Monthly Archives: April 2010

Hell’s Bells!

Posted by Dan

Does Steve ever post on this blog anymore? COME ON!

So everyone at work seems to wonder what I think of Trevor Hoffman, which made me think, “Hey, posting about Hoffman is more fun than school work! Hoffman it is!”

If you’ve tuned into a Brewer game lately you’ve probably seen him allow at least one home run. On the year, the numbers: 9 innings, 15 hits, 6 home runs, 3 BB, 5 K.  Good for an ERA of 13.00 and a WHIP 2.00.  Obviously everyone is quick to stick a fork in him and simply say that he’s done.  That could be the case, but I gotta think he finds a way to get guys out again.  His average fastball is right on track with last year (85.5 mph for both).  He’s clearly just leaving everything over the plate, and I think (hope?) he can find a way out of it.  I think he keeps the job for a couple of reasons, unless he continues to be so terrible that it forces Macha’s hand:

1) He’s clearly the Brewers best option for the role, and the Brewers bullpen isn’t exceptionally deep.  I think this is one of those situations where they have to try to get Hoffman right, rather than try to find his replacement.

2) Demoting a guy to the earlier innings (to me at least) always implies some sort of mental issue/roadblock and I can’t see this being the case with Hoffman. He’s been closing games since I was 8 years and I don’t think he suddenly lost the mental composition to do it.

3) He’s got only 6 saves to get to 600 for his career.  Someone on brewerfan pointed this out, and I tend to think it will at least play more of a factor than it should: Macha will be reluctant to remove him from the role.  If he removes him, and Hoffman doesn’t get to 600 for this reason, it reflects poorly on Macha.  I tend to agree that this actually will be a role in some way. Perhaps one of those unwritten baseball rules or something. Like pulling a guy in the 5th during a no hitter if he has 6 BB and 115 pitches? I don’t know. Granted, if Macha sticks with him and Hoffman continues to give away victories, Macha will be collecting unemployment in short order.

I realize my analysis isn’t earth shattering, by recommending to “stick with the hall of famer,” but there just aren’t great options. I’m not sure how good this team can be when the back end of the bullpen doesn’t include Hoffman.

One last unrelated note, I absolutely cannot wait to listen to Davey on the radio filling in for Uecker. That is all.

Important Announcement that I am, in fact, still alive

Posted by Dan

Greeting everyone. Feels like just yesterday I made a post on this blog, but paging through the archives reveals it was actually June of 1999 the last time I posted.  I’m actually surprised it only took me 3 tries to login.  My official excuse for my prolonged absence is that I was trapped working in an area with no radio reception for the 2009 season, which makes my insight really boring. “Say, did anyone else notice Casey McGehee’s OBP dropped 3 points this week?” doesn’t really inspire a great discussion.  That said, who knows if we’ll look back at this post and laugh next season when I have made no additional posts and the blog is called Darrylandsteve.com — but I will make an honest effort.

My work schedule kind of keeps me from actually watching many of the games, but I do get to listen to them which helps me actually follow more closely than simply coming home and checking to see if they won.  I’m sure my observations will pale in comparison to Joe Morgan’s, and people who actually WATCH the games, but I’ll try.

My main inspiration for breaking the silence was the Phillies extending Ryan Howard (30 years old) through his age-35 season for $125 million.  I’m pretty sure the risks are obvious, but if they aren’t: Howard is already 30, he’s 6’4″ and 260 pounds, and his 3-year average OPS vs lefties is only .741, including .653 last season.  But the title of this blog isn’t “Phillies, Phillies Keep Turning Up the Heat” so I’ll leave that analysis to this guy).

This has certain ramifications for the Brewers chances to re-sign Prince.  Obviously, it establishes some sort of precedent Scott Boras will use in free agency, and to me it spells the end for Prince in Milwaukee–if they had any shot of extending him in the first place.  Prince is 4 and a half years younger, which means the team who signs him gets him through his prime, whereas Howard is already past his.  The past three seasons, Fielder has a WAR 14.7, where Howard’s is 12.4 so Fielder’s been the more productive player. I can’t see 5/$125M even getting it done for Prince, and I’m not sure it’s worth it.  Prince is a great player, and we all love him, but I just don’t think they can/should commit $25M of a $90M payroll for one guy.  It also makes Fielder more likely to test free agency because Howard was slated to hit FA at the same time as Prince.  That class of 1B is scheduled to include Prince, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.  The common thought is that this could kind of curtail the market for Prince, but now with Howard gone that is lessened.  You also have to assume Pujols won’t walk, so that has to make Prince more excited to be more of the main attraction.

Here’s what I propose the Brewers should do instead:

1.  Extend Rickie Weeks — Rickie is picking up right where he left off last year before the wrist injury derailed his season.  I’m trying not to overreact over what is essentially his last 150 ABs, but even his .740 OPS over 560 PA in 2008 as a floor/baseline is valuable enough and it really seems he’s turned the corner.  If this .850 OPS version of Rickie Weeks is the real deal, he’s far more valuable, and far less replaceable than Prince.  I have no idea what it would take to extend Weeks right now, or if he’d go for it but I think this is a big priority since I can’t see us affording both Weeks and Fielder.

2.  Trade Fielder for some haul as soon as it’s confirmed this team isn’t going anywhere this year.  If the Brewers can get something like what the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira it could go a long way toward the Brewers long term outlook.  If they could find a few players they controlled for 4+ years who could become big contributors, that could be worth more than just the Prince extension.

3.  I think the Brewers’ business plan has to bewhat they’ve done to this point.  Basically, I think that extensions are going to have to be club-friendly ones like the ones Yo and Braun signed.  There’s risk in doing it that way, but it allows you to buy out a year or possibly 2 of free agency while keeping the dollar amount down.  Granted, the Bill Hall contract blew up in their face, but I still think that’s the way to go.  I also realize this wasn’t possible with the Boras/Fielder duo, but if it’s possible with Weeks I think they should take it.  He carries more injury risk I guess, but I’m always willing to give players the benefit of the doubt (I seem to have guys like Brian Westbrook, or Rich Harden every year on my fantasy teams) in terms of injury-proneness (there’s no red squiggly line but how can that be a word?) Unless you believe that Rickie Weeks wrists are just frail and more easily torn than most, I guess I just assume its a fluke.

I’ll leave the proof-reading to Steve.

Ch-ch-ch-changes!

Posted by Steve

Due to my schedule, I have not been able to catch all the Brewer games from the beginning. The ones that I have, however, have left me quite concerned.

I’m not talking about struggling pitching, and after the last few games, I’m certainly not talking about slow offensive starts. In fact, I’m not referring to anything happening on the field.

I’m referring to the lack of the Piggly Wiggly Scouting Report.

Like I said, I haven’t seen too many FS Wisconsin games from the beginning yet, but…. I haven’t seen Bill do one Scouting Report! Can anyone else confirm this? Or more preferably, correct me and tell me there in fact are still Scouting Reports? Bill’s Scouting Report of the Week was my favorite (only?) recurring theme of KTUTH. If it’s truly gone, I’ll won’t know what to do with myself.

________

While it wouldn’t come close to replacing BSROTW, there is a new feature on the FS Wisconsin broadcast that I have found very enjoyable: the Fox Trax strike zone. I don’t remember for sure if they had Fox Trax last year, but I’ve seen it in every game this season. TBS has something called Pitch Trax, and I think ESPN’s is K Zone, but they’re all similar. They use a series of cameras trained on home plate, and a computer spits out the image of where the ball crossed the zone. Having this in pretty much every baseball game is a big step towards the electronic strike zone I’ve been clamoring for. Charting games last year made me realize home plate umps miss around 10 ball/strike calls on average each game. Fox Trax/Pitch Trax/K Zone will help all fans realize how often umps miss calls.

Baseball, more than any other sport, is stuck in its old ways. This is due to the same people who are still so obsessed with “retaliation” after a player gets hit (I felt soooo vindicated after Todd Coffey hit Ryan Doumit last night!!!) or with “not showing up a team.” These old-timers are slowly but surely losing their grasp. Home run replay has been instituted. Some protested the implementation of that vehemently because they knew once that worked, people would just want more–and they should.

Every other major U.S. sport uses a fairly extensive replay system. Home plate umpires were the best we could do for over a century, but that’s no longer the case. We have the technology to be more accurate than humans, so let’s use it!

On a slightly different note, another reason I love Fox Trax is because Bill is completely flustered by it. Not only is it obvious that Bill is one of the old guard and probably hates Pitch Trax, but it ruins his favorite Bill-ism! What’s Bill’s favorite thing to say? Of course it’s, “Boy, that’s a tough pitch to take with two strikes.”

Bill said that the other day right before Fox Trax showed the ball was eight inches outside. High comedy.

Additionally, there have already been two occasions in which Bill has simply disagreed with Fox Trax, opting to trust his own eye instead. In a Gallardo start the other day, he said (paraphrasing) “Fox Trax had that off the plate, but that looked like a pretty good pitch by Yo.”

I suggest if you haven’t noticed this yet that you look for it from now on. It only adds to the enjoyment of watching a Brewer game.

________

I was perusing Fangraphs today (because that’s what super cool people do), and naturally, one of the people I looked up was Rickie Weeks. You don’t need a new age stat to tell you that Rickie Weeks is all that and a bag of chips, but here’s one anyway. Wins Above Replacement is a stat that rates one’s offensive output based on the position he plays. For example, the same offensive output by a second baseman is more valuable than if it comes from a first baseman, because second base is a more difficult position to play.

Anywho, I sorted by the MLB leaders in WAR, and lo and behold: Rickie Weeks is tied for fourth in all of baseball in WAR. What a stud. He’s a great offensive player, and it’s that much more valuable because he plays one of the more challenging positions on the field. I look forward to his first All-Star appearance this season.

________

Some shocking news ended up being hardly noticeable. Joe Morgan was hired by the Reds as a “special advisor to baseball operations.” I’m sure your first thought, as was mine, was “Is he leaving ESPN? Sweet Mother of God, is Joe Morgan leaving ESPN?”

As it turns out, nope. This is a ceremonial position, probably little more than marketing. It’s still funny to imagine Joe working in a baseball front office when I personally know several people trying to break into the business who are infinitely more knowledgeable. Did I say funny? I think I meant horrific.

________

Finally, I just have one more thing: A big deal has been made of the pitching woes to start the season, as just a few days ago, the Brewers’ team ERA was above 6. I’d like to go on record saying the starting rotation will be fine. Of course, this prediction won’t seem so bold after giving up one run in the last two games, but you can choose whether to believe I felt this way three days ago.

The main reason I’m saying this is because of Randy Wolf. He’s the one starter at this point you could single out as falling short of expectations. His 4.91 ERA, on the surface, is not what the Brewers paid him to do. A closer look shows that Wolf has actually pitched better than his ERA indicates. His xFIP is 4.01. I like watching Wolf pitch.  He pounds the strike zone, trusts his stuff, and doesn’t nibble–exactly what you’d like to see from Gallardo, who incidentally has better stuff than Wolf. I have a feeling Wolf has a nice start today as the Brewers sweep away the Pirates.

Return of Yost?

Posted by Steve

Shades of Ned Yost at Wrigley Field today, as Ken Macha channeled his inner-Yost in the bottom of the eighth inning. With two out, nobody on and the Brewers leading by three, Latroy Hawkins fell apart. Once the Cubs cut the lead to 6-5, Kosuke Fukudome, a left-handed hitter came up with no viable pinch hitting options. Both Mitch Stetter and Manny Parra were available, but somehow neither had even been warming up. In fact, nobody had warmed up. Hawkins was around 30 pitches (finished the inning with 39!), and the result was the least surprising base hit of the day.

What an inexcusable move. Are there any intelligent game managers available? We haven’t seen one in Milwaukee. If we hear something in the post-game interview from Macha along the lines of “We didn’t take out Hawkins because the eighth is his inning,” I’ll really know Ned Yost has returned.

I will say that I’m surprised at my complete lack of anger at a loss like this. Could it be due to my low expectations for this team?

Game Blog: Cardinals at Brewers, 4/11/10

Posted by Steve

Sunday Night Baseball for the Crew tonight, which means the first Game Blog of the year! We’ll use Cover It Live, so if you’re just sitting around watching the game and desperately want to criticize/mock Joe Morgan, stop on in! See you back here around 7 p.m. Central.

Click Here

Let’s Talk Lineups

Posted by Steve

After seeing Carlos Gomez hit in the second spot for the first three games, it’s pretty safe to say he’s Ken Macha’s two-hitter for the foreseeable future. To put it bluntly, that’s a bad idea.

To explain why, I defer to The Book by Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin. They have a great chapter on batting orders, which they back up with years of evidence. Here are some of the highlights:

  • Your two best hitters should hit second and fourth, with the bigger slugger hitting cleanup.
  • Strikeout numbers or the “ability to move runners over” (ugh) should not be considered.
  • The number three hitter should actually be a lesser hitter than the 1, 2, or 4 hitters. This is because the number three hitter comes up in lower leverage situations more often than the 1, 2, or 4 spots–for example, with two outs and nobody on base.
  • The second leadoff theory–hitting the pitcher eighth–gains you a handful of runs over the course of a season.

The one that should jump out to you is that the number two hitter should be your best or second best hitter in the lineup. Instead, the Brewers hit Carlos Gomez there! You’ll even notice on that page for The Book, they say, “If nothing else, we will consider this book a true success if all thirty teams were to never put a below-average hitter in the second spot. While the proper strategy will only gain you a few runs, why do something that is otherwise clearly wrong?”

Applying this theory to the Brewers lineup using CHONE projections, a near optimal lineup looks something like this (projected OBP and SLG in parentheses)

  1. Rickie Weeks (.368, .449)
  2. Ryan Braun (.372, .568)
  3. Casey McGehee (.326, .412) Mat Gamel’s projections were better
  4. Prince Fielder (.387, .577)
  5. Corey Hart (.333, .456)
  6. Alcides Escobar (.334, .389)
  7. Gregg Zaun (.332, .368) Jonathan Lucroy’s projections were better.
  8. Pitcher
  9. Carlos Gomez (.329, .390) Jody Gerut’s projections were better

A few things jump out from that. First: CHONE thinks the Brewers have only three above average hitters on their team. That’s obviously concerning.

Second: CHONE thinks the Brewers have three players within the organization who are better offensively than current starters (yes Gamel’s hurt, but he wasn’t going to win the job anyway). That’s also concerning.

Third: that is a pretty wacky-looking lineup. I don’t recall anyone suggesting Braun and Fielder be broken up in the lineup, but that’s exactly what The Book suggests. People seem to groan whenever the Brewers hit the pitcher eighth, but I’ve always been in support of it.

I know I’ve discussed lineup optimization in the past, and I admitted that for the fairly negligible difference they make (maybe a win or so over the course of a season), the strong response/backlash they would receive may not even be worth it. But that statement was made when lineups were fairly close to optimal. The current lineup Macha is using is so far from optimal that it would likely cost the Brewers more than two wins if he used it all season.

A perfect “real-life” application of this was seen in yesterday’s game. With nobody out, Rickie Weeks stood on second base and Carlos Gomez was up to bat. With the leadoff hitter on second, that is normally a great RBI opportunity for what should be one of your best hitters. Instead, Macha had Gomez sac bunt the runner to third! Terrible move regardless of who was hitting–that move lowers the run expectancy for the inning–but the sac bunt was only a viable option in Macha’s mind because he was hitting Gomez second. If Ryan Braun was up in that spot, do you think he’d have been bunting?

Since The Book’s lineup will never fly, I’m willing to make a compromise. Here’s my suggestion of a happy medium between Macha’s lineup and The Book’s lineup:

Against Righties

  1. Weeks
  2. Edmonds
  3. Braun
  4. Fielder
  5. McGehee
  6. Escobar
  7. Zaun
  8. Pitcher
  9. Gomez

Against Lefties

  1. Weeks
  2. Hart
  3. Braun
  4. Fielder
  5. McGehee
  6. Escobar
  7. Zaun
  8. Pitcher
  9. Gomez

Of course, if I had my druthers, Gerut would be getting a good chunk of Gomez’s playing time, but I chose to go with who the Brewers have decided are their starters. I’m not a huge Edmonds fan, but he still shows nice on-base skills and is likely to have a higher OBP than Gomez. Hart’s on-base skills have been pretty bad the last couple years, but against lefties his career OBP is a solid .357.

I admit that I can at least see what the Brewers liked in Carlos Gomez. He’s carried the “potential” tag with him for years, and he showed why on Monday. There’s still hope that he could become a good offensive player, but the point is, at this point in his career all he’s been is a below average hitter. There’s no reason to hit him in one of the most important spots in the lineup until he has proven he can hit.

Five questions for you

Posted by Steve

1. It’s opening Day! Where does Opening Day rank for you in terms of best days of the year?

For me, it’s ahead of most holidays. Fourth of July is probably the best holiday (great weather, cookouts, etc) but Opening Day is right up there. The only sporting event that is in the same ballpark is the first day of March Madness (and once they expand the field and ruin it, Opening Day will be in a class by itself).

2. What are your Opening Day traditions?

I’ve never actually attended an Opening Day game, believe it or not. The best opening days were spent in La Crosse during college. My favorite memory is cooking out with a ton of people, watching Ben Sheets shut out the Dodgers, and then going immediately to our intramural softball game. Ah, college.

I also have a baseball playlist that I go through each Opening Day. It features Turnin’ Up The Heat, Come See What’s Brewin’, Roll Out The Barrel, Centerfield by John Fogerty, Boys of Summer by Don Henley, and Glory Days by Bruce Springsteen.

3. How are the Brewers going to do this year?

I’d like to hear people’s thoughts. Might be fun to go back at the end of the season and see who was closest. I’m going to say 80-82. I’ve been over why I don’t think they’ll improve much–improved pitching but regressed offense results in a .500-ish team. The Cards will take the division, and the Reds will probably be better than the Brewers also. At least the Cubs won’t be good–and with their aging players and terrible contracts, they’ll stay that way for a few years.

4. Should I renew the sponsorship of Mark DiFelice’s Baseball Reference page?

Shortly after I made my prized transaction, DiFelice blew out his arm and is lost for all of 2010. Who knows if he’ll ever pitch with the Brewers again? The other day I got an email asking if I want to renew the sponsorship for next season. It costs $5. I almost feel obligated to renew it, but it’s more or less throwing five bucks away–nobody’s going to visit a page of a no-name pitcher on the DL. I’m torn.

5. How big of an idiot am I?

…For scheduling something at 3:00 and ruining my off day that would have been spent watching the game? HOW BIG OF AN IDIOT AM I?