Posted by Steve
As the Brewers struggle to break out of a prolonged slump (can you even call it a slump anymore?), it’s worth wondering if the Brewers even have a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
Statistically, of course they do. They’re 6.5 back entering play tonight. Teams have come back from larger deficits at this point of the season. Whether the playoffs are more than a pipe dream at this point is another question, and for a number of reasons I’m ready to pull the plug on 2009.
The Brewers sit at a disappointing 55-56. As sad as it sounds, they’re probably lucky to even have that record. They’ve been outscored 549 to 519, which is good for a pythagorean record of 53-58 (.477 winning percentage). To make the playoffs, a .477 team would need to play well over .500 the rest of the year–probably at least .600–and then hope the Cubs and Cardinals slow down. Call me a pessimist if you want, but it’s not happening.
There’s no reason to expect that to happen. The Brewers are 14th in the National League in runs allowed. The starting pitching overall is terrible, and Dave Bush missing over two months hasn’t helped. Incidentally, as I sit here typing I’m also watching Braden Looper labor through another disgusting start. Has there been a more disappointing free agent than Looper? He’s fallen wayyy short of any projection. The amount of home runs he’s allowed is just insane. I think I actually dislike watching him pitch more than Jeff Suppan, and that’s really saying something.
I expected the Brewers to add starting pitching, and by all accounts they expected to as well, but the team couldn’t even stay afloat before the trade deadline. The horrible stretch took them out of position to make a deal. Someone like David Weathers isn’t going to come close to putting a team over the hump. Incidentally, Weathers is a decent reliever with an option for next year, so it wasn’t just a move for this year. Still, nobody should feel too excited about adding David Weathers at this point.
Entering today, PECOTA has the Brewers at a 2.67% chance to make the playoffs. To be honest, I’m even surprised it’s that “high,” but I suppose the mediocre division helps. If you want to hold out hope on a 2.67% chance, more power to you. I just know that I won’t be going out of my way to follow Cubs and Cardinals games.