Monthly Archives: November 2009

Let’s sign Carl Pavano

Posted on November 25, 2009 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

When discussing potential targets for the Brewers’ rotation, I’ve overlooked what is probably the best match:  Carl Pavano.  I knew Pavano had something of a bounceback season (that fact that he pitched all year after his injury history is an accomplishment in and of itself), but I for some reason never looked at his numbers.

Here they are.

199.1 innings, 5.10 ERA, 235 hits, 147 strikeouts, 39 walks.

Alright, so those stats may not jump out at you.  A closer look, however, reveals that Pavano was actually a very good starting pitcher last season.

235 hits is not a pretty number.  But remember, hits are not one of the three true outcomes that are not affected by defense.  One look at his batting average on balls in play indicates that his defense/Lady Luck did him no favors in 2009.  His BABIP was .335, well above his career norm.

And then there’s my favorite stat, k/bb.  Pavano very quietly posted a 3.77 ratio last season!  I was shocked to see this.  That was 13th in the majors among starting pitchers!

Add that with his decent home run rate of 1.17, and you come up with an FIP of 4.0 in the American League–a very impressive number.

If Pavano performed similarly for the Brewers next season, he’d probably challenge Yovani Gallardo as the best starter on the team (believe it or not, Pavano was actually the more valuable pitcher last season).  A move to the National League would only help him.  Like he did with me, Pavano is flying a bit under the radar.  John Lackey is the big prize, and then more attention seems to be on people like Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and even Doug Davis or Jon Garland.

Pavano would be a smart signing for the Brewers at likely an affordable price.  I’d expect something along the lines of two years, $10-14 million to get it done.  If you’re a fan of Fangraphs’ dollar value, Pavano was worth $16.5 mil last year alone.

Signing Pavano and trading prospects for a similar pitcher would go a long way to repairing the Brewers’ pitching staff, and it’s a safer alternative to throwing big bucks and a lot of years at John Lackey.

→ 4 Comments

Posted in 2010 Hot Stove

Tagged

2009 Zack Greinke vs. 2004 Ben Sheets

Posted on November 19, 2009 by | 7 Comments

Posted by Steve

Sure, I’m about to beat a dead horse.  But it’s my blog (and Dan’s?), so I’m allowed.

I was very pleased to see the voters actually get one right and award Zack Greinke with the AL Cy Young yesterday.  Greinke was the best pitcher in baseball this season and definitely deserved the award.  Of course, the only reason there was any doubt was because of Greinke’s lack of wins–16.  That people still let an utterly meaningless “stat” such as win-loss record influence their evaluation is an embarrassment.  Fortunately, it did not affect the outcome in this case, but it still has in many cases.  None more glaring than… (Dah, dah dah daaaaah) The 2004 season of Ben Sheets! Cue the groaning, people heading for exits.

Let’s compare the two seasons.  You may be surprised by what we find (or if you know me at all, I guess you probably won’t)

Greinke 2009

229.1 Innings, 2.16 ERA, 242 strikeouts, 51 walks, 11 home runs

Sheets 2004

237.0 Innings, 2.70 ERA, 264 strikeouts, 32 walks, 25 home runs

Those are the only numbers I listed because other stats incorporate all these in some way.  ERA is extremely subjective and dependent on things like defense and scoring.  Strikeouts, walks, and home runs are the only things completely controlled by the pitcher (hence the title of Three True Outcomes).

To have the most value, you need to throw a lot of innings.  As you can see, both Greinke and Sheets were workhorses in these seasons.  The rest of the numbers are debatable as to who was more valuable.

The most glaring difference is home run totals.  As a fly ball pitcher, Sheets has always been plagued by the long ball.  25 is not a very good number.  On the other hand, 11 home runs in 229 innings by Greinke is insane.

Then you get to k/bb ratios, which is my favorite stat to look at for pitchers.  I consider a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio to be very good, and it’s the marker I’m looking for if I for some reason needed to identify ace-caliber pitchers on a moment’s notice.  Greinke’s ratio of 4.75 is excellent.

Then we get to Sheets.  He had both a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than Greinke’s 2009.  It’s good for an 8.25 k/bb mark, which is just otherworldly.  I went over the significance of that ratio in my Ode to Ben Sheets last year, so I won’t recite all that again except to say that it’s historic.  Incidentally, he put up a ratio of 10.55 in 2006, but that was over 106 innings.

So which was better?  For my personal affinity towards k/bb, I’d take Sheets’ season over Greinke’s.  It’s certainly debatable and there probably isn’t a wrong answer.  That’s not the point of this post.  All I’m trying to say is they are certainly comparable seasons in terms of value.

So what’s my point?  My point is that Greinke (rightfully) won the Cy Young in 2009.  Where did Sheets finish in 2004?  First?  Second?  Nope.  Would you believe a tie for eighth?  Because that’s what it was.

Is there any logical explanation for this?  Of course not; we’re discussing MLB Awards voters here.  The illogical, asinine, mind-numbingly stupid explanation is that Sheets’ record in 2004 was 12-14.  That he could have a losing record with that incredible stat line speaks volumes to how awful the rest of the team was, but that’s beside the point.

Roger Clemens won the Cy Young in 2004.  He had a very good season, but all the peripherals outside of home runs were vastly inferior to Sheets’.  The “edge” Clemens had over Sheets was his record; Clemens was 18-4 that year.  In truth, there was another candidate more deserving than Clemens aside from Sheets.  Randy Johnson had an insane year (290 strikeouts) but finished second in the voting due to a 16-14 record.

This still bothers me today, as if you couldn’t tell.  Sheets’ 2004 is better than most Cy Young seasons.  The majority of baseball fans have no idea Sheets ever had such a dominating season.  Many don’t realize he was a workhorse ace for many years.  In fact, many fans look at Sheets’ overall tenure with the Brewers in a negative light!  Sure he’s had more than his fair share of injuries, but those were all after 2005.  People don’t realize how good he was.  And it’s all because he was stuck on crappy teams and couldn’t get wins.

Every time I hear win totals used as the prominent qualification for the Hall of Fame, or hear Joe Morgan say the first thing he looks at in Cy Young voting is Win-Loss record, or hear a pitcher criticized for not getting more wins, a small part of me dies inside.  Performance should not be judged by a completely meaningless stat.  It will never happen, but I’d love to see the Win-Loss stat removed from the scorebook.

And take saves, batting average and RBIs with it.

→ 7 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Tagged , , ,

Odds and ends

Posted on November 17, 2009 by | 6 Comments

Posted by Steve

For the most part, the off-season has begun the way I was hoping.  The Brewers declined David Weathers’ option (admittedly, this should have been a no-brainer).  Then on Friday they announced they were also declining to pick up the $6 million option for Braden Looper.

What a relief.  The only positive thing you can say about Looper’s time with the Brewers was that he stayed healthy all season.  He was most definitely part of the problem with the pitching staff.  The production he provided for one fifth of the starting rotation must be improved upon next season.  He likely isn’t as bad as he performed in 2009 (he was easily one of the five worst starters in baseball and had never been that bad before), but even if he’s slightly better next year, the Brewers will still get more bang for their buck if they spend that money elsewhere.  I’d be surprised if Looper stays in someone’s rotation next season.

————

Some interesting reports surfacing in the aftermath of the J.J. Hardy trade.  Tom Haudricourt has reported that both Boston and Pittsburgh made offers for Hardy.  From Boston, the Brewers asked for talented young pitchers Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard, and probably got rejected in about half a second.  TH reports the Red Sox offered prospect Michael Bowden.  Bowden is a decent prospect but nothing more.  He had a 3.11 ERA in 126.1 innings at AAA, but he had just a pedestrian strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.87.  That doesn’t bode well for the big leagues.  Bowden is not likely to be any better than any of the Brewers starters outside of maybe Jeff Suppan next season, and they don’t need another number 5 starter.

The reported Pittsburgh offers were a bit more interesting.  One offer was for closer Matt Capps.  Capps regressed terribly last season, as his home runs and walks allowed were way up.  The other offer was Ryan Doumit, which is at least a better offer than Capps.  Doumit has a career .780 OPS, which is a nice number for a catcher.  However, the Brewers seem to like the idea of giving Jonathan Lucroy a shot this year.  Furthermore, both Capps and Doumit are due for arbitration raises and will cost at least a few million more than Carlos Gomez.

Many weren’t pleased with the return for Hardy, but I’ve yet to hear a reported offer that I prefer to the one the Brewers took.

————

Not great news, as rotoworld/Buster Olney reports Craig Counsell is in high demand after his solid season in Milwaukee, and could actually garner a two-year deal.  If that happens, it’s likely that Counsell will not return to the Brewers.  That would be too bad; Counsell was a great utility player last season.  You have to wonder how good his career numbers may have been had he scrapped that goofy batting stance even earlier than last season.

————

Lastly, it’s been quite awhile, but we finally have a return of the Milwaukee Brewers to my dreams.  Surprisingly, this one actually did not involve Rickie Weeks.  Allow me to share.

I am at my annual family Christmas gathering, but for some reason, one of the guests is none other than Manny Parra.  Making it weirder is the fact his presence is completely normal to me.  I start chatting with him; he’s a friendly guy.

At one point a thought comes to me.  At work, Parra was one of the tougher pitchers to chart.  I always felt he threw a slider, but others were not totally convinced.  For guys like that, we were supposed to keep a look out for any interviews in which the pitcher discussed his repertoire.  It occurs to me that I have a golden opportunity–I can simply ask Manny what he throws!

“Hey, Manny, I actually have a question for you.  People have a tough time charting some of your pitches.  I have you as fastball, changeup, splitter, slider, curve.  Is that right?”

“No, man!  That’s not right at all!  All I throw is a fastball and a changeup.”

“Really?  But I’ve seen you throw multiple curveballs.  And I’ve heard you talk about your splitter!”

“I swear, just fastball and change.”

I woke up completely convinced that Parra only threw those two pitches.

→ 6 Comments

Posted in 2010 Hot Stove, Cornucopia of thoughts, Steve's Brewers/Baseball-related dreams

Tagged , , ,

November: An appropriate time for a cornucopia

Posted on November 9, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Quite a bit to talk about in the aftermath of the J.J. Hardy trade.  This off-season will really be all about starting pitching, so that’s what I’ll largely focus on here.

Before we get into that, though, the Brewers made the correct move in declining the $3.7 million option on David Weathers in 2010.  Weathers is no longer a solid reliever, and that money will be better spent elsewhere.  Now if they’d only do the same with Braden Looper’s option…

———-

In a blog entry published yesterday, Buster Olney ranked the Brewers number 1 on his list of teams “ready and willing to pay the price to land an ace.”  He dismissed Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez because he doesn’t believe they want to trade from an already depleted farm system to land a one-year rental.  Instead, he suggests the Brewers could aggressively pursue John Lackey.  He is right to say that the Brewers can afford him; they were willing to spend $100 million on CC Sabathia last season.

Problem is, Lackey’s good, but he’s no CC.  Career ERA of 3.81, 2.72 K/BB ratio.  If you’re into labeling, Lackey is probably more like a strong number two starter on an ideal playoff team from here on out.  He’d probably be as good as or possibly even better than Yovani Gallardo, which would be a huge upgrade to the pitching staff, but at what cost?  Lackey will be the premiere starting pitcher in free agency, which means he’ll almost surely get at least five years.  After the Jeff Suppan debacle, I’m not crazy about the Brewers giving any pitcher more than three years unless he’s a bona fide stud without a prior injury history(a la CC).  Lackey hasn’t been seriously injured, but he has missed time each of the last two seasons with elbow problems (never a good sign) and is 31.  Paying $15 or so million to a 36-year-old John Lackey is not in the Brewers’ best interests.

The Brewers will likely express interest, as they should, but I imagine they’ll ultimately decide to look elsewhere once the bidding war heats up.

———-

There are other options worth exploring in free agency.  Randy Wolf isn’t bad, but he’s probably in line for at least $8 million a year for three years.  Names like Doug Davis and Jon Garland do not interest me unless they somehow came cheap; the Brewers don’t need more number four starters making $6-10 million.  The type of players they should look at are talented ones that come with injury/durability issues, but will come at a discounted price for that reason.  Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer and even our old pal Ben Sheets fits into this category.  All three are number 1/2 starter caliber when healthy, but none of them are likely to receive more than a one or two year offer, with the possible exception of Harden.

———-

Another name connected with the Brewers is Mark Mulder.  Mulder pitched under newly hired pitching coach Rick Peterson during his best years in Oakland, and the speculation is that he’d like to reunite with Peterson for a comeback attempt.  Mulder would not be too expensive, but then again, he shouldn’t be counted on as a top-of-the-rotation guy anymore.

———-

At minimum, I’d expect the Brewers to sign one starter and trade for another.  There are two types of trades we might see–a blockbuster, in which multiple players are moved for a good young pitcher with multiple years left before free agency.  In this scenario, Mat Gamel is almost certain to be dealt, as he is one of the Brewers most valuable trading chips.  The other type of trade is trading a mid-level prospect or two for a solid, established veteran making much more than league minimum.  I’ll throw out Aaron Harang’s name as an example.  Cincinnati was rumored to be shopping him at the deadline, so I’m assuming he could be available again.  The Reds probably wouldn’t require much in a trade if the Brewers took all of Harang’s salary, which they have room for.

I’m very curious to see what the Brewers do this off-season.  Forming a formidable pitching staff for next season is an incredibly daunting task considering how bad it was in 2009.  We were treated with an early start to the off-season with the Hardy trade, but we’ll likely have to wait at least a few weeks before the ball really gets rolling.

→ 3 Comments

Posted in 2010 Hot Stove, Cornucopia of thoughts

Tagged ,

Is it really all that bad? Maybe?

Posted on November 6, 2009 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Brewer fans are already lighting up message boards with anger over the newly announced trade: J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez.  If you listen to them, Doug Melvin just mishandled the Brewers most valuable trade chip.

I suppose he may have, but I’m not convinced.  Since Hardy laid an egg this year, I’ve been saying it’s extremely difficult to gauge his trade value.  Of this I’m certain:  nobody was going to give up established starting pitching for him unless it was a bad contract.  Before last season, sure.  But Hardy really hurt the Brewers by slashing his trade value.

As far as Carlos Gomez is concerned…  Well, yeah I admit he was one of the players I mocked the most in baseball.  His offense in the majors to this point has been awful (.292 OBP).  And can’t stand how often he attempts to bunt.  But, just bear with me and consider the following:

  • Gomez is still only 23, and will be 24 this season.  His OBP in the minors was .339, so there’s reason enough to believe his offense could/should improve.
  • His defense in center field is even better than Mike Cameron’s.  He’s blazing fast and will cover a ton of ground in center.  I really like that the Brewers are putting an emphasis on defense.  I was afraid of a Corey Hart/Jody Gerut platoon in center, which would have been a big defensive downgrade from Mike Cameron.
  • This, of course, means the end of Mike Cameron’s run in Milwaukee.  That’s too bad; he is one of my favorite Brewers ever.  But, this means the Brewers save a ton of money.  Between Hardy and Cameron’s salaries, the Brewers have slashed $14.5 million off last year’s payroll.  I say last year only because it’s hard to say what A. Hardy would have received in arbitration or B. Cameron would have required to bring back.  Still, it’s a big chunk of change that can now be spent on pitching.  They could actually afford someone like John Lackey now (not necessarily saying they should, just saying they probably could).
  • I didn’t see Hardy as the Brewers biggest trade chip.  I think Mat Gamel has more trade value, and unfortunately I expect him to be traded.  If he goes, it will definitely be for pitching.
  • The Brewers could do what the Twins did with Gomez.  They often played Denard Span, a superior offensive player, in center field, but subbed in Gomez late in a game when they got a lead.  When the Twins were trailing late, they’d sub in Span for Gomez.  The Brewers could do this with Jody Gerut.
  • Female fans are sure to be devastated, but thankfully this trade is heartthrob for heartthrob.  Gomez was number two to only to All-World, Mr. Sideburns himself, Joe Mauer in Minnesota among the ladies.

So, there you have it.  Obviously you should decide for yourself whether to like this trade, but I am alright with it.  I will say that while I’m “alright with it” as a Brewer fan, I love it from a Twins perspective.  They can play Denard Span every day in center field, and they get what should be a big upgrade at shortstop.  The Twins haven’t had a good shortstop in years.  Of course, this is all dependent on Hardy bouncing back, but their only risk if he doesn’t is giving up a guy who played part time for them.

I’m not pleased to see Hardy go.  I still think he’s the better bet over Escobar to have a better year this season.  But, the Brewers aren’t trading Escobar, and they can’t afford the luxury of keeping two good players at one position when they have such huge pitching needs.

When it boils down to it, this trade was spare part for spare part.  Both players had fallen out of favor with their teams, and each is moving to a team that has a bigger need for him.

Finally, I’d just like to add that I seem to have cemented myself as “that Brewer fan that people know.”  How do I know this?  Because in the first hour after this trade hit the press, my phone lit up with text messages.  I heard from people I haven’t spoken to in weeks, even months in a couple cases.  ”Gomez for Hardy!”  ”What do you think of the trade?”  ”Gomez!?  Really!?” etc, etc.

→ 1 Comment

Posted in 2010 Hot Stove, Milwaukee Brewers 2010

Tagged , ,