Monthly Archives: October 2009

Washburn?

Posted on October 30, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Multiple sources have indicated the Brewers will have interest in signing Jarrod Washburn.  The fact that he is from Wisconsin makes it a plausible match, apparently.  This doesn’t excite me at all.

Washburn was decent enough last year, though not as good as his 3.78 ERA suggests.  Granted, it was the best year he’s had in five years, but that’s not exactly saying very much.  He’s been a number 4-5 type starter, and that’s what he’d be with the Brewers.

Washburn is better than Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper, and possibly better than Manny Parra and Dave Bush, but is that really where the Brewers are setting their sites?  Personally I still like Dave Bush more than Washburn, and I’ll still take whatever’s left of Parra’s upside, though I admit both of those statements are debatable.

Washburn’s ERA was 3.78 last year, but that doesn’t tell the true story.  His k/bb was 2.04, which is solid-average but nothing more.  His highest mark in the four years previous was 1.87.  His batting average on balls in play was .257–well below league average and by far the lowest mark of his career.  That indicates he had good luck.  His FIP of 4.58 is more indicative of his true performance.  Sure, you could expect a few ticks off that in a switch to the NL, but hoping for anything better than an FIP of 4.3 is probably unrealistic.

If the Brewers can get him on a one year deal similar to the one they gave Braden Looper for 2009, fine.  It will probably take more money or more years than that, in which case I’m not interested.  The Brewers can trade for A) A pitcher of similar effectiveness who will cost much less, or B) A pitcher of similar salary who will pitch better.

If the best pitcher the Brewers add this off-season is Jarrod Washburn, they won’t be going anywhere next year anyway.  They need to find a way to get quality starting pitching.  It certainly won’t be easy.

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Gas on the fire

Posted on October 21, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I just wanted to pass along this pretty timely article from the Wall Street Journal written by Jonah Keri.  I’m encouraged that this idea is really starting to catch steam.  It will probably take a few years, but I really expect to see the roles of umpires diminished–and that’s a good thing.

Not much else, really.  The Brewers hired a new pitching coach, Rick Peterson.  I’m sure what will happen is the three pitchers in the Brewers rotation who had the worst years of their careers will regress to the mean and improve somewhat, which will lead to a bevy of articles praising the genius of the new coach.

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Return of the Sha-wuuhhh?

Posted on October 15, 2009 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

My dad pulled off an incredibly cruel prank on me today.  Here’s how the phone conversation went:

D: So, did you hear the news about Ned Yost?

S: Did Houston actually hire him!?

D: Yep!

S: Oh my God!  That’s fantastic!  I don’t believe it!

D: A five-year contract!

S: WHAT!?!? (about ready to pass out)

D:  Nah, I’m just kiddin’.  He did have his interview today, though.

Boy, that will sure let the wind out of your sails.  Still, the fact that he’s actually being considered has me in a great mood.  Can you imagine having Ned Yost in the Brewers’ division?  I need to stop thinking about this to avoid getting my hopes up.

——–

If you watch any of the playoff games on TBS, pay attention to the strike zone they’ve been showing.  I guarantee there will be a minimum of ten missed ball/strike calls that were more than three inches off–in other words, not even borderline calls.  More likely, it will be 15-20 or more in a game.  In this technological age, how can this still be considered acceptable?  These people are the very best umpires in the world, and their ineptitude is front and center for the world to see.  When Phil Cuzzi can’t tell a fair ball from a foul one while standing 15 feet away, isn’t that proof that an improvement is needed?

The two main arguments against replay, or even an electronic strike zone, hold no water with me.

Adding replay would take more time and add to the length of the game.  Dan told me the other day that he watched someone argue this on ESPN as highlights of Jim Leyland arguing a call played in the background.  Hilarious.  Managers coming out to argue doesn’t slow down the game?  There’s a decent chance that adding this could actually cut down on game time when you consider that we wouldn’t need to watch mangers arguing for minutes at a time.  Put an official in the press box who’s assigned to replays and can immediately look at them, and it wouldn’t even be as much of an ordeal as home run calls currently are.

Umpires and human error are part of the game. Really?  Part of the game?  Ask any team who gets screwed by a bad call if they think it should be part of the game.  It’s been part of the game because, until recently, it was the best option available.  Now, an option exists that is more efficient than human umpires, but baseball refuses to use it.  As usual, the sport is behind the times.  Football has had an effective replay system for years, and it’s definitely improved the game.  Basketball uses instant replay.  Even tennis has a challenge replay system.  Yet here sit the old timers in control of baseball, resisting any sort of change from “back in the day.”

Are we really saying that having umpires and the element of human error is more important than getting calls right?  Because I’ll never be convinced of that.

——–

The Brewers writers at the Journal-Sentinel once again did their “player grades” at the end of the season, and once again I take exception to many of them.  Here are the ones I disagree with the most.

Jacon Kendall: C

C?  As in average?  Because Jason Kendall wasn’t even close to average, particularly on offense.  Comically, the writers admit that Kendall’s effectiveness at throwing out runners dropped dramatically, and that he has no power.  Yet his grade is held up by things that are completely intangible, such as his “toughness, leadership, the way he calls games and the way he handles himself behind the plate.”  Commence nausea.  I can’t believe how much people are willing to put up with a crappy player because of this garbage.

Braden Looper: C+

Oh goodness.  That’s above average.  Looper was decidedly below average.  He was actually bad.  His FIP was the worst in the Majors among qualified starters.  His strikeout rate was poor, and his home run rate was abysmal–also worst in the Majors (by far).  Literally the only good thing you can say about Braden Looper is that he stayed healthy all year.  Yet, even though they site his insane run support average of 8.97 runs per game, they still give him some credit for garnering 14 wins.

Rickie Weeks earns an INCOMPLETE, which I guess I understand, but then how can they give Alcides Escobar a B+?  Escobar had 134 plate appearances this year, while Weeks had 162.  Weeks was obviously far more productive… So how can Escobar receive a grade when Weeks did not?  What did Escobar do to deserve a B+?  Hit for a .701 OPS?  Weeks’ .857 OPS wasn’t worth grading, though.  Naturally.

Better yet, they concluded that Mat Gamel’s 148 plate appearances of .760 OPS was worth a C-.  Escobar got to play regularly, while Gamel would go days at a time without an appearance.  How does this add up?

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Trevor Time and Macha… Malaise?

Posted on October 5, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

News!  One day after the season, and we already have 2010 news to talk about.

First things first.  The Crew put a nice cap on a disappointing season by sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis.  If that in any way has a negative effect on St. Louis as they head into the playoffs, I’m all for it.  In fact, I will say right now that if the Cardinals do not win the World Series, it will be because they ended the season on a low note–thanks to the Brewers.

An 80-82 record for 2009 stinks, but since I’ve been all about 2010 for the last two months, we can easily make it a good thing!  That record is in the bottom 15 of MLB teams, which means the Brewers can sign a Type A free agent and still keep their first round pick.  I don’t necessarily expect them to do so, but at least it’s an option.

Slipping through the cracks on this crazy Monday afternoon (apparently there’s some football game tonight?) may be the news that Trevor Hoffman has quickly re-signed with the Brewers for next season.  The deal is for $8 million, and Buster Olney reports that there is a mutual option for 2011.

Spending $8 million on someone who will soon be 42 years old is generally a good way to build a bad team, but Hoffman is definitely an exception.  Hoffman was fantastic this season: 1.83 ERA, 0.907 WHIP, 3.43 strikeout to walk ratio.  At worst, he was one of the top 20 relief pitchers in the majors.

Hoffman is getting a raise from the $6 mil he made in 2009, and $8 mil for a closer is about the most I’m comfortable with.  He has a great track record, though, and has showed no sign of slowing down.  The Brewers have every reason to expect him to be a good closer again next season.

The other move I’d like to see get done quickly is the re-signing of Mike Cameron for another year.  Cameron made a comment a few weeks ago along the lines of being “willing to make sacrifices” to come back next season.  That certainly seems to mean a pay cut, or at least no pay raise.

There’s a sentiment that bringing back Hoffman and Cameron eats up money that should be spent on starting pitching, but I don’t agree with it.  These are productive players who are worth their salary.  There are other ways to trim the fat off the payroll and free up space to acquire pitching.  The Brewers should make the following moves:

  • Non-tender Seth McClung.  He was awful this year and will be set to make a couple million bucks next season.  No need to spend that on his 1.03 k/bb ratio.
  • Decline Braden Looper’s $6 million option.  Looper was bad this year–below replacement level, in fact.  His “production” should be replaced and improved upon by a newcomer.
  • Do not, I repeat, DO NOT RE-SIGN JASON KENDALL.  He was quite possibly the worst everyday player in baseball.  Seeing his $4.25 million salary come off the books is a beautiful sight to behold.  I’d much rather let Jonathan Lucroy, Angel Salome and Mike Rivera battle it out and split time.  It probably still won’t be very productive, but it can’t be any worse than what they had this season–and it will be cheap.  Plus, the Brewers are likely to have one black hole in their everyday lineup next year (Escobar), so they can’t afford to play both Escobar and Kendall.
  • Decline David Weathers’ $3.7 million option.  Weathers is no longer good.  His overall numbers this season are poor.  There’s no reason not to give some youngers guys a shot next year.  Someone like John Axford is likely to put up at least the 1.5-ish whip that Weathers brings, only he’ll do it for the league minimum.  I will miss his new nickname used in the BIS office, though:  Jeff Karstens’ dad.

I’m also pretty much resigned to the fact that the Brewers will probably be trading J.J. Hardy, which means at least $4.5 million more off the books (before the salaries of the player(s) they receive in return).

That’s roughly $20 million right there that can be trimmed without losing very much production.  I’d much rather save money there than save it by letting actual productive players (Hoffman and Cameron) walk.

Finally, we’re on to Ken Macha.  He is being brought back next season, and I can’t say I’m surprised.  Doug Melvin was not the driving force behind the firing of Ned Yost, and it’s not surprising that he wouldn’t want to fire a manager that he hand-picked one year ago.

I’m not crazy about the move, but I guess it’s not the worst thing in the world.  He’s certainly not as bad as Ned Yost.  What’s funny is Macha and Yost seem to be polar opposites in a lot of ways.  For the first two months of the season, I thought Macha did an outstanding job with bullpen management.  Meanwhile, “Ned Yost” and “outstanding bullpen management” have never been used in the same sentence until this one was created.

Yost’s strength was with a young team with no pressure to win.  He wasn’t bad when Fielder, Hart, Hardy, Weeks, etc. were all breaking into the big leagues and nobody expected the Brewers to win games.  He was protective of his players to the point of absurdity.  But when the team’s talent grew, Yost was in way over his head.

On the other hand, Macha has only managed winning teams until this season.  He isn’t afraid to criticize a player in the media, which is fine.  He never did anything over the top, and to be honest it was refreshing after listening to Yost say “Soup pitched great!” so many times in 2008.  Because he’s only had winning teams, I didn’t realize that he apparently hates playing young players.  His mishandling of Mat Gamel all season is embarrassing and completely inexcusable.  He abused Yovani Gallardo.  He wasn’t even crazy about playing Alcides Escobar full time when J.J. Hardy was in AAA.  He said Josh Butler would get a start.  Not only did he not give Butler a start; but Butler was sent home before the season even ended with only four major league innings under his belt.  That Craig Counsell continued to get starts in September was also an embarrassment.  Counsell had a good season, but you know what you have in him.  September is the time for non-contenders to get a better look at their young players, and Macha just refused to do that.

Here’s hoping the Brewers field a more talented team next year, because I’m guessing (okay, hoping) that Macha is more equipped for that type of team.

Say, this was fun.  I really enjoyed getting to use the Sha-wuuhhh?? tag again for nostalgia’s sake.

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Defense wins games?

Posted on October 2, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

As recently as five years ago, defense in baseball was not examined half as much as it is now.  Moneyball had recently hit the shelves, and on-base percentage was all the rage.  As you recall, the book described how the A’s willingly sacrificed defensive prowess if a player got on base at a high clip.  It worked for them because many teams had not yet realized the importance of on-base percentage, and they could afford to field a team with a great OBP.  That isn’t the case anymore, and guys with good OBPs no longer come cheap.

A common misconception about Moneyball is that it’s all about slow guys who take walks and hit homers.  That isn’t the case–and that should be obvious if you simply look at the makeup of A’s teams of the last couple seasons.  What Moneyball is really about is determining what skillset is undervalued on the market and spending your limited resources to acquire that skillset cheaply.  When Moneyball was written, that skillset was on-base percentage.  Over the last few years, that has shifted to defense–particularly defensive range.

A great case study for evidence is the new club of our savior and former scouting director, Jack Zduriencik.  Seattle went from being a terrible team to having a winning record in one season, despite slashing $6 million from its payroll.  How did they do it?  Well, Jack Z went out and got himself some guys who can flash the leather.

They let slugger but defensively challenged Raul Ibanez walk in free agency (but offered arbitration and got comp picks).  They added Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, two great defensive outfielders, in trades.  They traded for Jack Wilson, likely the best defensive shortstop in the game, at the trade deadline.  They gave substantial playing time to catcher Rob Johnson, a poor hitter but defensive standout.

Last year the Mariners allowed 811 runs.  This year, with just a few games to go, they have allowed 679 runs.  A gigantic difference, and their starting rotation was largely unchaged.  Most of it is due to improved team defense.

It’s not just Seattle.  This is evident all across the league.  The Angels play Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick up the middle despite their light hitting because they’re good defenders.  Texas moved Michael Young off shortstop and played Elvis Andrus at there all year despite his underdeveloped bat because he’s an elite defender. The Brewers presumably are seriously considering doing the same thing with Alcides Escobar next year.  Even one of B.B.K.T.U.T.H.’s favorite whipping boys, Tony Gwynn Jr., has had positive value due to his defense in center field for the Padres.

Baseball Info Solutions is a leader in defensive analysis.  Their information is used by fangraphs to calculate Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).  Aside from publishing The Fielding Bible, BIS puts out The Bill James Handbook each year.  We were asked to vote for the ten best defenders at each position for the handbook, and I turned mine in yesterday.  Having spent all year watching all the teams, we already had a general idea of who was good.  I also put a significant amount of stock into the information we spent all season gathering–we charted hit locations, which helped determine range, and we awarded Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays to players for every game played by every team this season.

Rather than revealing my entire ballot (why not get the book and see what the seasoned experts had to say?),  I will list a few nuggets.

-The winner of the “Player Steve Likes to Watch More Than Anyone” award goes to Franklin Gutierrez.  He is superb.  I look forward to watching Mariners games because I love watching that guy play defense.  He gets great jumps, takes great routes and has good speed.  Some of the balls he gets to you’d think had no chance of being caught off the bat.

-Other truly outstanding defenders: Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, Jack Wilson, Carl Crawford, Chase Utley.

-Guys who graded out very well who may not yet have the rep as great defenders: Ryan Sweeney, Nyjer Morgan, Brendan Ryan (absolute cannon for an arm), Paul Janish, Kendry Morales, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz.

-Brewers’ best defenders of 2009: Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy, Felipe Lopez.

-Brewer’ worst defenders of 2009: Ryan Braun, Corey Hart.

Ryan Braun is straight up baaaad in left field.  As in one of the three or four worst left fielders in baseball.  What’s interesting is that he has one of the highest good fielding play totals, which goes to show that the eye can be deceiving.  We see Braun make diving and sliding catches and assume he’s good defensively.  In truth, fielders who get better jumps and take better routes get to many of those balls on the run and don’t have to dive or slide, hence no GFP.  I found it interesting to see that many of the outfielders with high GFP totals graded out poorly in range, which backs up this premise.

It will be very interesting to see what the next wave of undervalued skillset in baseball will be.  Just as on-base percentage caught on in a big way, defensive ability is no longer going unnoticed.

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