Monthly Archives: August 2008

Sweep shouldn’t have been expected

Posted on August 12, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I realized with the complaining about Counsell in the lineup so frequently I may seem like I’m trying to find something to complain about during a very good stretch, but that isn’t the case. The Brewers are playing well again—the pitching in particular has been outstanding. Against the lowly Nationals, the Crew’s starting pitchers had a ridronkulous 0.58 ERA in 31 1/3 innings. The most encouraging part of that series, to me, was the outing of Ben Sheets. It was his first great outing since June 23, and it put to bed any suspicions of a tired arm (I’m sure the extra day of rest helped too).

One last thing about the Nationals series. Yost had a comment about it being a no-win series, because even if they swept, big deal. They were “supposed” to sweep. Ned’s right, because a lot of people definitely had that attitude, but it isn’t accurate. Although the Brewers have been involved in three this season, four-game sweeps are rare. Even the best team in baseball will lose to the worst about 35% of the time. In other words, you can’t really “expect” a sweep. Sure, a split would have been disappointing, but a four-game sweep is icing on the cake.

Speaking of sweeps, the Brewers are now 8-2 since The-Series-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. They have gained 1.5 games on the Cubs since that series and three on the Cardinals. A three-game lead in the wildcard isn’t a big deal yet, but it’s nothing to sneeze at either (question: What is something to sneeze at?). If anything, I hope this once and for all stops the “Oh man, this is the type of loss that could derail a team” thoughts that keep popping up. Momentum, by and large, does not exist in baseball. Other examples: The horrific game in Arizona in which the Brewers allowed five runs in the ninth without recording an out was followed by three straight wins. A 19-5 drubbing of the Brewers by the Cubs was followed up with arguably their best win of the year—a 4-3 comeback win in extra innings over the Cubbies. Conversely, it doesn’t work the other way either. A big win won’t cause a winning streak. After that 4-3 win over the Cubs, the Brewers lost six games in a row. Simply put: A team isn’t more or less likely to win today because of what happened yesterday.

Anywho, an interesting road trip. Not great teams, but west coast trips are generally tough. 4-2 should probably be the goal, but you’d have to be happy with 3-3. Keep crankin’ up the temp!

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2008

IT’S BILL’S SCOUTING REPORT OF THE WEEK OMG!!!

Posted on August 11, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Time for Bill’s Scouting Report of the Week. This week it goes to Nats lefty John Lannan, seemingly the only decent pitcher on the team. Ahem…

Good Change

Pitches In!

Road ERA

Good Change. Actually a worthwhile point, which can only tell you the rest of this report must be a doozy.

Pitches In! Kind of another valid point, but the exclamation point kills me. What was the thought process behind adding the exclamation point? This, like most things, reminds me of Seinfeld—the episode where Elaine was adding exclamation points all over the magazine. “It was damp and chilly afternoon, so I decided to put on my sweatshirt!” Maybe it was just extra crucial. I’m imagining Skaalen in the locker room. “Ok guys… This Lannan kid. He’s a tough sonuvagun. Good lefty. Nice change-up. Most importantly, and I can’t stress this enough: HE PITCHES IN! KEEP ON YOUR GUARD! FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, HE PITCHES IN!!!11@!”

Road ERA. I admit I didn’t catch what Lannan’s exact Road ERA was, but after yesterday it was 2.4. So that’s basically implying that Lannan is good on the road. In other words, Bill’s scouting report on the opposing pitcher is: He’s good. So why is he good Bill? Should that, in fact, be the real scouting report? I mean, in addition to HE PITCHES IN!!! of course.  We heard you the first time.

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Posted in Bill's Scouting Report of the Week

Make it stop!

Posted on August 11, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Looking at today’s starting lineup, it’s difficult to tell which team is actually terrible. Gabe Kapler hitting third and Craig Counsell hitting sixth is an abomination. Apparently Branyan reaching base twice in his start the other day and then drawing a pinch hit walk yesterday wasn’t enough to overcome Counsell’s 0-13 streak.

If Counsell continues to get starts at third base over Branyan, the Brewers’ chances of reaching the playoffs decrease. Simple as that. This needs to stop yesterday.

One more thing.  Even if starting Counsell at third wasn’t a terrible decision, why hit him sixth?  What is with Ned’s refusal to adjust the lineup when starters get off days?  Do you mean to tell me that hitting Corey Hart third, Mike Cameron fifth and Kapler sixth for one day is going to screw up the hitters “rhythm” or something? Blech.

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Posted in Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??

I don’t have photoshop, so take what you can get.

Posted on August 10, 2008 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Despite winning the game, Gabe Kapler didn’t have a good day–he was 0-6 before the homer. Mike Rivera was the player of the game, so I decided to combine the Beefcake into a Riverapler Photo.

In case you can’t tell, which is probably the case, that’s kind of supposed to be Gabe Kapler with the head of Mike Rivera.

Awesome game.

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Posted in Beefcake Kapler

Find a way to get in!

Posted on August 10, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Nights like these are what makes me think if the Brewers can just find a way to get into the playoffs, they really have a chance to do something.  I know it’s just the Washington Nationals, but Sabathia and Sheets were both on top of their game.  The only NL team that can match that 1-2 punch is Arizona, and the Diamondbacks’ offense isn’t as good as the Brewers’.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2008

A man of my word

Posted on August 8, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

So I did what I said and conducted a little spring cleaning in August.  I updated the “About” section and the lineup, and I added an archives widget and a search feature.  I also added Fan Graphs to my links, so check them out if you aren’t familiar.

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Posted in Uncategorized

Off day musings

Posted on August 6, 2008 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Haven’t posted in the last few days. I don’t really have anything in particular I want to talk about, but I figured I’d get something up. Couple good games to end the Reds series leaves the Crew with yet another winning road trip. Hot diggity dog. Few quick things.

  • Jim Powell said on the radio today that the collective bargaining agreement prevents a team from playing on more than 20 days in a row. Wednesday was the Crew’s 20th straight day with a game, which means it would be illegal for the Brewers to play tomorrow. I don’t know why, but that struck my as cool/amusing.
  • The Craig Counsell consecutive start streak is at five and counting. No word yet as to which Yost family member Russell Branyan abducted or what Branyan’s demands are; I’m just assuming the authorities are keeping it under wraps for precautionary purposes.
  • Over lunch I saw on some ESPN2 show people discussing how the Prince Fielder-Manny Parra incident “could help the Brewers turn things around.” Yep, and if the Brewers fall apart and miss the playoffs, I expect to read how the incident “divided the clubhouse and became a fatal distraction.”
  • Suppan looked pretty good today, and it’s hopefully a good sign. Randomly, his career ERA in July is 5.34 (easily his worst month), while August is 4.67. He’s had long career, so those are pretty significant samples. I won’t even try to speculate why he’s been that bad in August, but if the numbers hold true his worst games should be behind him. Even more encouraging his is September/October ERA of 4.05.
  • Dave Bush pitched well on the road and won. I know; I imagine I’m just as shocked as you. I was sure the starting rotation home-road platoon based on a handful of innings from this season was going to work out perfectly, but I guess I was horribly wrong.
  • Sweet game for Rickie today. May have been his best all-around game of the season. Keep him in there for a week, Ned, and see what happens. My guess: He’s finally realizing it’s big-boy time.
  • A very winnable week is ahead for the Crew. Four at home against the pathetic Nationals, and then three on the road against the almost-as-bad Padres. Winning less than four games would cause Brewer fan mutiny. 5-2 is a lofty but attainable goal, and that’s what I’ll be hoping for.
  • Finally, I’m laying it on the line. I’ve been meaning to revamp (or at least update) the site for, like, three months now and keep forgetting/putting it off. The “About Me” page is an abomination and hasn’t been up to date since about two months after this blog’s inception. The roster down the right side needs some work too. You’d think I’d be excited enough by the fact that Tony Gwynn Jr. is no longer on the team to change it, but I guess not. Also, apparently the Brewers added some big name starting pitcher or something? I’ll look into it and edit accordingly. Anyway, I figure by posting that here for **the world to see, it will somehow force me to actually follow through with this.

** In this particular context, “World”=”People who have visited this blog more than twice.”

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts

Sabathia vs. Sheets? More similar than you think.

Posted on August 4, 2008 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I constantly find myself defending two of my favorite Brewers—Rickie Weeks and Ben Sheets. Though they are admittedly two of my favorites, I like to think my use of numbers to back up my stance prevents me from blindly arguing something.

I’m going to do the same here, and after going on a IluvRickie binge, I’m switching back to Sheets. Sheets’s recent struggles combined with CC Sabathia’s incredible run in a Brewer uniform have clouded many people’s opinions of each player. It’s the classic ‘what have you done for me lately’ syndrome. People are putting far too much stock into the last month of performances, and as a result hold CC in too high a regard and Sheets too low. Sheets is clearly better than he’s pitched over the last month (and I know people realize this), but nobody is as good as Sabathia has been in his first six Brewer starts. CC is on an incredible run right now, but it’s at a level so high that it’s impossible to maintain. I mean, the dude was charged with two earned runs in 8 1/3 innings on Saturday, and his ERA rose.

I’ve heard a lot of statements similar to the following:

Sheets is putting too much pressure on himself since the team got CC; he’s trying to prove he’s still “the man.” Nonsense. His last start before the team acquired Sabathia wasn’t sharp either, for starters. Secondly, it’s quite possible that Sheets is fatigued. Once Ben throws ten more innings, he’ll have more innings under his belt in one season than any since his absurd 2004 campaign. He’s still at the top of the Pitcher Abuse list, and he threw on four days’ rest after the All-Star Break. Luckily, the team has a well-timed day off on Thursday that will allow him an extra day’s rest before his next start. Hopefully that will have a positive effect.  Sheets’s rough patch may simply be random; he had a similar stretch from late April to mid-May.

Sheets doesn’t win enough.

I heard supposed intelligent Chicago baseball analyst Steve Stone on the radio this morning, discussing Ben’s struggles. I’ll paraphrase. “Ben Sheets has always been counted on as a big-game pitcher, but he’s never really performed like one. He’s being paid $12 million a year, and he’s never one more than 12 games. I’ll repeat that: he’s never won more than 12 games.” Thanks for that brilliant insight, Einstein. This is another reason Sheets is underappreciated by many. People still see wins as a meaningful stat, when it is, in fact, utterly useless. Sheets has had terrible run support over most of his career, which is the biggest reason he doesn’t have a lot of wins.

Sheets is good, but he’s no CC.

Au contraire! Now, CC will almost certainly land a more lucrative contract than Sheets, but career numbers won’t be the reason. It will be for two other reasons: Sabathia is a couple years younger than Sheets, and he has been more durable. I imagine many would be surprised by their career stat-lines. I compared them over a few categories: ERA+ (This stat factors in ballpark effects and attempts to compare pitchers over the same field. League average ERA+ is 100.), strikeout/walk ratio, strikeouts/9 innings, walks/9 innings and WHIP.

Sabathia Career: 117 ERA+, 2.57 K/BB, 7.47 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 1.255 WHIP

Sheets Career: 115 ERA+, 3.89 K/BB, 7.66 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.207 WHIP

As you can see, their overall career numbers are extremely similar, and I’d probably argue that Sheets’s numbers are slightly better. Of course, that edge is more than made up for by their innings total—1376 for Sheets, 1576.7 for Sabathia. Nonetheless, the point is the same: Sheets has been no less effective than Sabathia over the course of their careers. People are letting the last five weeks cloud their judgment.

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Posted in Uncategorized

8/3 Sheets vs. Campillo

Posted on August 3, 2008 by | 9 Comments

Posted by Steve

I haven’t posted in a few days, mainly because there wasn’t really much to say. Not really any decisions to scrutinize or anything like that in the Cubs series. They just got destroyed. I almost blame myself, since before the series I said the only way one team would make a big gain on the other is if one sweeps. What a disaster.

The last two games have lessened the blow a bit. Two wins over the lowly Braves have allowed the Crew to gain a game back on the Cubs and Cardinals.

Going for the sweep today. A couple of minor demons to exorcise today. One is Jorge Campillo, who has hog-tied the Brewers with his sweet screwball in two starts this season. It would be nice to knock him around. The second is Ben Sheets. He has not been sharp at all lately, and I keep waiting for a great start from Sheets. Ironically, his last one came in Atlanta. Sheets’ biggest issue has been his inability to throw efficient innings. He’s throwing the same amount of pitches as earlier in the season, but is only getting through five or six innings for the most part.

  • Bit of a throwaway lineup again on getaway day. Counsell, Durham and Kapler all playing. I don’t mind Hardy sitting. He’s in another cold streak, having reached base once in his last 21 plate appearances. Quite the streaky hitter, that J.J. Hardy.
  • Brewers go pretty quietly in the first. Stranded Counsell on second. The highlight of the inning was Braun swinging at the first pitch he saw, a low screwball, and weakly grounding out to short. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
  • Right on cue, Gregor Freakin’ Blanco works like an eight pitch walk to start the game. So much for that efficiency, at least early on.
  • After a sac bunt from Yunel Escobar (thanks for the free out Bobby!), Kotsay works another long at-bat and lines an RBI double to left center. It’s like I’m reading a mystery novel: The Hardy Boys and the Case of the Disappearing Out Pitch.
  • After another out, Sheets hangs another curveball that the ever-dangerous Omar Infante pulled down the line for an RBI double. 2-0 Braves.
  • Hooray for a 36-pitch inning! Sheets looks terrible. This is very concerning to me.
  • Corey Hart with a lead-off single, and steals second and third around a Russell Branyan flyout. Runner on third, one out for Gabe Kapler.
  • Kapler with an awful at bat. He missed a two-strike curveball by about a foot. I really can see Campillo pwning the Brewers once again. The free-swinging team simply doesn’t match up well with good junkballers.
  • It’s up to Kendall. I have to say, I’m missing his beard. It made him seem more grizzled, gritty, scrappy and battle-y.
  • His approach didn’t change much. A nice, scrappy roll-out to third. Kendall with a cool .493 OPS in the last 28 days, yet Rivera can’t get a start to save his life.
  • Bill talking about Sheets: “Alls he has to do is be Ben Sheets.” He sure talks good, duh-knee pardner?
  • Now two walks to Gregor Blanco. Awful.
  • Got out of the inning, but he’s at 56 pitches. This looks like another six-inning outing at best.
  • A 1-2-3 inning for Campillo. If he beats them again, Jorge Campillo is officially a Brewer killer.
  • Lead-off walk to Mark Kotsay, Ben’s third of the game.
  • Got out of it quickly with a flyout and a double play ball. Hopefully he can settle down. 2-0 Braves after three innings.
  • Just flipped over to the Cubs game in time to see Soriano TERRIBLY misplay a ball and give Pittsburgh a run. It was hilarious, yet it doesn’t even give back one-one hundredth of the damage he did in the Brewers series.
  • FSN reminds us that Campillo has allowed eight baserunners against the Brewers in 12 innings. God.
  • Prince remains the only Brewers’ threat as of late, ripping a one-out double to right. Let’s see if they actually can drive him in… Novel idea.
  • Nah, probably not. Hart somehow dribbles out to the mound on a 2-0 pitch. Up to Branyan.
  • Whiff! CAMPILLOPWN.
  • Now a leadoff double for Kelly Johnson. This is one of those games that feels like your team has no chance, despite the score being close.
  • Wow, Johnson gunned down stealing third with nobody out. Very dumb play; I’ll take it though.
  • The next two were quickly retired, and suddenly Sheets has been able to settle down a bit. Let’s see if Kapler, Kendall and Sheets can… Oh, who am I kidding. Hopefully they’ll get to him the third time through the order.
  • Kapler just struck out on a ball at his head. It was literally even with his face. What a joke. How Doug Melvin can announce they’re “going for it,” then trot out Gabe Kapler as his fourth outfielder is pretty pathetic. They need a lefty-hitting outfielder badly. Kapler’s first month is being exposed as smoke and mirrors, and he needs to be replaced.
  • Five shutout for Campillo. I hate facing this guy.
  • Branyan’s error allows Jorge Campillo to reach base to start the inning. If Atlanta gets a three run lead it will seem like eight runs.
  • Blanco doubles to right, but only after failing to get a sac bunt down. Two biggest reasons the Brewers are losing: Jorge Campillo and Gregor Blanco.
  • Escobar RBI groundout. 3-0…
  • WOW!!! Play of the year from Prince Fielder! Leaps and snags a Mark Kotsay liner, and doubles Blanco off of second. Inning over. Hopefully the top of the order can get something going. Campillo’s third time through the lineup now… It’s now or never.
  • Counsell with the best at bat of the day. Worked the count full and singled to right. Unfortunately that was with one out, and Braun flew out to right. Two outs and one on for Fielder. Asking for his sixth homer in five games is probably too much, right?
  • Yep. Unbelievable. Six more shutout innings, and he’s only at 83 pitches. He should have at least two more in him.
  • Meanwhile, Ben Sheets has almost exclusively thrown from the stretch today. Casey Kotchman singled to give the Braves their fifth leadoff baserunner in six innings. This one not going well.
  • Sheets works out of it and gets through six innings. This is pretty much what I was referring to. Three runs over six innings isn’t bad, but it’s not Sheets even close to his best. He threw 97 pitches through six, and he routinely does that over seven or eight innings.
  • I can’t wait to see what Kapler does this time. How can he top the first two. Strike out on a ball that hits the backstop? Jump and strike out in mid air? Stay tuned; he’s up third this inning.
  • Hart grounds out, and Branyan singles nicely to center. Here’s ol’ Gabe.
  • Hey, whatever works. Kapler with a nice bunt, and Campillo throws it away. Second and third with one out, but unfortunately Jason Kendall coming up.
  • Seemingly the only thing Jason Kendall gets praised for offensively is his ability not to strike out. Naturally, he struck out stranding the runners.
  • Can really see these two strikeouts coming a mile away. Kendall one, Weeks about to be two I’m guessing. Prove me wrong Rick.
  • Struck out looking on a pitch that looked inside. Awesome. Kendall really screwed the pooch that inning.
  • Speaking of polish wearing off, McClung has rediscovered his ability to walk the ballpark. Two walks with one out, and then Yunel Escobar singles to drive in the fourth run. Guys on first and third, and suddenly this has a chance to turn into a blowout.
  • Brewers bailed out once again by a double play ball. 4-0 Braves. Campillo’s out of the game, so I guess they still have a shot.
  • Hellboy Jeff Bennett coming in, and he walked Ray Durham on four pitches. Let’s get something going.
  • Bad break. Counsell lines to right, and Francoeuer traps it. Durham had to hold and was easily thrown out at second.
  • Braun looks at strike three on the outside corner and yet another promising inning is about to collapse.
  • Will Ohman comes in and retires Prince Fielder on a pop-out on the first pitch. What a pleasant game this has been.
  • Three walks and a HBP in 1+ innings for Seth McClung. And the Brewers also didn’t acquire a reliever at the deadline. I’m pretty baffled by their contentment with the bullpen.
  • McClung knocked from the game. 5-0 Atlanta, and they’re still threatening. Oh well, at least they won another road series.
  • Mike Gonzalez is doing some goofy ass sway on the mound for like four seconds before delivering a pitch. Very strange, and probably annoying as a hitter.
  • Kendall lobs out to center field to end the game.  Thankfully, that’s the last time the Brewers will face Campillo this year.

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Posted in Game Blog