Posted by Steve
Today should jumpstart the free agent period a bit, because it is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their impending free agents. The Brewers have four players set for free agency. CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets are Type A free agents, and Eric Gagne and Brian Shouse are Type B free agents. I imagine many will disagree with me, but I would offer arbitration to all four players.
Sabathia is the obvious one and isn’t really even worth discussing. He won’t accept arbitration; the Brewers are just setting themselves up for draft pick compensation if/when he leaves.
Sheets is also a slam dunk, unless the team knows something we don’t about his injury. Everything we’ve heard so far has his elbow healing without surgery and him ready to go in 2009. If that is the case, the Brewers need to offer arbitration. There’s not much of a chance he’ll accept because he’s likely to get at least a two-year deal, but on the slim chance teams are all scared off by his injury history, Sheets at one year/13-ish million would be great value. This is assuming the Brewers don’t pursue a multi-year deal with Sheets themselves, obviously, which they could still do after offering arbitration.
Shouse likely makes sense as well. He’s looking for a two-year deal, but at age 40 the Brewers are more interested in one year. Shouse wouldn’t break the bank in arbitration, and would likely be well-worth the three mil or so he’s likely to get for one year. If he does find a two-year offer somewhere, the Brewers seem likely to let him walk. The under-the-radar signing of LOOGY R.J. Swindle recently seems to be insurance in case Shouse leaves (By the way, look at Swindle’s numbers! I love guys who don’t walk hitters, so I have high hopes that he’ll be another one of Doug Melvin’s nuggets).
On to Eric Gagne, who is definitely the toughest decision of the four. On the surface, it seems like an obvious decision to forgo arbitration with him. He made ten million last year and although I liked the gamble on a one-year deal, he didn’t earn the contract. His second half numbers, however, are overlooked by many: 1.0 WHIP, 17 Ks, 6 BBs, .688 OPS against. In other words, he was quite good in the second half.
The Brewers will be in need of relievers, and I’m very leery of signing multiple relievers to multi-year deals. I would argue it’s extremely likely that Gagne is better than last season and would be an asset on a one-year deal for less money than 2008. The Brewers could offer five million in arbitration, fully expecting Scott Boras to counter with about eight million. Players rarely take such a pay cut via arbitration, but since Gagne was so overpaid last season, I’m confident the arbiter would choose the five million dollar option.
One thing to keep in mind is it wouldn’t even be a sure thing that Gagne would accept arbitration. Boras’ general rule is to get his players to free agency where he can work in the open market. I doubt he’d get an offer better than five million, though, so I still think Gagne would take the Brewers’ offer—just something to think about.
The reason I’d give Gagne arbitration is not because I think he’s better than other free agent relievers; certainly I’d take Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes over him if we’re just comparing talent and production. It’s because the one-year option gives the Brewers a much better value than a multi-year deal for other relievers would (Fuentes and Rodriguez are likely to break the bank with long-term deals).
My guess as to what will actually happen is that Sabathia, Sheets and Shouse will be offered arbitration and Gagne won’t, but it’s just a hunch. I think the wise move would be offering to all four and letting things play out, and I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s the course the Brewers took either.
You got a question, you ask the 8-Ball!