Monthly Archives: July 2009

Not must-win… But really-try-to-win

Posted on July 27, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I despise the phrase “must-win” in baseball because no individual game in a baseball season before September can ever actually be a “must-win” game, just by simple definition.  That said, this four-game series against the Nationals has carries much more importance than you might expect.

With the trade deadline looming in just four days, how the Brewers do over the next few days could impact whether the team makes a last minute deal to add pitching.  A month ago the Brewers looked to be in a strong position to acquire pitching, but they’re definitely heading in the wrong direction.  They’ve lost 14 of their last 21, which should eliminate them from trading anything of value for a rental player.  It’s extremely disappointing, especially when you consider that a year ago the Brewers had finished off one of the greatest series in years, that glorious four-game sweep in St. Louis.  At this point, if they make a trade, it had better be for someone who either comes cheap or is under team control beyond this season.

If the Brewers lose, say, three out of the next four to the lowly Nats, they’ll be two games under .500 up against the deadline.  At that point, if Doug Melvin hasn’t done anything yet, he may not pull the trigger on anything.

Unfortunately, this is probably the worst position the Brewers could be in at the deadline.  Last year it was clear that the correct move was buying because the team was playing well.  When Melvin started in Milwaukee, the clear move around this time was to buy.  This year, the Brewers find themselves in no-man’s land.  They aren’t playing well enough that adding a piece or two is the obvious move, but their record isn’t bad enough to consider selling off pieces like Mike Cameron, Braden Looper or Trevor Hoffman.  As badly as they’ve played over the last month, they are amazingly only three games out.

If they win the next few games, I’d still expect Melvin to do something before the deadline.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009, Transactions

Overpaying for the win!

Posted on July 24, 2009 by | 7 Comments

Posted by Steve

The Cardinals made a big move today, trading three players for Matt Holliday.  They gave up last year’s first round pick and Baseball America’s 21st ranked prospect according to their mid-season rankings, third baseman Brett Wallace.  They also got AAA pitcher Clayton Mortenson and AA outfielder Shane Peterson.

I’m not going to act like I’m happy that the Cardinals made this move, because as of today this makes them the favorites in the NL Central.  But I definitely wouldn’t be pleased if I was a Cardinals fan.  They gave up at least as much as the Brewers gave up for CC Sabathia, except they’re getting back a player who won’t have nearly the same impact.  Holliday is a free agent at the end of the season, so he’s a rental just like Sabathia.  If Wallace can stick at third, he’s more valuable than Matt LaPorta, the centerpiece of the Sabathia deal.

Here’s some pretty revealing analysis by fangraphs.  You’ll notice they have this trade as very lopsided in Oakland’s favor, and that’s when they assumed it would be just Wallace going for Holliday instead of two additional players.  Fangraphs had the Brewers trade for CC as a wash last year.  Again, that’s because an ace pitcher is that much more valuable than a good but not great corner outfielder.

This is exactly what Billy Beane had in mind when he traded for Holliday in the off-season.  He took a shot at having a winning team, but you know he figured he’d end up flipping Holliday at the deadline.  He definitely came out ahead because he got back more value than he gave up to get Holliday in the first place.

Again, this is bad news for this season.  If the Brewers don’t make a pretty big move for a pitcher, they probably won’t win the division.  If you listen to ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian, we should really be worried.  He says this is a great trade for the Cards because Matt Holliday “is a real baseball player.  He’s going to a real baseball town.  He is a perfect match.  He’s playing for Tony LaRussa.  He’s the son of a coach.”

This is of course in direct contrast to Brett Wallace, who is the son of a traveling salesman, from a town more inclined to embrace football and is, in fact, a virtual baseball player.

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Might as well talk about Roy Halladay

Posted on July 20, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I don’t feel like saying much about yesterday’s game, except that if Seth McClung is still on the roster in a month I’ll be convinced that the Brewers aren’t interested in contending this year.  Instead, let’s go for something more exciting.

The trade deadline is suddenly just a couple weeks away, and talks of where Mega-Ace Roy Halladay might end up is the hot issue in baseball.  The Brewers are one of a handful of teams who have confirmed interest in Halladay.

This is interesting, because it conflicts with the reports a couple weeks ago that Doug Melvin considers Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel untouchable.  If that’s the case, the Brewers don’t have a shot at Halladay–any trade talks for Halladay will start with at least one of them.

This must mean that the Brewers are at least entertaining the idea of moving one or even both of their top two prospects.  Melvin changed his tune just a bit the other day, instead saying that they are “as close to untouchable as you can get.”  That implies that there could be exceptions to that rule.  That’s a good thing, because Halladay definitely qualifies as an exception.

When it was first revealed a few weeks ago that the Blue Jays would entertain offers for Halladay, I didn’t expect the Brewers to be involved.  The asking price is unquestionably sky high, and I assumed the Brewers wouldn’t be willing to meet it.

Naturally, the topic of Halladay came up a lot at work, and the more I talked about it, the more I started to come around to the idea of meeting that price.

There are definitely good reasons to keep their top guys.  Gamel should be the full time third baseman by next season, and despite his unimpressive numbers so far, I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen from him both offensively and defensively.  Escobar would likely be the shortstop by 2011 at the latest, and possibly by next season if the team decides to move J.J. Hardy before then.  That’s two players who profile as above average starters who’d be under team control for six years each.  Obviously, that’s a very valuable asset.

There are also very good reasons for giving up a lot for Halladay, though.  We saw firsthand how much acquiring an ace can tip the scales in a playoff race.  Halladay is actually a better pitcher than CC Sabathia (not that anyone should be expected to match what CC did in Milwaukee last year, but Halladay is the better pitcher overall).  The key here, though, is that Halladay is not a rental pitcher.  He’s under contract for next season as well.  Acquiring Halladay would be as much about 2010 as it would be about this year.  That extra year of service adds a ton of value, and it’s why the Jays can (and should) expect a lot more than what the Brewers gave up for Sabathia last season.

The key is Alcides Escobar.  I see no way of acquiring Halladay without trading Escobar.  The Blue Jays are looking for a long-term solution at short, and from what I’ve read, they love Escobar.  I personally am not crazy about giving up both Gamel and Escobar for Halladay, but I’m not convinced the Brewers would need to.  With my usual disclaimer that I generally don’t make a lot of trade proposals, here’s what I’ve come up with for Halladay.

Brewers receive Roy Halladay

Blue Jays receive SS Alcides Escobar, 2B Brett Lawrie, SP Wily Peralta

That’s pretty much as high as I’d be willing to go.  That’s the number 1 (Escobar), 3 (Lawrie) and probably 10 or so (Peralta) prospects in the Brewers’ system.  Escobar’s praises are well known, and Lawrie was the team’s first round pick just last year, so obviously that’s a big package in itself.  Peralta is a 20 year old pitcher who’s throwing very well this year, though he’s only in A ball.

That may not be completely ideal for Toronto, as they reportedly want more pitching, but I don’t believe many teams could top that offer.  One may be the Phillies, who I see as the favorite to get Halladay if he is even traded this year.  Although Escobar is a higher rated prospect than anyone in their system, they have higher level pitching than the Brewers.  An offer of SPs Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek along with OF Dominic Brown would probably top my offer, as both Carrasco and Drabek are pretty close to the majors.  I also think the Phillies are more willing to part with their top prospects than the Brewers since they’re more of a playoff team at this point.

I’ll also throw out another off the wall idea as long as we’re shooting for the moon.  If the Blue Jays didn’t take that offer, I’d take that same offer to Arizona for Dan Haren.  I see no reason for Arizona to be shopping Haren, as he’s under control long-term and I don’t think the Diamondbacks think they’ll be bad team for the next few years.  Yet, Ken Rosenthal reported a few weeks ago that Arizona might be willing to trade Haren if they received an “overwhelming” offer.  Is this offer overwhelming?  I guess I’m not sure.  It’s certainly more than what they sent to the A’s to acquire him a couple years ago, but with as good as he’s been, it might not be.

Giving up Escobar+ for an ace like Halladay or Haren would be mortgaging the future quite a bit, but it greatly increases the odds of a championship this season and next.  The Brewers would instantly become the favorites in the NL Central this year, and they’d once again be able to go for broke next season with the base of Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Gallardo still intact.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009, Prospects/Minor Leagues, Transactions

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New leadoff hitter

Posted on July 19, 2009 by | 7 Comments

Posted by Steve

Here I was, well into a post about Roy Halladay when the Brewers so rudely interrupted with a trade.  They have just acquired Arizona second baseman Felipe Lopez for AAA outfielder Cole Gillespie and A reliever Roque Mercedes.

Lopez is a solid player, and I expect him to be the full time second baseman the rest of the year and also hit leadoff.  He plays good defense at second, short and third, and has good average and OBP skills.  He’s hitting .305/.368/.416 this season.  The best part: Lopez is a free agent at the end of the year, which means second base will still belong to Rickie Weeks next season.  Lopez is also likely to be a Type B free agent, which means the Brewers will get a compensation pick for him.

I’ve always had a soft spot for Cole Gillespie.  I went to the College World Series and saw him play for Oregon State just a couple weeks after the Brewers drafted him.  I’ve followed him pretty closely as he made his way up the minor league ranks.  He has decent speed, good on base skills and some pop.  It’s pretty clear that he’ll be a major leaguer before long, but once I remove myself from my fanboy-dom for Gillespie, I can’t say he profiles as much more than a fourth outfielder.  The pick the Brewers will get for Lopez has a good chance to be a similar caliber of player.

If I had to guess the corresponding roster move, I’d guess Mat Gamel will be optioned back to AAA to get regular playing time.  My preference is to see Gamel playing nearly every day at third, but since it seems Ken Macha simply won’t do that, I’d rather see him playing every day in Nashville than burning up service time warming the bench.  Lopez will play second and lead off, while McGehee and Counsell will likely handle third.  Counsell has done a good job this season, but I don’t mind giving his knees more of a rest.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009, Prospects/Minor Leagues, Transactions

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Remind me a year from now…

Posted on July 14, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I don’t normally care much about the home run derby, particularly because Chris Berman makes my ears bleed, but that was pretty cool.  If nothing else, it was good to have something positive after a rough end to the first half of the season.  Prince stole the show.  This photo by ESPN is awesome.

And how great is it that he did the “untuckem” in front of the very fanbase who is so offended by it?  I couldn’t believe that dude from MLB mentioned it when he presented the trophy.  I could just picture Rick Horton’s blood boiling.  He’s the Cardinals announcer who said untucking jerseys after a win is the most disrespectful thing he’s seen (paraphrasing).

I’m really going to have to remember to live-blog the derby next year just for the sheer absurdity of the commentary.  In fact, if anyone reads this and remembers next year, please remind me.  While the ESPN broadcast wasn’t anything special (we heard better insight in two minutes of Albert Pujols talking about Prince Fielder than any of the analysts), I noticed they nipped the Rick Reilly experiment in the bud after on year. It’s a bad night to be an atheist! Sha-wuhhh?

For what it’s worth, and since I should probably say something more than “hey that was a cool home run derby,” I’m not worried about a big power drop from Fielder because he participated in the derby.  He has a pretty natural uppercut swing (as Joe Morgan pointed out about 47 times during the broadcast).  He also hit 50 homers in 2007, the last time he was in the derby.  Generally, I think the impact that it has on players is pretty overblown.

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All things Ryan Braun

Posted on July 7, 2009 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

A year ago I wrote a post about Ryan Braun that was not well-received by many.  What I criticized him for last year has amazingly become a strength in just one season:  his plate discipline.  He has made tremendous strides in this area, and a year after his OBP was in the low .300s, it’s now .409.  He’s currently only seven walks shy of his total for all of 2008.  While last year he was just a free swinger with power, he is now an offensive force.  This was exactly what I was referring to last year and what I hoped he’d improve on.  He deserves to be an All-Star starter this year.

I was planning on a lengthier post about Braun improving into an elite player this season, but recent events have me taking a different route.  Braun, who hasn’t been afraid to share his opinion in the past, did so again on Sunday.  This time, however, he crossed the line with some of the things he said.  He told reporters after the Cubs game that the Brewers need to make a move to add pitching.  You can read his full comments in the link, but here are the highlights.

Regardless of the reasons, we’ve got to find a way to throw the ball a little bit better for us to have success. When you’re constantly behind in games, it’s not easy and not fun.

Their starting pitching was clearly a lot better than ours in this series. All four guys we saw in this series are No. 1, worst-case, No. 2 type starters. They make big pitches in big situations. You’re not always going to get hits in those situations.

Here’s what bugged me about these comments.  First of all, does he think the Brewers’ front office isn’t aware of the situation?  Does he think Doug Melvin saw his quote and said to himself, ‘You know, I hadn’t noticed it until Ryan pointed it out, but our pitching hasn’t actually been that good!’

Secondly, calling out the pitchers specifically is way out of line.  Last year after the Brewers were swept out of Boston, Braun made similar “we need to play better” type comments, but those were in reference to the team in general.  Here he’s really point the finger at just a few players.

It seems that Doug Melvin shares that opinion, because today he dropped the hammer.  Highlights:

To make the statements he made and also get on his teammates like that, it was irresponsible on his part. It just ticked me off.

We all work every day from 9 a.m. to midnight, and basically 12 months a year,” said Melvin, referring to his baseball staff. I’ll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I’ll give him a badge and he can be my deputy.

…

I think he made a fundamental mistake.  I didn’t hear our pitchers complaining when we lost a 1-0 game (to New York last week) or the 2-1 game in 10 innings in Chicago.

They didn’t say the hitters weren’t doing their job. He’s hitting in front of one of the best hitters (Prince Fielder) in the game.

Melvin is peeved.  I should mention that I don’t expect this to be a big issue.  Braun will likely apologize for his comments tomorrow, and it should be water under the bridge soon enough.  Mainly, I just wanted to post some of Melvin’s sick burns.  I encourage you to check out that link, because there are more quotes than what I pasted.

How long until someone creates a Deputy Braun shirt?  I know I’d buy one.  I think his new nickname needs to be The Deputy.

Edit: And sure enough, after I wrote this I headed over to Brewerfan to find this gem.

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Ever see a walkoff strikeout?

Posted on July 3, 2009 by | 6 Comments

Posted by Steve

Please, Bill Welke, don’t keep us from starting your 4th of July Weekend early.

Nothing like losing to the Cubs.  Better yet is losing to the Cubs on a lousy call.  Mark DiFelice struck out Jake Fox with the bases loaded, but instead Welke called it a ball and the Brewers lost a heartbreaker.

Should make for a fun 4th of July weekend.

In case you’re wondering, pitch 9 is the one he called a ball.  Yet another reason for electronic strike zones.  Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until this happens to the Yankees, Red Sox or ironically, Cubs for it to get enough national attention.  I look forward to the day it finally happens.

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Wrapping up June with a Thought Cornucopia

Posted on July 1, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

JSOnline.com

Heckuva game tonight!  That picture just about says it all.  When Mike Burns defeats Johan Santana, it’s safe to describe that as stealing a win.  After a rough stretch, the Brewers have rattled off four wins in five games and are back atop the NL Central.  There are plenty of things to talk about lately, and it’s been awhile since we’ve had a Cornucopia of Thoughts, so let’s get this party started quickly.

———————

We’ll start with the bad news.  Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers’ top pitching prospect entering the year and a first round pick from a few years ago, has been suspended 100 games for testing positive for a “substance of abuse.”  If you’re wondering why it’s such a harsh punishment, it’s because this is actually the third time Jeffress has tested positive.  He actually served a 50-game suspension two years ago for the same problem, and if he manages to test positive one more time, he faces a lifetime ban from minor league baseball.

Jeffress has admitted to testing positive for marijuana in the past, and it’s being assumed that this latest positive test is also from marijuana.  A lifetime ban might seem harsh, but regardless of your views on the the legalization issue, it’s pretty much impossible to defend Jeffress at this point.  His value is just about nil now, and he’s dangerously close to throwing away his baseball career.  This is a tough blow for an organization that’s already short on impact pitching.

———————

I’ve become pretty annoyed by the Brewers’ treatment of Mat Gamel.  There’s no reason he should be sitting on the bench as much as he has.  I understand that Casey McGehee is playing great, but there’s no reason Craig Counsell should be playing over Gamel as much as he has.  Ken Macha is obviously not crazy about having Gamel’s defense in the lineup, but how is Gamel supposed to improve his defense if he isn’t playing?

The bottom line is that if Gamel isn’t going to get regular playing time in Milwaukee, he needs to be back in AAA so he can continue to work on his defense.  The argument may be that the Brewers are in “win now” mode, and that Gamel should be up because he makes the big league club better, but that’s not even necessarily the case.  The Brewers have an infielder in the minors, Adam Heether, who is lighting up AAA to the tune of a .991 OPS.  They could easily swap out Gamel for Heether and not miss a beat from what they’ve had since Gamel’s been up.  Heether is 27, so there’s not the same need to get him playing time that there is with Gamel.

I hate to see Gamel burning up service time if he’s not even going to get semi-regular playing time.

———————

For whatever reason, Mark DiFelice hasn’t been placed in the high leverage role that he was before having the sore arm.  He’s pitched in non-close situations frequently since returning to the team, and I can’t figure out why.  What’s troubling to me is that Macha has deferred to Todd Coffey over DiFelice is close situations lately.  Any way you slice it, DiFelice is the superior pitcher.

We saw an example of this in tonight’s game.  With David Wright set to hit, DiFelice was pulled from the game in favor of Coffey.  Can someone please give Macha a copy of DiFelice’s splits?  Right handed hitters are OPSing .390(!) against DiFelice.  That doesn’t scream ‘Take him out of the game’ when the opposing team’s best right-handed hitter is at the plate.

With Stetter against lefites and DiFelice against righties, Macha has some great weapons to bridge the gap to Trevor Hoffman.  He needs to start using DiFelice the way he should be used, which is as a righty neutralizer.

———————

Alright, I have to make one positive point, right?  Prince Fielder is having an absolute monster year.

Twenty home runs is great, as is the .306 batting average, but what’s really made the difference for Prince is his patience.  Fielder has always been a fairly patient hitter, but his eye this year has been outstanding.  His OBP before last night’s game was .424, which is uncharted territory for him (career high of .395).  Barring something very bad, Fielder will shatter the team record for walks in a season.

———————

Time for some tidbits.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned from this job, it’s that nobody enjoys being a Major League baseball player more than Cincinnati Reds infielder Adam Rosales.  This guy is literally always happy when on the baseball field.  At first I couldn’t tell if it bugged me, but now I love when I get a Reds game and he’s in the lineup so I can see what he’ll do next.  Check out his sprint around the bases for his first career home run.  Other great clips that I wasn’t able to find: Rosales leaping into the air with a jumpkick after a Reds walkoff win, and a post-game interview in which he yells, “It’s like a dream come true!” through maniacal laughter.

Check him out the next time you see a Reds game, but do it soon.  Rosales has plummeted to a .561 OPS, so he might not be in the big leagues much longer.

———————

I’m starting to feel like a GM at work, but not because of the job itself.  We’re allowed to switch games, and there are at least four Yankee fans in the office.  This means that whenever I get a Yankee game, I’ll have at least two people ask me to switch.

As the only Brewer fan in the office, this works heavily in my favor.  Yankee fans regularly try to trade me Brewer games for Yankee games.  I even talk like a GM to up the trade value.  “I’m not motivated to move my Yankee game at this time, but I’m willing to listen to offers.”

I had a Yankee game today, and it had more value than normal because Joba Chamberlain was starting (Yankee fans love them some Joba).  I actually had a guy say to me today, “I have some Brewer games next month that I could offer for that game today, but I’d rather acquire Tim’s Brewer game tonight to use and keep those games as bargaining chips down the line.”  Awesome.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Crocodile Blood, DiFeliciousness

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