Posted by Steve
I can only discuss one thing for so long before people probably get tired of hearing about it. Lately, it’s been Macha’s refusal to play the Brewers’ young players on an even semi-regular basis. This doesn’t look like it will be changing soon– Gamel has one (!) plate appearance since being called up, and Craig Freaking Counsell started at shortstop last night–so I might as well just move on to something else.
It’s clear that the Brewers have a lot of work ahead of them if they plan to acquire enough pitching to compete again next season. What’s not clear is where that pitching might come from. Free agency can be a band-aid, but the Brewers need to revamp their starting rotation. To do that, they’ll need to make trades. There are many trade candidates, but one that hasn’t been widely discussed is Prince Fielder. This is something I probably wouldn’t have gone over until the off-season, but in light of Keith Law’s blog entry the other day, we might as well do it now.
The blog is an ESPN Insider feature, so you won’t be able to read it without a subscription, but here’s a quick synopsis: Law claims the Brewers have reached a crossroad and need to decide whether to blow things up and rebuild or attempt to make another run at the playoffs. His choice is rebuilding. He believes the Brewers should trade Prince Fielder, whose value is at its peak. His reasoning, surprise, surprise, is the poor rotation. He doesn’t believe they’ll be able to put together a contending rotation by next season. He admits that trading Fielder would be a tough sell to the fans, and that admitting that one playoff appearance was all the Brewers were able to achieve with this core of players we’ve been hearing about for the last five-plus years. He still feels this is in the best interest of the team’s future, and he makes a pretty solid argument.
Thing is, while I agree it is a viable option, I’m not crazy about moving Prince Fielder this off-season. I’m not convinced the Brewers need to rebuild, and there’s no reason to move that process along while they still have two years of Fielder left. While it would be good to trade a player at peak value (they would get a ton for him), Fielder is the type of player you build around while you have him. They may not have another hitter of his caliber come through their system in the next five or ten years.
If they were looking to rebuild, trading Fielder would be the right move. I just don’t think the Brewers need to rebuild. They have the trio of Braun, Fielder and Gallardo for the next three years. That’s a trio that should be built around, not blown up.
Finally, blowing it up now will be a tough sell to fans who have packed Miller Park the last few seasons. The Brewers are ninth in MLB in attendance this year, and were ninth last year as well. That’s pretty incredible considering Milwaukee is one of the smallest MLB markets. That revenue has helped the Brewers increase payroll, which in turn helps the team compete.
Trading Fielder would be a good move in a different situation (i.e. Richie Sexson earlier in the decade). Getting pitching will be an extremely tough task, but it’s not impossible.
I really thought Fielder was only signed through ’10…?
He’s under contract through 2011. You’re probably thinking of the deal he signed before this season. He signed a two-year deal that prevented arbitration hearings in 2009 and 2010, but then he’s still eligible for arbitration in 2011.
Steve is, as usual, right on the money. I know because for a while I had thought the same thing, Glenn.
On the radio today, the big topic of discussion was whether or not the Crew should trade Fielder to the Giants for Matt Cain in the offseason. I think that would be a pretty horrible trade. Cain is rocking a .259 BABIP, 84.1% strand rate, and 4.04 FIP which means this year is a FUH-FUH-FLUKE.
Not that he’s a bad pitcher, but I think the odds of him repeating this season is “nil.”
Fielder for Cain would indeed be an awful deal. Fielder at the very least needs to get a return similar to the Bedard/Teixeira/Bartolo Colon deals. Multiple impact young players.
Cain is a good pitcher, but not as good as his ERA indicates, as you pointed out.
Cain may not be as good as his ERA indicates, but all the strides he has taken this season shows he can be that pitcher.
While his K’s are down, his K/BB is up to the highest it has ever been, suggesting he has finally gained command of his stuff. His stuff is absolutely filthy. Last season, he had an uncharacteristically low ground ball %. This year it is back to the norms, suggesting he is pitching lower in the strike zone consistently.
Stats can say many things.
I may see things differently, I think Fielder for Cain would be an awful deal… for the Giants. Nothing has more value then young pitching. To deal it for an extremely talented hitter, but one who plays a far from premium position who does not have a body type that suggests aging well, will look good for likely a year or two.
Honestly, I think if the Brewers opt to deal him, they will find a fairly bad market for his services. The teams in need of a 1B that can likely take it and pay him after arbitration or take it for a run at a pennant includes:
Baltimore: Brandon Snyder likely warrants a shot before they consider trading a prospect such as Arrieta and Erbe in a deal.
Atlanta: Could be a darkhorse. Javy Vazquez and a minor pitching prospect (Edgar Osuna since Melvin loves pitchability? Or if they don’t want to deal Vazquez, maybe an offer of quantity, such as James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes, Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen? 3 major league ready arms and an extremely high upside arm in Teheran, who doesn’t quite know how to use it yet.
Dodgers: Loney, Elbert and McDonald?
Giants: Unless dealing Cain or Lincecum, they don’t have the pieces anymore, especially after the Villalona deal.
I count 4 teams, the Braves being the most likely, in my mind, to want to pursue him. I feel the Brewers are best served keeping him and waiting patiently for some of their prospects to make it.
I think Cain or Fielder have become the type of player that you wouldn’t want to trade for just one player; you’re going to want to get a package of young talent for. You’re right that there aren’t too many teams who could fit Fielder’s salary.
I’d add Boston and the White Sox as teams who might be interested. Ortiz seems to be done, and Dye and Thome will be gone from Chicago.
Still, I don’t expect Fielder to go this off-season.
Personally disagree on Boston. With Ortiz gone, everything else slots perfectly:
1B: Martinez
3B: Youkilis
DH: Lowell
C: Varitek/Wagner/Kottaras
Maybe they would make a move during the year, but don’t see it in the coming off-season.
In regards to the White Sox, they appear to be trending towards a youth movement and really don’t have a ton of pitching to deal (everything was dealt in Peavy trade) so I find it hard to see a match.
Agree 100% that I don’t expect Fielder to be moved either.