Monthly Archives: August 2009

This could get ugly

Posted on August 29, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

There’s not much interesting going on with the Brewers right now, but the J.J. Hardy contract situation is quite an exception.  In just a few days (Sept. 1), Hardy will have lost the MLB service time he needed to become a free agent after the 2010 season.

Just to state the obvious quickly:

  • Unless the Brewers recall him before Sept. 1, Hardy will instead be under team control for two more years and won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.
  • If this happens, Hardy will most likely be very ticked off.

The Brewers have said that Hardy’s free agent status wasn’t a primary factor in sending him to the minors.  That’s at least somewhat believable, because Hardy’s poor offensive performance did in fact justify the demotion.  However, you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think it will weigh heavily on their decision.

There has been speculation that Hardy’s agent, along with the players union, would cry foul on the Brewers if this was to happen.  I don’t mean to suck up to the team, but I don’t see a strong case against the Brewers.  This is not an instance like the Twins holding down Francisco Liriano while he was dominating AAA hitters because they wanted to delay his MLB service time.  Hardy is not dominating anything.  In fact, he’s not even staying above water.

In all likelihood, the Brewers hoped Hardy would go down to the minors for a couple weeks, relax and get his bat going.  If he had started hitting, they would have called him up by now and this wouldn’t even be an issue.  Problem is, he’s not still not hitting–not even in the minors.  Extremely small sample size acknowledged, but Hardy has hit .216/.259/.412 in Nashville.  How can anyone claim foul play on the Brewers when Hardy hasn’t earned his way back to Milwaukee?

The way I see it, the Brewers have two choices.  Neither one is all that appealing.

The first option would be to call him back up within the next day or two.  He hasn’t earned it, but at least they wouldn’t ruffle any feathers by messing with his free agency.  If they opted not to trade him, he could be brought back as the shortstop next season without any ill will.

The other option is to keep him in Nashville for the remainder of their season (Sept. 7).  Calling him up the day after his free agency is pushed back would be a low blow, and a painfully obvious one at that.  By keeping him there through the end of the AAA season, it sends the message that Hardy still hasn’t performed well enough to earn his MLB spot back.  It keeps the focus on his performance rather than his contract situation.

There still could be negative consequences to this option, even though it’s the one I advocate.  I don’t think Hardy would have a case because of how poorly he hit, but there could still be an issue with the player’s union.  Even assuming nothing comes of that, Hardy may still be pretty angry with the Brewers.  A worst case scenario could see him refusing to play in Milwaukee and demanding a trade.

Many probably disagree with me at this point, but I’d still like to see Hardy as the Brewers’ shortstop in 2010.  Escobar’s potential is apparent, but Hardy is still the better bet to be the better player next year.  My ideal situation is to let Escobar spend 2010 in AAA and make him hit his way up to the big leagues–something he hasn’t done yet.

This dicy situation may make that impossible, however.  If nothing else, it improves his trade value if a team knows they control him for two more years instead of one.  Unfortunately, Hardy’s poorly timed down year probably kickstarted his departure from Milwaukee earlier than everyone would have liked.

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EDIT!

Looks like I got this post in just before it was irrelevant, because MLB.com just reported the Brewers intend to leave Hardy in AAA past Sept. 1. I’m very curious to see how this plays out.

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Riding it out

Posted on August 25, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

No, I haven’t bailed on the blog just because the Brewers aren’t any good.  I was out of town the past week and haven’t been able to post–though it was a bit refreshing to get away from the games for a few days.  That Pittsburgh series eliminated just about any desire I had to watch Brewers-Nationals for four days.

This is a rough time to be a Brewer fan.  There isn’t much of anything left to play for.  That wouldn’t be a huge deal if the team was expected to be bad, but the Brewers hoped to be a good team.  This has been an extremely disappointing season, and the dog days of summer will be particularly rough because of it.

Not only are the Brewers not good enough to be in the playoff race, but they are also not bad enough to be in another intriguing race.  In the office, there are fans of the Orioles, Nationals, Royals and Padres.  Many of these guys are openly rooting for their team to lose in order to win the race for Bryce Harper in next year’s draft.  Incidentally, they were all pleased with the Brewers for getting swept by the Pirates… Glad to help :/ . Observing this anti-race has been very amusing, and I find myself jealous that my team isn’t in either race.

With all that being said, the Brewers still need to make the best of a bad situation.  Here are things I would like to see over the last five weeks of the season.

Shut down Gallardo

I realize I’ve beaten this to death, so I won’t rehash everything again, but the point is there’s absolutely no reason for Gallardo to be pitching in September.  Yo is at 164.1 innings after throwing just 24 last year.  Sure, the pitching will be gawdawful without him, but who cares?  Wins don’t mean much of anything at this point.  Unfortunately, I’d be shocked to actually see the Brewers do this.

Hand 3B to Gamel

The Brewers botched the handling of Gamel this season, but it’s not too late to amend that somewhat.  He’s started hitting again in AAA the last few weeks.  It’s time to call him up and play him everyday at third base the rest of the season.  The Brewers should be preparing to make Gamel their starting third baseman from the outset of 2010, and giving him peace of mind in the form of regular playing time should help make that happen.

Making this move even more obvious is the clear pain that Casey McGehee is playing through.  McGehee will need surgery in the off-season but has gutted it out in the meantime.  Whether it’s related to his injury is debatable, but McGehee’s numbers have really fallen off.  Play Gamel at third and let McGehee come off the bench the rest of the season.  Unlike the Gallardo one, I’m optimistic that the Brewers will actually make this move.

Make Rivera the starting catcher

Perhaps laser eye surgery isn’t so wonderful after all, as both Bill Hall and Jason Kendall have had abysmal years.  Everyone’s favorite old, gritty, beardy, crazy-eyed catcher appears to be done.  Mike Rivera has gotten more playing time the last couple weeks, but the Brewers should take the next step and make him the “starter” the rest of the season.  They know what they have in Kendall (not much), and I have no interest in him returning to the Brewers unless it’s in a backup role–and even then I wouldn’t be excited.

The Brewers have a couple of catchers close to MLB ready in Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome.  I expect to see Salome called up and given some starts, which means there shouldn’t really be any need to play Kendall more than once a week.  The Brewers will need to decide if Mike Rivera is in their plans beyond this season, and playing him more down the stretch will help them make that decision.

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Sorting through “Black Wednesday”

Posted on August 12, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Things sure hit the fan today.  You’ve probably heard by now, but just to recap, the Brewers made the following moves today.

DFA’d Bill Hall

Optioned J.J. Hardy to AAA Nashville

Called up Alcides Escobar

Called up Jason Bourgeois

Fired Bill Castro

Wow.  That’s a lot to compute, and to be honest, a lot to be angry about.

Hardy

Let’s start with the most shocking move, which has to be sending J.J. Hardy down to AAA.  Hardy has been a gigantic disappointment this year.  He had a great season last year, and he should be right in his physical prime, so this nosedive is perplexing.  Still, this move definitely caught me off guard.

A big wrinkle in this appears to be what this will do for Hardy’s service time.  It seems possible that by sending him to the minors now, he’d lose enough service time to delay his free agent year from 2010 to 2011.  If this move allows the Brewers to keep Hardy for two more year after this season rather than one, it’s a shrewd/dirty move depending on your perspective.  It would allow Hardy another year to rebuild his diminished trade value.

I personally think that if this is the motivation behind the move, it’s a smart play.  Hardy can only blame himself; if he hadn’t had such a poor 2009 he wouldn’t have been sent down.  Doug Melvin seemed to play dumb when asked about this situation, but of course it’s in his best interest to make this move seem entirely performance-based.  Hardy’s performance does justify the demotion, so I’m willing to buy that reasoning.

Escobar

A lot about calling up Alcides Escobar doesn’t sit well with me.  For one, he hasn’t shown he’s at all ready for the Majors.  What’s so special about a .762 OPS in AAA?  He’s only 22; why not make him actually earn his way onto the roster?  By doing this, you’re burning up two months of his service time.  Ironically, this is the same mistake they made with J.J. Hardy years ago.  Hardy was rushed to the big leagues, struggled mightily and is now set to hit free agency a year earlier than if he was kept in AAA.  Escobar at 29 is much more valuable than Escobar at 22.

The other aspect of this that bugs me is Ken Macha’s refusal to play young players.  He botched the Mat Gamel situation miserably, and he seems poised to do it again with Escobar.  Macha is already talking about using Escobar mainly against lefties.  How absurd.  Is Doug Melvin actually going to let this guy platoon each of their two top prospects for extended periods in the same season?  Top prospects need to be playing everyday somewhere.

Much of this Escobar/Hardy situation hinges on what is done for next season.  It is my firm belief that Escobar belongs in AAA to start next season.  He is just not ready to contribute offensively at the big league level.  Jose Reyes, a player many seem to hope Escobar can become, struggled mightily in the Majors early in his career when he should have been down in the minors.  Reyes wasn’t a good offensive player until his fourth season in the majors.  Elvis Andrus, another young shortstop Escobar is often compared to (both are great defenders with good speed), is also an example of a player who’s been rushed.  Andrus has a .685 OPS.  That’s terrible, and the Rangers are foolish for having him up in the majors this season.  I don’t want to see this happen with Escobar, especially if Hardy ends up getting his free agency delayed a year.  Hardy should be the Brewers’ shortstop next year.  As bad as he’s been, he still has had prolonged success at the Major League level and is therefore a much better bet than Escobar in 2010.  If Hardy’s traded, the Brewers need to find a stopgap.  Escobar is still the future, but he needs to earn his way into the starting spot.  It would be nice if he wasn’t an offensive black hole when he took over the shortstop job.

Hall

This really is just an ugly ending to a long, bad story.  This is one that I can’t blame the Brewers for at all.  Hall has been bad ever since signing his contract extension, and he’s actually gotten progressively worse each season.  He even stopped hitting lefties this year, which was his only redeeming quality outside of defense last season.  The Brewers are on the hook for quite a bit of money, but I can’t even blame them for giving Hall that contract.  At that time, he was coming off a great year, and even had a good year prior to that one.  There was no sign whatsoever of such a drastic collapse.  Just about every fan was thrilled when they signed Hall to that deal.  Heck, one of the first posts I ever made here was praising the extension.  Hall was one of my favorite Brewers, and his departure also means the end to my favorite Brewers cheer of all time: Eight Letters! Four Ls!

Castro

This move bugs me as much as anything else that happened today.  Bill Castro, an organizational soldier for the last 18 years, is fired before even completing his first season as pitching coach?  That’s deflecting blame and making Castro the scapegoat for the terrible pitching this year.  Is Castro the one who assembled a rotation featuring the Terrible Twosome of Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper?  Did Castro injure Dave Bush?  Castro was only able to work with what he was given, and what he was given this season was crap.  Castro was as responsible for the successes of pitchers over the years as any pitching coach the Brewers have had during the course of his 17 years as bullpen coach.  I understand that there’s no evidence that Castro has done a good job, but 17 years as a respected bullpen coach should earn him the chance to coach next year’s pitching staff with (hopefully) an upgrade in talent.

Again, this reminds me of the Yost firing from last year, minus the justification.  This seems more like a Mark Attanasio move than a Doug Melvin move.

These are some dark times in the Brewers organization.  Ken Macha is likely to be reevaluated after the season, and I’ve been disappointed with him continually since the end of May.  Abusing Gallardo and mismanaging Gamel are inexcusable.  I like Doug Melvin, but he deserves some blame for this season as well.  Most GMs aren’t allowed to hire a third manager.  I hope not, but I can’t help but wonder if this is the beginning of the end for the Mustachioed Marvel.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009, What in tarnation?!@

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Are they done?

Posted on August 11, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

As the Brewers struggle to break out of a prolonged slump (can you even call it a slump anymore?), it’s worth wondering if the Brewers even have a realistic shot at making the playoffs.

Statistically, of course they do.  They’re 6.5 back entering play tonight.  Teams have come back from larger deficits at this point of the season.  Whether the playoffs are more than a pipe dream at this point is another question, and for a number of reasons I’m ready to pull the plug on 2009.

The Brewers sit at a disappointing 55-56.  As sad as it sounds, they’re probably lucky to even have that record.  They’ve been outscored 549 to 519, which is good for a pythagorean record of 53-58 (.477 winning percentage).  To make the playoffs, a .477 team would need to play well over .500 the rest of the year–probably at least .600–and then hope the Cubs and Cardinals slow down.  Call me a pessimist if you want, but it’s not happening.

There’s no reason to expect that to happen.  The Brewers are 14th in the National League in runs allowed.  The starting pitching overall is terrible, and Dave Bush missing over two months hasn’t helped.  Incidentally, as I sit here typing I’m also watching Braden Looper labor through another disgusting start.  Has there been a more disappointing free agent than Looper?  He’s fallen wayyy short of any projection.  The amount of home runs he’s allowed is just insane.  I think I actually dislike watching him pitch more than Jeff Suppan, and that’s really saying something.

I expected the Brewers to add starting pitching, and by all accounts they expected to as well, but the team couldn’t even stay afloat before the trade deadline.  The horrible stretch took them out of position to make a deal.  Someone like David Weathers isn’t going to come close to putting a team over the hump.  Incidentally, Weathers is a decent reliever with an option for next year, so it wasn’t just a move for this year.  Still, nobody should feel too excited about adding David Weathers at this point.

Entering today, PECOTA has the Brewers at a 2.67% chance to make the playoffs.  To be honest, I’m even surprised it’s that “high,” but I suppose the mediocre division helps.  If you want to hold out hope on a 2.67% chance, more power to you.  I just know that I won’t be going out of my way to follow Cubs and Cardinals games.

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I like my women like I like my Coffey

Posted on August 5, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I’m sitting here watching the Brewers-Dodgers game, and Todd Coffey just came into the game in a big spot and retired Manny Ramirez.  On a whim, I was compelled to make a quick in-game post.  I have some definite crow to eat as far as Coffey is concerned.

I was irritated when Ken Macha began using him in high-leverage situations more and more, particularly when it was ahead of DiFelice.  I thought he was a decent bullpen arm, but nothing more.  He’s proven to be a strong setup guy.  DiFelice, despite some recent struggles, will always be my first (ROOGY, that is), but Coffey has also been death to right-handers as well.  Righties are OPSing .528 against him entering tonight’s game.

The starting rotation is a huge question mark, but the Brewers’s bullpen should be in good shape in the coming years with Coffey, DiFelice and Stetter under control long-term.

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July in review: It sucked.

Posted on August 1, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Entering July, the Brewers were 42-35 and had a two game lead in the NL Central.  Hard to believe that was just a month ago.  A 9-17 month has dropped the Crew to fourth place, prevented them from trading for an impact starting pitcher and dropped their playoff odds to 2.4%.  It’s not often that a team’s season goes down the toilet in just one month, but the Brewers managed to pull it off beautifully.

To find the reason for their struggles, there’s no need to look beyond starting pitching.  The Brewers have allowed the third most runs per game in the National League.  Their starters are averaging 5.6 innings per game started, the second worst mark in the NL.  That has unsurprisingly taken a toll on a bullpen that was a team strength, but has worn down due to overuse.  Things aren’t going to go well when you have one above average starting pitcher on your team.  Let’s look at this brutal rotation.

Yovani Gallardo

Good, but not great.  His strikeout totals are great, but he’s fifth-worst in the league in walks per nine innings with 4.3.  The walks have prevented him from being efficient and pitching deep into games consistently.  It has not, however, prevented the Brewers from riding him like a rented mule.  Gallardo leads the NL in pitches thrown per start with 108.  That is mind-boggling.  No, it’s actually infuriating.  More than anything, even more than the awful July that took the Brewers out of the playoff race, the way Gallardo has been abused has me furious.  THE GUY THREW 24 INNINGS LAST YEAR!  He’s 23 years old!  Am I missing something that Ken Macha isn’t?  This is completely unacceptable.

Manny Parra

Not good.  Manny has had some good starts, but most have been the of the nibbling-then-grooving-strikes variety.  He can be maddening to watch.  I’m able to defend him a bit; he has had terrible luck.  His ERA is an ugly 6.5, but his BABIP is .368 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.59.  In other words, he hasn’t been terrible, just below average.  His walk rate continues to be terrible, though.

Dave Bush

Incomplete.  Bush’s injury has doomed the Brewers, because it allowed for the Mike Burns era to occur.  Bush was the most known commodity in the Brewers’ rotation.  You knew you’d be getting an unspectacular yet solid starter who, until this year, would be able to pitch all season.

Braden Looper/Jeff Suppan

Awful.  Simply horrendous.  I lumped these two together because each one doesn’t even deserve his own paragraph.  If you want a good laugh (cry?), head over to fangraphs.com.  Sort by league leaders, choose National League and sort by worst FIP.  Alright, I’m sure you aren’t feeling that ambitious, so I’ll do you a favor and tell you what you’d find: Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan are number 1 and 2 on that list.  That’s right ladies and gents!  Out of all qualified starting pitchers in the National League, the Brewers have not one, but the two very worst pitchers in the league!  That’s actually incredibly impressive.  I wonder if that’s even happened before?

This terrible month has also eliminated them from being buyers at the trade deadline.  It made no sense to give up any prospects for rental players with the team hovering at .500.  The problem is, selling wasn’t a great option either.  The rental players they had to sell include Trevor Hoffman, Mike Cameron, Craig Counsell and Felipe Lopez.  There’s a strong possibility that the Brewers will attempt to bring back at least three of those players for next season, because they want to win next year.  It’s tough to be a true seller when your aim is to compete the very next season.  Also, many have mentioned J.J. Hardy in trade rumors, but I didn’t list him among the candidates to trade because I’m just not ready to hand over the everyday shortstop job to Alcides Escobar.  Escobar is hitting .302/.352/.413 in AAA.  Not horrible, but far from beating down the door to the majors.  So basically, the Brewers were forced to stand pat.

(And yes, I count the Claudio Vargas deal as standing pat.  They didn’t give up anything of value, so it’s low-risk, but I can’t stand watching the Human Rain Delay pitch).

It hurts to say it, but we have to be realistic.  The Brewers are done for 2009.  There’s no way they can compete with three terrible starting pitchers (Suppan, Looper and Burns) in the rotation.  It’s a damn shame, too.  They’re wasting career years from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.

Prince is actually having an MVP season.  He leads in probably the number one stathead category, WPA (Win Probability Added).  From fangraphs: WPA takes into account the importance of each situation in the game. A walk off home run is going to be weighted more then a home run in a game that has already gotten out of hand. This makes it a great tool for determining how valuable a player was to his team’s win total.

In other words, a strong argument could be made that Fielder has been the MVP.  If nothing else, he’s the runaway number 2 candidate to Pujols.  Either way, they’re wasting an outstanding year with their crap pitching.

It’s sad that we’re already forced to look ahead to the 2010 season.  This team is likely going to look a LOT different next year, as it should.  In the meantime, here’s to another two months of watching the Looper Grimace.

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