Monthly Archives: December 2007

Oswalt, then pray for four days of rain

Posted by Steve

A couple of the Brewers’ NL Central foes made big time deals today. One should be bad news to the rest of the division, the other, not so much.

We’ll start with the bad news, which is the Cubs’ signing of Japanese free agent Kosuke Fukudome. It’s never easy to guess how a foreign pro will perform in MLB, but PECOTA projects him as .289/.401/.504/.905. Those are some huge numbers and if he’s anything close to that he’ll be a great addition batting second and playing right field for the Cubbies. It’s a 4 year/$48 mil deal so it’s definitely not cheap, but money isn’t a big deal to Chicago. Bottom line is that he’ll almost certainly make the Cubs better.

On to the goofy, head-scratching news. The Astros acquired Miguel Tejada today in a six player deal from Baltimore. The Stros sent Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Dennis Sarfate and third baseman Michael Costanzo to Baltimore.

Luke Scott is the main major league piece, as he’s a nice lefty hitter who I would have liked the Brewers to consider. Albers and Patton are two of Houston’s top young starters, and although Albers took his lumps for much of last season, he’ll only be 25. Patton debuted at the end of last season at age 21, so you know he’s highly regarded. Sarfate, the long-time Brewer prospect before being dealt to Houston last season, may make it as a reliever, and Costanzo is power hitting third base prospect they got from Philadelphia in the Lidge trade.

This is the type of trade that a team might make when they think they are one player away. In other words, a team like the Brewers! This is similar to the Crew trading Gabe Gross, Manny Parra, Mat Gamel and Jeremy Jeffress for one player (sidebar: Manny Parra, Mat Gamel and Tony Gwynn Jr. could probably bring in a sweet player without giving up anything from the MLB club. Just saying…). Thing is, this type of package should bring in a much better player than Tejada for more than one or two years. I expect something like that to be able to get Carl Crawford, or maybe even Dan Haren. Instead the Astros get a former All-Star who definitely appears to be trending downward.

Now Tejada’s a big name, but that’s more because of what he did a few years ago than in recent history, namely last season when he dropped to a .797 OPS. (Luke Scott’s was .855, granted mainly against RHP), only he’ll be making $13 million in his age 32 season after which he has the option of opting out of his contract. In other words, the Astros have mortgaged much of their future for what could be one year of Tejada. Making matters worse is Rosenthal’s report that Tejada will play shortstop rather than moving to third like many have speculated he’d do upon being traded. So now the Astros will take a step down defensively from a top-two defensive shortstop in MLB (Adam Everett) to one who may be below average.

Like I said, dealing prospects is a good move if you feel it will put you over the top. Thing is, even with this trade, Houston isn’t close to contending. Let’s take a glance at their team.

Outfield: Lee in left, Bourne in center, Pence in right. Good outfield, particularly at the corners.

Infield: Berkman at first, presumably Everett at second, Tejada at short, and probably Wigginton third (maybe Loretta?). I also don’t know what they plan to do at catcher… Not sure if they’ll bring back Ausmus.

Pitching: This is where it gets comical. I have no idea who Houston will send out to the mound in 2008. Here’s a glimpse at last year’s rotation.

1. Roy Oswalt

2. Woody Williams (gone)

3. Brandon Backe (meh)

4. Wandy Rodriguez

5. Matt Albers (gone)

My other candidate for post title was “Introducing Wandy Rodriguez, number two starter for your Houston Astros!” Oswalt is obviously great, but the Astros pitching staff after that is brutal. Rodriguez is good as a 4/5 guy. Backe hasn’t shown anything other than a propensity to get hit hard since returning from injury, and then… What? I can’t wait until they give Paul Byrd or Carlos Silva a $45 million deal and still take fifth place.

What bullpen problems?

Posted by Steve

Less than 24 hours after I posted how I really don’t think the Brewers’ bullpen is in rough shape comes news that will turn in into a strength. The Brewers are apparently on the verge of signing Eric Gagne.

There’s a very good chance that Gagne-Cordero and Riske-Linebrink could each be a wash, meaning the Brewers have added two experienced in addition to that. All of a sudden someone like Turnbow could be trade bait.

The fact that it is likely a one-year deal makes this move risk free, and a great signing in my opinion.

Edit:I also just realized that Gagne is a Type B free agent, which means the Brewers won’t even need to surrender a draft pick for him.  Absolutely nothing not to like about this move!

Slowly but surely

Posted by Steve

Add Salomon Torres to the barrel of relievers the Brewers are collecting this season. The Brewers acquired him from the Pirates for a pair of relief prospects, Marino Salas and Kevin Roberts. Roberts was likely the more valuable player of the two prospects, but both were at least a few years from a possible impact at the Major League Level.

This is probably my favorite transaction so far this season for the Brewers. Not because Torres is anything too great, but because it was a good value trade. The Pirates are really selling pretty low on Torres in this deal, who could have brought back some very good talent a couple years ago. Torres had a poor year last year as far as ERA is concerned, but his secondary numbers weren’t all that different from the previous three seasons where he was quite effective.

Another appealing part of this deal is Torres’ contract. It truly makes this deal a low-risk/relatively high reward type of trade. He’s making 3.2 mil in ’08, which isn’t anything to sneeze at, but it’s also not a lot when compared to what set-up type pitchers are getting in today’s market. He then has a 300K buyout for ’09, so if he doesn’t work out they can just let him go.

It may sound strange, but I actually like the current bullpen more than last year’s version. Obviously no one pitcher is as good as Cordero, but there’s more depth in the middle-late innings. Last year’s set-up guys were pretty much down to just Turnbow and Shouse before Linebrink arrived, and Turnbow obviously had more than his share of struggles. This year you have Riske, who I’d argue is at worst a wash from Linebrink and probably an upgrade. Then to make up for the loss of Cordero, you have Mota and Torres. Certainly guys like Torres, and especially Mota could end up flaming out, but relievers are pretty volatile from year to year so there’s always a chance they can bounce back.

What the Brewers have now are four pitchers for the back end of the bullpen: Derrick Turnbow, David Riske, Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota. Each has some history of struggling, but each also has a history of success at the major league level. Same for Matt Wise, who people tend to forget was good before the second half of last year, and Brian Shouse.

It may not be very exciting, but this is typically the way the Brewers have built a pitching staff under Doug Melvin: building depth rather than making a big splash. If your ace reliever gets signed away to a huge deal, the next best thing is to bring in as many “next step down” type pitchers as possible. We’ve seen the Brewers do this with guys like Dan Kolb, Matt Wise and Derrick Turnbow, and none of that group really had any sustained MLB success when they arrived. The difference here is that these pitchers are not projects.

Small moves adding up

In fact, the entire off-season is going that way so far. There haven’t been any big moves, but the Brewers have quietly improved in a few areas. They have made a probable upgrade at catcher, and they have added three relievers to replace Linebrink and Cordero without giving up any major league arms.

Rolen deal still alive?

The Cardinals’ situation with Scott Rolen seems to take a new twist every day. Rolen’s rocky relationship with Tony La Russa is well-documented, and it seems that it’s now beyond repair. The two have been exchanging some verbal blows through the media, and it’s really making new GM Jon Mozeliak’s job difficult. Complicating things even more is Rolen’s full no-trade clause, and the speculation that Milwaukee is his number one preference.

St. Louis probably prefers not to trade Rolen to an NL Central team, but the odds of another team who fits the qualifications (has a need for a third baseman, can take on Rolen’s contract AND then Rolen would need to approve the trade) offering more than the Brewers seems pretty low. It comes down to whether the Cardinals are willing to take an inferior deal and/or eat more of the contract just to keep him away from Milwaukee.

With all this considered, I still think there is a pretty strong chance that Rolen will end up in Milwaukee.

A couple Brewer Notes

Posted by Dan

Brewers sign David Riske (3 years/13 million, club option 4th year): One of the better relievers available this offseason, Riske should help solidify the Brewer pen. His contract could be worth up to 20 million over 3 years depending on incentives. Last year Riske posted a 2.45 ERA in 69 innings with the Royals. While he is still definitly a solid pen arm, Riske did raise his strand rate last season to an unsustainable 90% which led to his FIP being 4.41. All this adds up to a very small chance he matches his 2.45 ERA this year, though a move to the NL seems to help every pitcher.

Brewers rumored to make offer to 2B Tadahito Iguchi: Iguchi is nothing too special, and you would assume he (hopefully) would be nothing more than a bench player/ spot starter. In a small sample size of 188 AB after the break (right after his move to the NL) last year Iguchi posted .287 BA and .793 OPS (.367 OBP) which are a little better than his career numbers in Chicago.

Scott Rolen deal appears dead: Everything from the winter meetings is reporting this deal a long shot to get done anymore. I can’t say I am too angry — Rolen would have been a decent pickup but salary and injury concerns made me a little weary.