Monthly Archives: September 2012

Still long odds

Posted by Steve

The Brewers have really accomplished something over the last month. We’ve talked about how amazing it is that they’re even in the running for the playoffs, but now, what are their chances of actually finishing it off and getting there?

Not good.

Entering today, Baseball Prospectus gave the Brewers a 5.2% chance to reach the playoffs, while the Dodgers are at 11.4% and the Cardinals are at 79.5%. The reason it’s so high has been on display over the last couple nights: The Cardinals have an incredibly easy schedule and a two-game lead on the next closest team.

The Brewers are playing out of their minds, but unfortunately, it doesn’t matter if the Cardinals (and Dodgers, I guess) don’t lose as well. The Brewers gained five games on St. Louis over ten days, whichsd is an amazing number, but it still may not be enough. The Cardinals play the Astros, Cubs, and Astros again yet this season. They’re beating up on Houston for the second night in a row, which means even after beating the Pirates and essentially vanquishing any playoff hopes Pittsburgh had left, the Brewers haven’t gained any ground.

The Brewers have 14 games left. Normally, you’d think winning nine of those games would chase down the Cards, but with that darn schedule, I’m not so sure. I feel fairly confident in saying more than nine wins in their last 14 will do it, but at the same time… That’s very difficult to do.

Yes, they’ve been playing at that rate for a long time (22 wins in last 28 games), but like I said, that’s also an unsustainable rate. The team is really firing on all cylinders, though (BTW, Jean Segura, you guys!), so who knows.

They certainly have our attention, and what they’ve done should absolutely be applauded, but if they slip up even a bit, this won’t last long. The Pirates were right with the Brewers at the start of this series, and two days later you can pretty much stick a fork in them. This could just as easily happen to the Brewers.

“It’s like the super hot girl at the bar who is flirting with you but you don’t know if she actually is or if you even want her to for fear of what might happen.”

What is happening.

The Brewers keep winning.

The Cardinals just got swept by the Padres (first time since 1995).

Rickie Weeks is a MAN.

And suddenly, the Brewers are three games out of a playoff spot.

The point of this post is not to dissect their chances, which are all of a sudden worth dissecting. That will come. No, the purpose of this post is to point out how ABSURD this all is.

Two days ago–TWO DAYS–Baseball Prospectus had the Brewers’ playoff odds at 0.0%. In reality, it was probably something like 0.04% and they rounded down, but whatever. Two days ago. Today it is 1.8, and tomorrow it should jump up a good amount.

I don’t normally do this, but I’m going to interject a bit of my personal life into this post. I just started a demanding new job. I’m moving this weekend. In other words, I have a lot going on. I had come to peace with the fact that the Brewers were not making the playoffs this season, and I had even managed to look on the bright side: Not having to watch every inning of every game the rest of the year will actually be beneficial to my mental and physical well being.

So much for that. My last post was all about how I’m not getting sucked in, but that was when they were still over six games out. They’ve cut that in half in just a few days. I don’t particularly want to be invested in this, but at just three games out, I’m afraid I have no choice.

Special thanks to reader/commenter Shawn, the genius behind this incredibly accurate title/analogy for how I currently feel about the Brewers.

 

Let’s not do this to ourselves.

Posted by Steve

I only have time for a brief post, but I had to chime in on this. The Brewers are in the midst of a very nice stretch. In the past month or so, they’ve played the way most of us expected them to play all season. They’ve been fun to watch, for sure.

With that said… Are we really roping ourselves into thoughts of playoffs again? Do you really want to put yourself through this?

The Brewers are playing their best baseball of the season; they’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NL. And now they’re “only” 7 games back of the final wildcard spot. So, what does that bring their playoff chances to? Maybe 4%? 5%?

Try 0.4%.

And BP calculated that before today’s loss, so by now it’s even lower.

There are too many teams to leapfrog for it to be plausible. Even if the Brewers were to sweep the Cardinals this weekend, there would be other teams ahead of them who will have won. There are just too many teams to chase down in such a short amount of time–and that’s before considering the fact that this team in all likelihood doesn’t have the talent to put together the historic run a playoff appearance would require.

I’m watching the Brewers for the reasons I’ve described lately: namely, watching all the young players and looking toward their chances for next season. Suit yourself, of course, but I’m not going to set myself up all over again for the inevitable letdown.