This was inevitable, but that doesn’t make it any less dumb

Posted by Steve

You just knew something like this was coming. It’s been some time since I got to FJM an article, so I’ll gladly welcome this chance.

An uneasy feeling about Braun

Published March 19, 2012 at 11:00 a.m.

Listening to the radio and reading various reports on the goings-on in Milwaukee Brewers camp in Maryvale, Ariz. over the last few weeks have worked up a feeling I didn’t think I’d have again for quite some time.

Excitement for baseball’s return?

It’s not a knot in the stomach, exactly, but sort of that uneasy squirminess that comes a few hours after you took a chance on that milk in your fridge when the expiration date had passed.

Uh…

I mean, it was only a couple days and it smelled okay, so what the heck right? And I’ll only put a little in the cereal.

But once your stomach rumbles as you get jammed up on 94 due to some construction, you don’t think positively – your brain immediately turns to all the worst case outcomes possible.

This is kind of gross, and probably officially a long-winded introduction. Almost Matthew Berry-esque.

I get that feeling hearing about Ryan Braun’s struggles this spring, about the 1-for-15 he carries into this week’s games.

Oh Lord. 1-for-15. 1-for-15!? Let’s pretend for just a second that Spring Training stats mean absolutely anything at all. It’s difficult, but just try.

A 1-for-15 stretch is almost nothing. Players have stretches like that all the time. Let’s imagine that during the course of the season, a player had stretches of 2-for-12, 3-for-18, 1-for-15, 3-for-34(!), 3-for-19, 1-for-10, 1-for-15, 1-for-12, and 1-for-13.

Looks pretty ugly, right?

Those stretches are from a player in 2011. That player is Ryan Braun, and he won the MVP last season. Yet, we’re about to suffer through a column because Braun has gone 1-for-15 in Spring Training.

The MVP will play in back-to-back games for the first time beginning today, and maintains the spring is about the “process” rather than results – always has, always will. He says his lack of success, as well as the boo’s he’s received, don’t concern him.

It’s all part of the process.

For the better part of my life, I’ve believed that and paid no mind to spring training results.

So why on Earth would you start now?

I’ve been to multiple training camps and seen hitters spend days either trying to pull or push every pitch in every at-bat, regardless of outcome. It’s what the spring is for, to work on those things. So yes, to an extent, March is about development.

If by “extent” you mean “the entire reason for,” you’re correct.

But the reason I feel a little anxious about Braun’s issues is because I’ve also seen firsthand the painful and inexplicable decimation of a baseball player, physically and mentally, due to increased pressure and negative scrutiny.

I’ve seen it twice, actually.

Not TWICE!?!?@#@!

The most baffling example came just last year in Chicago, when the White Sox signed Adam Dunn to as one of a series of offseason moves to tell fans the team was “all in” in its effort to win another World Series.

It was a wise move. Dunn’s 10-year average of 35.4 home runs, 88 RBI and .899 OPS put him in the same statistical stratosphere as Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew and Ralph Kiner, as well as future Hall of Famer Jim Thome.

For the first time in his career, however, there were heavy personal and team expectations placed upon him. In the first four games of the season, Dunn produced, going 4-for-14 (.286) with a homer, five RBI, four walks and three runs scored. Then he underwent an emergency appendectomy, missed a week, and then re-started a year that will go down as one of the worst offensive seasons in modern baseball history.

Not only did he hit just .154 with 11 homers , but his OPS was 300 percentage points lower than his career average. It was mind-boggling.

Dunn is a strange case for sure, but he’s a few years older than Braun and has a very different type of game. Also, I was understating things when I said Dunn was a strange case. His is perhaps the most bizarre/immediate falloff in the last 30 or so years of baseball. Trying to assume that Braun might fall off because Dunn did in such a radical fashion makes no sense.

A similar situation happened to the Chicago Cubs in 2009 after back-to-back playoff seasons resulted in first round exits.

The Cubs brought in Milton Bradley, who was coming off a season in which he led the league with a .436 OBP and a ridiculous .999 OPS. He was also fresh off a two-year stretch where he hit .316, had over a .940 OPS and totaled 78 extra base hits.

True, he was miscast as a left-handed slugger when the Cubs signed him, but no one could have expected a.257 average with 12 homers and a .775 OPS – his lowest output since 2002, before melting down completely and being suspended by the team.

Milton Bradley has always carried the stigma of a good player who’s emotionally volatile. He’s pretty much the Ron Artest of Major League Baseball. Again, I see no reason this could correlate to Ryan Braun at all.

These were two cases where the intense scrutiny both by the home, road and national media just wore them out. They changed what they did at the plate in trying to find a fix and they snapped on fans and reporters. Even teammates became weary of the constant questions about their performance.

Again, two. How many dozens of cases have their been in which players came in with “intense scrutiny” and still maintained a high performance?

If Braun carries these spring struggles into the season, this will only be magnified.

He’s the reigning MVP. He’s the only player to win an appeal of a positive drug test. The commissioner of baseball used to own the team. It’s going to be a three-ring circus if he doesn’t start the season on fire, and the tent will only get bigger the longer he struggles.

Ok, I can find one example that proves my point, so I am going to state it has significance to Braun. I can play this game, too!

Barry Bonds faced that scrutiny/heckling for years and still dominated. Therefore, Ryan Braun will too.

When he slumps – like all baseball players do – he needs it to happen post-All Star break when no one will really notice, or can tie it to this offseason.

The frustrating thing is he seems to have common sense. He admits that Spring Training stats don’t mean anything, and that all players slump–so again, why this column?

The first and easiest reason, on the surface, to dismiss this concern and this comparison to Dunn and Bradley is that Braun is a .312 career hitter with a .933 career OPS who has averaged 32.2 homers and 106.2 RBI in five years. He is clearly a better hitter than either Chicago player could ever be.

I love when columnists provide excellent evidence against the very point they are making.

Yet, he’s never experienced what he’s going to go through 2012, just as Dunn and Bradley never had.

Also, Braun doesn’t have Prince Fielder protecting him in the lineup. This year was going to be different, and more difficult, in that regard anyway. Mix in the increased media attention. Toss in the pressure he’ll put on himself to start fast, to show he didn’t need Fielder or performance enhancing drugs to do what he’s done.

There have been all sorts of studies that show protection does not exist. So many that I don’t even want to take the time to link to them. Google “does protection in baseball exist?” and you’ll find plenty of info.

And don’t forget Braun has gone from baseball hero, loved and respected by everyone, to a tainted player who will be booed every road trip.

And he’ll be the only player to be booed?

Barry Bonds thrived on that because he loved being a villain.

Hey, I just said that!

Sammy Sosa crumbled under similar circumstances.

I’m loving the “it happened once, so…” argument that keeps showing up.

We’ll learn a lot about Braun’s mental makeup very early in the year, and he may well go on to hit 30-plus homers and drive in 90 runs. His track record says he will.

It sure does.

But I’m going to check the date on the milk, because I’ve got that feeling all over again.

Ew.

I’m not sure how serious this is, is sometimes things like this are written to create a stir and create page views. I am reluctantly giving it more attention that it should get due to talking about it here (obviously, a nominal amount, but still–it’s the principle). Still, I enjoy these types of posts, and I miss FJM dearly, so why not.

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6 responses to “This was inevitable, but that doesn’t make it any less dumb

  1. I wish I was aware of FJM when it was operational. With that said I also think it’s overblown buuuuuuuuuuuuuuut there is a tiny, infinitesimal warning light going off in my mind. How important do you think the first few weeks of the season are the Braun? I’m afraid that if he stumbles out of the gate everyone will go nuts and it will only make things worse. I’d love to see him start off strong, show that he’s put everything behind him and going to be the player he always has been.

  2. I suppose it’s impossible to say how he’ll react, but Braun is about as confident as they come. I’d be pretty surprised if it affected him that badly.

    I heard Brewers talk briefly on the radio today, and they’re doing the same thing. Something along the lines of, “I wasn’t worried when he was hitting .170-whatever, but now that it’s .059, I’m worried.”

    That’s the difference between going 1-17 and 3-17. People are stupid.

  3. What do you think his response for away games is going to be? Are you anticipating Barry Bonds-esque booing? If Spring Training is any indication it could get ugly.

  4. Aw jeez I have no idea how to comment as myself anymore.

  5. Awesome.

    I’m sure he’ll hear a ton of booing. Maybe not on a Bonds level, but still plenty. If he just hits like he always has, then maybe he’ll get more believers and it will settle down some. Still, Braun has always been that guy who loved that type of attention, so who knows.

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