Monthly Archives: July 2008

Overreact much? Weeks is still the best option.

Posted on July 29, 2008 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

The airwaves and internets are lighting up with Rickie Weeks hatred. This morning on the radio, the topic was “Are you done with Rickie Weeks?” Brewerfan is in an uproar and overwhelmingly favors benching Weeks in favor of Ray Durham. Finally, Tom Haudricourt made this absurd post on the JS blog today. “It’s big boy time” actually made me laugh out loud. What a joke. Good luck getting Yost or Melvin to talk to you again TH.

It’s seems painfully clear to me that this is an overreaction to what was a miserable game by Weeks last night. It was just about as bad as it can get… but it was one game. The Brewers have stuck with Weeks all season, so why would they bench him now that Weeks is actually hitting? Rickie has a .923 OPS since the All-Star Break, good enough for third in the NL among second basemen since the break. This is what the Brewers have been waiting for. No other player on the team has the ability to put up those numbers at second base.

You may say that Rickie’s problem is defense, and you’d certainly be right. That was the worst part about his game yesterday, without a doubt. Weeks is still below average defensively, but here’s the catch… Ray Durham is worse! Remember that grounder up the middle that Weeks couldn’t field last night? Durham doesn’t even get to that ball.

I’m fine giving Durham the start against tougher righties, and agree it’s probably a good idea to get him in there tonight against Big Z. But Weeks gives the Brewers the best chance at good production at second base. Over the course of his career (not this season, but career), Weeks has been an above average second baseman offensively. I wish people would realize and appreciate the fact that Weeks was a full-time MLB starter at age 22. Chase Freaking Utley didn’t see the bigs until age 24, Dan Uggla until age 26 and Ian Kinsler until 24. Brandon Phillips broke into the big leagues at age 22, put up a .553 OPS and didn’t play in the majors again until he was 25. Weeks is 25 right now.

I know that game was intense, and I know Weeks totally crapped the bed last night, but who doesn’t have a bad game once in a while? If Braun doesn’t blast a homer in St. Louis and save Corey Hart’s ass, people would have actually noticed that Corey Hart had the worst game of his career that day. Of course the team won, and nobody really cared. Funny how that works.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2008

Free Bill Branyan, and other thoughts

Posted on July 28, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Time for a ‘Beat the Cubs’ Cornucopia of Thoughts. Despite the great stretch since the break, many things have bothered me, so this may be a bit negative.

  • Why has Ned let three game-winning hits trick him into thinking Bill Hall is better hitting righties than Russell Branyan? Hall had a nice start to July, and Branyan hasn’t done much at all lately (probably hard when you’re never playing), but Hall has quickly reverted back to being bad against righties… Shocking! I’ve never liked the idea of playing the hot hand, because that generally means a few things: if a player is only playing because he has a ‘hot hand,’ that probably means that he isn’t good enough to be a full-time starter anyway. The hot hand phenomenon leads to the player playing more than he should, and likely wears out his hot streak because he’s playing more in unfavorable match-ups. Ned has managed to doubly mess this up, because he went from a platoon that was producing very well to one that isn’t producing at all: Branyan because he hasn’t received regular playing time for a few weeks, and Hall because he’s playing so much against righties. The numbers on Hall remain astonishingly clear: Hall’s OPS against lefties is 1.057; Hall’s OPS against righties is .560. Bring back the platoon!
  • As far as the other platoon of McClung on the road/Bush at home, I’m ready to scrap it already. What is the benefit of keeping two pitchers on a whacked out routine?
  • Everyone is talking about Ned keeping Suppan in too long yesterday, but that isn’t even the decision that bothered me the most this weekend. Down two runs with two outs in the ninth against Jose Valverde on Friday, Ned kept Jason Kendall in to hit rather than using a pinch hitter. Kendall has been great defensively, but he is not a good hitter. I don’t get Ned’s refusal to pinch hit for his light hitting catcher with the game on the line. He hasn’t pinch hit for Kendall one time this season.
  • It’s surprising that it took this long, but the polish has finally worn off Gabe Kapler. He’s 0 for his last 11 and 2 for his last 17. Gabe Gross is no world beater, but it still bugs me that the Brewers kept Kapler over Gross. Why ship out the superior hitter who is also left-handed on a righty-dominated team?
  • Eric Gagne is looking good, which probably has to do with him being rested, but I don’t like Ned pronouncing him ‘the eighth inning guy.’ The bullpen should be strictly about using the best pitcher in each situation. If three out of the first four batters of the eighth inning are left-handed, Brian Shouse should be used. Additionally, naming Gagne the eighth-inning pitcher could lead to the overuse that derailed him in the first half. Keeping Gagne fresh should be a top priority, especially since it’s beginning to appear that the Brewers won’t be trading for a reliever (which is a mistake, but I’ll leave that for another post if no deal occurs).
  • I doubt there’s been a more hyped series for the Brewers in my lifetime, but unless either team sweeps, there won’t be much ground gained. If the Cubs win three out of four they’ll have a three-game lead; if the Brewers take three of four they’ll have a one-game lead. Nothing too earth-shattering. I’m still most concerned with the Cardinals/Mets/Phillies/Marlins, because those are the teams that can beat the Brewers out for the wildcard.

On to Bill’s Scouting Report of the Week. It goes to Ben Sheets in his start against the Cardinals.

5-14

6-1

Velocity Early

I have to say, these are my favorite type of reports. Most are good, but the ones with points that are impossible to decode without an explanation from Bill are a whole different animal.

5-14. Bill’s Birthday? Ben Sheets’ birthday? A specific rule in the MLB handbook? Turns out it’s Ben’s W-L record in his career against the Cardinals. Gee, Bill… Who cares? Are you trying to say that Ben’s struggled against the Cardinals in his career based on those numbers? Because his career ERA against the Cards is 4.20, which isn’t nearly as bad as “5-14” would indicate.

6-1. Take a guess. Today’s date? The final score of the last game he pitched? Bill’s mustache hairs per square centimeter of upper lip? Nope. If you guessed ‘Ben Sheets’ road record’ you’re the lucky winner.

Velocity Early. It’s important for Ben to have his velocity early. Not a scouting report. Also, this applies to just about any pitcher.

———————-

Finally, a little anti-Cubs mojo for the series.

Brant Brown

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Posted in Bill's Scouting Report of the Week, Cornucopia of thoughts

Virtual Tie! Virtual Tie!

Posted on July 27, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I wanted to get this chant started at the game last night, but I figured it wouldn’t catch on, and I’d end up looking like the guy who backpedaled across the bridge bellowing out an entire Red Hot Chili Peppers song to nobody in particular (actually happened).

I’m setting the over/under for arrests at eight for the Cubs series.  I have to think the Brewers would be pleased with anything less than that amount. The Brewers and Cubs still play each other ten times the rest of the way, so the division will largely be decided in those games.

Making up five games on the Cubs in nine days is crazy, but more importantly, the Brewers have a three game lead in the wildcard, which means their playoff chances are in their hands.

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Posted in Uncategorized

B!B!KTUTH!

Posted on July 24, 2008 by | 6 Comments

Posted by Steve

The Brewers just completed a seven game road sweep and swept a four game series against the Cardinals in St. Louis.

…

…

…

By the way, I’d have been tempted to drill the next fourteen Brewers hitters after Braun’s homer. He walked six steps before starting his jog. And the ball was like two rows up! Huge, huge A-Hole move, and also a huge mistake. A few feet shorter and he’d have been standing on first on a ball off the wall. I really wish he’d knock that crap off. Bill Hall did it this series as well, but nothing close to that bad.

Ah well. Only four more wins in a row for the Webb’s deal!

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Posted in Uncategorized

I like baseball.

Posted on July 24, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I stole this title from a text message my brother sent me after Tuesday night’s comeback win over the Cards.  I think it sums up this week pretty well.  And man alive, what a week it’s been. The Brewers have gained four games on the Cubs since just the All-Star Break. Everything has gone their way recently, and all of a sudden the NL Central is up for grabs. Far cry from a couple months ago.

Baseball Prospectus has the Brewers as the heavy wildcard favorite. Their odds to win the division are at 37.4%, odds to win the wildcard are 39.7% and their overall chance at the playoffs is 77%. To compare, the next closest wildcard contender is, ironically, the Cubs at 28%, which would likely mean the Brewers will have won the division. After the Cubs, the Cardinals are at 15% for the wildcard, the Phillies are at 7% and the Mets are at 5.8%. Overall, the only National League team BP gives a better chance to make the playoffs is the Cubs.

In other words, things are looking up.

Not much else to say, other than they’ve been they best team in the league since the end of the series in Boston. The fact that they are on pace to exceed their win-loss expectations despite losing Yo Gallardo is just crazy. The offense has hit the way we knew it eventually would, but the pitching has been completely unexpected. CC Sabathia is poised to run away with the title of “Most impactful in-season acquisition in MLB history,” but Manny Parra and Dave Bush have really come on lately, and its their unexpected contribution that has really made a difference.

I keep waiting to wake up. The Brewers are 15 games over .500. They’re currently dismantling their biggest competition for a playoff berth. They have a seven game winning streak, and a six game ROAD winning streak. Their payroll is over $90 million. CC Sabathia is on the best stretch of his career… And he’s doing it with the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Cubs are sliding, their fans are getting very nervous and it pretty much feels like the roles are the opposite of the stretch run from last season.  I know there is a ton of baseball left to be played, but I can’t ever remember being this excited about the Brewers.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2008

You got crocodile blood? You’re gonna need it.

Posted on July 22, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

“This… Is about to get interesting.”

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Posted in Uncategorized

Nothing short of backup catchers gets Bill going like a pitcher who can hit

Posted on July 21, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Bill’s Scouting Report of the Week goes to new Brewers ace CC Sabathia. This week’s edition has a twist to it: I was out and couldn’t hear the audio on the tv, so I’m just going off what I saw. I’ll add in what I think Bill may have said.

All Three

Big Yard

Swing It

All Three. I’m going to assume this was about Sabathia having three pitches working, although that’s not a completely safe assumption.  It could have very well been: Whether Sabathia gets a win is based on three key factors: Pitching, defense and offense.  If all three go well, he’ll be in good shape.

All three. Last time out, CC had all his pitches working. When he does that, he’s tough to hit.

Big Yard. Just a great scouting report on the pitcher… The ballpark. In no way is this valuable as a scouting report. Imagine the Giants studying AT&T park in preparation for Friday’s game.

Big yard. This is a big stadium; not many homers are hit here. Sabathia should be able to keep the ball in the park.

Swing It. Ah, one of Bill’s scouting report commandments. If the day’s starting pitcher is an above average hitting pitcher, it must be mentioned in the scouting report.

Swing it. Sabathia has huge pop. He crushed a home run his last time out, and his career average is over .300!

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Posted in Bill's Scouting Report of the Week

Haven’t I written this before? (A.K.A. The Giants are terrible, vol. 2)

Posted on July 20, 2008 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Yeah, I guess I have written this before. Except it’s one year later, and the Giants are somehow even worse.  The Brewers finally got a sweep on the road, are up to a season-high 12 games over .500 and even took one of the Giants best hitters with them to St. Louis.  Let’s discuss.

  • CC was terrific on Friday, and the next two games the offense was the story.  I thought the Brewers did a great job today against Tim Lincecum.  Even though they didn’t cash in on many of their opportunities, they were extremely patient and willing to wait him out when he didn’t appear to be at his best, and that drove up his pitch count and forced a relatively early exit.
  • Speaking of that pitch count, it was painful to watch the Giants leave their 24-year old franchise pitcher out on the mound for 121 pitches.  It may have been one thing if he was going for a complete game or holding a lead, but he threw 121 despite the fact that:
  1. The Giants were 17 games under .500 entering today’s game and are playing for nothing.
  2. Tim Lincecum is 24 years old and a  Hall of Fame talent.
  3. The Giants were losing the game.
  4. It wasn’t like it was the ninth inning.  He struggled to get through six innings, and it was clear he was done in the seventh.
  5. Lincecum spent the All-Star Break in the hospital with the flu!
  • Ray Durham is a nice pick-up for the Brewers.  That .385 on-base percentage is something that is sorely needed in front of the team’s sluggers.  The minor leaguers the Brewers gave up, center fielder Darren Ford and pitcher Steve Hammond, are unlikely to be impact players at the major league level. Finally, the Giants are even paying for just about half of Durham’s remaining salary.
  • I am just a little leery of the trade though, for a couple reasons.  As disappointing as Weeks has been, I don’t want Ray Durham as the starting second baseman.  Durham’s defensive range has deteriorated as he has aged, and metrics indicate Rickie Weeks is the better defensive player.  Secondly, Durham’s line of .293/.385/.414 is much better than what Weeks has done, but it’s not realistic to expect him to stay there.  Durham’s 2008 PECOTA projection was .250/.327/.390.  Meanwhile the projections entering this season for Weeks was .265/.368/.454.  It is nice to have Durham to start against tough right-handers, but he shouldn’t start more than once or twice a week.  Meanwhile, Weeks has really started to come around offensively in the last eight games or so, so hopefully he’ll be able to heat up.
  • Mark Attanasio continues to add to the payroll, as this acquisition will put them over 90 million.  The Brewers will add a reliever, so the payroll will go up even more–it will probably end up at about 95 million.  It’s just astounding.  He has nearly tripled the payroll over the course of his brief ownership.
  • I really, really don’t get the home/away “platoon” of Dave Bush and Seth McClung in the fifth spot in the starting rotation.  I like that Ned is willing to think outside the box a bit, but doing this based on 75 innings from McClung  is pretty nuts, and the fact that Bush only has 45 innings on the road screams SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.  Dave Bush has been  great  much of this season.  His WHIP for the season is at 1.15, an outstanding mark.  In his last four starts he has thrown 28 innings and has an ERA of 1.93.  Why are they keeping him out of the rotation?
  • The next time I’m introduced to someone, and they eventually ask me what I “do,” I’m going to say I co-author a blog with a guy who got a photo with Russell Branyan.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Jack Bauer wears Russell Branyan pajamas, Transactions

It’s like Yoda teaching Luke, only if Yoda was still in his prime and Luke used his lightsaber far more than necessary

Posted on July 16, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

From today’s JS article about the Brewers in the All-Star Game:

One player Braun immediately sought out was St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols, another “hated” divisional foe who turned out to be a willing dispenser of advice on various topics.

“I’m trying to learn as much as I can,” Braun said. “I talked to him about plate discipline, stuff like that. It’s definitely a learning experience. There are so many great players here.”

Here’s hoping that was an in-depth, multifaceted PujolSeminar.

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Posted in Uncategorized

All-Star Cornucopia

Posted on July 14, 2008 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

  • As was not-so-boldly predicted here the other day, Sheets will get the start tomorrow in the All-Star Game. It’s more an issue of availability than anything, but I’m still realizing I’m more pumped about this than I probably should be. A few people are saying they didn’t want him to start, but my thought is he was going to throw an inning or two anyway, so why not have him start the game? Sheets has been my favorite Brewer for years, so I think it’s great that he’s getting some recognition after being underappreciated for so many seasons. Of course this could just serve as a showcase on national tv in his free agent year, but that’s probably for a different post.
  • Check out Bootspur Hurdle’s gritty, gutsy comments on Sheets. “He’s blue collar; he brings his lunch pail to work every day. I thought it would be an opportunity that he’d embrace. He has a lot of energy, a lot of passion. He’s a perfect match for me.” Good grief. How has the expression “brings a lunch pail to work” stood the test of time? Does anyone say ‘lunch pail’ anymore? I can honestly say, to the best of my recollection, the only time I’ve heard the phrase ‘lunch pail’ in my life is when it’s used in the expression, “He brings his lunch pail to work.”
  • Braun is hitting seventh in the NL lineup, which seems about right. The NL lineup is stronger than the AL this season. An infield of Berkman-Utley-Ramirez-Jones with Pujols at DH is just sick, and the AL lineup features over-the-hill, light-hitting Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki. I’m not trying to say what outcome this will have on the game, because I don’t really see any way to possibly handicap it. With the Brewers solidly in the playoff race, I guess I’ll be pulling for the NL if I manage to stomach FOX’s coverage for the duration of the game.
  • Although it’s not All-Star related, I can’t post today without at least mentioning CC’s performance yesterday. That was just awesome, particularly the top of the ninth.
  • Unfortunately, that outing was another long one-122 pitches. Sheets and Sabathia are now number one and two in pitcher abuse points. Dan astutely pointed out me overlooking the fact that many of Sheets’ starts came on an extra day’s rest, so his number one ranking may be a bit overblown, but I still want to see that ranking go down ASAP.
  • Home Run Derby tonight. Prepare for off-the-charts levels of awkwardness and annoyingness courtesy of ESPN, particularly Chris Freakin Berman. A lot of people are poo pooing the derby lineup this season, but I like it. It features the next generation of stars—Utley, Hamilton, Braun, Sizemore, Morneau, etc. Also, Erin Andrews will be reporting on the field. I don’t get into EA as much as some of the fanboys, but let’s just say she brings more to the table than Berman.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts