Monthly Archives: October 2008

Posted by Steve

Based on the press conference, I will be in agreement with Ken Macha more than I will be with most MLB managers.

“I believe you get 27 outs and you have to protect those outs.  When you’re in the second inning and you’re starting to give away outs by bunting and hit and runs, you’re actually doing a favor to the other team.”

If I had been eating at the time, I probably would have choked on my food.  He also mentioned on-base percentage multiple times.  Hallelujah!

I know it’s just a press conference, but he also came off as very intelligent.  I’m pretty excited about this hire as I hear more about him.

Posted by Steve

There was potentially encouraging news over the weekend when Doug Melvin was given a three-year extension and Dale Sveum was eliminated from consideration for the open manager position.  I only say potentially encouraging, because if Melvin hires someone like Bob Brenly, Buck Showalter or Willie Randolph it probably won’t even be an improvement over Sveum.  I am continuing to hold out hope for either Davey Johnson or maybe Bobby Valentine, but I’m not expecting that.  My guess is either Brenly or Ken Macha.  Meh.

Anyway, with the extension of Doug Melvin I thought I’d take a closer look at one of the criticisms of Melvin that is being mentioned a bit more this year, which is his alleged tendency to assemble powerful but undisciplined offenses.  It’s no secret the 2008 Brewers fit this description, but are the Brewers offenses of the last couple seasons really a byproduct of Melvin as a GM?  To get a better idea, here are OBPs and slugging percentages of each team he has presided over as GM.

1995 Texas Rangers

OBP: .336 (10^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .410 (10^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 691 (11^th of 14 teams)

This was a poor offensive team that was lucky to be four games over .500 (they were outscored by 29 runs).  It was the first team under Melvin, so I won’t hold this one against him too much—many of the players were likely leftovers from Tom Grieve’s team.

1996 Texas Rangers

OBP: .359 (5^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .469 (4^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 928 (4^th of 14 teams)

A good offensive team led by Juan Gonzalez, Rusty Greer and Dean Palmer led Texas to their first ever playoff appearance.  .359 is a very solid mark; nothing to criticize here.

1997 Texas Rangers

OBP: .333 (9^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .438 (4^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 807 (7^th of 14 teams)

This looks pretty similar to Melvin’s Brewers teams of the last couple seasons.  Poor OBP, good power, average run output.

1998 Texas Rangers

OBP: .356 (2^nd of 14 teams)

SLG: .462 (3^rd of 14 teams)

Runs: 940 (2^nd of 14 teams)

This was a great offense all-around.

1999 Texas Rangers

OBP: .362 (3^rd of 14 teams)

SLG: .479 (1^st of 14 teams)

Runs: 945 (2^nd of 14 teams)

The addition of DH Rafael Palmeiro made an already very good offense even better.  This was really the heyday of Melvin’s tenure with the Rangers as far as offense is concerned.

2000 Texas Rangers

OBP: .352 (6^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .446 (7^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 848 (9^th of 14 teams)

Juan Gonzalez had left the team, and Melvin was unable to come close to replacing his production.  Pudge Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro had huge seasons, but that was only enough to make this a fairly average offensive team.  Note this is his last team before owner Tom Hicks stepped in and signed Alex Rodriguez to a record-setting deal and putting a limit on Melvin’s flexibility to address the team elsewhere.

2001 Texas Rangers

OBP: .344 (4^th out of 14 teams)

SLG: .471 (1^st out of 14 teams)

Runs: 890 (3^rd out of 14 teams)

This team resembled the 2008 Rangers: great offense and horrid, horrid pitching. They scored 890 runs and allowed 968. Alex Rodriguez had a monster year, but his huge contract may have played a part in the poor pitching (in that they couldn’t afford any).

Melvin was fired after this season, and it was perhaps unjustified. He then joined the Brewers in 2002 and assembled his first Brewers team in 2003.

2003 Brewers

OBP: .329 (11^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .419 (8^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 714 (11^th out of 16 teams)

The first couple seasons with the Brewers were rebuilding years, and everyone knew it. Best stat from 2003: Brooks Kieschnick had a .614 slugging percentage in 70 ABs.

2004 Brewers

OBP: .321 (12^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .387 (16^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 634 (15^th out of 16 teams)

This was the year after Melvin traded Richie Sexson, so they predictably made a huge drop in slugging. This was still acceptable, however ugly it was, as the team was rebuilding and waiting for their wave of young players to get through the minors (Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy). Luckily, this was the final terrible Brewers team under Melvin to date. This was also the year my love for Ben Sheets grew to a seriously unhealthy level.

2005 Brewers

OBP: .331 (9^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .423 (4^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 726 (6^th out of 16 teams)

To me, this was the first Brewers team that was fairly fun to watch since I had been a serious fan of the team. It is also the first team I would say is fair game to critique as far as what Melvin was putting together.

2006 Brewers

OBP: .327 (13^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .420 (12^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 730 (14^th out of 16 teams)

A bit of a strange result here, as the offense was virtually the same as the previous season—the rest of the league just made a big step forward. Still, not what you’re looking for in a team OPS.

2007 Brewers

OBP: .329 (11^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .456 (2^nd out of 16 teams)

Runs: 801 (5^th out of 16 teams)

This reflects what some have complained about—high slugging but a lack of OBP.

2008 Brewers

OBP: .325 (10^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .431 5^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 750 (7^th out of 16 teams)

It’s no secret the Brewers made the playoffs this year because of their pitching, not their offense. They were worse offensively in 2008 than 2007 by a decent margin.

Here’s where I have trouble trying to draw a conclusion from this. I wasn’t sure what I expected to find when I looked at these numbers. If I would have seen relatively low OBPs in Texas I’d have felt safe saying that Melvin either largely ignores on-base percentage or prefers slugging percentage, but that wasn’t really reflected overall by his Ranger teams. With the Brewers, though, the highest OBP in any season since Melvin has been here is .331. I’m willing to give him a pass on his first two years here, as those were clearly rebuilding teams—even 2005’s team overachieved a bit to reach .500. But the Brewers have not improved in one of the most crucial areas of the game since Melvin has been here.

There could be a number of reasons for this. Higher payroll in Texas. Inherited players in Texas were better than inherited players in Milwaukee. Strategy of scouting directors in Texas vs. in Milwaukee.

That’s why I’m having difficulty taking something away from this, other than the fact that Melvin must address this issue in 2009 if the team wants to contend again—they aren’t getting that type of pitching again.

I’m wondering what others think of this. For those who believe it’s a trend with Melvin, how do you explain the very good offensive seasons in Texas? And for those who don’t believe it’s a trend, how do you explain the lack of discipline by the Brewers since he’s been here?

My feeling is that the good offenses in Texas were more a result of the high payroll (Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro) and players he inherited (Juan Gonzalez, Rusty Greer) than a conscious effort to add OBP, but I could definitely swayed the other way by a strong argument.

Posted by Steve

National baseball media personalities never cease to amaze me with the dumb things they say. The TBS Crew was out in full force last night. Chip Caray was insufferable. I kept thinking, “Boy he is really getting excited at this Red Sox comeback,” which was totally understandable. The thing that bothered me, though, was how disappointed he sounded when the Rays did something well. Monotone calls of Jason Bartlett’s lead-off single in the ninth, his stolen base etc. were very noticeable. But of course when Masterson induced a double play ball I think he suffered a sports hernia.

Move ahead to the bottom of the ninth. J.P. Howell retired the first two Red Sox in order, and when the second out was recorded Caray sounded like someone beat him up and stole his lunch money. “…And there’s two away.” Dan said he couldn’t even imagine being a Rays fan and having to listen to that. If I was, I’d still be too angry to be posting about it.

That perceived bias sure was annoying, but what happened after two outs in the ninth was worse. After Longoria’s error that allowed Youkilis to reach second base, Joe Maddon made the obvious move with the left-handed Howell on the mound. He walked right-handed slugger Jason Bay to pitch to left-handed J.D. Drew. Caray called the move “unconventional” and was acting like Joe Maddon was using curious strategy. I’d love to know what the hell was unconventional about that move. It’s the bottom of the ninth. The game is tied, so any run loses the game for you. You have first base open, and a very good right-handed hitter at the plate. Your pitcher is left-handed, and the guy on deck is a left-handed hitter. Any manager in baseball would have walked Bay in this scenario. In fact, I’d call it the most conventional move that was made in that game. Caray wouldn’t let it go either. After Drew’s game-winning hit, he referred to the “unconventional” decision a second time. ????

Oh, but the senselessness did not stop there. Let’s go to the TBS post-game show. All of a sudden we are faced with the question of “Can the Rays overcome this?” Not if you ask Dennis Eckersly (again, paraphrasing). “Man, the only thing Tampa Bay has going for them is they’re going back home!” What? Sure, the loss was brutal, but they lead the series 3-2 and they’re going home. I’d like to repeat that: THEY LEAD THE SERIES! They also have James Shields pitching, who’s been very good lately. The Red Sox are the ones who need to overcome something (the 3-2 deficit on the road).

They later brought in SI’s Tom Verducci, who was saying how much Joe Maddon would be questioned after blowing a 7-0 lead. One of Verducci’s criticisms was that Maddon “Brough J.P. Howell in for the ninth inning, and he’s not a ninth inning guy.” My reaction, in numbered list form:

1. What is a “ninth inning guy”? I think this goes along with “big-game pitcher” and “closer’s mentality.” It’s all vague nonsense that isn’t even defined, and therefore can’t really be wrong.

2. Why is J.P. Howell not a ninth inning guy? By all accounts, Howell has been anywhere from good to outstanding all season. 2.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 197 ERA+, 92 strikeouts and 32 walks in 89 1/3 innings. Not that this should matter at all because of the glaring small sample size, but he has even done well so far this post-season.

3. Using Howell in the ninth is such an odd thing to criticize. Balfour and Wheeler had already pitched (and each given up two-run homers). Who else was Maddon supposed to throw there?

4. Finally and most importantly, Howell should have been out of the inning! He retired Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz before Kevin Youkilis reached second on an error. J.P. Howell, how dare you get Dustin Pedroia on a weak ground out, strike out David Ortiz and then induce a weak grounder from Kevin Youkilis?! A real ninth inning guy would have had Youk hit the ball slightly harder so it was an easier play!

Posted by Steve

So today was Blog Action Day.  The concept is pretty cool.  Every blogger devotes one day to one theme, and the issue gets the proper attention, if just for one day.  Last year blog posts spiked on Blog Action Day, so the message is getting out.  This year the theme this year is poverty.  There are a couple obstacles for me concerning this topic.  One:  This is a blog about baseball, a sport whose players are grossly overpaid.  I’m not apologizing for loving baseball enough to write about it, but I’d be lying if I said I’m never just a little embarrassed to be so passionate about something that is trivial in the grand scheme.  Two:  I am in no way qualified to discuss this issue at length.

My attempt to tie this issue to baseball is a stretch, but it’s the only angle I could think to take–baseball, as much as anything else, has a way of getting people through tough times.  It obviously means a lot to many people.  Take this past season, for example.  The economy in America has people cutting back on spending, yet baseball attendance numbers are at all-time highs.  The Brewers set a single-season record for attendance in 2008.  Obviously it does something for people, because many would rather cut back on gas and other forms of entertainment before they stop going to baseball games.  It brings a sense of unity and allows people to escape for a few hours from whatever hardships they may be going through.

This was a stretch, because cutting back spending in tough economic times is something millions of people experience; it does not mean they are living in poverty.  Unfortunately, baseball is not able to do a thing for world poverty, and obviously, that’s where the issue is at its worst.  Like I said, I’m not going to pretend like I know anything about it, so instead I’ll shoot my friend Andy a link.  Andy is applying for Teach For America and had some great stuff today on his blog, including links to some great charities.  I came across one myself called Soccer Dreams Without Borders, which provides soccer accessories to impoverished African children.

**Sorry that is all I had.  I promise to delve much further into the Blog Action Day Topic in 2009.

**Assertion based on next year’s topic being sacrifice bunting.

Posted by Steve

A few thoughts:

You can see why this never was aired on television.  Those undertones are really overtones.

Braun is a slightly better actor than Brett Favre.

Marisa Miler isn’t much better.

Is it so corny that it’s funny, or is it just bad?  I think it’s kind of funny.