Slave-driving statistics

Posted by Steve

There are some Brewer-related things to get to, but in this post I want to addresss the NL MVP Award, and specifically, the ballot of Tom Haudricourt. In a blog post he made yesterday, he revealed his ballot. He voted for Ryan Howard with his top vote. That’s completely wrong, but at least 11 other voters did that. What was truly absurd was where he ranked Albert Pujols, the obvious choice for this award: Seventh. His order:

1. Ryan Howard

2. CC Sabathia

3. Manny Ramirez

4. Carlos Delgado

5. Aramis Ramirez, Chi

6. Prince Fielder, Mil

7. Albert Pujols, Stl

8. Ryan Ludwick, Stl

9. Ryan Braun, Mil

10. David Wright, NY

Now there have been some terrible winners of post-season awards in recent years, but that has to be the worst ballot I have heard of.

He spends uses several paragraphs to justify his vote, but here’s a snippet.

I had an MVP ballot and voted for Howard first because he almost single-handedly carried the Phillies to the playoffs by batting .352 with 11 homers and 32 RBI in September. I like to weight my voting to teams in the playoff hunt because I think that puts more pressure on players and separates the men from the boys. There’s little pressure on players having big years if their teams aren’t playing for anything at the end.

With the Cardinals finishing fourth, I voted Pujols seventh on my ballot. I don’t consider MVP to be “the most outstanding player” award and therefore don’t just go by who had the best stats. I like to credit players for lifting their teams to the post-season or at least keeping them in the race until the very end.

Where do I begin? Ryan Howard had a great month. He also had a pretty mediocre first half and wasn’t the MVP of his own team, much less the league. Albert Pujols, meanwhile, had a dominating season for the entire year and had vastly superior numbers to Howard. Howard shouldn’t have been in the top ten in votes.

It truly wasn’t close. Here are some NL rankings for hitters. In WPA Pujols was second; Howard was 24^th. In on-base percentage Pujols was second; Howard was 50^th (!). In slugging percentage, Pujols was first; Howard was sixth. Pujols was first in runs created; Howard was 13^th. Pujols was first in VORP; Howard was 29^th. I could keep going with this, but I’m sure you get the idea by now.

After receiving quite a bit of backlash (which was deserved) regarding his ballot, TH posted a response in which he added this gem.

I choose to not be a slave merely to statistics. If you want to pick the MVP solely on statistics every year, we can hire a statistical outlet to name the winner and just do away with balloting. We can call it “Most Outstanding Statstical [sic] Player.” And, certainly, Pujols had great statistics, as he always does.

Not sure about you, but I think “I choose not to be a slave merely to statistics” rivals “It’s big-boy time.” He won’t be “enslaved” by “statistics” (oooh, such a bad connotation) even when every statistic imaginable proves Pujols was incredibly more valuable than Howard.

And then to cap it off:

As for the debate of what makes a player “most valuable,” that one will rage on forever. And it certainly looks like I did my part to add to that debate. Enjoy yourselves.

I love when TH gets overly defensive like this. It’s high comedy. “We can hire a statistical outlet to name the winner and just do away with balloting.” First of all, you don’t need to hire anyone… Professional writers should be able to understand the value and meaning of baseball statistics. Secondly, I love the idea. And then the “enjoy yourselves” thrown on at the end, which really reads like a giant EFF YOU in my eyes.

Haudricourt does have a point. The MVP is a completely subjective award. People are not voting on the same thing. Some are voting on best statistics, some are voting on best statistics on a good team, some are giving more weight to different months of the season, etc. The MVP will have no meaning until there is an actual definition of what “Most Valuable Player” means.

Valuable Player? Nah. Hast to be Most Valuable Player on a winning team. And not just a winning team, but on a playoff-contending team. And it helps if you do your best in September, when it counts.

You can see where problems occur.

It’s not just having Howard first. Like I said, many made that mistake. But why have Pujols seventh because he didn’t make the playoffs yet have Delgado fourth? He also doesn’t have Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman and Chase Utley (who OMG made the playoffs too) on his ballot. It’s truly remarkable.