Monthly Archives: March 2009

The State of the Job

Posted by Steve

With the baseball season just a week away (!), training for the job is starting to wind down, and we’re being tested to make sure we’re ready for the real thing.  One day this past week, we charted a game from 2008 and our results were compared with the actual chart done by last year’s interns.  Also, a couple times I had a full time employee sit next to me and watch me chart for 30-60 minutes at a time, which was a bit nerve-racking but seemed to go well enough.  I think we’re all pretty much ready for the season to start so we can see where we stand; plus, it is getting a bit old watching 2008 games all day.

I would like to make an amendment to a post from a couple weeks ago.  I was discussing which pitchers are difficult to chart, and I listed Dave Bush as the best example from the Brewers.  After charting a Manny Parra game, I can say with certainty that he is the toughest Brewer to chart–in fact, he’s one of the toughest pitchers to chart in the entire league.  It is pretty rare for a pitcher to have both a split-fingered fastball and a change-up, but Parra throws both, and it is extremely difficult to tell them apart.  He also throws a slider and a curveball, and when he throws the splitter towards the right-handed batters box it somehow looks a lot like a slider.  Full time employees actually had a meeting to discuss Parra’s pitches and how he should be charted, because it’s truly that difficult to tell.  I’d like to get as many Brewer games as possible at work, but I’d be fine without charting a Manny Parra game this season.

Since  we’ve been doing this and only this for a few weeks now, we’ve been finding other forms of entertainment within a game.  The other day we took a “Is this fan a man or a woman?” tally.  We gather around to watch every announcing train wreck or awkward moment, funny error or any other randomly funny event during a game.

One great example can be found here.  There is an awesome scrum of kids fighting for Josh Hamilton’s home run ball.  Unfortunately, this clip doesn’t do the entire event justice.  Keep an eye out for a kid in a pink shirt come running in from the right.  They change cameras in the highlight right as he takes flight, but I can assure you that kid went careening onto the pile with reckless abandon and a flying elbow.  I’d estimate we watched this about ten times. “Alright, here it comes, here it comes…  There he is… OOHHH!”  It’s really a shame they cut off that clip, because it’s awesome.

By now, I have a pretty good idea of the baseball views of most of the interns.  I’ve already mentioned the big stat-head of the group.  He has gotten into several arguments with guys who are less statistically inclined.  I got dragged into one of these arguments on Friday because it involved the Brewers.  He asked me why Baseball America ranked Alcides Escobar as the Brewers’ number one prospect over Mat Gamel.  He doesn’t think Escobar will hit in the pros (which I’m a bit concerned about as well, but not to the extent he is).  Meanwhile, a few other interns like Escobar a lot and were citing all the good shortstops who didn’t hit before the age of 22.

I have only been directly involved in one such discussion.  I’ll give you one guess which player it was about–and it wasn’t Ben Sheets.  Yeah, Rickie Weeks.  I was talking to the guy next to me about second basemen and I said, “I remember a few years ago when the big discussion was whether Weeks or Howie Kendrick would be the better second baseman.  They’ve both been a little disappointing, but I’d still take Weeks.”  A guy from across the room yelled, “Did I just hear you say you’d take Weeks over Kendrick?  No way!”  It was, as the kids say, on.

Weeks’ career line is .245/.352/.406, while Kendrick’s is .306/.330/.430.  Similar OPSs, but Weeks is OBP-heavy while Kendrick’s is slugging-heavy.  His main argument was that Weeks’ batting average is so low, but I of course pointed out that on-base percentage is more important.  I didn’t mention this at the time, but Weeks has a batting average of on balls in play of .302, while Kendrick’s BABIP is .360.  With only 997 MLB plate appearances, Kendrick’s .360 is almost certainly unsustainable.  

Alright, I’m done with that and truly sorry.  I promise no Weeks posts for at least a few weeks.

Many of the interns last worked for minor league teams, and are therefore much more knowledgeable on prospects than I am.  I’ve already learned quite a bit in this area, so I’m looking forward to learning more about that throughout the season.

It’s the thought that counts?

Posted by Steve

Spring training is starting to wind down, but there are still a few things up in the air for the Brewers.

The story of the past week that has really caught my eye is this one about Ken Macha possibly using Jason Kendall at leadoff at times this season.  I have mixed feelings on this.  While I like Macha’s reasoning in theory, I don’t think Kendall fits what he’s looking for.

“(Kendall) did a good job,” Macha said. “What he does is almost every at-bat is a seven-pitch at-bat. He’ll take a walk.”

Macha is referring to his days in Oakland when Kendall led off on that team.  The seven-pitch at-bat comment is way off, but it really seems to just be hyperbole, so whatever.  But his point is he likes Kendall because he works the count and takes walks.  Kendall used to do that quite a bit, but as he’s gotten older it hasn’t happened as often.  It’s also odd that Macha would say that about Kendall, considering Rickie Weeks is better at both seeing pitches and taking walks than Kendall.

Pitches per plate appearance–career numbers

Weeks: 4.09

Kendall: 3.92

Weeks has also seen more pitches per plate appearance than Kendall each of the last two seasons, and it’s by a wider margin than their career numbers.

Weeks also gets the nod over Kendall in walks.  Weeks’ career walk rate is 11.7%.  It was 12.2% in 2008 and 16% in 2007.  Kendall’s career walk rate is 8.6%.  It was 8.8% in 2008 and 6.2% in 2007.

For that reason, and also for the seemingly obvious fact that he is a bad hitter, I don’t like the idea of Kendall leading off.  Basically, having Kendall lead off all season would give the Brewers’ worst hitting starting player (by far) the most at-bats on the team.  That’s never a good idea.

I’m not too worried for these reasons.  One, and this is pretty subjective, but I don’t get the impression Macha is considering using Kendall at leadoff full time, or even a majority of the time.  It seems to me this would be something he’d try at times depending on certain matchups.

Two, I’ve often heard the argument that hitting Rickie Weeks at the top of the order has made him more passive.  All through college and in the minors, Weeks was generally hitting third in the order and was a main power threat–quite a different mindset from leading off.  Weeks was never groomed as a leadoff hitter; he was just moved there because the Brewers didn’t have a better option.  As much as I love his walk rate, it seems that he sometimes actually takes too many pitches, particularly hittable ones.  If this thinking is at all involved with moving Weeks out of the leadoff spot, I’m not 100% against it.

Finally, I’m not too worried because of this quote from Macha.

“The way the rest of our lineup sets up, we’ve got guys with so much power,” Macha said. “People say a typical leadoff hitter can steal a base. I don’t want to be giving up outs on the bases with guys up there who can hit homers. Do you want to get thrown out on the bases when Prince (Fielder) is hitting? I don’t think so.

“If you eat up 25 pitches on the pitcher (during a game), you know what 75 (pitches) means (for a pitcher). A 100-point jump in batting average (for the other team).”

Wow!  Let me count the things I love about this quote.

1. Downplaying the need for speed at the leadoff spot

2. Not giving up outs on the bases in front of the power guys (even though Weeks steals bases at a very good 85% clip)

3. Stressing working the count

4. Pointing out the drop in effectiveness of pitchers after pitch 75

In all, I’d say there’s as much good in that article as there is bad.  Just don’t hit your worst hitter at leadoff plz, kthxbai.

The Return of DreamRickie

Posted by Steve

It’s been a while since I last had a Brewer-related dream, but I’m still a bit embarrassed by the fact that I’ve now had three of them since this blog began.  Unsurprisingly, this one also centers around Rickie Weeks.  It’s pretty clear why I had this dream; right before bed last night I was drafting a post involving the leadoff spot that I haven’t finished (should be up tomorrow).  Here’s a summary.

I am at Miller Park, even though it isn’t quite Miller Park as it actually exists.  You’re familiar with this phenomenon in dreams in which things like that just make sense, I presume.  I am on a platform over the left field bleachers watching the game, and Rickie Weeks hits a bomb that reaches the platform (that would be like 600 feet, which is impossible unless you’re playing Mike Piazza’s Strike Zone).

I scramble to grab the ball, and when I get there I see it had been split in half somehow.  I took it anyway.  At this point, I time-travel to about a half-hour after the game ended.  I want to get the half-baseball autographed by Weeks, so I make my way to the clubhouse exit, which I of course am able to reach without any problem.  While I am waiting, an employee reads off game notes.  The last thing she said was, “And finally, Rickie Weeks has retired from baseball.”

My reaction was similar to the time I freaked out on Doug Melvin and Ned Yost in DreamRickie’s first appearance.  I pretty much said all the same things.  “He’s still young!  He still has potential!  And he’s losing SO MUCH MONEY BY RETIRING NOW! WHY RICKIE!?”

And here’s where it really gets weird.

Jim Powell appears, except it’s not Jim Powell; it’s a guy with Jim Powell’s voice.  But in my dream it’s completely normal that Jim Powell has a different body.  Anyway, he starts talking to me about Weeks, and how he’s not surprised at all that Weeks is retiring.  In fact, he’s glad Weeks is retiring!  “He just had a bad attitude, and he really just wanted to play for San Diego!  In fact, he’d always watch Padre games in the clubhouse instead of preparing for the game!”

By now this may be sounding more like A.J. Pierzynski, which is probably where that idea came from in my head.  Not much happened after that, except I somehow knew I was one of the only people to hear about the retirement, and I was debating whether to come and “announce” it here on this very blog.  I woke up this morning and almost made a “Weeks Retires!” post before my head cleared.  Too bad, because I’m sure that would have been entertaining.

Corey Hart needs to rebound, cont.

Posted by Steve

I was reading over some of the Journal Sentinel’s Brewers by Position previews again, and a few things stood out to me on the Corey Hart preview.

The first is that Witrado is absolutely right–Hart’s at-bat in the last game of the season against the Cubs was the worst at-bat of the season by a Brewer.  It was probably the worst since Kevin Mench and Ned Yost combined to send me into a hulk-like rage a couple years ago.

The second is Hart’s quote about his September collapse.

“I wasn’t really praying to get on or praying to get a hit. At that point, I was just praying that it would be in the strike zone and I could put it in play. That’s how bad it was.”

Yikes!  At least he’s being honest, I guess.  I mean, that’s certainly what it looked like when I watched him at the plate.

The last thing I noticed was his attitude towards his second half in general.

“I hate when people say I had a bad second half,” Hart said. “I had one of the best Augusts on the team, but of course September is what people remember.”

Uh… Corey?  You did have a bad second half.  Here are your numbers: .239 average, .263 on-base percentage (!) and a .396 slugging percentage, for a brutal .659 OPS.  Sure, the putrid September brought that down some, but it was still poor.  Hart’s OBPs by month: .301 in July, .310 in August (Hart’s self-proclaimed “one of the best on the team) and .192 in September/October.  Sure, the .192 is extremely bad, but .301 and .310 is still well below average.

Hart’s struggles stem from his impatience.  Only five qualified players in the National League had fewer walks than Hart.  That does a couple things.  One, it makes his slumps worse.  Most every player will have at least one or two slumps in a season, but if he can draw walks it at least allows him to still occasionally reach base.  Hart really didn’t reach base at all when he was slumping.  Two, it makes his slumps even worse and more difficult to overcome.  If Hart’s swinging at anything, he’s not going to see a strike.  Obviously, that makes it harder to get hits.  I’m sure you remember all the sliders off the plate he saw down the stretch, and that was because he was willing to swing at them.

I’ve touched on this already, but Hart needs to have a much better year in 2009 if he wants to stay a Brewer in 2010.  In that regard, I think there’s probably more pressure on Hart than anyone else on the team.  You could argue Weeks, but I think he’s below Hart because there’s no viable replacement looming for 2010.  For Hart, the Brewers have Mat Gamel, Cole Gillespie and Lorenzo Cain looming as potential replacements should he struggle again.  By 2010, each of those three are likely to put up better than the .300 OBP Hart had last year, and Hart will be much more expensive than any of them.

Obviously, I’d love to see Hart rebound, and I think he can.  If you look at his career stats, 2008 really seems like it could be a fluke.  Hart’s never been overly patient, but he’s never been close to the hacker he was in 2008.  His walk rate in 2008 was well below his career average; he drew nine more walks in 2007 in 91 fewer plate appearances.

I like everything else about Hart.  He’s not bad at defensively, he has great speed and he’s a very good baserunner.  After 2007, in which he put up an .892 OPS, it looked like the Brewers should be building around him.  That can still be the case, but he’ll have to show them this season.

Week One

Posted by Steve

Welp, my first week on the job is almost in the books.  I was going to wait until tomorrow to make this post, but to be honest, the brutal Marquette loss has dissuaded me from wanting to watch more college basketball right away.

I have officially been taught everything I’m going to need to know for the job.  The rest of the time before the season starts will just be practicing on game DVDs from last season.

Charting Games

When charting a game, I will be responsible for recording pitch type, pitch location, pitch velocity, hit type and hit location.  Whether this task will be easy or difficult largely depends on each game’s starting pitchers.  They have a database with a scouting report on every single MLB pitcher, including their pitch repertoire.

There are  definitely “easy” and “hard” pitchers to chart.  Guys who have only two or three pitches or guys who throw very hard are easy, while guys who throw several different pitches or throw unusually soft can be difficult.

One of the easiest is former :( Brewer Ben Sheets, who mainly just throws a hard low-to-mid 90s fastball with a distinct power curveball (also mixes in an occasional changeup that is faster than the curve).  It actually says in Sheets’ scouting report, “Easy to chart.”  Guys like A.J. Burnett and Brad Penny are also like this.  Most power relievers are easy to chart as well, as they generally throw only a fastball and a breaking pitch.

Examples of difficult pitchers to chart: Dice-K, John Smoltz, or for a Brewers example, Dave Bush.  I charted a Dave Bush game yesterday and that was pretty tough.  Bush throws a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup.

Other guys are difficult because they throw soft.  When it’s difficult to differentiate a fastball from a changeup, you don’t even have one obvious pitch that is different from all others.  Examples: Jamie Moyer, Josh Fogg, Woody Williams and Tom Glavine.

Scoring Games

When scoring a game, I will be responsible for recording hit type, hit location, baserunner activity, defensive misplays and good fielding plays.

Here’s how hit type works.  Did you know there are 12 different types of fly balls?  Yep!  Four categories of fly balls: line drive, fly, fliner line drive, fliner fly.  Within each category, a hit is either soft, medium or hard.  This is where a lot of personal opinion comes in, because many types look very similar.  A soft fliner line drive, for example, looks a lot like a soft liner.  The difference is the amount of air underneath the ball.  A soft fly (which is a pop-up) that doesn’t stay in the air quite so long could actually be a medium fliner fly.  I think you probably get the idea.  Anyway, we watched several examples of each type of line drive, yet it’s still easy to see how two people can see two different hit types on the same play. We also do this for ground balls and choppers, but categorizing them as either soft, medium or hard isn’t too difficult.

In a vacuum, scoring games is probably easier than charting.  There is one not-so-tiny catch, however.  For the first time ever, BIS will be scoring live games.  So when a crazy play or a play with several errors or misplays occurs, we have to score it very quickly so as to not fall behind in the game.  This is the one aspect of the job that has me a bit nervous, because this has been pretty challenging so far.

Here’s an example which occured during a game I scored earlier in the week.  I invite you to follow the link below, click the tab for “wrap” and then click the video that says, “Hart hammers a two-run double in the fourth” at the bottom of the page.

Hart double

Now that may not seem like a ton going on error-wise, but there certainly is plenty going on defensive misplay-wise.  Let’s sort through the carnage.

  • First, I set the hit type and location.  The ball had quite a bit of air under it, so I’d classify it as a deep fly.  I set the location to the right-center fence, and because the ball hit the wall I must also label it a “wall ball.”
  • Right away we have a defensive misplay on Nyjer Morgan.  If Morgan had cut off his route short of the warning track and played the ball off the wall, Prince Fielder would have had to stop at third base and Hart would have stopped at second..  That means I label it DM #38: Failing to anticipate the wall, and the consequence is the loss of a base.
  • Jason Michaels immediately follows up Morgan’s DM with one of his own by bobbling the ball when trying to pick it up.  This is DM #33: Mishandling ball after safe hit.  The consequence is the same as Morgan’s: it allows Hart to try for third and Fielder to try to score.
  • Freddy Sanchez then makes this a Full-blown DM Trifecta Disaster (unofficial term) by airmailing the throw home.  If you look closely, a good, accurate throw may have nailed Fielder at home.  That means it’s a DM #41, Bad throw to plate.  Consequence: the loss of an opportunity to make an out.

Maybe now you better understand what I’m talking about.  Keep in mind, I don’t yet have most of the DM numbers memorized, so I have to flip through the packet to find the best fit for each misplay, then I need to enter it into the computer.  And I have to do this without falling too far behind in the live game.

I don’t mean to complain; I was just trying to illustrate what I expect to be the most challenging part of the job.  Overall, I am pleased with where I am after four days.  I have been taught everything I’ll need to know, yet I don’t feel as if I’m in over my head.

Changing gears a bit, it’s also pretty awesome to be around other baseball nuts all day.  I casually mentioned someone’s PECOTA projection today, which led to a fairly heated discussion on the effectiveness of Baseball Prospectus’ projection system.  One guy was claiming PECOTA is generally too timid with their projections, and cited the example of Evan Longoria last year (they short-changed Longoria by about 70 SLG points).  Another guy whipped his manual out of his backpack (do you think he just carries it with him wherever he goes?) and starts listing off accurate projections from last year.  The critic didn’t back down, so guy number two says, with a raised voice, “I’d love for you to show me a better projection system!  I’d love it!”

I vividly remember thinking, ‘OMG there’s going to be a full-blown argument at work about PECOTA.  I love life!’ but unfortunately that’s as far as it went.  Too bad.  Maybe I’ll try to bait those two with another PECOTA comment next week.  Check back for updates.

Finally, I’ve already become known as the “Wisconsin Guy,” which is just fine by me.  I’ve worn a Brewers hat and a Marquette shirt so far this week, so I  haven’t really hidden it.  Plus today I was asked about “wholesome Wisconsin girls,” which led to an entertaining conversation.

If this VVP shot had a title, it would be Stoicism.

If this VVP shot had a title, it would be "Stoicism."

Sha-waaah?

Posted by Steve

One day after I mentioned that many people actually wanted to trade J.J. Hardy to make room for Escobar, the JS puts up this ridonkulous poll.  Trading Hardy would be one thing, because at least you’d get something back in return.  But somehow 18% of voters actually want to bench Hardy for Escobar?  That makes my head hurt.

2009 PECOTA Projections – Offense

Posted by Steve

I’m a little later getting around to this post this year, but here it is anyway.  Time to look and see what PECOTA thinks of the Brewers this season.  Before we get to projections, I want to highlight something BP is concerned with: most of the Brewers’ young hitters regressed from 2007 to 2008, and some did quite a bit.  I definitely mentioned last year that the only Brewer hitter to improve was J.J. Hardy.  Here’s a look at their equivalent averages (an offensive stat) and wins above replacement player (a stat which encompasses offense and defense)

2007

Ryan Braun: 1.8 WARP, .327 EqA

Prince Fielder: 5.6 WARP, .329 EqA

J.J. Hardy: 2.9 WARP, .269 EqA

Corey Hart: 4.4 WARP, .301 EqA

Rickie Weeks: 2.1 WARP, .293 EqA

2008

Ryan Braun: 4.1 WARP, .299 EqA

Prince Fielder: 3.1 WARP, .301 EqA

J.J. Hardy: 6.8 WARP, .284 EqA

Corey Hart: 2.0 WARP, .266 EqA

Rickie Weeks: 2.8 WARP, .270 EqA

This tells us two things about this core group collectively.  They got worse offensively but got better defensively.

The most comical one is Ryan Braun.  His offense took a significant dip in 2008, but his WARP rose from a lowly 1.8 to 4.1.  This is a result of removing him from third base, where his defense actually took away almost all of his offensive value (and if you remember his 2007 season, that was a ton of offensive value).

Rickie Weeks is a similar case.  His offense also took a dip in ’08, but his WARP improved overall thanks to his improved defense.  BP had him as a very bad defensive player in 2007, yet had him as a little above average last year.  That’s a huge improvement over the course of one season.  Now if he can only put together 2007′s offense with 2008′s defense, he’ll start to be the player I’ve been saying for years he would be.

Hart and Fielder’s defense stayed them same from 2007 to 2008.  Hart stayed right about average for right field, while Fielder was quite bad both seasons.  Of course, each player’s offense dipped in ’08, which is why their WARP did as well.  Hart’s 2.0 WARP is actually not even good enough to be a starting player.  With his ever-raising price tag, this is a make or break year for him if he wants to stay a Brewer.

That leaves us with Hardy, who had a very good season.  BP had him as a gold glove caliber shortstop in ’08 (compared to a bit below average in 2007), and he also improved his offense quite a bit.  He was the Brewers most valuable position player last season, and the only one who came relatively close to him was Mike Cameron.

BP seems more troubled by the offensive downturn in 2008 than I was.  They actually raise the question of whether the Brewers’ window of opportunity is closing.  It’s not because they don’t think those players can improve, but it’s mainly because their salaries will be increasing sharply.  I am of the opinion that there are good odds of Braun, Hart, Weeks and Fielder all having better offensive numbers than they did last season.  As you’ll see, PECOTA seems to agree with that opinion.

2009 Projections, Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage

Ryan Braun: .298/.360/.576

Last year: .285/.335/.553

I was very excited to see this projection.  I knew Braun showed much more patience at the plate in the second half, and they seem to think that will carry over.  Another nice thing pointed out by BP: “Braun could easily be worth triple his total contract over the life of his deal.”

Mike Cameron: .254/.345/.472

Last year: .243/.331/.477

For all those Brewer fans who complain about Cameron striking out so much, BP makes a good point: “He more than compensates for his strikeout rates by rarely grounding into double plays (just four times last year).”

Alcides Escobar: .264/.302/.351

I included Escobar because it’s important for people to realize that he’s just not ready for the majors yet.  Plenty of people were ready to make space for him in Milwaukee this year, which just doesn’t make sense.  The Brewers have a top five shortstop already, so there’s no reason to rush him.  I’d give him at least the full season in AAA, and possibly some or even all of 2010 as well.  Like most Brewer hitters, Escobar needs to work on improving his plate discipline.

Prince Fielder: .286/.380/.527

Last year: .276/.372/.507

While it isn’t close to approaching his monster 2007 season, this would still be a decent improvement for Fielder.  Personally, I am holding out hope that he does even better than this projection.

Bill Hall: .253/.332/.459

Last year: .225/.293/.396

The only reason Hall didn’t have negative value last year was his defense–various metrics had him above average defensively at third base.  If Hall can meet this projection, which would basically make him an average hitter, he’d likely be worth his elevated salary in 2009.

J.J. Hardy: .284/.344/.459

Last year: .283/.343/.478

All you need to know: “Trading Hardy simply to accommodate Alcides Escobar won’t constitute a step in the right direction.”

Corey Hart: .289/.343/.494

Last year: .268/.300/.459

This is an interesting projection, as it seems to give Hart a free pass for his terrible second half of 2008.  This would constitute a pretty nice rebound.

Jason Kendall: .251/.320/.323

Last year: .246/.327/.324

Pretty much the same year is expected for Kendall.  The good news is Macha has already said that he will give Kendall many more days off than Yost gave him.

Rickie Weeks: .269/.373/.442

Last year: .234/.342/.398

Look, someone else who likes Rickie Weeks!  If he can keep his defense at or above last year’s level and finally put up a full season like this, he’ll be a valuable assett over the course of a season for the first time.  Of course I’d like the slugging to be even higher, but ya gotsta walk before ya run.

—————–

Maybe now you can see why I’m still quite hopeful for this year’s team.  Losing Sabathia and Sheets is killer, and the Brewers can’t replace their entire impact with other pitchers.  Fortunately, they don’t have too–they can close that gap quite a bit by just scoring more runs.  PECOTA has six starters improving from last year, one staying the same (Kendall), and one declining slightly (Hardy).  I expect the team on-base percentage to improve substantially from last season without sacrificing the power of last year’s team.

Fun with Comparables

Ryan Braun compares to Dusty Baker.  I admittedly knew nothing about Baker’s playing career, but he had three or four pretty nice seasons.  Braun also compares to Vernon Wells and Andre Dawson.  Tangent: I always hear whining that Dawson isn’t in the Hall of Fame.  Why is that, exactly?  His career line is .279 .323 .482.  For a guy who spent most of his career as a corner outfielder, that isn’t that impressive.

Joe Dillon, though not with the Brewers any longer, probably has the coolest-named comparables.  Two of them are Jim Dyck and Razor Shines.

One of Prince Fielder’s comes close though: Boog Powell.

Tony Gwyn compares to Jason Tyner.  That’s the dude who went over 1,000 major league at-bats before hitting his first home run.

Each of the Brewers top two catching prospects, Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy, compare to Brook Fordyce.  Salome also compares to Pudge Rodriguez.  Too bad this is only based on offense (at least I’m pretty sure that’s the case).

Rickie Weeks is compared to Bobby Crosby.  How great is that?  Crosby is another guy who fell far short of lofty expectations.  I specifically remember Peter Gammons predicting he’d win the MVP like five years ago.  Weeks’ career numbers are actually much better than Crosby’s already, though.

————-

To quote Bubb Rubb, that’s it and that’s all.  Stay tuned for PECOTA’s projections on Brewer pitchers.  I should have that up within a few days.

Live and in living color from PA

Posted by Steve

I’m just giving an update on my new endeavor.  I am typing this from my new apartment in Pennsylvania.  I’ve been here since Friday.

My first day of work was pushed back a week to next Monday, but I went and checked out the office today with my roommate.  We were given a tour and a rundown of what we’ll be doing and where we’ll be working.

Pretty much my entire job will revolve around watching baseball.  I’m still having a hard time getting my mind around that.  I’ll be charting pitches and scoring games.  Scoring games will be much different from the traditional scoring, though.

A big part of it will be recording defensive plays.  I will have to judge whether a play is a “defensive misplay” or a “good fielding play.”  Here is how they describe these terms.

A defensive misplay is any play which is not an error (or a passed ball), on which the fielder surrenders a base advance or the opportunity to make an out when a better play or a different play would have or might have gotten the out or prevented the advancement.

The universal standard governing a defensive misplay is a “reasonable opportunity to make a play.“  No player should be charged with a defensive  misplay when he has no reasonable opportunity to make a play.

A good fielding play is a play that is made when it is not clear whether the play can be made.  A good fielding play is NOT necessarily a play on which the player looks good making the play–diving or spinning.  It is a play that is made when, had the play not been made, no one would have faulted the fielder for not making it.

The basic underlying principle of a good fielding play is that it must happen in an unclear situation.  A good fielding play is extremely hard to define because it has, in a sense, exactly the same consequence as an “ordinary” fielding play.  For example, if a shortstop fields a routine ground ball and throws the runner out, the play is scored 6-3.  But if the shortstop fields a ball deep in the hole and guns down a fast runner, the scoring is still 6-3.  The difference is not the actual outcome of the play, but the realization that a possibility (in this case, the runner being safe at first) did not manifest itself.

Yikes!  Piece of cake, right?  You should be able to see why simply calling a play an “error” is no longer sufficient if you are trying to get useful information.  Fielding percentage is just about useless when determining a player’s defensive effectiveness.  BIS records this information for every game.  It is possibly the most valuable information they can supply to teams, which is why they have so many MLB teams as clients.

Edit:  Added explanatory paragraph

I should add that it isn’t simply recording “good fielding play” or “defensive misplay.”  I need to distinguish which type of GFP or DM it is.  For example, there are 55 different defensive misplays and 27 different good fielding plays.  Examples of DMs: Failing to reach a fair pop up, failing to reach a foul pop up, bobbling a ground out/losing the lead runner, failing to cover the base (they should just rename this The Prince Fielder).  Examples of GFPs: catches wild throw, quick double play pivot, outfielder prevents the advancement of runners, potential wild pitch catch.    There are also possible outcomes–what happened as a result of the play.  Example: The recording of an out which was unlikely when the play began.  There is a specific code for each GFP and DM.  The code is as follows: (Good Fielding Play #); (Fielder Position #); (Consequence #); (Action #).  Example:  If the center fielder robs a home run on the second pitch to the first batter of the inning, I need to record it as GFP24;8;2;2.

If that all seems confusing, it’s probably because it kind of is.  I sure have my work cut out for me, although I’m guessing I should get the hang of it before long.

Since I don’t start for a week, I plan on using this time to do some updates on the blog.  Also, look for my annual “I received my BP Manual” post with my observations on the Brewers’ PECOTA projects this week.

Finally, I have made the decision that every post to get a ‘Crocodile Blood’ tag also gets a different VVP glamour shot.  Enjoy.

Ol’ Jimmy B

Posted by Steve

I wanted to quickly chime in on the resignation of Jim Bowden, Washington Nationals GM.  He was accused of skimming signing bonuses, and although he maintains he is innocent, resigned because he has “become a distraction.”

Huh?

Someone please let me know if they disagree, but that seems weak to me.  Put yourself in his shoes (or at least what he’s claiming are his shoes).  You have been accused of skimming, but you’re actually innocent.  The investigation is getting some media attention, so your response is to… leave your job?  As the general manager of a Major League Baseball team?

I’m not buying it for a second.  If you’re innocent, why willingly walk away from your job?  Wouldn’t you fight to prove your innocence and keep your job instead of leaving before charges are even made?

Regardless of what actually happened, we’re out another incompetent GM in baseball.  It’s actually amazing he hadn’t been fired yet.  This has been rough.  The past couple years have taken Bill Bavasi, Dave Littlefield, Wayne Krivsky and now Jim Bowden from us.  There aren’t many GMs left to mock!  Sure there’s still a group that includes Brian Sabean, Ed Wade and Ned Colletti, but that group is much less impressive than it was a few short years ago.  Bowden was right at the head of the pack, too.  He hasn’t done anything in his tenure in Washington to make them better, or really even to give them much hope for the future.  Plus, he always came across as arrogant and strange.  Check out this awesome photo from when he signed Ken Griffey as Reds GM.

Do you think this photo shoot was required in Juniors contract?  How uncomfortable does he look?

Do you think this photo shoot was written into Junior's contract?