Monthly Archives: April 2009

Home Opener Pseudo Game Blog

Posted on April 10, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I sit here typing and listening to the game as Ryan Braun faces Carlos Marmol with two outs and two on in the seventh.  Biggest moment of the game so far, preceded by an improbable walk drawn by Corey Hart.  Hart fell down 0-2 to Marmol, and at that point I figure his odds of reaching base were about 1-75.  Braun is now down 0-2 as well… 

And Braun flew out.  Drat.

Some thoughts and observations about the game so far…

  • My MLBTV subscription is still not working, and I’m getting pretty cheesed about it.  I’ve been assured the blackout issues will be solved by next week, but having to listen to these games when I could be watching is very annoying.
  • I have been informed from multiple sources that Bill’s scouting reports have been disturbingly un-ridiculous for the most part this season.  It’s still a small sample size, so I have hope things will still get going.  If nothing else, I now have access to 29 other broadcasts, most of which have equally absurd anecdotes.  The fan question the other day for the Orioles’ broadcast was: What’s the difference between a fly ball and a pop-up?  You can’t make this crap up.
  • It sounds as though home plate umpire Jim Reynolds’ strike zone is terrible.  Brewerfan posters were really complaining, and the radio guys questioned some calls as well.  Apparently several gameday strikes were called balls for Looper.
  • Looper seemed to pitch halfway decent from what I can tell.
  • Seth McClung is not good.  He walks too many guys and falls behind way too often.  I’d rather have him as a starter where he can work around his walks, but yet I’d probably prefer to give DiFelice the shot as the sixth starter over McClung.  Quite the conundrum.  Regardless, allowing a home run to Koyie Hill is awfully embarrassing.
  • Some people questioned Macha not intentionally walking Hill to face Harden in the sixth, but I liked the move.  The Cubs would have pinch hit for Harden regardless, and while it would have removed Harden from the game, a pinch hitter could have done more damage than Koyie Freaking Hill.  The bottom line is McClung needs to get Hill out.
  • This is where I really hate having Villanueva as the closer.  Instead of Villanueva pitching these important innings to bridge to the ninth, it’s guys like McClung, Julio and Coffey.  The Cubs, unfortunately, are doing things the right way.  If Marmol was their closer, which is what so many of their fans want to see, they’d have used Kevin Gregg against Hart and Braun in that tense seventh inning instead of Marmol.

Heyo a Charter Communications Double Play to get the lawn gnome Aaron Miles! LAWN GNOME GIDP! Moving on…

  • Not to draw too much from one game, but it sounds like Rickie Weeks is really flashing the leather this game.  Between today and yesterday, it seems like he’s been just as unlucky offensively as he was last season.
  • I’m pretty much caught up here, so let’s get to the live game.  Fielder drew a leadoff walk, and Hardy just lined out to left on what sounded like a pretty nice play by Soriano.  Too bad.
  • Cameron grounds out on a fielder’s choice, and Piniella makes another pitching change.  He’s going through his whole freaking bullpen.  Extra innings would be fun.
  • And Bill Hall is quickly dispatched on strikes by Kevin Gregg.  Seems like he still can’t hit lefties, which is only supported by several hundred plate appearances.
  • I wouldn’t mind DiFelice in this situation, or maybe if he kept in Coffey.  I don’t want to see Jorge Julio.
  • Oooh, Villanueva in a game down by one!  A bit unusual, but I like it!  Very un-Yost-like.
  • And Villanueva carves up the Cubs in quick order.  Love ya kid.
  • Here we go.  Let’s get the Cubs’ new closer in the home opener.  That would make for quite a finish for all you drunken hooligans at the game.

  • Kendall led off unfortunately, and he grounded out to third.  This year’s start is a bit different than last year when he held that .400 batting average for quite awhile, which in turn allowed him to avoid criticism for the entire season despite his terrible offense.  Holy run-on.
  • Big spot here for Chris Duffy. 3-1 count… let’s go.  Set the stage for Rickie!
  • OMG Duffy walks.  If Rickie Weeks walks this off I’m going to get a noise citation from my landlord, and possibly arrested for indecent exposure.
  • 2-1 count.  Grip it and rip it kid.
  • WOOO!!!  Double over Soriano’s head!  Ah let’s go Corey!  Do it Goblalien!
  • Rickie I love you!  Wild pitch and Weeks gets “a great jump” (Ueck’s words) and advances to third.  Come on Corey, just put it in play!
  • Ball 4!  Down to Ryan Braun with one out and runners on first and third.  This is going to happen… I don’t think they’ll screw this up.
  • WOOO!!! Game over!  
  • Wow, it took a phone call from a friend to figure out what actually happened.  Ueck wasn’t totally clear, and it seemed like an odd play, but I didn’t even know there had been a play at the plate until I got that call.  Ueck said he thought Theriot would go for a double play, and then said, “And they’ll get nothing!” I’ve been informed it was a great slide on a close play by Weeks.
  • Hopefully Gregg blows a couple more, and then the Cubs decide they need Marmol at closer after all.
  • Awesome, awesome home opener.  Nothing better than beating the Cubs.  And how about my boi?  Rickie Weeks, your Chevrolet Player of the Game! Keep turnin’ up the heat!

weeks041009

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Game Blog

I see your Benjie Molina, and Raise you…Todd Coffey

Posted on April 8, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Dan

BA: “Well the bases are loaded now with the Giants best hitter, Benjie Molina coming to the plate.”

Bill: “Well that’s why it looks like Macha is going to turn it over to Todd Coffey.”

Seriously? What’s worse: The Giants best hitter very well could be Benji Molina, or that TODD COFFEY is our response?

Also, Erin thouroughly enjoyed Coffey’s spring to the mound.

→ 3 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

4/7/09 Brewers at Giants – Opening Day!

Posted on April 7, 2009 by | 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

College basketball just ended.  I’ve finally updated the largely unnecessary player cards on the sidebar.  Dusty Baker allowed a top-of-the-rotation starter coming off a serious arm injury throw 114 pitches over five innings on a 40 degree day.  Yep… Must be Opening Day!

The Brewers take on the Giants today in quite the lopsided pitching matchup:  Jeff Suppan vs. Tim Lincecum.  I don’t really get using Suppan as the Opening Day starter, but in the grand scheme it really doesn’t matter.  The other notable change this year is Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy have switched spots in the lineup.  I like Hardy hitting second, but if it helps Hart develop some patience then I won’t complain.

The weather seems shaky today in San Francisco, but the game is ready to begin without any delay.  Let’s get 2009 underway!

———————

Hey, sweet.  I paid for MLBTV, and yet their feed isn’t working.  I’ve called tech support twice, and still no dice.  It doesn’t seem as though I’ll be able to even watch this game until after it ends.  The best part is I haven’t been following it to this point because I was hoping to start from the beginning, so now I get to follow online from midway through the game!  BEST GAMEBLOG EVER.

Maybe I’ll blog the archived game, even though that seems kind of dumb.  I guess we’ll see.  Hope everyone’s enjoying the game.

→ 5 Comments

Posted in Game Blog, Milwaukee Brewers 2009

2009 PECOTA Projections – Pitching

Posted on April 6, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I promised BP’s pitching projections, so here you go.  Pitching projections are a bit tricky, because with the high risk for injury, Innings Pitched projections are somewhat of a crapshoot.  Most pitchers will miss at least a start or two throughout the season, and many will miss a lot more than that.  For this reason, they project most starters for well under 200 innings.  Therefore, instead of strikeout and walk totals, I’ll use strikeout rate, walk rate and strikeout-to-walk ratios.

Yovani Gallardo

3.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.54  K/BB, 9.00 K/9, 3.54 BB/9

Personally, this seems to be a pretty conservative projection for Yo.  Not saying that I’d be unhappy with that line, but I wouldn’t put a better season past him.

You can look at this two ways.  If he gives this line over around 200 innings, you’d have to be very pleased.  Yet, if you were looking at him to replace the production of Ben Sheets, this projection would fall a bit short.  Expecting Sheets’ production out of Yo is asking a little too much in my opinion.

Dave Bush

4.27 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.56 K/BB, 5.89 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

That’s pretty much the line of a solid number three starter, which is what the Brewers need Bush to be.  BP expects more of the same from Bush, whose staple is a low walk rate.  Of all the Brewers’ starters, Bush is probably the easiest to project and the safest bet for a full, solid season.

Manny Parra

4.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB, 7.35 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

PECOTA anticipates the same problem for Parra as last season, which is walks.  He walked 4.1 per nine innings last year as well, so they aren’t even predicting a slight improvement in that department.  That would be disappointing, because Parra taking a step forward into a number 2-ish starter would be a huge boost, but it’s probably unlikely.

Braden Looper

4.62 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.06 K/BB, 5.01 K/9, 2.43 BB/9

This certainly isn’t anything exciting from Looper, but it’s also about what the Brewers are paying him for.  He doesn’t strike out many, but he doesn’t walk many either.

Jeff Suppan

4.91 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.6 K/BB, 5.00 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Blah.  That’s the production from a fourth or fifth starter who’s making a couple million bucks, and Suppan is being paid like a top-of-the-rotation guy.  The strikeout/walk ratio is pretty poor.  BP actually has him for a slight improvement from last season, which was probably affected negatively by his injury.  Still, that contract is a killer the next two years.

Trevor Hoffman

3.41 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.6 K/BB, 7.5 K/9, 2.09 BB/9

These are comparable to Hoffman’s last few seasons, and it would likely make him the Brewers best reliever.  You just have to hope his abdoment strain doesn’t linger.

Carlos Villanueva

3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.45 K/BB, 7.46 K/9, 3.05 BB/9

That’s an above average reliever, but that’s even more valuable if the Brewers continue to use Villy as a multi-inning reliever, or relief-ace a la Carlos Marmol.  BP projects him for 85 2/3 innings, which means they think he will be used that way.  Hoffman’s injury is bothersome not only because Hoffman is out, but because Villanueva will be taken out of that multi-inning role until Hoffman returns.

Mitch Stetter

3.86 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.92 K/BB, 9.06 K/9, 4.72 BB/9

As the Brewers’ lone lefty reliever, Stetter will play a large role this season.  He’s better against righties than his predecessor Brian Shouse, which theoretically should make him more valuable than a traditional LOOGY.  Stetter is plagued by walks at times, but he has a nasty slider that gets him a lot of strikeouts as well.

David Riske

4.76 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1.44 K/BB, 6.56 K/9, 4.54 BB/9

Ouch.  BP obviously doesn’t expect Riske to rebound to his pre-2008 form after an injury-plagued season.  He had a rough spring, so hopefully he gets it going and can outdo this projection, which pretty much represents a mop-up reliever.  The Brewers paid him a sizable contract as well.

Seth McClung

4.51 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.58 K/BB, 7.83 K/9, 4.73 BB/9

As a starter, that’s a decent line.  As a reliever… Not so much.  That’s simply too many walks from a relief pitcher, which has always been McClung’s achilles heel.  He has outperformed this line each of the past two seasons, so it seems BP is being conservative with him as well.

Mark DiFelice

3.99 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.75 K/BB, 7.34 K/9, 1.96 BB/9

My man Mark!  How about that projection?  And the best part is they project that over 92 innings!  That would be extremely valuable.  If you don’t walk guys, you are generally effective, and 1.96 BB/9 is a great number.  I’ve been telling all the guys here to watch out for DiFelice, and most didn’t even know who he is.  Hopefully he backs me up this year.

Todd Coffey

4.21 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.88 K/BB, 6.86 K/9, 3.66 BB/9

Another unexciting line from the bullpen, but it’s not terrible.  Not much else to say, really.

Jorge Julio

4.25 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.75 K/BB, 9.45 K/9, 5.4 BB/9

Another high strikeout, high walk guy.  Not exactly an ideal reliever, but then again, he’s cheap this year.

——————-

I mentioned in my post on offensive PECOTA projections that I think the Brewers’ offense will score more runs this season.  That will be necessary, because the Crew simply doesn’t have the firepower in the starting rotation they did last season.  The encouraging thing, though, is that this rotation isn’t much different than the rotation that got the Brewers out to a great start in the first couple months last year (Gallardo instead of Sheets is the only real difference).  If they are competitive again, there will be plenty of teams selling off starters.  Halladay and Peavy are two big names, but it could even be someone of lesser status.

I have more concern about the bullpen.  Guys I like include Hoffman, Villanueva, Stetter and DiFelice, but I’m not as crazy about McClung, Riske, Coffey and Julio.  Middle relief will be shaky and could surrender many walks.  At this point I consider the bullpen the weakest point on the team.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Projections

Housecleaning

Posted on April 5, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Thankfully, this extra long Spring Training is almost over.  I’ve had enough of the fluff stories (hey, did you see in the JS that Ken Macha is impressed with his assistant coaches!?) and am more than ready to actually have something of substance to follow.

There have been a couple roster moves in the past week that I’ve liked quite a bit.  The first should come as no surprise–Tony Gwynn being waived.  Not that I like Chris Duffy a lot or anything, but Gwynn simply doesn’t hit and really doesn’t belong in the Majors.  The fact that he wasn’t claimed by any team should speak volumes.  Gwynn returns to AAA Nashville, but he’s no longer on the 40 man roster.

This, in a way, is almost bittersweet for me.  Gwynn has been the source of some of my better Brewer blowups/rants over the years (okay, actually the source was Ned Yost for using him, but whatever), possibly headlined by the game against Boston last year in which he was the freaking designated hitter.

The other move I’m excited about is the claiming of Joe Koshansky from Texas.  Koshansky is a 26-year-old first baseman who spent most of his career in the Rockies’ system.  He hit .300/.380/.600 in 526 plate appearances for AAA Colorado Springs last year, and was up with the Rockies for 18 games as well.

I like this claiming for a number of reasons.  First, he can clearly hit.  Even in a hitter-friendly league, a .980 OPS is noteworthy.  He shouldn’t be expected to be a monster hitter in the bigs, but he seems like a poor man’s Adam Dunn or Russell Branyan in that he strikes out a ton but also has a good eye at the plate.  He’s likely better than some MLB first baseman right now (Mike Jacobs in KC, Kendry Morales in Anaheim, whoever is playing first in Florida, to name a few).  Second, this gives the Brewers another potential candidate at first base if the Brewers opt to trade Prince Fielder in the future.  Koshansky has an option left, so he’ll spend this season as the starting first baseman in Nashville.

With Gwynn’s release and Hoffman’s DL stint, the roster is set.  The last guys on the team appeared to have been Jorge Julio and Mark DiFelice (my boy!) on the pitching side and Brad Nelson and Chris Duffy on the bench.  Duffy is valuable because he’s a better hitter than Gwynn yet can play all three positions.  Nelson’s the best bat on the bench, but his value may be limited because he’s only a 1B and a sort-of corner outfielder (he’s just really slow-footed).

I happen to have Tuesday off, so I plan on watching the game and will probably do a game blog.  I’m still planning to do the PECOTA pitching projections post before then as well.  I also have a fantasy draft tonight during the first game of the season.  Ah, baseball is finally here!

→ 3 Comments

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009