Monthly Archives: January 2009

Posted by Steve

Apparently the Brewers have not only avoided arbitration with Prince Fielder, but signed him to a two-year $18 million deal. Personally, I don’t really understand why.

This is not an extension. Fielder is not eligible for free agency for three more seasons, so he’ll actually have one year of arbitration eligibility left after this two-year deal.

It’s not that I think $18 mil for two years is way too much for Fielder, it’s that I’d just much rather have a one year deal for $7 or $7.5 mil. The Brewers submitted a price of $6 mil while Fielder submitted a price of $8 mil. Initial reports were that they would work out a deal before reaching an arbitration hearing, which is why I figured assuming 7 or 7.5 was safe.

Generally, I’m of the opinion that buying out arbitration years is not worth it unless you are buying out years of free agency (i.e. Ryan Braun’s extension last season). This obviously doesn’t do that, so I don’t really see the point. Sure, I understand this protects the Brewers if Fielder has a repeat of 2007, but it’s also a risk if Fielder regresses even more from 2008. That isn’t to say that I expect Fielder to regress, but you have to admit it’s not out of the realm of possibility that his weight could get even more out of control and his defense could get even worse. If Fielder would have made 7 mil this season, that means the Brewers feel he’ll be worth $11 mil or more next season. If he did regress though, he would not have received 11 mil in arbitration next year. In that scenario the Brewers come out as losers.

On a semi-related note, this probably means I need to lay my Adam Dunn aspirations to rest. Signing Fielder to a two-year deal definitely indicates the Brewers are not considering trading him. I think this is a mistake because this is a rare opportunity to get an even better slugger (Dunn) at an economy-discounted rate. Signing Dunn for first base and trading Fielder would have been a great way to add pitching on the cheap without losing any production at first base.

Sigh. I definitely had higher hopes for this off-season than were apparently warranted.

Posted by Steve

If we’re learning anything from the odd 2009 off-season, it’s that this is not the optimal year to be a free agent. The truly elite players—CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and (apparently?) A.J. Burnett—are immune, but most others have been hurt by a couple factors. The most obvious one is the economy; its impact is glaring. Another one, which is having an impact on players who should otherwise be very appealing, is the scarlet letter.  In this case that’s the letter A, as in a free agent’s Type A status and the draft pick forfeiture that is required to sign him.

Type A

Manny Ramirez

Ben Sheets

Juan Cruz

Orlando Hudson

Jason Varitek

Oliver Perez

Orlando Cabrera

Those are the unsigned Type A free agents who were offered arbitration by their 2008 teams. They all declined arbitration, which means a team would need to forfeit its 2009 first round pick to sign one of them. Two amendments to this rule: 1) If a team was in the bottom half record-wise, its first-rounder is protected and would only need to forfeit a seond-rounder. 2) If a team has already signed a higher-ranking free agent, they give up the pick from the next round. You’re likely well-versed in rule #2 by now, as it was artfully illustrated by the screwjob the Brewers received by getting just a second-round pick from the Yankees for CC Sabathia. An even more nauseating thought: if the Yankees decide they just haven’t spent enough this off-season and sign Ben Sheets, the Brewers will be compensated with a fourth round pick because Sheets is ranked behind Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett. I’m trying not to be pessimistic, so I won’t bring that up again. Back to the point…

Just looking at that list, you can see it’s full of valuable players—obviously some more than others. Yet, for most of those players there has hardly been a substantiated rumor of a team being interested.

Manny Ramirez is the obvious exception here. He remains unsigned because Scott Boras is holding out for a big offer, not because a team isn’t willing to give up a first round pick for him. Oliver Perez is only 27 and will likely get a three-year deal. The rest, though, are very interesting cases.

We know the story with Sheets. Durability concerns are preventing him from getting a lucrative, long-term deal. Despite this, you’d expect many teams to be interested in offering a one or two-year deal. This has apparently not happened yet, and I’m sure his Type A status is a factor. I can make the argument that Sheets is easily worth the risk and have several times, but the fact remains giving Sheets several million dollars is still a risk. Add in the fact that teams would need to give up a high draft pick to sign Sheets as well, and it’s somewhat understandable that Sheets is still unsigned. As an aside, this should give the Brewers an advantage if they want to sign Sheets because they would not have to give up their own first-rounder to sign him; they’d only be forfeiting another team’s pick that they don’t even have yet.

Juan Cruz is a particularly interesting case. In fact, I think this may be the most intriguing one on the list. Cruz made an interesting decision to decline arbitration from the Diamondbacks. He would have received a nice one-year salary. Instead, he’s finding himself in a pretty bad situation. Teams were willing to forfeit a pick for established closers like Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, but Cruz is not an established closer; he’s a good-not-great relief pitcher who has not closed before. In a vacuum he’s likely to get something like a three-year deal for about 12-15 mil, but I don’t see many teams willing to give up a high draft pick to get a solid but unspectacular reliever. Doug Melvin himself has said the Brewers would have been interested in Cruz but was not willing to give up the first-round pick he would require. For this reason, I’m incredibly curious to see what happens with Cruz. He could remain unsigned for another month, if not more.

Orlando Hudson is another intriguing case. While statistics show he was really an average second baseman last season, he’s carried a reputation as one of the better second basemen in baseball for the last few years. Ordinarily there would be plenty of demand for Hudson, but not this year. It’s likely the economy is a bigger factor with him than the Type A status, but it’s not helping. Nonetheless, it’s surprising that he’s unsigned. A team like the Cardinals would have a lot to gain with Hudson replacing the Adam Kennedy/Aaron Miles/Brendan Ryan three-headed monster at second base, yet there hasn’t even been much of a buzz around Hudson.

It sounds crazy, but the case can be made that every player on that list aside from ManRam and Oliver Perez erred by declining arbitration. Sheets would have likely received around a $13 million deal for 2009 from the Brewers, and now it seems unlikely he’ll make that much. It’s designed to protect the team losing the player, but if you’re a Type A free agent, it can only hurt you. When players who won’t cost anything in draft picks (Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Brandon Lyon) remain unsigned, you’re that much more likely to get overlooked if you cost a team a draft pick as well.

Posted by Steve

Finally some good news this off-season. The Brewers have signed Trevor Hoffman. Details haven’t been released yet, but multiple sources are confirming. The Crew now has their closer, and a good one at that. Aside from being the all-time saves leader, he has a career 89% save conversion rate (best ever), a career 1.05 WHIP, 3.85 K/BB, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.61 K/9. Considering that’s over an entire career, those are stellar numbers. He is 41, but aside from a spike in his home run rate, most of his numbers stayed pretty consistent with his career figures. Age shouldn’t affect him as much as other pitchers considering he’s a changeup specialist, so I don’t think it’s very risky.

Whether it’s for one guaranteed year or two, this is a very good signing. The Brewers can now turn their attention to starting pitching.

Posted by Steve

The Brewers have turned their focus to one of my favorite free agents available—closer Trevor Hoffman. TH reports that Melvin is trying to move quickly, and that he may have an idea on whether they can sign Hoffman as early as tonight.

Hoffman makes perfect sense for the Brewers. He’s still an elite closer, but he won’t be paid as much as some because he’s 41. Yet even at 41 there’s still every reason to expect him to be elite because he’s a changeup specialist; it’s not like his age has taken mph off a blazing fastball. Hoffman was one of a startling number of Type A free agents to not be offered arbitration (one of the other ones, Pat Burrell, was signed yesterday by the Rays in an incredibly cheap deal). As a result, Hoffman would not cost the Brewers a draft pick to sign.

In my eyes, Hoffman would solidify the Brewers’ bullpen. Not that it would necessarily be a big strength, but I would no longer see it as a weakness. Signing Hoffman would allow the Brewers to fully turn their attention to a starting pitcher, which is a much more glaring need.

I’d be willing to go as high as one year for $8 million or two years for $14 million to sign Hoffman. Let’s hope the Brewers are able to bring him in.

Posted by Steve

I haven’t posted in awhile, but that’s not because I haven’t had the time.  Mainly it’s because there hasn’t been much of anything to talk about.  Save for the Yankees, teams really haven’t been very active so far this off-season.  The Brewers haven’t done much of anything either, except for scare me with with reports of a Mike Cameron-Melky Cabrera trade.

It’s also not because I’m growing bored with baseball.  My 20-minute argument at a New Year’s Eve Party with a stranger who claimed Mike Cameron sucks should erase any doubt of that.  Yeah, sometimes I need to hone it in a bit.

Anyway.  Normally we see more moves by now, but the economy seems to have slowed down the spending (again, save for the Yankees).  The best hitter and pitcher are off the market, but many impact players are still looking for a team.  Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Trevor Hoffman and some Sheets guy who’s supposedly pretty good are all still available.  I’ve made my feelings for Adam Dunn known around these parts, so I won’t get into why I want Dunn again, but I’ll just say that his signing would make me quite pleased.

Of course I’m not expecting the Brewers to sign any of these players except maybe for Ben Sheets.  It just doesn’t seem like there are many suitors out there for him, and I’m starting to wonder if his agent erred by declining arbitration.  Teams with reported interest such as the Rangers and Astros now seem unable to have the money to sign him–from what I’ve read, the Astros are already shopping Carlos Lee.  There’s only four years left at $18.5 mil per season, so I’m sure teams will be lining up to take that cute little contract.

Anyway, what I’m getting at is it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ben Sheets and the Brewers, both seemingly inclined to move on without each other a couple months ago, work something out after each side has realized that there don’t appear to be better options available.

Whether it’s Ben Sheets or someone else, January is the time when I expect the Brewers to make their changes.  The holidays are over, and when some free agents realize people aren’t going to be meeting their demands, prices will come down.  We’ve already seen this in a few instances, such as the two top closers on the market–Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes ending up with less money and years than what they had hoped for.  I thought the Mets got a pretty fair deal for K-Rod, and I really liked the value for the Angels with Fuentes.  I expect to see more bargains like that throughout MLB this month.