isn’t interested, Schilling will still have a handful of suitors. An obvious match would be Philadelphia, where Schilling spent the prime of his career.

Sure it’s likely to come up empty, but there’s no reason to take a shot. All I’m saying is I would be much less annoyed by Schilling’s tendency to speak up on any issue if he was helping the Brewers make the playoffs.

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Other odds and ends

Jeffress busted again

Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers’ top pitching prospect and first round pick in 2006, has failed a drug test–for the second time–in three months. Melvin wouldn’t say, but Haudricourt hinted that it was for marijuana. His first failed test resulted in a 50-game suspension. This test will yield no automatic suspension since it was not given by MLB, so it remains to see if the Brewers will issue further punishment.

Needless to say, this is pretty frustrating. After you fail a test, you know you’re going to be tested again. How could he not know this was coming? This leaves his status as a promising prospect in jeopardy, and also leaves the Brewers minor league system without much in the way of high-ceiling pitchers.

Linebrink’s officially a Type A

The Elias Sports Bureau has ranked players for this off-season. Obviously Francisco Cordero is a Type A free agent. The good news, as expected, is that Scott Linebrink also qualified as Type A. This softens the blow of losing three young pitchers for Linebrink, but as Melvin said, he probably wouldn’t have even made the trade if he didn’t think Linebrink would be a Type A.

Another ‘82 Brewer on the coaching staff

But this one I’m pretty happy about. Ted Simmons will be the new bench coach, sliding Dale Sveum back to third base coach. Simmons is widely respected as a sharp baseball mind, and to be honest, I’m much more confident in Simmons’ in-game decision-making that Yost’s. Here’s hoping this will help Ned cut back on his Sha-wuuhhh??s next year.

Categories: 2008 Hot Stove