What in Tarnation is wrong with JJ Hardy?

Posted by Dan

First off, let’s make it 3 in a row for the word “Tarnation.” I think we may need a new tag. Also, props to wordpress and its security.  I, for whatever reason, couldn’t remember my password after posting just a few days ago, and when I asked for a new one, I received an e-mail.  Let’s just say the new password was about 10-digits long, made no sense, and included an ampersand and two parentheses.

The Crew is currently under a rain delay in Detroit.  Braden Looper is/was unraveling by allowing 4 runs in the 4th inning (7 ER through 3 2/3).  The game so far has featured 2 home runs which were initially ruled incorrectly (Miguel Cabrera HR ruled in play, and a Dusty Ryan HR which clearly hit the top of the wall and stayed in).  Upon review, both HRs were overturned and correctly ruled.  Nevertheless, Davey doesn’t like instant replay. He says the 4 umpires will get together and make a correct call on their own, despite them twice failing to do so, presumably right in front of his face in the past 20 minutes.  Anyways, onto the topic of this post.  So, what is J.J. Hardy’s freakin problem?

I mean, he’s 0-2 today! What is wrong with him? Ok. He also has a svelte .546 OPS over the past calender month and a .645 OPS for the season.  Well, good new Brewer fans, I’m here to tell you it’s going to be ok.  J.J.  Hardy is the streakiest hitter ever. He has a streakiness quotient of 2.1 over his career. Actually, as far as I can tell, there is no stat for streakiness, so let’s look at some real stats:

In 2007, Hardy posted a season long .786 OPS.  Yet, on a month by month basis, he OPSed the following: .869 .961 .685 .558. .821 .744

In 2008, Hardy posted a season long .821 OPS. Monthly it broke down like this: .628 .701 .969 1.031 .873 .751

This year, he’s gone .509 .888 .482

I’m not concerned. He has 6 months out of 12 (2007/2008 as well as all 3 this year) where he has OPSed either 100 points above or below his season long OPS.  Hardy has pretty clearly defined what he is at this point in his career and I’d bet my bottom dollar (whatever than means) that when the dust settles in October, Hardy possesses a .760-.830 OPS and is a very valuable player.  His line drive percentage of 15.0% is right in line with the past two years (15.5% in 2008, and 17.2% in 2007) which doesn’t indicate a decrease in skill or worsening approach.  Only 8.1% of his fly balls are going for HR’s which is well below his number the past two years (14.1% and 12.5%).  His K:BB ratio is almost unchanged — it’s actually slightly better.  After being 1.88 and 1.82 the past two years, it stands at 1.56 this year.  This implies he’s not up there hacking away willy nilly.  The main culprit is going to be that low HR/FB rate, as well as a ridiculous .236 BABIP.  Sooner or later, the line drives will fall in, the fly balls will start leaving, and we’ll start wondering something else.  Suggestions include: “What in tarnation is Ken Macha thinking not pinch hitting for Jason Kendall late in close games”, or “What in tarnation can I, as a Brewer fan, do to bring Corey Hart circa 2007 back?