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Entries from June 2008

Quick Prospect Update

June 30, 2008 · 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I’m on a posting kick, so why not rip off another one? Now I know how Michael Jordan felt when he was “in the zone.”

I saw in the JS that Mat Gamel was 5-5 yesterday, which is what motivated me to make this post. Three minor leaguers right now, who in my opinion are the Brewers’ top three prospects, are really playing well as of late.

Mat Gamel

Gamel has been a dominating offensive player all season for Huntsville. His current line is Chipper Jones-esque: .379/.442/.636 for a gaudy 1.078. Unfortunately, his defense does not appear to be improving, as he has 22 errors already at third base. Errors are far from a good metric for defense, but it’s all that’s readily available for minor league stats.

Matt LaPorta

LaPorta’s is currently hitting .294/.406/.592 for a .999 OPS. What a bum, dropping below 1.000. Actually, the encouraging thing about LaPorta is that he has a huge OBP with a fairly sustainable .294 average. Gamel’s .442 OBP is pretty inflated by an unsustainably high batting average.

Both Gamel and LaPorta are putting up great numbers in a tough league, and both profile to be above-average hitters in the big leagues. It’s hard to say which hitter is more valuable; LaPorta seems to have more power while Gamel hits for a better average. Gamel is lefty and LaPorta is righty, which would seem to favor Gamel, but LaPorta is doing pretty well defensively in left while Gamel is still struggling at third. Unfortunately, we may find out pretty quickly which player the Brewers value more, as the Crew is rumored to be shopping for a frontline MLB pitcher. Hopefully any deal they make will not include Gamel, LaPorta or the next player I’m highlighting, Jeremy Jeffress.

Jeremy Jeffress

Jeffress is picking up where he left off before his suspensions. In 47.2 innings this season, he has a 4.34 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 65 strikeouts and 18 walks. As indicated by the insane strikeout totals, Jeffress is still overpowering hitters with his crazy velocity. At least as encouraging is his relatively low walk totals. 3.6 K/BB is a very nice ratio.

It sounds bad, but the suspension could actually turn out to be a good thing in the long run for Jeffress if he pans out. The window for pitching injuries is much bigger for an 18 or 19 year old pitcher (just ask Mark Rogers, who was recently shut down AGAIN with shoulder trouble), when the player is still growing. The older young pitchers get, the lower the risk of serious injury. It’s why high school pitchers are so much riskier than college pitchers in the draft. Anyway, with Jeffress sitting out for about a year, you could argue that he was at least resting his arm and staying healthy. He has an unlimited ceiling if he can get everything together off the field.

Categories: Prospects/Minor Leagues

Goal: Split the series

June 30, 2008 · 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Sort of a rough series in Minnesota, but as a baseball fan it was awesome watching Kevin Slowey pitch basically a flawless game. The Brewers were only able to hit the ball twice all game—both by Corey Hart—and Slowey missed his target about five times the entire game. Bill made a good point about him hiding the ball (see, I have the ability to give Bill some credit), and after that I paid attention to it. Slowey hardly reveals the ball to the hitter until he is releasing it, which is probably how he can pitch so well with a 91 mph fastball.

Anyway. The Brewers are still in decent shape for the road trip. The Atlanta series put them in good position for a 5-5 road trip, which would have to be deemed a success considering the three-city trip and the quality of their opponents. It’s now at the point where the only thing that could make the road trip a big-time failure would be to get swept by Arizona in four games. One win puts them at 4-6, but the realistic goal should be to split the series for a .500 trip.

If the Brewers don’t crap the bed in Arizona, they’ll be sitting with a very solid record and an opportunity to gain some ground with a very advantageous-looking 10-game homestand against Pittsburgh, Colorado and Cincinnati.

Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2008

Manny Parra=Wind Beneath Bill’s Wings

June 30, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

There was no Scouting Report of the Week last week because I attended three of the games and also missed the one day game, so there wasn’t much to choose from. I did happen to catch the tail end of the segment while walking through the concourse last Sunday, and noticed one of the keys on Manny Parra was “Manny-ing up.” So that had to be a gem.

This week’s winner is yet again about Manny Parra, who clearly brings out the best (worst?) in Bill. Again, I didn’t see this one live—Dan told me about it, so I didn’t hear word-for-word how they were described.

Six Pack

No Walks

M&M

Six Pack. Manny Parra is a chiseled, barrel-chested Adonis with a washboard stomach. Or this is referring to Manny having six straight wins entering the game. (Side note: I think watching Manny Parra pitch is the pitching equivalent of watching Ryan Braun hit. Parra is so talented, yet he walks too many guys and throws way too many pitches. He could be a 1-2 type pitcher if he simply attacked more. Just like Braun being super-good yet swinging at garbage pitches.)

No walks. Speaking of Manny’s walks, Bill lands on it here. Obviously it’s a perfectly good point, because he walks too many guys, but it’s not really a scouting report. Plus, not walking guys is another one of those generic points that is crucial for the success of ANY pitcher.

M&M. Earlier this season was Manny’s “first time,” and now we see that he loves candy. Is he even younger than everyone thought? As it turns out, M&M actually refers to Mauer and Morneau. So basically, it’s a scouting report on the Twins rather than the pitcher. And by scouting report, I mean simply a true statement: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau play for the Twins.

Categories: Bill's Scouting Report of the Week

Funny or terrifying?

June 24, 2008 · 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I was watching the White Sox-Dodgers game and saw this doozy of a commercial.  Man alive.

Categories: Uncategorized

Braun to the All-Star Game? I say Prince!

June 23, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

Seems I ruffled a few feathers with my Braun All-Star post. Believe it or not though, I don’t actually hate the players on the team I root for. To prove that point, I’m proposing we start a campaign for Prince Fielder to the team. After a great homestand, Prince is in pretty good position and is at least as deserving as Braun—more deserving, in my opinion.

Prince: .292/.380/.528/.908

Braun: .285/.323/.563/.886

Braun is outslugging Fielder by 35 points, but that doesn’t come close to making up for the 57 points of OBP he’s giving up to Prince. Now they shouldn’t be compared in a vacuum, as first base has the highest offensive expectations of any position, so let’s see how they rank at their position. These are how they rank among players with at least 200 at-bats.

Prince’s ranks among NL first basemen:

Batting Average: 8th (two points away from fifth)

Home Runs: 5th

On-Base Percentage: 5th

Slugging Percentage: 5th (I know I said it’s redundant to use slugging and home runs, but I’m just listing it to list it)

OPS: 4th

Prince is fourth in the NL in OPS, and one of the guys ahead of him is Albert Pujols. Depending on his health, there’s a chance he’ll either be hurt for the game or choose to pass on the invitation and take the weekend off.

Meanwhile, here’s Braun.

Batting Average: 14th

Home Runs: 1st

On-Base Percentage: 30th

Slugging Percentage: 3rd

OPS: 8th

Another thing to keep in mind: Last year the NL took four first basemen and seven outfielders. Those are the ranks you want to be in if you want to make the team, and in reality it’s often even lower as players who don’t deserve spots are voted in as starters (see Griffy, Fukudome and Soriano this year for prime examples of that). Prince’s numbers have him solidly in the top five; I’d argue he’s number four right now (again, the injured Pujols is one of the guys ahead of him). It’s impossible for me to say Braun ranks higher than eighth among outfielders, and that’s being generous. I’ve been over my reasons already, so I’ll leave it at that. Given that the game is in Yankee Stadium and will therefore incorporate a DH, that probably makes Fielder even more likely.

So on purely offensive numbers, Fielder is more deserving that Ryan Braun. The reason I’d say Braun could be close is defense. Braun is serviceable in left while Fielder is the worst defensive first baseman in the league.

So let’s just say for the sake of argument that they’re equally deserving. Braun is getting all the hype for the ASG, but have you heard anything about getting Prince in the game? I haven’t. I understand that’s because he’s only come on recently, but that shouldn’t matter, so let’s get going. Mobilize the Prince Parade today! Vote Prince Fielder to the 2008 MLB All-Star game!

Photo from deadspin.com

Categories: Milwaukee Brewers 2008

“In other words, Russell Branyan was the balls.”

June 19, 2008 · 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Crazy flippin’ game today.  Awesome performance from Dave Bush, and the pen almost gave it away.  But mainly, I’m here to post about the most intriguing man to walk the Earth: Russell Oles Branyan (yep, that’s his real middle name.  So badass.)

Do yourself a favor and go to ESPN’s state page.  Click on OPS.  Ok, so he has only 62 at-bats.  But he’s LEADING THE MAJOR LEAGUES IN OPS.  Another fun way to look at it:  Branyan has 20% more home runs thanthe home run leader for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he has 62 ABs.  Tee hee hee.

At this point it’s just funny to me.  Geoff Jenkins went on a ridiculous home run binge several years ago, but I don’t really remember anything quite like this from a Brewer.

Of course, it’s not all positive in my eyes.  What the crap took so long to get him up here?  Gwynn sucking up those critical pinch hit at bats that could have gone to Branyan hurt, and I’m still embarrassed that Branyan wasn’t up to DH in the series in Fenway.

Branyan has been raking all season between AAA and MLB, so it’s remotely possible his adjustment to his batting stance will allow him to finish 2008 with monster numbers.  At this point I’m ready to just sit back and enjoy the ride.

By DougJones43 of brewerfan.net

Categories: Jack Bauer wears Russell Branyan pajamas

Bill Strikes again (6/18/08)

June 19, 2008 · 1 Comment

Posted by Dan

I’m bored with nothing to do, some I’m going to criticize Bill’s scouting report on A.J. Burnett for today: (And a Bill quote as I type this)

June Gloom

National League

Road Warrior

First off, Burnett has only made 3 starts in June, so to even comment on the gloominess (is that a word?) seems premature. But let’s pretend it isn’t and look at the three starts:

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K

4.1 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5K

8.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8K

Clearly, June Gloom means that of his three starts this month, 1 was bad. Granted, it was really bad. But for the month of June he has a 10.6 K/9 rate. His BB rate is certainly a high (5.8/ 9 IP) but let’s face it, Bill looked at his 6 ERA for June and decided “June Gloom” was fitting. Now, what does “National League” mean? Clearly the Brewers are in the National League and Burnett used to be (2005). I didn’t really catch his commentary on this point as I was scrambling to write the points down before they were appropriately removed from the screen for all-time, but I would love to see Yost firing up the guys before the game by saying, “Alright guys! Remember, this guy used to be in the National League! And we are now! You know what that means!” The heart of the Brewers lineup (Fielder, Braun and Hart) had like 100 AB total before 2006 so I just don’t get the significance of this point. Lastly, Bill anoints Burnett a “Road Warrior”. True enough, this year Burnett has a pretty extreme Home/Away split (8.16/2.98 ) which is obviously sample size related. (54 innings @ home, 32 on the road). For the rest of his career Burnett features a Home/Away line of 3.51/4.15 which obviously seems to disprove the “Road Warrior” title. It really is like Bill doesn’t even try. I would totally prefer he just tell us what pitches he throws and be done with it.

Finally, as I was typing this, Corey Hart smoked a 2-run double to center on an 0-2, belt high, heart of the plate fastball from Burnett. Bill questioned his pitch “selection.” Something tells me, that Zaun wasn’t back there giving the “meatball” sign. I have a hunch, that the problem was in the pitch’s execution.

Categories: Bill's Scouting Report of the Week

And Sheets doesn’t deserve the Cy Young, either!

June 18, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

The night of my “Braun doesn’t deserve to make the All-Star Game” post, he went 3-4 with two massive homers. Figure I’d try this thing again.

Also, the stupid Brewers had five stupid home runs last night.  Don’t you just HATE when they rely on the long ball?

Categories: Uncategorized

Why vote for Braun when he doesn’t deserve it?

June 17, 2008 · 8 Comments

Posted by Steve

Updated All-Star balloting was released today and Braun is up to fourth in the voting. Call me crazy, but my reaction to this was: Why?

Ryan Braun is tenth in OPS among National League outfielders with 175 ABs and a 34th in on-base percentage. He’s currently rocking a woeful .316 OBP.

People are pointing to his hit totals and home run totals, but that is already factored into OPS. Using home runs and OPS as two separate arguments for Braun making the team is like saying, “Brady Clark had 184 hits, AND 149 singles!”

Braun has been a player with incredible power and not much else. His slugging % is off the charts, but OBP is widely considered to be at least 1.8 times as important as slugging. He isn’t even the most valuable offensive player on the team at this point, as that is more than likely Prince Fielder; Fielder is doing a solid job of getting on base even though his power numbers have been disappointing.

Outfielders who unquestionably deserve spots over Braun include: Nate McLouth, Ryan Ludwick, Pat Burrell, Matt Holiday and Jason Bay. Arguments could be made for Rowand, Church and Nady over him as well, and Adam Dunn’s offense has been better than Braun’s, except I’ll give Braun the nod over him for defense.

I just don’t understand the great movement going on to get Braun in the All-Star team. I know it’s nothing but a popularity contest anyway, as the top three in votes right now are Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Ken Griffey Jr (disgusting, isn’t it?). That doesn’t mean I have to blindly vote for Braun when I don’t think he deserves it, though.

Categories: Uncategorized

An unprecedented event

June 16, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Posted by Steve

We have a first-ever in our Scouting Report of the Week segment – a tie. There is routinely more than one noteworthy report each week, but I generally am able to choose a favorite. Not this week.

The first one goes to Roy Oswalt. This is definitely one of the best of the season, and at the time I considered it a lock to win.

Real Hard

Real Soft

Location?

If you read those three out loud, it sounds like you’re arguing with yourself and suddenly become confused.

Real Hard, Real Soft refers to the discrepancy in velocity between Oswalt’s fastball and his slow curveball. Really, this is one thing, and he could have covered two points with one “discrepancy” point. Way to cop out Bill.

Location? I actually LOL’d when I saw this one live. The way I read it in my head, Bill is dumbfounded by the concept. I think this referred to Oswalt’s control or some other key for pitching that is totally nonspecific to Roy Oswalt.

On to the other winner, Kevin Slowey.

Control Pitcher

One Walk

Home Runs

Like I said, I didn’t expect any to rival Roy’s, but my brother referred me to a report where Bill said the same thing twice, resulting in an even bigger cop-out than the real hard, real soft thing.

Control Pitcher. Ok, so that means that he doesn’t walk guys. Got it.

One Walk. This refers to the fact that Slowey had issued one walk over his previous three outings. Wow, that’s pretty impressive. So that obviously means that he doesn’t walk guys. Heyyyy, waaaait a second! I feel like I just heard that somewhere! Bill could have easily mentioned this little nugget in his first point about Slowey being a control pitcher.

Home Runs. Nothing too exciting or interesting here, except for that you could make the case pretty easily that the fact that he gives up homers is a direct result of… not walking guys. I think he may have covered that already, though. Aside- Slowey has seven walks in 52 innings. Pretty sweet.

Alright, that’s it for this week. I wonder if we should have a Bill’s Scouting Report of the Year at the end of the season? It would be cool if we chose like 8 finalists and put it up to a vote, but I’d rather save myself the embarrassment of putting a poll up on the blog only to have six votes.

Categories: Bill's Scouting Report of the Week