Author Archives: Steve

Attempting to analyze Ricke Weeks’ struggles

Posted on May 15, 2012 | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

It’s been a while since I’ve posted, and the Brewers are comfortably ahead by a score of 7-0, so I decided to work on a Rickie Weeks post while I watch the rest of the game.

(At this point, Rickie Weeks broke an 0-21 slump with a massive home run. I’m claiming at least 40% responsibility for that one.)

It’s been a struggle for Weeks. He’s suffered from some crappy luck at times during his career, and his BABIP this year is alarmingly low (.208 before tonight’s game), but a number that low certainly can’t all be placed on luck.

I’ll use Fangraphs for some eye-opening numbers that show Weeks just isn’t making as much solid contact this year as he has throughout his career.

His line drive percentage for his career is 17.0%. This year, it’s 11.3%. That’s a huge difference; the lowest he’s ever finished a season is 15.4% in 2010. At least as alarming is his infield fly ball (pop-up) percentage. For his career, it’s 13.9%. This year, it’s 22.6!

So, he’s hitting far fewer line drives, and he’s popping up a ton. He’s also striking out at the highest clip in his career, although his walk rate is also higher than normal.

Some strange results from Weeks. Let’s try and see what’s going on.

The eye test, at least from me, tells me that Weeks is guessing more at the plate. He’s kept his great batter’s eye on balls out of the strike zone, but it seems like he’s struggling on balls inside the strike zone.

The numbers seem to back up that assessment. For his career, Weeks has swung at 21.5% of balls outside of the strike zone. This year, it’s 23.2%–nothing too crazy there. Where it gets interesting is the amount of balls he’s swinging at inside the strike zone. For his career, it’s 61.0%, but this season, Weeks is only swinging at 55.7% of balls within the strike zone. That’s pretty extreme; only 13 qualified players in baseball are swinging at strikes at a lower rate.

Numbers also show he’s struggling on the pitch on which he’s always feasted: the fastball. Fangraphs/BIS data show Weeks has not gained any offensive value off the fastball this season. To me, this is the best indicator that he’s either guessing or not seeing the ball well.

Someone on Brewerfan made a comparison to Bill Hall tonight, which I just can’t get on board with. Hall had less than two years of success when he got his contract, while Weeks has always been a highly rated prospect who’s had several years of success. There’s no reason to think Weeks is headed toward the total collapse that Hall suffered.

Still, there is some reason for a little concern. Unlike times in the past, luck isn’t the main culprit for this slump. It seems he either isn’t seeing the ball well, or that he just isn’t reacting as quickly as he used to. The home run he blasted tonight was sure encouraging, so maybe he’ll pick it up here soon, but the Brewers likely aren’t going anywhere this year if he doesn’t.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2012, The legend of Rickie Weeks and his titanium skeletal system

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Bad to worse

Posted on May 7, 2012 | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

While obviously not ideal, losing Chris Narveson and Mat Gamel was manageable. Losing Alex Gonzalez, who joins Gamel with a torn ACL, is a different story. Gonzalez had been impressive this season. He came up with some big hits, but more importantly, his defense was terrific. The Brewers have in-house options Gamel and Narveson, but there are no passable replacements for Gonzalez currently in the organization. If the Brewers want to contend this season, they’ll need to add a new shortstop somehow.

This should be the focus. I have no interest in adding Derek Lee to play first base. Not because he wouldn’t help; he’d fit in nicely as a platoon with Taylor Green. But who actually believes Roenicke wouldn’t play Lee most of the time? He’s a 36-year-old who had a .325 OBP last year; Lee won’t help as a near full-time player.

So, much like we did a few months ago, let’s look at some shortstop options.

Unfortunately, there aren’t many. It’s too early for teams to give up on the season, therefore you won’t find many sellers. Two who are so bad that they shouldn’t have qualms would be the Twins and Padres.

Jamey Carroll was just benched. The Twins gave him a two year deal for $6 million. He’s 38 and can’t play every day. I’m not all that interested in Carroll, but he wouldn’t cost much of anything in terms of prospects.

The Padres have Jason Bartlett signed for $5.5 million this year. Bartlett doesn’t do much for me, either. He hasn’t reached a WAR of 2 since 2009, and Fangraphs doesn’t think much of his defense.

Gonzalez already had a .4 WAR this season (Yuni had 0.5 all of last season!) The Brewers aren’t going to find someone to play at that level, although Gonzalez wasn’t going to keep that up either. Bartlett and Carroll just aren’t worth the money; they aren’t that much better than replacement level at this point.

The Brewers do need a new shortstop, but the reality is they will likely need to wait until sometime in June to get one. That means it’s up to play well enough in the meantime, so the team is still in position to buy once others are willing to sell.

I’m not all that worried yet, to be honest. Rickie Weeks, Aramis Ramirez, and Ryan Braun (save for one game, really) have yet to hit their stride offensively. Yo is going to turn it around. They should be able to hang around .500 and be in position to add a shortstop within the next 4-6 weeks.

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Replacing Mat Gamel

Posted on May 2, 2012 | 7 Comments

Posted by Steve

A few months ago the main question the Brewers faced was: How do we replace Prince Fielder? Now, unfortunately, it seems the question is how to replace the replacement. Mat Gamel injured his knee on a frustratingly unimportant play last night in San Diego. The latest news is that he needs surgery, although there has not yet been any detail as far as what the injury is/what type of surgery he’ll need. Safe to say he’ll have a lengthy DL stint; the question at this point is whether he’ll be back at all this year.

So, what should the Brewers do? They have a number of options, but I’ll say right away that playing Travis Ishikawa at first base for the rest of the season should not be an option. His career OPS is .724, which is just not cutting it at first base. Even a platoon of Ishikawa and Brooks Conrad isn’t idea; Ishikawa has a career OPS of .740 against righties–still not cutting it. I’m still not sure why he’s on the team, to be honest.

If the Brewers want to go in house, they have two pretty decent options. The first is to move Aramis Ramirez to first base and call up Taylor Green to play third. While I’d love to see this, I’m almost sure the Brewers wouldn’t do it.

Another option, which seems more likely, is to move Corey Hart to first base, at least on a semi-regular basis. This does a few things. First, it keeps solid offense at the first base position. Secondly, it opens up some playing time for the glut of outfielders on the roster. Nori Aoki or Nyjer Morgan can play right when Hart plays first. While neither has the ideal arm for right field, the outstanding outfield range in center and right would make up for it.

This option seems more likely, simply because the Brewers already worked out Hart at first in spring. Although Hart is likely to be shaky defensively at first (not that Gamel was great himself), his height is an advantage there. It’s still likely that the Brewers’ defense would improve at both first and right, possibly enough to make up for the offensive drop-off.

There are other options as well. The Brewers would probably love to get George Kotarras’ bat into the lineup more often, so I wouldn’t at all mind seeing get occasional playing time at first base.

There are some free agents available. I have no real interest in Jorge Cantu, but Derek Lee is still available. I’m not thrilled at all with Lee, but it’s possible he could still be productive in a semi-platoon role.

My personal preference would be one of the first two suggestions. Since the Brewers aren’t going to move A-Ram to first, I prefer to see Hart there–at least more than Ishikawa/Conrad. I imagine this is what we’ll see pretty regularly. I don’t think they should explore signing someone like Lee unless Gamel is out for the year, and even then, it won’t be some magic solution.

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Posted in 2012 Hot Stove, Defense, Milwaukee Brewers 2012

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Stop with the “retaliation”

Posted on April 25, 2012 | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I don’t listen a ton of sports radio, but I like to listen to post game shows when I’m leaving Miller Park sometimes. Last night, one of the hot topics was Rickie Weeks getting hit by a pitch, and how the Brewers need to “retaliate.” Ugh. It’s so stupid, and a thing of the past, and I hate when the Brewers get caught up in it. A few years ago, Ned Yost got roped into this by Tony La Russa and got absolutely schooled into putting a winning run on base.

So sure enough, the Brewers retaliated today by hitting Chris Snyder (who said he thought Gamel should have slid the other day instead of lowering his shoulder at the plate). Snyder led off the second inning, and of course he came around to score–along with two other Astros that inning.

So are we happy now? Are we retaliating at the expense of runs? At the expense of wins? Chris Snyder is not a good hitter. Putting him on base to lead off an inning is simply stupid. It led to a big inning, and pitching to him may have entirely changed the course of the inning.

It’s not 1950 anymore. Players don’t smoke in the dugout or openly take greenies. They don’t pitch 300+ innings a year. The game has changed. Players don’t even really dislike players on other teams, or at least not nearly as much since free agency has existed. Why are we still living in the past with this issue when a baserunner can make all the difference in a game?

You know what the best retaliation would have been? Sweeping the Astros out of town. Instead, they put a guy on base and led to a three-run inning in which the Brewers lost by two runs.

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Posted in Base Clogging, Milwaukee Brewers 2012, Runnin' Ron Roenicke

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How to replace Chris Narveson?

Posted on April 20, 2012 | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Seemingly out of nowhere, the Brewers just announced that Chris Narveson is headed to the DL with a torn rotator cuff. I suppose it’s not shocking, since his velocity had been down this season, but this was the first anyone outside of the Brewers had heard of any injury. It’s a tough break for Narveson, who was set to enter his first year of arbitration next season. It’s unknown yet whether he’ll need surgery, although I can’t imagine a torn rotator cuff not needing it.

So, just like that, there goes the Brewers’ health I have been talking about, along with their durable rotation. The question now obviously becomes: How should the Brewers replace Narveson in the rotation?

Mike McClendon is already in Milwaukee, as he was set to replace Kameron Loe for bereavement leave, anyway. McClendon is just a reliever though, although I’m guessing him to stick up here now after Narveson’s injury. Wily Peralta, the Brewers’ top pitching prospect, has also been called up. Before you get too excited, though, Gord Ash has already said Peralta will only be up until Loe returns. I’m guessing since Estrada isn’t fully stretched out, Peralta will be piggybacked with Estrada in tomorrow’s game, with them each throwing 3-4 innings or so.

To me, that sounds like Estrada will fill Narveson’s spot for now. He did a nice job of it last year when Greinke was gone, and to be honest, I like him better in that role than as a reliever anyway. Still, can Estrada stick in the rotation all season if the team wants to make the playoffs?

Chris Narveson is not a great pitcher. If you’re going to look on the bright side, it’s that he’s much easier to replace than any of the top three starters. He’s been an average starting pitcher at best over his career, including last season. Still, he was solidly above replacement level. Can Estrada match that?

I’m not totally convinced. I’m fine giving Estrada the next four or five starts and seeing how they go. It would help Peralta to get some more time in AAA, anyway. Still, I’m betting on Peralta being in the Major League rotation at some point this year. Another candidate could be Mike Fiers, who’s starting in Nashville, and a darkhorse could be Tyler Thornburg, who’s off to a great start in AA.

I suppose I’m obligated to mention that Roy Oswalt is still available, but I don’t see that happening. He seems like he’s very choosy about where he wants to go (if he even wants to play anymore), and I doubt he’ll commit to a team before it’s clear they’re in the mix for the playoffs.

If the time isn’t now for Wily Peralta, it’s soon. He’s not Yovani Gallardo, but he’s the best pitching prospect they’ve had since Yo. He was likely scheduled to arrive next season, but it looks like we may get an early look.

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Posted in 2012 Hot Stove, Milwaukee Brewers 2012, Prospects/Minor Leagues

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This is getting to be amazing (Kottaras)

Posted on April 18, 2012 | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

That was about as good as a mid-April game can get.

I was at the game last night, and a few things come to mind:

1. Interesting to see that the team who used their best reliever against the heart of the order got through the inning cleanly, while the team who didn’t blew the lead. Of course I’m talking about not using John Axford in the eighth inning when Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier were up. K-Rod gave up the bomb to Ethier that could have cost the Brewers the game. Meanwhile, against Morgan, Braun and Ramirez, the Dodgers used Kenley Janson to carve the Brewers up in the eighth.

Now, I’m really not holding this against Ron Roenicke much at all, because there might not be a manager in baseball who would have used Axford there. That doesn’t mean it was the right choice not to, though. A team’s best relief pitcher should pitch in the highest leverage situations, and clearly that was the eighth inning with the only two great hitters in the Dodgers lineup coming up (By the way, I’m not giving Don Mattingly credit for using Jansen in the eighth, either. He’s not their closer, so they just happened to luck out that the heart of the order was coming up. You can bet that if he was the closer, he wouldn’t have come in then either).

2. What I will blame Roenicke for is ALL OF THE BUNTING. Goodness, I cannot believe how stupid it was to bunt with Jonathan Lucroy in the ninth inning with tiny Cesary Izturis on deck. He even left the bunt on with a 2-0 count! What kind of message is that sending to your catcher? More importantly, why is he so anxious to give up an out? Even if he was planning on using Kottaras the whole way (I bet anything he’d have kept Izturis in if the bunt had worked), it’s a bad move.

My brother gave me crap, because I told him this would be a game that I’d still be mad about even if they won, and then of course I was celebrating a minute later. I stand by it, though. I can still be angry that Roenicke called for that bunt, and that he is so bunt-happy in general.

3. George Kottaras is awesome.

Hyperbole aside for a minute. Honestly, I’ve always liked his bat, and I’m really glad to see that Roenicke finally seems willing to use him more. It’s good for a couple reasons. Obviously, it’s good because he is a power hitting lefty who is much better than Mark Kotsay, Travis Ishikawa, or whomever. But it’s also good because maybe now Roenicke won’t be so quick to yank Kottaras early on Lucroy’s days off. Last year, Kottaras often left games he’d started so Lucroy could come in as a defensive replacement. This left Lucroy without many full days off. It’s likely he wore down as the season went on, and his numbers last year support that claim: .844 OPS in March/April, .850 in May, and then never above .673 for any month afterwards.

Letting Kottaras play should help keep Lucroy fresh. Now, if we can only get Roenicke to break the Kottaras/Wolf pairing to avoid having to start George against lefties…

4. One thing I’m guessing may not have been noticeable on tv is the reaction of the crowd after Corey Hart’s hit to lead off the bottom of the ninth. I’m not talking about the initial cheer for the hit itself. After the cheering had died down a bit, Roenicke sent Carlos Gomez in to pinch run. As he did, a buzz spread around the stadium. You know a guy is exciting when a pinch running appearance gets a crowd buzzing.

5. This is perhaps a little cheesy, but I had sort of forgotten how enjoyable regular season baseball can be. Those playoff games are such a grind to watch mentally, especially when you’re at the game. I probably should have had an IV after Game 5 against Arizona. It’s nice to watch an exciting regular season game. You still pull hard for a victory, and it’s still great when they win, but there is a noticeable lack of a horrible feeling in your stomach that comes with tense playoff games. Of course, I’m hoping for more nerve-wracking playoff games again this year, but I enjoyed last night’s game quite a bit.

Mainly because I saw a Kottaras walk-off in person. Look at all those people trying to touch him. It’s like a Beatles concert.

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Posted in Handsome George Kottaras, Milwaukee Brewers 2012, Runnin' Ron Roenicke

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The New Russell Branyan

Posted on April 13, 2012 | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

And he’s so dreamy.

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Posted in Handsome George Kottaras

Greinke saga takes a new turn

Posted on April 11, 2012 | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Things were starting to seem like they were going in the right direction. Zack Greinke said he wouldn’t need an agent unless he “had a reason to get one.” Why would he have a reason to get one unless talks with the Brewers were progressing? When he hired Casey Close, speculation among baseball media members was that they were on their way to working out an extension. After not hearing anything for a week or so, yesterday evening news broke that the Brewers and Close have “suspended” talks.

“I talked with Casey Close and we decided to let it rest for now,” said Melvin. “That doesn’t mean we won’t talk again at some point but we’re going to let it rest right now.”

Hmm. So much left open for interpretation. “We” decided to let it rest? Who? You and your staff? You and Close? And just as important, why is it “resting” all of a sudden?

With the caveat that this is just conjecture on my part, here’s what I see as most likely:

-Greinke and the Brewers were talking throughout spring. Talks were going relatively well to the point that Greinke found it necessary to start interviewing agents.

-Around the time he settled in on Close, Matt Cain signed his massive deal–a record for a right-handed pitcher. It was about $15 million more than I think anyone expected.

-Shortly after that, other crazy deals started flying around. Obviously there were Votto and Cain’s, but in recent days, we’ve seen Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, John Niese, Carlos Santana, and even smaller ones like Alcides Escobar and Jonathan Lucroy.

-At this point Greinke (or most likely Close) started looking around and seeing the crazy money that teams are throwing around. They can point to the Reds and say, “If those clowns are going to commit $300 million to Votto and Phillips until their late 30s, why shouldn’t I hold out for more?” And you know what? They’re exactly right.

There are reports that teams are spending all this money because there will be a new national television contract for MLB after next season, and it will likely result in a lot more revenue for all teams. It makes sense, because how on Earth else can the Reds spend this money? Their attendance is consistently not good, even when they won the division a couple years ago.

(Aside: New television contract or not, what the hell are the Reds doing? Do they have a plan?  $72.5 million for Brandon Phillips is insane. Just crazy. How much of a bargain does the 4-year, $38 million dollar deal that Weeks signed look like right now? Plus, Phillips is 31 in just a couple months, so he’s older than Weeks. Do the Reds realize that these two players have been a core to a team that’s just about .500 the last three seasons? In other words, they’ll have to add pieces in the future to be a true contender. How do they plan on being able to do that with all that money committed to these two players? It’s good for them short term, as in the next three or four years, but after that? Think about how bad the contracts to Todd Helton and Alfonso Soriano look like right now. In six years, the Reds will have the equivalent of both of those players on one team.)

So, back to Greinke. I’m guessing all these recent contracts resulted in the Brewers and Close being way too far apart at the moment. Breaking off–sorry, suspending talks–seems to be a negotiating ploy, but whose ploy is it?

I actually think it’s more likely that it’s the Brewers. Put it this way. What would Greinke get on the open market? In this climate, I’d say at least $150 million. So if Close is asking for, say, $120-130 million, it’s still a discount by definition. But of course, the Brewers can’t pay that.

Greinke has been saying he likes it in Milwaukee. It’s possible that Melvin is saying, “Alright Zack, we’ll see just how much you like it here.” It would be an understandable move. The Brewers simply can’t afford a $120+ million contract. If Greinke really does want to stay here, it’s likely they’ll lower demands a bit. If he likes it here the way Prince Fielder liked it here (he liked it but not so much that he’d take a discount to stay, which is totally understandable), then he’s probably gone.

This certainly isn’t a good sign, but I’m not losing hope. Before this, and especially before the Cain contract, I felt it was a better than 50% chance Greinke would sign. Now, it’s probably less than 50%, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lot less.

Again, this is pretty much just all my own speculation, so don’t think I’m claiming it’s anything more. But the writing’s on the wall, and this is what it spells out to me.

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Posted in Transactions

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Opening Weekend Observations

Posted on April 9, 2012 | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

At the risk of over-analyzing something that I saw in the first three games of a 162-game season, here are some thoughts I have after watching the Brewers and Cardinals.

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The Cardinals still have a great offense, most likely the best in the National League if they stay healthy. Of course, that’s a big if with the age and health history of many of their core players, but still.

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That fact makes Zack Greinke’s performance on Saturday all the more impressive. I’m not going to say that Greinke is now going to have a monster season because he had a good start in his first game, but then again, I thought he’d have a monster season before that game anyway. From the bad luck to reports of his new cut fastball to Ryan Braun saying he looks like a man on a mission, it just seems like he’s poised to make a run at the Cy Young. Obviously, you have to hope the Brewers can get him signed as quickly as possible.

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Ryan Braun is still good. This is in no way surprising, and normally, it isn’t even important that he looks good after three games. But in his strange case, the better he does early, the less of a story his suspension saga becomes.

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Corey Hart was obviously the story for the Brewers. Hard to believe up until 10 days ago or so they didn’t even know if he’d be ready to play in the first few series. He’s locked in. He reminds me of Geoff Jenkins in that he tends to get white hot for stretches and carry the offense. That was actually a conversation I had this weekend: Would you take Corey Hart or Geoff Jenkins? Based on my gut feeling, I thought that they probably had very similar numbers. Sure enough, their career numbers are almost identical, and sure enough, Jenkins is on Hart’s to 10 list of similar batters through age 29 at Baseball Reference.

Anyway, it would be swell if he kept up this hitting for a while.

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If Hart is the positive story from this weekend, the bullpen has to be the negative one. I still ask why Marco Estrada was considered a lock for the bullpen entering spring, but other than that, I am not reading into anything at all. I will wait to see how they look against a non-Cardinals offense before I get worried.

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George Kottaras is handsome and hits deep home runs. He also needs to hit higher than 8th when he starts.

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Now for my favorite part of the weekend: the Brewers’ defense. This is one where I’m not trying to get too excited after three games, but it’s clear that Alex Gonzalez is a big upgrade over Yun-E. He needs to be hitting eighth, though. Also, I was encouraged by what I saw from Mat Gamel, although a lot of that is just comparing it to how bad Prince Fielder is.

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Posted in Bullpen, Defense, Handsome George Kottaras, Player Cards

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NL Central Predictions

Posted on April 4, 2012 | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Everybody is spitting out their MLB predictions now that the season is just about underway. I might as well do the same, but I’ll mainly focus on the NL Central. Let’s do this in reverse order of projected standings.

6. Houston Astros

Oh, Astros. How incompetently run you’ve been for years now. Thinking about the ‘Stros and their ridiculous run, I wondered whether it could very well coincide with their horrendous overpayment of Carlos Lee. Sure enough, Baseball Reference tells us that Houston’s record since signing Lee is 365-444, good for a .451 winning percentage. Yeesh. Then I thought, ‘Has Carlos Lee ever played on a good team?’ Answer: Yes, barely. He has in fact played in the playoffs. As a 24 year-old, he played in one playoff series with the White Sox. Still, one playoff series in a 14-year career (and let’s be honest, that’s going to be 1-15 after this year) is pretty rough.

Anyway. Houston is likely on the way back up, now that their incompetent owner is gone. They’re leaving for the AL after this year, which in the long run is likely a good thing for the Brewers–they’ll only have to beat out four other teams to win a division instead of five–but short-term, we’ll miss those Astros. They’ve been good for a bunch of wins lately. Still, they’ll be generous to the rest of the NL Central in their farewell year.

5. Chicago Cubs

It was so much more enjoyable last year when the Cubs had a bad GM, a doofus one-and-done manager, and overpaid veterans who hated playing with each other. Now, it will still be enjoyable because they’ll still be bad, but they’re much less dysfunctional. Jim Hendry is gone. Big Z is gone. Mike “Baseball Etiquette Handbook Editor” Quade is gone. In their place is a much more competent team of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer. They’re rebuilding the smart way. Enjoy the bad Cubs while you can, because they’re likely to be gone within a couple years.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

They’re no longer the laughingstock of the division, which says something, I guess. But it’s still been two decades (!) since they’ve had a winning season. With the Cubs and Astros, I suppose they could luck their way to a .500 record this season, but it isn’t likely. Still, they have some young talent down the line (as opposed to years past), so the the future is sure brighter for them than the past. Plus, the extension they gave Andrew McCutchen is starting to look like a bargain compared to some of these recent deals.

3. Cincinnati Reds

There is quite a bit of Reds love this season, and I don’t get it. I really don’t. Even before Ryan Madsen was lost for the season, I felt this way. They had 79 wins last year. Are the additions of Mat Latos and Sean Marshall supposed to add 11 wins? Because other than that, this is the same team that was below .500 last season. I’m sure they’ll be better, but I don’t see them making the playoffs. Plus, they still have Dusty Baker. Check out the latest Dusty Gem. This time he’s working his magic on Aroldis Chapman, the fireballing phenom who got a six-year contract from the Reds before 2010:

Left-hander Aroldis Chapman is headed back to the Cincinnati Reds‘ injury-depleted bullpen after spending spring training getting ready to be a starter.

Chapman, entering his third season with Cincinnati, had hoped to get back into a starting role after spending most of the last two seasons pitching in relief. Manager Dusty Baker said injuries forced the change in plans on Monday.

“That was a very, very tough decision because Chapman could be one of our best starters or best relievers,” Baker said. “It is a situation where with the injuries that we have, starting out early in the season when the starters are lucky to go five or six innings, we had to shore up our bullpen.”

More:

“This early in the year, the bullpen does a third to half the work,” Baker said. “It only takes one dude to have one bad inning. One dude can have a bad inning and ruin hours of work.”

“And if one dude has one bad inning, all the other cats have to pick up the slack. And that gives us some seriously stressed hombres in our pen. They’ll be all, ‘come at me bro!’”

Honestly, Baker is keeping Chapman out of the rotation but keeping Bronson Arroyo in it. Who knows how Chapman would be as a starter, but it really can’t be worse than Arroyo was last season. He was the only starting pitcher in baseball to be below replacement level. And it wasn’t just -0.2 or -0.3. He was 1.3 wins below replacement level. Poor Reds fans.

2. St. Louis Cardinals

I’ve been going back and forth between the Brewers and Cardinals as division winners, but I settled on the Brewers because I hate the Cardinals.

Nah, just kidding. Not about hating them, but about that being my reason. Obviously the loss of Pujols is huge, but they did a solid job in adding Carlos Beltran. And Pujols leaving is likely good for the team long term. I just still come back to other things that seem likely to hurt them:

1. As much as I hate to admit it, the loss of Tony La Russa hurts the Cardinals. Even though he out-thought himself quite often, he was still the best in-game manager at least in the division.

2. The Cardinals are old. The odds of Berkman, Beltran, Furcal, and Carpenter all staying healthy are very unlikely. It’s actually probably more likely that all four miss time than all four stay healthy all year (even aside from Carpenter, who will already miss at least a month). Other players, like Freese and Holliday, have been injury prone. I expect Wainwright to bounce back after missing 2011, but who knows exactly how good he’ll be?

3. They’re still the Cardinals, and they find ways to squeeze career years out of people all the time. I fully expect Lance Lynn to have the season of a number 2/3 starter. Half joking here, but Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, Jeff Suppan, etc. all did it.

Still, that offense is great, even without Pujols. Whether it’s by winning the division or by winning one of the wildcards, I expect the Cardinals to reach the playoffs.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Call me a homer if you’d like, but I’ll happily explain this pick.

The same pitching staff is returning, and it’s healthy. They were a top rotation by secondary numbers, but bad defense hurt their ERA. They’ve replaced terrible defenders Yuni Betancourt and Prince Fielder. Even though Mat Gamel is a question mark, it’s clear Alex Gonzalez will provide a huge defensive upgrade.

Even though I despise the Aramis Ramirez signing, it should go a long way toward replacing the offense of Prince Fielder for this season, anyway. Casey McGehee was so bad last season that I don’t see why 2012′s Gamel+Ramirez can’t equal 2011′s Fielder+McGehee. This should still be a good offense.

Another reason is health. The Brewers had a remarkably healthy Spring Training, particularly compared to the Reds and Cards. Basically the only injury carrying into the season is Brandon Kintzler, and he was unlikely to make the opening day roster anyway. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are hoping Carpenter is back by May, and the Reds have lost Ryan Madsen for the season. That’s not to say the Brewers couldn’t catch up quickly, but at least they’re off to a healthy start.

Even though I’m picking the Brewers, my guess is they finish with about 89 wins. I’ve been over why I think the Brewers have successfully replaced Prince Fielder, so then why wouldn’t I expect the same win total as last season? Basically, because even though they won 96 games, they weren’t a 96-win team. Their expected win total based on runs scored and allowed (pythagorean record) was 90-72 last season. They definitely had some good luck last season. 90 wins or so is is a better gauge for their talent level, and it’s the level I expect them to play at in 2012.

For what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus has the Cards as the division favorite and a 76.3 percent chance to reach the playoffs. They like the Brewers too, giving them a 61.4 percent chance. Reds? Not as much–45.9 percent. By the way, congrats to the Houston Astros on being the only team with a 0.0 percent chance of reaching the playoffs! Slogan: We won’t be good. It’s a mathematical guarantee.

Elsewhere, ESPN has their “experts’” predictions, and man alive, do they have a lot of them–49 to be exact. Out of those 49 predictions, the NL Central victor was split fairly evenly between the three main teams. 18 picked the Reds, 20 chose the Cardinals, and 11 chose the Brewers to win the division. Five more have the Brewers winning one of (ugh) the wildcard spots. And two bold predictors, David Schoenfield and John Kruk, have the Brewers in the World Series, although both have them losing.

Aside from the relative parity of the NL Central, the thing that jumped out at me about their predictions were the fact that 18 have the Anahem Angels winning the World Series. Gun to my head, I wouldn’t even pick the Angels to make the playoffs.

Another interesting thing is that all of one person did not pick the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central. A bad sign may be that said person is David Schoenfield, he of the Brewers-to-the-World Series prediction.

Anyway, I’ll make my picks for the rest of baseball, just because I feel like doing it.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Rays, Red Sox

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard: Cardinals, Nationals

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Posted in Defense, Major League Baseball, Milwaukee Brewers 2012, Projections