Author Archives: Steve

Time to pile on MLB

Posted by Steve

It’s only been a few hours since the news of Braun’s exoneration broke, and you can already find opinions all over the board. MLB’s representatives came out and immediately shredded the tie-breaking arbitrator, Shyam Das, claiming that Braun was found innocent on a technicality. In turn, several articles either disputing the “technicality” claim, criticizing MLB’s process, or both (like here, here, and here, for example).

Because there’s already so much out there on that, I don’t see the point in repeating it, other than to say if the process is flawed, the sample is therefore flawed. Instead, I want to make a point that I haven’t seen made much tonight for whatever reason: We have still heard nothing from Ryan Braun.

Right? Isn’t that sort of crucial? In about four hours, we’ve gone from celebrating Braun’s innocence to relating his exoneration to O.J.’s (actually saw that on twitter). Remember five freaking months ago, when this first (illegally) came out? How Braun’s only reaction was to call the results “B.S.” and say he was totally innocent? I find it pretty hard to believe he’d be talking so confidently if his only line of defense was that the sample had sat out a couple days. There still has to be some bizarre details to this story that we have not heard. Why else would it have taken so damn long to resolve it?

Adding to the fishiness of this is the fact that the report that the ruling was based not on the test results (huh? how?) and instead just on the storing process of the sample. I say it’s fishy, because it comes from ESPN’s Mark Fainaru-Wada. Of course, Fainaru-Wada is the guy who broke the Braun story five months ago in the first place…. So is he the most credible in this situation? Who’s to say he’s not just trying to defend his own original report? And how could the ruling not be based on the test results, when the handling process could have tainted the results?

I just want to hear what Braun has to say tomorrow. The only twist is that, now, I’m not really sure how much he’ll actually give us. If he would have been suspended, I imagine he’d have given us full detail into his defense in attempt to save some face. Now that he’s off the hook, he might not see that need. I truly hope he does though, because otherwise the naysayers will be that much louder. Plus, selfishly, I’m really curious to know what extenuating circumstances dragged this out so long.

As for MLB…. They’re coming off like morons. This debacle is entirely their fault, yet they’re trying to place the blame all on one person (Das). Let’s go over MLB’s errors, from start to finish:

-Letting the positive test get leaked to ESPN in the first place. It’s crazy to think that all of this, including today’s hoopla, should not be known by any of us!

-Messing up the process with the courier. Again, they didn’t intend for it to happen, but you would think they’d have a backup plan if  “the courier doesn’t realize FedEx is open 24 hours.” They should be embarrassed that even happened, regardless of whether it was the reason the failed test was thrown out.

-Having this stupid appeal process set up in this format in the first place. If you’re going to have a panel of three arbitrators, why would you have one from MLB and one from the players’ union? They’re just going to vote for their side regardless of any evidence; doesn’t that make them faulty in the first place? Have three independent arbitrators decide the case, not just one.

-Breaking confidentiality again tonight! MLB’s Rob Manfred, the arbitrator representing MLB in the case, popped off, saying he “vehemently” disagreed with the ruling and discussing details of the case. Again, this is all before we’ve heard anything from Braun? Manfred, why are you saying anything at all at this point? Again, THIS IS ALL SUPPOSED TO BE CONFIDENTIAL!

MLB made its own bed in this one, and they now have to sleep in it. I have a feeling this will get worse for them before it gets better. It’s been revealed that they were this careless in this instance, so how will players feel about testing in the future? About positive tests that have already come down? For that matter, how credible does the Mitchell Report look right now? Their entire testing process might come under fire. This is a nightmare for a league that claims to have cleaned up its sport.

It seems bonkers that we haven’t had anything other than a generic statement from Braun at this point. I suppose it’s possible that we don’t get anything more than that tomorrow, but I at least want to wait until possibly forming an opinion that he was let off on some sort of technicality.

Ryan Braun wins his appeal

Posted by Steve

Excuse me.

More to come as news comes out. Until then… Think about how many times we’re going to hear that Bud got his Brewers off the hook.

The forgotten pitchers

Posted by Steve

Despite the return of Francisco Rodriguez, I have my doubts that the Brewers’ bullpen will be as good as it was last year. Takashi Saito will certainly be missed, and so will LaTroy Hawkins. In fact, the Brewers are entering Spring Training with only four short relievers who had big league success last season (Axford, K-Rod, Loe, Veras).

This of course means they will need a lot of contribution from guys who didn’t play a role last year. Notice I didn’t necessarily say new pitchers, though. That’s because it’s quite likely that most of that production will be filled by old faces–the likes of Manny Parra, Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers, and Brandon Kintzler. Parra, Rogers, and Kintzler are all coming off surgeries that cost them much or all of 2011, and Braddock is attempting to bounce back from some sleep/personal issues. The (very) early report on all of them is pretty good.

The fact that Rogers, a guy plagued with one injury after another over his career, is even throwing and feeling okay is good news. The former high first round pick is out of options, which means he’ll need to make the team this season. It seems the surgery he had last season for carpal tunnel syndrome was somewhat responsible for his sometimes high walk total, if you believe what Rogers says. If that’s the case, I feel pretty good about Rogers’ chances of becoming a good reliever. He still has great stuff, even after all this time, and I hope the Brewers give him a real shot in the pen. He will miss the first eight games of the season, however, as he finishes a 25-game suspension for a banned supplement. Seems the Brewers can’t get away from that stuff.

Another former starter who will need to be turned reliever is Manny Parra. Parra missed all of last year with shoulder surgery, but it sounds like he’s 100% this Spring. Parra and Rogers are very similar: missed last year due to surgery, former starter, and out of options. For this reason, I consider Parra all but a lock to make the team. If you remember, his last couple years he was being yanked around between starting and relieving, which yielded mixed results. Perhaps finally entering the year with a clear role will be beneficial for him.

Then there’s Zach Braddock, who not very long ago was my favorite Brewers prospect. Braddock had electric stuff, especially for a lefty, coming up through the system and into his rookie year. Then came 2011, which was a mess. Braddock battled off-field issues (which are fruitless to speculate on, in my opinion) that pretty much threw out his entire season. Reading his quotes yesterday, he sounds to me like he’s feeling great and throwing the ball well too. The Brewers basically went all of last season without a lefty reliever. Now it seems like they could have two power lefties out of the bullpen if things go well with Braddock and Parra.

Lastly, there’s Brandon Kintzler. He threw 14 strong innings before falling to injury himself last season. In 2010, he had a phenomenal year between AA and AAA. I expect him to play a role in the bullpen this season, even if he doesn’t make the big league team immediately.

Obviously, the Brewers can’t bank on all four of these pitchers have successful seasons, but if they got strong performances from even two of them, it would go a long way toward matching the production of last year’s bullpen, a huge strength of the team. You figure the locks for the pen are Axford, K-Rod, Veras, Loe, and Marco Estrada (although I’m not personally convinced Estrada should be a lock). That leaves two spots for the four I’ve mentioned, with Rogers being eliminated because of his suspension to start the season. Due to the fact that Parra has no options, I expect him to make the team. That means Kintzler, Braddock, or others such as Frankie de la Cruz, Mike McClendon or Tim Dillard will likely battle it out for one spot. Due to the nature of the long season/inevitable injuries, though, I expect to see most, if not all of these players in Milwaukee at some point in the season.

 

Spring Cleaning

Posted by Steve

As Spring Training gets underway, we’re finally getting a numbers of storylines worth discussing. I’ll be hitting those this week, but before getting into that, I’m working on a bit of housecleaning on the blog.

I’ve added three new blogs to the Blogroll, a new partner, and a couple other features.

First is Disciples of Uecker, a new site with multiple contributors. It’s run by Jim Breen, who you may remember as the guy who broke the story of the Zack Greinke trade last year. He’s also a writer at Fangraphs. It’s a very thorough site with an affinity toward sabermetrics.

Next is The Brewers Bar. It is similar to Disciples of Uecker in that it features multiple writers. It’s one of the oldest Brewer blogs running, as it’s been around since 2006.

There’s Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball. They like to go all “FJM” on bad writers, which I am always on board with.

Finally, we have Miller Park Drunk. With the Brewers’ relative success in the last five or so years, we’ve seen a big increase in Brewers blogs. While many of them are of high quality, it can be difficult at times to find big differences between some of them. That’s not the case with Miller Park Drunk. In the blogroll, I described it as what would happen if TMZ and Deadspin had a baby who liked the Brewers. For example, they just finished an entertaining “Fashion Week.” And no, it’s NSFW.

And finally, I have decided to take the plunge. Keep Turnin’ Up the Heat is trying its hand at twitter. I considered doing this about a year ago, and now that I see that anyone with a blog seems to be on twitter, I decided to finally join the 20teens.

I have no idea how this will go, but I can give you a few things. If you decide to follow us on twitter, you won’t be bombarded with 40 tweets a day (I have actually never tweeted in my life, and really have no idea how it works as of right now). It will also stick pretty much to baseball. There won’t be political tweets, overly personal tweets, or pictures of babies/animals/food. It will be a way to share an interesting article or a singular thought that wouldn’t warrant a full post. Think of a tweet as one thought in a thought cornucopia.

So, yeah.

Priority Number 1: Zack Greinke

Posted by Steve

By this time, you are able to tell for the most part which teams are entering the season as contenders and which ones are in rebuilding mode. The place you don’t want to be, generally, is somewhere in between (Hello Milwaukee Bucks ever since Ray Allen was traded. Wrong sport, but still).

The Brewers, clearly, are a contender this year, especially if Ryan Braun manages to get a full season.

(Allow me a brief sidebar to quickly discuss the Braun saga. I didn’t make this its own post, because there really isn’t anything new to say. My main thought is what I’m sure everyone else has right now: What the hell is taking so long? First we hear that there’s some 25-day time frame in which the arbitrator, Shyam Das (Is that a Batman villain?), has to deliver a verdict. Now yesterday TH reported that he isn’t “technically” bound by that time frame. Again, why the hell is this taking so long? This is a failed test that occurred five months ago! What on Earth could be the reason for this delay?)

Next year may not be so clear. 60% of their starting rotation is set to hit free agency. A full rebuild isn’t likely, with Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and now Aramis Ramirez (ugh) signed for multiple seasons. But if they lose Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum from their rotation, it’s going to be awfully difficult to field a good team.

The Brewers need to make extending Greinke their first priority. Of course, even if they do–and I get the impression they pretty much have–that doesn’t mean a deal gets done. Playing for a winning team seems important to Greinke; it’s why he wanted out of Kansas City, and it could be why he hasn’t signed an extension yet. We’ve already had the obligatory “Zack likes it here” story. It seems like he’d be open to staying in Milwaukee, but who knows.

My guess is he’s going to see how the first half of the season plays out. If the Brewers struggle badly enough that they’re selling off K-Rod, Randy Wolf, Shaun Marcum, or anyone else, I’m sure you can kiss an extension goodbye. If things are going well, though, and they’re over .500 and contending for the division by All-Star Break/trade deadline, it wouldn’t surprise me to see an extension around this time.

A good comparison could be the extension given to Jared Weaver midway through last season. Weaver was set to hit free agency after this year just like Greinke (and Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, for what it’s worth). Instead, he signed a 5 year/$85 million deal, which was widely considered good value for the Angels. I’d be thrilled if the Brewers signed Greinke to that deal. Since he’s now closer to free agency than Weaver was, I doubt they could get him that cheap, but I’d gladly take a 5 year/$90 million deal. And since winning seems to be so important, maybe Greinke only would want to sign a two or three year extension so he can leave if the team doesn’t stay competitive. That type of contract is doubtful, but who knows.

For selfish reasons, I’d love to see him stay. Obviously, I enjoy watching him pitch, but I also love his quotes. He doesn’t use stupid cliches, and he’s usually brutally honest. Take this quote from an article about how the Brewers would move on after Prince Fielder’s departure:

“Last year there were 5-7 offenses in the National League that were better than ours. Our pitching staff is what kind of carried us. It was the bigger part of our year.”

Translation: It’s not like our offense was outstanding last year with Prince. We won 96 games mostly because our pitching was very good.

Prince Fielder signs with Detroit

Posted by Steve

So much for the growing theory that Scott Boras and Prince Fielder overplayed their hand in free agency somehow. Prince got a 9 year/$214 million contract from the Tigers, yet another “mystery team.” That’s one heck of a contract for Prince, and it shows that his gamble to forgo extensions from the Brewers paid off in a big way.

From a Brewer fan perspective, this isn’t a bad thing at all. Obviously him signing with the Cubs or Cardinals would have been worst case scenario, and now he isn’t even in the National League. I don’t really mind the Tigers either way, so I can’t complain.

As far as compensation, it could have been better, but it could have been worse too. The Brewers will receive the 27th pick in the first round. This means they will have the 27th and 28th picks in the first round, along with a pick a few spots later in the supplemental round. This will be the second year in a row the Brewers will have a chance to restock the farm system with some early-ish picks.

This off-season has turned out to be okay, pending the Braun outcome. I still don’t like the Aramis Ramirez deal, but the defense will be improved. Aoki signed (and very cheaply, too). The Brewers probably aren’t the favorite in the division the way I saw it last year, but they should be in the mix. And their farm system, which was just about depleted a year ago, is back on the rise.

To prove I’m not a robot, I will say that it was awesome having Prince on the team, and that there should be no hard feelings from any Brewer fans. I still remember when Prince and Rickie Weeks each hit their first home run in the same game against Minnesota. After hearing about those two as the saviors of the franchise for a few years, that was an awesome moment. Some of his homers down the stretch this past year and in 2009 were pretty memorable, too.

 

Aoki, K-Rod, and others

Posted by Steve

It’s been quite a while since the last post, but that’s really because there has been virtually no Brewers news to discuss. Then all of a sudden, today we were hit with rapid-fire Brewers news.

How about an off-season Cornucopia of Thoughts?

K-Rod
I was pleasantly surprised that he agreed to a base salary of $8 million. I was expecting at least 11. At 8 mil, the Brewers no longer need to trade him. Or if they want to he’ll be easier to trade. My guess is they end up keeping him, because their bullpen is fairly weak without him. I can’t say I’m excited to watch him pitch, though.

Aoki
A possible fallout of the K-Rod deal might very well have been that the Brewers could now afford to sign Norichika Aoki, although I’m guessing this would have happened anyway. Since I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Braun will be out 50 games, I’m happy about this signing (with the caveat that the yet-to-be-revealed salary isn’t insane). Hopefully he will be a competent fill-in for Braun for those 50 games. If nothing else, he will be a nice improvement on defense. In fact, when Hart is playing first on occasion (as Melvin recent admitted he’s planning for), an outfield of Aoki-Gomez-Morgan will be fantastic defensively. Even though two of those guys can’t throw, that outfield will rival Arizona’s or any other as one of the best in baseball because of all the ground they’ll cover. When you consider the Brewers have Alex Gonzalez over Yuni and Aoki over Kotsay, you might come to the conclusion that the defense this year could be much improved.

Mainly though, I’m just hoping Aoki can get on base at a pretty nice clip. The Brewers sorely need some OBP guys with Gomez/Morgan, Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy in the everyday lineup.

Other signings
The Brewers have agreed to terms with Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Carlos Gomez, and Nyjer Morgan on one year deals to avoid arbitration in recent days. When I was projecting the budget, I thought guys like Parra and Loe might be non-tendered. It sure seems like the Brewers will have a larger payroll than I expected; they’ll be pushing $100 million. Pretty crazy considering they were around $40 mil when Mark Attanasio took over the team.

Ryan Braun
This thing is sure dragging out. As I said earlier, I am fully expecting Braun to be out for the first 50 games. I have no idea whether he’s innocent (nobody really does), but my guess is he might be able to save some face in the public eye, but will fall short of overturning his suspension. MLB doesn’t care about intent, so whether there was intent to use a drug as a performance enhancer or not doesn’t really matter.

Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell is joining the Brewers’ front office as a special assistant to the GM. Most everyone seems excited that Counsell is staying in the organization. That’s fine, I guess, but wow is this one of those things that justifies my decision to abandon my pursuit of a job in baseball. Some of my friends have been in Baseball Ops for over five years, are really good at what they do, and are still going year-to-year on low-paying internships. Meanwhile, Craiggers waltzes into a nice cushy job with no front office experience. I’d be much more annoyed if I was still trying to make it, I suppose.

Brewers win posting rights to Japanese center fielder

Posted by Steve

In what has become the off-season of the unexpected, the Brewers have apparently won the posting rights to Norichika Aoki, a center fielder for the Yakult Swallows, for $2.5 million.

I had actually heard a bit about him, but didn’t bother reading any scouting report until this news broke. He’s a center fielder, but it sounds like his arm is pretty weak, so he may be better suited in left. His slash line from 2007 to 2010 is .339/.421/.497/.918, although his numbers, along with the rest of the league, went down last year when they switched to a smaller baseball.

Fangraphs had an article on him a while ago in which he was called the best Japanese hitter since Ichiro. I’d be pretty happy if he was as good as Fukudome, who has a career .361 on-base percentage, but I’m guessing he doesn’t even have that much power. Still, if nothing else, he’s got to be better than Mark Kotsay.

Barring a trade, I’m guessing this means there goes any chance for Caleb Gindl or Logan Schafer this season. Still, this seems like a good move.

The Brewers will have 30 days to negotiate with Aoki. Since the posting fee wasn’t all that much, I’m guessing it won’t be more than 2 or 3 million dollars a year for a couple seasons.

So, it seems like the Brewers have a new 4th/5th outfielder? Probably good insurance if Braun is out.

Here’s some video of Aoki set to something that sounds like it’s straight out of Top Gun.

Better yet, here is the original report of the story, translated from Japanese:

Aoki, the Brewers win the Yakult

Yakult 18, posting system (bidding) parent declared outfielder Aoki Major League aims to transfer using (29) winning baseball team has announced the Brewers.

Yakult was $ 2.5 million bid from Nippon Professional Baseball through the Major Mechanism in 17 days (about 200 million yen) was notified and had to reply and accept the same day. Brewers got a 30-day exclusive negotiating rights.

Headquartered in Milwaukee Brewers are in the area belong to the National League. Played a division title this season.

Through team Aoki, “You have to bid on great teams, I am honored,” commented.

Amazing.

And finally, because I saw this tonight for the first time, here’s video of John Mayer calling a baseball game in Japan.

Cool off-season, Brewers. Not.

Posted by Steve

When the Alex Gonzalez signing broke Friday, I figured I could wait til Monday to post about it. What was going to happen over the weekend, anyway?

So basically, we have the good (Alex Gonzalez signing), the bad (Aramis Ramirez signing), and the ugly (Braun).

It seems silly to talk in depth about Alex Gonzalez, which is what I would have done a few days ago. So for now, I’ll just say that the fact I’m excited about his signing goes to show how truly awful Betancourt was. Gonzalez isn’t a great shortstop by any means. He’s an awful hitter with just as poor OBP skills as Betancourt, or at least almost as poor. The reason I’m excited is because no matter what metric you consult, the consensus is that he’s a good fielding shortstop. That means he’s a fairly significant upgrade, and he was cheap and only for one year. Not bad, all things considered.

Really, this has to be about Braun…. But what is there to even say at this point? Other than this seems like a bizarre case, not too much. At the risk of sounding like a Giants fan defending Barry Bonds, the few details we do have seem so fishy that it sounds like he could be innocent, so I’m fully willing to reserve judgment until more information comes out. Even if he does end up looking to be clean, I am fully expecting him to be suspended. MLB is trying to look tough with their new PED program, and what better way to do that than by making an example of a superstar? Short of proof that some guy spiked Braun’s sample for banging his girlfriend or something, I don’t think MLB will accept his appeal.

One thing that seems hopeful are the reports that it was not a PED, but simply a “banned substance,” whatever that means. That could mean his suspension would be only 25 games, and might save Braun’s public image a bit.

I know I haven’t really said much, but I don’t know that there is much to say about it at this point.

So, let’s talk about Aramis Ramirez. You know, the guy who threw his helmet at my favorite player of all time. The guy who hit a crippling walk-off homer against the Brewers years ago. The guy who has been criticized for laziness, can’t field anymore, and is 34 years old.

The guy who now plays third base for the Brewers. Ugh.

Even putting aside the fact that I don’t like him at all, I hate this signing. I detailed why a couple posts ago, and Ramirez ended up getting even more money that I would have figured. I hate the fact that there’s a third year. Who was Doug Melvin bidding against? Nobody else was even reported to be interested in him. Why a third year? He can’t even play third base right now; I cringe to think of three years from now.

Really, the Brewers acquired yet another first baseman. Their overall disregard for defense is really getting old, as Ramirez is  worse than McGehee at third.

If the Brewers had $36 million or whatever burning a hole in their pocket, I wish they’d have spent it in a place where they didn’t have a viable replacement already. Edwin Jackson to replace Chris Narveson would have been a better use of that money, for example.

So now Taylor Green remains a backup for the next three years. To be honest, they might as well just trade him now. They’d get more value out of him that way.

For what it’s worth, and I’m just rambling now, if Braun is out I’d like to see Ramirez at first, Green at third and Gamel in left during that time.

But anyway. Some good news: as I was typing this, the Brewers traded Casey McGehee to the Pirates for reliever Jose Veras. I’m shocked they got something in return, but I’m glad they won’t be paying 3 million bucks or whatever for McGehee.

So I guess we’re looking at an infield of Ramirez, Gonzalez, Weeks, and Gamel. Probably about average offensively, while still below average defensively. I’d love the infield if it was only going to look like that for a year, but like I said, I don’t want Ramirez for three years.

So, I guess there isn’t too much left for the Brewers. They need to sign a utility infielder–I wouldn’t mind Nick Punto as a good defensive utility player, since Green is an offensive player. They also probably need to trade K-Rod, as their payroll is now over $100 million.

The Brewers, depending on Braun’s status, should still be good next year. My problem is that they could have still been good without overpaying for an aging Aramis Ramirez.

 

Well, crap.

Posted by Steve

Doug Melvin and the Brewers just got bamboozled: Apparently Francisco Rodriguez has decided to accept arbitration.

Goodbye draft picks and a good shortstop. Hello to the most expensive set-up man in baseball.

For the record, I don’t blame Doug Melvin at all. I would have done the exact same thing. I really wanted him to offer K-Rod arbitration. I didn’t think there was any way he’d accept. This is the guy who bitched and moaned during a playoff stretch because he wasn’t getting a chance to close games. There was no way he’d accept arbitration from a team who wouldn’t even use him as a closer. Obviously, he found that the market for closers wasn’t as good as he thought.

This is truly surprising, as Melvin only first mentioned this possibility just the other day. Clearly, he anticipated Rodriguez declining the arby offer.

“That hasn’t really been part of our thinking but it probably should be. Obviously, it would affect what you do in other things but he’d fill a hole that we have right now, too.”

So, what now?

The Brewers have a few options. They could still try to trade K-Rod. A couple years ago, Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration in a similar situation and was traded straight up for reliever Jesse Chavez. The Brewers could hope for something like this, and it’s probably the most desirable outcome.

Another option would be to flat out release him. Arbitration contracts are not guaranteed. He could be released before the end of Spring Training, and the Brewers would only be on the hook for 1/6 of his salary. Considering he made $11.5 million last year, he’ll probably be at around 13 mil, in which case the buyout would be a bit over $2 million. The Brewers released someone in this way a couple years ago… I want to say it was Claudio Vargas. That, of course, was a much smaller penalty since Vargas didn’t make nearly this much.

Here’s hoping the Brewers are able to deal KROD without having to pay much of his salary. Again, I don’t blame Melvin at all, but he gambled and lost. Now they have to deal with it.

To look on the bright side, here’s hoping this development prevents the Brewers from throwing a boatload of cash at Aramis Ramirez. They have even less money to work with now, so they need to focus solely on shortstop. That, or finding someone to take KROD and his @13 million off their hands.