Category Archives: Defense

Aoki, K-Rod, and others

Posted on January 17, 2012 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

It’s been quite a while since the last post, but that’s really because there has been virtually no Brewers news to discuss. Then all of a sudden, today we were hit with rapid-fire Brewers news.

How about an off-season Cornucopia of Thoughts?

K-Rod
I was pleasantly surprised that he agreed to a base salary of $8 million. I was expecting at least 11. At 8 mil, the Brewers no longer need to trade him. Or if they want to he’ll be easier to trade. My guess is they end up keeping him, because their bullpen is fairly weak without him. I can’t say I’m excited to watch him pitch, though.

Aoki
A possible fallout of the K-Rod deal might very well have been that the Brewers could now afford to sign Norichika Aoki, although I’m guessing this would have happened anyway. Since I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Braun will be out 50 games, I’m happy about this signing (with the caveat that the yet-to-be-revealed salary isn’t insane). Hopefully he will be a competent fill-in for Braun for those 50 games. If nothing else, he will be a nice improvement on defense. In fact, when Hart is playing first on occasion (as Melvin recent admitted he’s planning for), an outfield of Aoki-Gomez-Morgan will be fantastic defensively. Even though two of those guys can’t throw, that outfield will rival Arizona’s or any other as one of the best in baseball because of all the ground they’ll cover. When you consider the Brewers have Alex Gonzalez over Yuni and Aoki over Kotsay, you might come to the conclusion that the defense this year could be much improved.

Mainly though, I’m just hoping Aoki can get on base at a pretty nice clip. The Brewers sorely need some OBP guys with Gomez/Morgan, Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy in the everyday lineup.

Other signings
The Brewers have agreed to terms with Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Carlos Gomez, and Nyjer Morgan on one year deals to avoid arbitration in recent days. When I was projecting the budget, I thought guys like Parra and Loe might be non-tendered. It sure seems like the Brewers will have a larger payroll than I expected; they’ll be pushing $100 million. Pretty crazy considering they were around $40 mil when Mark Attanasio took over the team.

Ryan Braun
This thing is sure dragging out. As I said earlier, I am fully expecting Braun to be out for the first 50 games. I have no idea whether he’s innocent (nobody really does), but my guess is he might be able to save some face in the public eye, but will fall short of overturning his suspension. MLB doesn’t care about intent, so whether there was intent to use a drug as a performance enhancer or not doesn’t really matter.

Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell is joining the Brewers’ front office as a special assistant to the GM. Most everyone seems excited that Counsell is staying in the organization. That’s fine, I guess, but wow is this one of those things that justifies my decision to abandon my pursuit of a job in baseball. Some of my friends have been in Baseball Ops for over five years, are really good at what they do, and are still going year-to-year on low-paying internships. Meanwhile, Craiggers waltzes into a nice cushy job with no front office experience. I’d be much more annoyed if I was still trying to make it, I suppose.

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Posted in 2012 Hot Stove, Cornucopia of thoughts, Defense, Transactions

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… And continue to roll

Posted on August 15, 2011 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

The Brewers seemingly cannot lose.

It’s easy to think back to the terrible teams, or even the teams under Ned Yost, and remember how they used to seem to find ways to lose. This team is finding ways to win.

The only aspect of the team that has been great over this incredible run is the pitching. The defense has been just as bad as it has all year, and the offense is up and down. Over their last two games and 19 innings, they’ve scored three runs… And still managed to win both!

They are 19 games over .500 and have a 5-game lead. They have won 16 of 18 games. This is so surreal that I cannot express my many thoughts in one standard post. We’re going to need a cornucopia of thoughts.

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This has gotten me in trouble before, but I’m addicted to Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report. As of Sunday morning, the Brewers had an 87.6% chance to make the playoffs, and it will be even higher after they won Sunday. That’s a big number. We’re approaching the point where if they don’t win the division, it would have to be considered a choke. Maybe it’s not quite there yet, but anything over 90% and then missing is a choke in my book.

It’s worth noting that this streak has pulled them even with the Braves, who lead the wildcard. They’re now tied for the second-best record in the NL. Soon the secondary goal of finishing ahead of the NL West team (and avoiding the Phillies in the first round) will come into play. 

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The starting pitching has been the story all year, and it has been very good lately. However, it’s not like any one starter has been completely dominant–it’s more like they’ve been consistently good, something to the tune of 6-7 innings, 1-3 runs allowed on most nights.

The area that has been dominant, however, is the bullpen. The bullpen has been number 1 in xFIP in the NL in August, and in the last 30 days, it’s 3.28.

John Axford is simply overpowering–he is the best Brewer reliever I can remember. The most important part of the K-Rod trade wasn’t adding K-Rod himself (more on this in a moment); it was bumping down guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Kameron Loe. When you have those guys pitching the sixth and seventh instead of the eighth, your bullpen is going to be in better shape. It’s the deepest pen they’ve had in years, and the haven’t even acquired a lefty reliever yet (fingers crossed). I think the bullpen is the biggest reason for their incredible run the last three weeks.

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K-Rod is a pretty good reliever. That said, I hate watching him pitch. He’s like Claudio Vargas–guys are always on base. You always feel like he’s teetering on the edge of blowing the game. His walk rate is too high, and his strikeout rate isn’t enough to make up for it. 

This isn’t to say he sucks. He’s just not what he was in his early/mid-twenties, and I would love it if Ron Roenicke would stop automatically using him in the eighth inning. In fact, K-Rod is third or fourth on my list of relievers I’d like to see in a high-leverage situation. Takashi Saito has been great lately, and he’s been a superior pitcher to K-Rod the last few seasons–he just doesn’t have the big name. LaTroy Hawkins has done a very good job as well, and when Kameron Loe is used correctly, he’s an asset.

So basically, I just want to see K-Rod utilized for what he is instead of what he was. He was a dominant closer; he is a solid but not great reliever.

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It’s time for the Felipe Lopez experiment to end. It was worth a shot when Rickie Weeks went down, but Flip just doesn’t have the 2009 magic in him. His bat speed is gone, so his laziness on the field isn’t worth it anymore. It’s time to get Taylor Green up. For the love of God, it is time to get Taylor Green up. To be eligible for the playoff roster, he needs to be called up before September. DFA Lopez and call up Green.

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Speaking of Weeks, that studmuffin is already taking ground balls, not even three weeks after that hideous ankle injury. It sound like he may be back ahead of the six-week timetable, which would obviously be a huge lift. It’s incredible that the Brewers have been able to win so much without him, so getting him back ahead of time just seems like a cherry on top of the sundae.

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If I had a nickel for every time someone has said something along the lines of , “Hey Steve, how about your boy Yuni now! You have to eat some crow!” I’d have, like, six nickels. Still, there is sentiment that Yuni is somewhat making up for his abysmal first half.

He isn’t. Hitting for a few weeks won’t make up for the fact that he was one of the five worst regulars in baseball for three months. Secondly, while I’ve never been a fan of his offensive game, that’s always been my secondary concern. To anyone who gives me a little crap about Betancourt, I just point to his defense. It’s still terrible and hurting the team.

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I want more Jerry Hairston! Okay, it’s not like he’s a world-beater, but he’s being used like he’s a right-handed Craig Counsell. He’s currently a better option than what the Brewers have at second base, shortstop, and third when you factor in both offense and defense. Yet, he really only starts against lefties. He also hasn’t played an inning at shortstop, which is incidentally where he should be spending most of his time.

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Tomorrow is a huge day for the Brewers, and it has nothing to do with starting a series against the Dodgers. It is the deadline to sign draft picks. Both of their first round picks, Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley, remain unsigned. All indications are that they will be signed, but it’s still a little unsettling–particularly when you think back to just last year, when they were all set to sign Dylan Covey.

Jed Bradley is the one who is particularly concerning, because the Brewers used the comp pick from Covey to select him. If they don’t sign Bradley, they don’t get another comp pick next year–that pick is lost. No doubt Bradley is using that as leverage, and it’s likely the Brewers will have to pay him more than they’d like because of it.

Still, it will be inexcusable if they don’t sign both of these pitchers. They realize the need to get impact arms in the organization, though, and I’d be very surprised if both do not sign tomorrow.

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Back to the big league team. There is no reason to expect the hot streak to end. Their next four series are against teams under .500, so they should keep rolling. They’ll need to, because the Cardinals also have their next four series against losing teams too.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Defense, Milwaukee Brewers 2011, PLAYOFFS!?!?, The legend of Rickie Weeks and his titanium skeletal system

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Infield Emergency

Posted on July 29, 2011 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I was at the game Wednesday night, so I saw Rickie Weeks’ injury live. I couldn’t even get excited about the game or the win after seeing that. Then I went to a friend’s, where MLB Network was on in the background. They showed the injury. Then they showed it again. Then they showed in from a different, zoomed-in angle. Then, they took to their in-studio diamond where Larry Bowa was apparently showing the right way to step on a base or something. In other words, it was inescapable, and it kept reminding me how doomed the Brewers might be.

Unless something significant happens, that injury may spell the end of the Brewers’ season. The need for infield depth just became an emergency.

The Brewers quickly added Felipe Lopez today in a cash trade, who has the potential to be a decent fill-in. They still need more, though–much more. Eric Farris sure won’t be the answer. More on this after my rant.

<rant>

What on God’s Green Earth does Taylor Green have to do to get called up? At the time of Farris’ call-up, Green had an .957 OPS. Farris’ was .665. What in tarnation?!

There are a few explanations for this, and they’re all dumb. The first is a nightmare scenario: that Green is on the PTBNL list for the K-Rod trade. If that’s the case, I go from liking the deal to hating it. Bullpen help was a ways down the list of the Brewers’ biggest needs, so if they gave up someone who could have helped more than K-Rod this year (and the next six!), I’ll be furious.

Another scenario is that the Brewers dont’ see Green as a second baseman, which Ron Roenicke said today. To that I say: NOW they’re worried about infield defense? They already have the worst infield defense in baseball. Weeks is not a great defender, so even though Green’s natural position is third, it’s worth it to get his bat in the lineup. The offense is a serious concern moving forward without Weeks.

The final scenario is that Green is not on the 40-man roster, so they called up Farris, who was. Again, who cares? Green will be on the 40-man soon enough anyway. He’s their best option at third in the entire organization for the last few months, yet they’re worried about finding a spot on the 40-man. Unreal.

By the way, in case you were wondering how Green responded to once again being snubbed out of a call-up, he had two homers, two walks, a single and a double in last night’s game. It is beyond absurd that he isn’t in Milwaukee at this point.

</rant>

Anywho. Lopez is likely the best option of the ugly, four-headed monster of Craig Counsell/Josh Wilson/Felipe Lopez/Eric Farris, so I’d just as soon give him the majority of starts at second base. But he won’t be nearly enough. They absolutely need one more middle infielder, and really could use two.

They still need a full-time shortstop, and I’m still holding out hope on someone like Clint Barmes, Brendan Ryan, Rafael Furcal, etc. Then, after that, they need a utility infielder who can back up at least 2B/3B, and preferably a SS/2B/3B backup. Barmes and Carroll is ideal, though that will be tough to do and is unlikely.

All I know is the Brewers’ infield needs to look drastically different on Monday than it does right now if I’m going to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs. If I had my druthers (+1), Betancourt, Farris, and one of Wilson/Counsell would be gone by next week.

Doug Melvin will do something, but I’m expecting to be underwhelmed. He’s in a very tough position, but everything he’s said and done to this point in his acceptance of Betancourt and McGehee tells me that he doesn’t see the situation as nearly as dire as it truly is.

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Posted in 2011 Hot Stove, Defense, Milwaukee Brewers 2011, PLAYOFFS!?!?, Transactions, What in tarnation?!@

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Let’s go down to Nashville

Posted on June 8, 2011 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

As well as the Brewers are playing, they have some areas that could certainly be shored up. The bench is terrible. Wil Nieves might be the worst player in the majors. They could use another dependable relief pitcher. Conveniently, pretty much all of that can be improved upon from within the organization.

The Brewers have some players performing very well in AAA. Let’s look at who could, and probably should, be up in Milwaukee.

Mark DiFelice

I’ve been driving the DiFelice Bus for weeks now, and he continues to impress: 19.2 innings, 22 strikeouts, 4 walks (one intentional), two home runs, and a 0.9 WHIP. He sure seems to be the same guy he was before his injury/surgery.

The tough part there is deciding who he’d replace. Nobody’s pitching particularly poorly. My choice is a bit unconventional, but I’d send down Marco Estrada. Not because he’s been bad or anything, but because I think he has more value to the Brewers as a sixth starter than as a fourth or fifth reliever. Call up DiFelice, let him do his thing, and let Estrada get stretched back out for when he’s inevitably needed to make some starts in Milwaukee again.

Taylor Green or Mat Gamel

There’s may only be room for one of them, but for both of these guys to be in Milwaukee while the likes of Mark Kotsay, Craig Counsell, Casey McGehee and Josh Wilson (although I guess he’s wait-and-see with the strangely good start he’s had) sop up at-bats in Milwaukee is ludicrous.

Green is 24 years old without much left to prove in the minor leagues. He’s ready to be an MLB bench player right now. Green is hitting .277/.361/.484 in AAA. Not world-beating, but nice numbers. He plays third and second, and he’d be a clear upgrade defensively from McGehee. McGehee is beyond struggling right now; he’s completely useless. Platooning him with a left-handed hitting Green is too obvious. Plus, McGehee’s big-time struggles are resulting in more Craig Counsell ABs, which is just no longer a good thing–he’s cooked.

If Green doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors, Gamel has proven all there is to prove and more. He’s hitting .306/.383/.517 so far in AAA. His career OPS in AAA is .873, which covers four seasons and 937 plate appearances.

I realize the Brewers are playing him at first to replace Fielder, but he can’t possibly be any worse than McGehee at third even with defense factored in. I’d even be willing to bet Gamel would be a defensive upgrade at this point–McGehee has been that bad defensively. Plus, with interleague games coming up, the Brewers need another solid bat available.

The Brewers need to realize they’re in a pennant race, and make sacrifices accordingly. It makes no sense to go all in on this season by trading a boatload of prospects for Greinke and Marcum, and then not field the best bench possible. Gamel is no longer some young prospect who needs to play every day and develop. He’s 25, and more than likely a finished product. He can manage part-time duty in MLB. Same with Green, who’s 24.

Caleb Gindl

If they aren’t going to call up Gamel, at least call up Caleb Gindl and ship out Mark Kotsay. Gindl is a better defensive outfielder at this point (definitely could handle CF in a pinch better than Kotsay), and is sure to be an upgrade over Kotsay and his .306 slugging percentage. Gindl isn’t setting the world on fire, but his .280/.368/.420 line in AAA translates into a solid enough fifth outfielder–something Kotsay is not.

George Kottaras

It was a baffling move when they sent Kottaras down in favor of Wil Nieves, and it looks even worse today. Nieves is the proud owner of a sparkling .400 (!!!) OPS (Here’s a fun fact: Ten MLB players have on-base percentages higher than Wil Nieves’ OPS).

Meanwhile, George Kottaras is blistering AAA pitching to the tune of a .930 OPS. Their reasoning for Nieves over Kottaras was defense, but Nieves has not looked anything close to impressive defensively. Why not just take the vastly superior offensive player? It makes no sense.

So if you’re counting at home, here are the moves I’d like to see:

  • DFA Nieves, call up Kottaras
  • Send down Estrada, return him to a starting role, and call up DiFelice
  • DFA Kotsay, call up Gamel (Or Gindl, if you’re so insistent on keeping Gamel at 1B in Nashville all year)
  • Call up Green. Corresponding move I could go either way on: either send Wilson down to AAA, or DFA Counsell. I love CC, but he’s pretty clearly done.
These moves would make the Brewers a better team than they are today–perhaps by a significant margin.

 

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Posted in Defense, DiFeliciousness, Milwaukee Brewers 2011, Prospects/Minor Leagues

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Back from hiatus

Posted on March 13, 2011 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Not really sure how this happened, but I managed not to post for a couple weeks. It’s not like there hasn’t been a ton to talk about, so I really have no excuse. If it’s any consolation, I have definitely had baseball on the mind. I’ve been working on setting up a sweet fantasy auction league, and I recently got the New Baseball Prospectus handbook after not getting one the last couple years. I’ll get around to the PECOTA projection post pretty soon, I reckon’.

Where to start? I guess Greinke’s injury is as good a place as any. It’s crappy for sure, but I don’t understand people who are angry at him for playing basketball. It’s not like he was racing a motorcycle or something. If he really only misses three starts, it’s not all that bad. Frustrating, sure, but definitely not the end of the world.

However, injuries are starting to pile up. Aside from Greinke, Mat Gamel, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Jonathan Lucroy, Mark Rogers, Manny Parra and Mitch Stetter all have injuries of varying degrees. None are serious at this point, but the team could certainly be healthier.

At least we aren’t Cardinal fans, because then we’d be pretentious and self-righteous. Also, our ace pitcher would be out for the year, and our best hitter, who also happens to be the best hitter on the planet, has one foot out the door.

On the other hand, I’ve been catching some Brewer games on the radio as much as I can. The other day on my lunch break, Yuniesky Betancourt made an error and misjudged a pop-up in a 20-minute span. Here’s hoping that wasn’t a microcosm for the Brewers’ 2011 season, but I will say that I cannot believe Doug Melvin is truly entering the season with Betancourt as his starting shortstop. He had several opportunities to upgrade with free agents, and he chose not to. Using Betancourt all season will cost them runs, which will cost them games. There’s a reason he’s used as the “bad shortstop” in this amazing FIP video.

Other thoughts:

  • The Brewers are apparently trying to convince us that Carlos Gomez is coming around. Of course, he still hasn’t drawn a walk, so, yeah… Not buying it.
  • On a similar note, doesn’t a strict platoon between Gomez and Chris Dickerson make perfect sense? Dickerson can’t hit lefties. Gomez can’t hit anybody, but he at least hits lefties better than Dickerson. If they stuck to a platoon, they could probably at least approach league average production for CF with good defense.
  • With Greinke out, the Brewers will need to figure out who to use as their fifth starter. They’d probably like that to be Mark Rogers, but after his setback it’s not clear yet whether he’ll be ready. I’m fine with Rogers filling in for the short term, but I really want him to get more time in AAA. As well as he pitched in Milwaukee last September, he still needs to show better control. His 5.6 walks per nine innings in the minors last season is way too high, and he won’t have sustained success in the majors until he improves his control.
  • I am pumped for the return of Mark DiFelice. Big time. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he made the team, but even if he doesn’t, I all but guarantee we’ll see him in Milwaukee for much of this season. If he is close to what he was, the Brewers have the potential for a great bullpen between Axford, Saito, Braddock, DiFelice, and Lowe.
  • Aside from retaining Betancourt as the starting shortstop, the most baffling personnel move to me is the signing of Mark Kotsay. Kotsay is a good OF/1B fill-in with solid defense and a nice left-handed bat… If it’s 2004. That was his last good season. Kotsay has been below replacement level the last two seasons, and hasn’t been solidly above replacement level since 2005! His defense is now horrendous in his advance age, and Bill James is projecting him for a .674 OPS. Giving him a major league contract is a baffling move, and I’m going to yell things if he makes the team over Mat Gamel. Gamel is at worst the sixth best hitter in the organization (I’d argue fourth best) and can’t just get a regular spot.

One more story for tonight, along with the caveat that I will be posting much more frequently from this point on. Last weekend I was out in downtown Milwaukee and randomly ran into some guys from Kansas City. I was dumbfounded by their reason for being here: Since KC has no NBA team, they’re all Bucks fans. They drove to Milwaukee from Kansas City to watch the Bucks! That blew my mind, since the Bucks are so crappy this year.

Anyway, I of course asked if they were Royals fans, and before I knew it, one of them was buying me a beer (not that there’s anything wrong with that) and excitedly talking baseball. They were all huge Royals fans, and really wanted to hear about the players they got in the Greinke trade. I ended up telling them that when their team is really good in a year or two, they will come to hate Ned Yost. Other highlights:

“Greinke is a weird guy. He likes World of Warcraft more than baseball. I guess it doesn’t matter, though, since he’s an awesome pitcher.”

I was met with looks of horror when I mentioned Betancourt. “Thank GOD he’s gone.”

“Rooting against the Royals is like rooting against Special Olympians.”

And finally…

“Nobody is worse than Cardinal fans. They get all offended if you show any bit of emotion, or even enjoyment. Sure they have really nice and knowledgeable fans, but they also have the ones who brag about how nice and knowledgeable they are. I CAN’T STAND Cardinal fans.”

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Posted in Defense, DiFeliciousness, Milwaukee Brewers 2011, Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??

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Remember when the Brewers got Greinke and Marcum? Because that’s still on.

Posted on January 28, 2011 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Nobody is paying much attention to the Brewers right about now. Admittedly, I’ve even been a little caught up in Packer Fever myself. Still, it’s time to remind myself I’m a Brewer fan first. After the fairly lengthy layoff, I think it’s Cornucopia Time.

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The Brewers have clearly made great strides this off-season, but I don’t understand one key thing: it seems they are really going to go into the season with Yuniesky Betancourt as their starting shortstop. This is most likely a horrible idea. I touched on why it’s a horrible idea in an earlier post, and you don’t need to search far and wide to find evidence of him being an all-around bad player.

It’s not like there weren’t better options available. Edgar Renteria would have been worth a flier before he signed with Cincinnati for a reasonable $2.1 million. Even Nick Punto would have been a better option, as he can take a walk and play good defense. Plus, Bill Schroeder’s head would explode due to Counsell/Punto, the scrappiest shortstop platoon of all time.

It won’t surprise me to see Luis Cruz in Milwaukee this season. Cruz isn’t likely to be any better offensively than Betancourt–he put up a .281/.309/.414 line in AAA last year–but he’s a strong defensive shortstop. Still, shortstop looks to be a big problem this season.

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Here’s something kind of funny to think about: the best hitter in the bottom of the Brewers’ lineup on most days will be the pitcher. Think about it. On many days, the Brewers will probably trot out something like Lucroy-Gomez-Betancourt as their 6-7-8 hitters. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo won the Silver Slugger last year, Randy Wolf can hold his own offensively, Greinke apparently considered giving up pitching to become a position player a few years ago, and Marcum is supposed to be a good hitter. As good as the top five in the lineup should be, it could get ugly after that.

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If you’ve been wrapped up in football, you may have missed the most mind-boggling trade in some time. This has to be the worst personnel decision since Ryan Howard’s crippling contract extension. The Angels traded for 32-year-old Vernon Wells and the $86 million left on his contract. The response to this deal is hilarious. Fangraphs has three posts on the trade. They are titled, “The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?” “How Could Wells Earn His Contract?” and “Death Match: The Wells Trade Versus the Zito Contract.” And then there’s my favorite reaction piece: The Orange County Register did a Word Cloud from both a Blue Jays and Angels message board on the deal. It’s simply outstanding. Highlights include “Pearl Harbor” and “Naked Pictures” from the Angels board and “Wowwwww,” “Jedi-like” and “Kiss” from the Blue Jays board.

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I’m getting very nervous about the future of Rickie Weeks. First we hear that long-term extension talks have been temporarily tabled, then we hear the sides are $2.3 million apart in arbitration. The Brewers just made Prince Fielder the highest arbitration-salaried player in MLB history, but Weeks not signing is more noteworthy in my eyes. There’s still plenty of time, but the Brewers need to realize that the time to get a bargain extension on Weeks was before last season. They won’t be able to lowball him now that he’s had a full season and is just a year way from free agency. He’d get a huge contract on the open market, so the Brewers are going to have to give him a big chunk of change if they want him to sign.

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Because I like to end things on a good note whenever possible, here’s a tidbit to warm your heart: Braden “Grimace” Looper is now a Chicago Cub.

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Posted in 2011 Hot Stove, Cornucopia of thoughts, Defense

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Defense Loses Games

Posted on June 9, 2010 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I first want to gloss over this week’s draft. In case you weren’t aware, the Brewers have pitching problems. That’s directly reflected in their draft this season, as four of their first five picks were pitchers. As always, I’ll link to brewerfan.net’s amazing Draft Page, where you’ll find all you need to know about the Brewers’ draft.

The first round pick is a boom or bust type, which frankly is just fine with me. They need to get impact pitchers into their system. High school right-hander Dylan Covey from Pasadena was the first pick. He’s known for his hammer 12-6 curveball, which of course evokes images of Ben Sheets. Of course it’s impossible to know how he’ll turn out, but most of the draft geeks (and I mean that as a compliment) seem pleased with the pick.

I won’t bother saying much else about their draft, because anything you’d want to know is found in the link above.  I’ll just mention that three of their next four picks were college pitchers, so you can see they’re looking to find players who might be able to move quicker through the system. That certainly doesn’t always work out, as last year’s first rounder Eric Arnett was a college pitcher who’s had his struggles so far this season.

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On to the main act. If I asked you what the biggest weakness of the 2010 Brewers is, I’m guessing you’d say starting pitching. That certainly wouldn’t be a bad answer, but believe it or not, it may not be the most accurate. One thing that can make pitching better or worse than it really is is team defense. And by all accounts, the Brewers have terrible team defense.

It’s not something you hear too much about, but it’s true. The numbers don’t lie.

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is something I look at quite a bit. The league average is generally around .300. Certain pitchers are above or below that mark due to pitching style, but league average is around .300. When one pitcher is far above .300 in one season, a lot of times it’s due to luck at least in some margin. But when an entire team of pitchers are well above .300, it’s more than just luck. It means his defense are converting an abnormally low amount of batted balls into outs.

What was the point of that whole song and dance? My point is Brewer pitchers have an incredibly high BABIP–.344, to be exact. That’s dead last in MLB. It’s so high, the second worst team is the Astros–at .330!

Another stat I like, which is fueled by Baseball Info Solutions and Fangraphs, is Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). UZR is the number of runs below or above average a player is in combined factors of range, errors, outfield arm, and double plays.

The Brewers as a team sit at 25.4 runs below average, second only to the Dodgers (-27.3). The worst offenders are Ryan Braun (-9.2, dead last LF), Prince Fielder (-2.7, sixth worst 1B), Corey Hart (-4.3, fifth worst RF), Alcides Escobar (-0.3, ninth worst SS), Rickie Weeks (-4.9, third worst 2B), and Casey McGehee (-4.2, sixth worst third baseman). And no, those rankings are not in the National League… They’re in all of MLB.  If it seems like I named the entire team, it’s because I pretty much did. How about that? Each starting infielder, along with the left and right fielder, are below average fielders! Many are downright bad! Couple that with George Kottaras being unable to throw out anyone, and it’s no wonder the defense is so bad. The only plus defenders on the entire team are likely Craig Counsell and Carlos Gomez!

But wait! There’s more! Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures home runs, strikeouts, and walks allowed. It’s a truer reflection of pitching performance than ERA. The Brewers have an awful team ERA of 5.25, good for third worst in the majors. That would lead one to believe they have terrible pitching, correct? Well, not when you look at FIP. The Brewers’ FIP is 4.41. Still not good, but a heck of a lot better than 5.25. That indicates the Brewers are giving up almost a full run per game more than what they “should” be allowing.  That once again points to a terrible team defense.

Again, the blame here needs to be placed on Doug Melvin and the front office for assembling a team of such poor defenders. Whether it was be design (choosing to ignore the bad defense) or miscalculation (assuming the team would defend better than it has), it’s still his responsibility to field a better defensive team than he has. This is particularly alarming because, as I’ve discussed in the past, team defense has more or less replaced on-base percentage as the new “Moneyball” area in the last couple seasons. It’s reflected in the standings, too. It’s no coincidence that out of the top ten teams in UZR, eight of them are over .500.

A huge emphasis has been put on acquiring pitching, but here’s hoping that team defense, a culprit at least as much to blame as pitching for the struggles this season, is not ignored much longer.

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Posted in Defense, Milwaukee Brewers 2010, MLB Draft

Defense wins games?

Posted on October 2, 2009 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

As recently as five years ago, defense in baseball was not examined half as much as it is now.  Moneyball had recently hit the shelves, and on-base percentage was all the rage.  As you recall, the book described how the A’s willingly sacrificed defensive prowess if a player got on base at a high clip.  It worked for them because many teams had not yet realized the importance of on-base percentage, and they could afford to field a team with a great OBP.  That isn’t the case anymore, and guys with good OBPs no longer come cheap.

A common misconception about Moneyball is that it’s all about slow guys who take walks and hit homers.  That isn’t the case–and that should be obvious if you simply look at the makeup of A’s teams of the last couple seasons.  What Moneyball is really about is determining what skillset is undervalued on the market and spending your limited resources to acquire that skillset cheaply.  When Moneyball was written, that skillset was on-base percentage.  Over the last few years, that has shifted to defense–particularly defensive range.

A great case study for evidence is the new club of our savior and former scouting director, Jack Zduriencik.  Seattle went from being a terrible team to having a winning record in one season, despite slashing $6 million from its payroll.  How did they do it?  Well, Jack Z went out and got himself some guys who can flash the leather.

They let slugger but defensively challenged Raul Ibanez walk in free agency (but offered arbitration and got comp picks).  They added Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, two great defensive outfielders, in trades.  They traded for Jack Wilson, likely the best defensive shortstop in the game, at the trade deadline.  They gave substantial playing time to catcher Rob Johnson, a poor hitter but defensive standout.

Last year the Mariners allowed 811 runs.  This year, with just a few games to go, they have allowed 679 runs.  A gigantic difference, and their starting rotation was largely unchaged.  Most of it is due to improved team defense.

It’s not just Seattle.  This is evident all across the league.  The Angels play Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick up the middle despite their light hitting because they’re good defenders.  Texas moved Michael Young off shortstop and played Elvis Andrus at there all year despite his underdeveloped bat because he’s an elite defender. The Brewers presumably are seriously considering doing the same thing with Alcides Escobar next year.  Even one of B.B.K.T.U.T.H.’s favorite whipping boys, Tony Gwynn Jr., has had positive value due to his defense in center field for the Padres.

Baseball Info Solutions is a leader in defensive analysis.  Their information is used by fangraphs to calculate Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).  Aside from publishing The Fielding Bible, BIS puts out The Bill James Handbook each year.  We were asked to vote for the ten best defenders at each position for the handbook, and I turned mine in yesterday.  Having spent all year watching all the teams, we already had a general idea of who was good.  I also put a significant amount of stock into the information we spent all season gathering–we charted hit locations, which helped determine range, and we awarded Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays to players for every game played by every team this season.

Rather than revealing my entire ballot (why not get the book and see what the seasoned experts had to say?),  I will list a few nuggets.

-The winner of the “Player Steve Likes to Watch More Than Anyone” award goes to Franklin Gutierrez.  He is superb.  I look forward to watching Mariners games because I love watching that guy play defense.  He gets great jumps, takes great routes and has good speed.  Some of the balls he gets to you’d think had no chance of being caught off the bat.

-Other truly outstanding defenders: Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, Jack Wilson, Carl Crawford, Chase Utley.

-Guys who graded out very well who may not yet have the rep as great defenders: Ryan Sweeney, Nyjer Morgan, Brendan Ryan (absolute cannon for an arm), Paul Janish, Kendry Morales, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz.

-Brewers’ best defenders of 2009: Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy, Felipe Lopez.

-Brewer’ worst defenders of 2009: Ryan Braun, Corey Hart.

Ryan Braun is straight up baaaad in left field.  As in one of the three or four worst left fielders in baseball.  What’s interesting is that he has one of the highest good fielding play totals, which goes to show that the eye can be deceiving.  We see Braun make diving and sliding catches and assume he’s good defensively.  In truth, fielders who get better jumps and take better routes get to many of those balls on the run and don’t have to dive or slide, hence no GFP.  I found it interesting to see that many of the outfielders with high GFP totals graded out poorly in range, which backs up this premise.

It will be very interesting to see what the next wave of undervalued skillset in baseball will be.  Just as on-base percentage caught on in a big way, defensive ability is no longer going unnoticed.

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Posted in Defense

Where must the Brewers improve? Part 1: Defense

Posted on October 9, 2007 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Even a casual observer would be able to say that the Brewers’ defense was a huge weakness in 2007. Everyone knows about Ryan Braun’s massive error totals, Rickie Weeks’ shaky play and Prince Fielder’s suspect judgment at first.

But I’m willing to be that most people do not realize just how bad the Brewers’ defense was. In fact, it is my belief that poor defense was more responsible for the Brewers missing the playoffs than any other facet of the game (and yes, that includes managing).

In this post I will try to show just how terrible the Brewers’ defense, primarily their infield defense, was. I’d like to first throw out a disclaimer: quantifying defensive performance is inexact and flawed, but these statistics are far more telling than fielding percentage (which are based on judgment calls by a home-town scorekeeper).

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A quick aside: I was watching the Yankees-Indians game with my dad on Sunday. In the first inning, Jeter charged in on a ball and launched it past first base. The New York scorekeeper inexplicably ruled the play an infield single, even though the throw would have beat the runner to the base by about three steps.

I thought my dad made a great point when he said, “You know, Major League Baseball is a multi-billion dollar industry. You’re telling me that instead of having a home scorekeeper for each team, MLB can’t pay 15 people 70 grand a year to be official MLB scorekeepers? Heck, even pay them 100 grand, what does it matter? They could easily afford it, it would be a great job and it would eliminate home-town scoring biases.”

I can’t believe I never thought of that before, but that just makes too much sense. How has this not happened yet? Someone needs to get Bud on the phone. Ok, back to the show…

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Before I get into defensive stats, I’ll just mention something quickly to illustrate the poor defense in another way: Pitching stats. Here’s how the Brewers pitching staff ranked in the three areas that are completely independent of defense.

Walks Allowed: Fourth fewest

Strikeouts: Third

Home Runs Allowed: Fourth Fewest

Those three stats show that the Brewers overall had a solid pitching staff. Ready for the scary part?

Runs allowed: Ninth

If you want to look on the bright side, it’s that the Brewers’ pitching was better than it seemed. If you wanted to draw a conclusion from this, it’s clearly that the Brewers’ defense has significantly hurt their pitchers.

I’m going to focus on infield defense, since that is where the Brewers were especially poor. There are problems with these stats, which I’ll get into, but they’re more telling than error totals or fielding percentage.

Range Factor

We’ll start with range factor. Range factor is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by number of innings. Here’s how Brewer infielders stacked up.

Ryan Braun: 2.11 (Dead last among MLB third basemen… by a ton, leader is Abraham Nunez at 3.27)
J.J. Hardy: 4.00 (Dead last among MLB shortstops, leader is Troy Tulowitzki at 5.39)
Rickie Weeks: 4.74 (19th out of 24 second basemen who qualified, leader is Ian Kinsler at 5.69)
Prince Fielder: 8.49 (Dead last among MLB first basemen, leader is Lyle Overbay at 10.75)

Problems with range factor: It is affected by pitching (i.e. flyball pitchers giving infielders less chances at putouts than groundball pitchers) and performance of other infielders. Example: Fielder’s low rating is partially because of his fielding, and it’s partially because the rest of the infielders are pretty bad. Also Range Factor does take errors into account, so this number doesn’t strictly speak for the player’s range (if you make an error on a ball it means you reached it, but you don’t get an assist or putout for it).

Another interesting point here: J.J. Hardy is often touted as a good defensive shortstop. This is likely because he is pretty solid on balls he is able to reach. While he generally doesn’t make a ton of errors, his range is actually quite poor (same thing with Derek Jeter, yet how many gold gloves has he won?). The problem with judging by errors is that you can’t make an error on a ball you can’t even get to, or especially, on one you should get to.

Zone Rating

Basically, zone rating considers the percentage of balls a player reaches within his “zone.” There is a thorough explanation of zone rating, including a description of each zone, here.

Braun: .697 (again, by far the worst among MLB third basemen, leader is Pedro Feliz at .852. To reiterate, Braun missed thirty percent of balls hit to his zone.)
Hardy: .797 (20th out of 24 shortstops who qualified, leader is Omar Vizquel at .897)
Weeks: .737 (Dead last among MLB second basemen, leader is Mark Ellis at .887)
Fielder: .813 (17th among 21 first basemen who qualified, leader is Casey Kotchman at .918)

Problems with zone rating: One problem is that zone rating does not factor in defensive shifts; if you watched more than a few Brewer games in 2007 you know that the Brewers employed defensive shifts excessively (perhaps to compensate for poor range?). Another problem is that a player can actually be punished in zone rating for making a play outside of his traditional zone.

There are other measuring tools that are more telling than RF and ZR, such as Ultimate Zone Rating (which measures how many runs a player saves on defense) and Fielding Runs Above Average (which considers outside factors such as ground ball/fly ball ratio, park factors, balls in play). These ratings are difficult to find for each player, however, and Baseball Prospectus’ 2008 manual won’t come out for a few months yet. Finally, defensive metrics are constantly being tweaked and improved.

Conclusion

How-EVAH (Stephen A. Smith style), despite the flaws of these tools, you’d never want your entire infield to be at the bottom of these lists. This pretty much supports the claim that the Brewers have the worst defensive infield in baseball.

Now obviously, you take the good with the bad. Each infielder is above average offensively for his position. Prince is an offensive superstar, and in my opinion, Braun and Weeks will join him shortly (if Braun hasn’t already). Most of the players who top those defensive lists are well below average offensively. I’d also like to add that I definitely prefer good offense and bad defense to the other way around; it’s much more difficult to find good hitting middle infielders than it is to find elite defensive middle infielders.

Solution

My main concern is the defense at third base. Obviously Braun can rake, but his defense just killed the Brewers. He was far and away the worst defensive third baseman in baseball. One likes to think that he’ll get better with time–he’s only played third base for a few years. On the other hand, you wonder how much a player will improve defensively after age 24. Obviously it’s safe to say he probably won’t always be as bad as he was in ’07, but it’s anything but a lock to say Braun will eventually be serviceable defensively.

I did a quick search on some third basemen who struggled early in their career but stuck at third base nonetheless. I looked at their age 23 season, three seasons later and then 2007 to see if we might be able to get some indication of where Braun might be in the future. I would have liked to go back and get a larger sample, especially on players like Wade Boggs and George Brett (both players struggled mightily on defense when they entered the league), but zone rating and range factor really only date back to 2000 or so.

Aramis Ramirez

2001: Range Factor 2.86 Zone Rating .745

2004: Range Factor 2.24 Zone Rating .755

2007: Range Factor 2.87 Zone Rating .780

Adrian Beltre

2002: Range Factor 2.72 Zone Rating .766

2005: Range Factor 2.79 Zone Rating .794

2007: Range Factor 2.87 Zone Rating .766

Garrett Atkins

2005: (He was 25 but this was his first full season at third): Range Factor 2.63 Zone Rating .808

2007: Range Factor 2.20 Zone Rating .722

Miguel Cabrera (only 24 right now so I could only do one year’s difference)

2006: Range Factor 2.56 Zone Rating .748

2007: Range Factor 2.51 Zone Rating .714

Edwin Encarnacion (same as Miggy)

2006: Range Factor 2.62 Zone Rating .741

2007: Range Factor 2.50 Zone Rating .777

David Wright (ditto)

2006: Range Factor 2.60 Zone Rating .754

2007: Range Factor 2.73 Zone Rating .771

There aren’t many that fall into this category, unfortunately, so I wouldn’t really be able to draw much of a conclusion from this. Aramis Ramirez has turned himself into a serviceable defensive third baseman, and the same goes for Adrian Beltre. Atkins actually had a worse year this year than 2005, his first full year at third base. Encarnacion and Wright have improved, but Miggy is still awful. Many of them are still below average today, which doesn’t bode well for Braun either.

I was trying to illustrate a point by doing that, and I guess I kind of did: There is no guarantee that Braun will get better just from gaining experience playing third base. 23 is still young, but as far as skills go, it’s not that young anymore. Another crucial point to make: while some of these players were bad defenders entering the league, none of them came close to being as bad as Braun was in 2007.

The Brewers are in a very tough situation. The only option besides third would be moving Braun to an outfield spot. It’s obviously in the Brewers’ best interest to keep Braun at third base if he can play it; his offense is more valuable there than at a corner outfield position. Thing is, I’m pretty doubtful that Braun will ever be an average defensive third baseman.

My solution would be one that several bf.netters have already suggested. Starting in 2008, I’d move Braun to left field, Bill Hall to third base and Corey Hart to center field. It’s definitely a bold move, and it makes 2007 seem like a waste as far as the Bill Hall to center field experiment is concerned, but it improves two positions defensively.

Hall was understandably shaky in his first year in center, but the bottom line is he was easily last in the MLB in zone rating among center fielders. Meanwhile, Corey Hart was an elite defensive right fielder. And in 34 games in center, Hart rated among the top half of full time center fielders.

Furthermore, Bill Hall was average defensively at third base in 2005 and 2006.

If you’re into math, it looks like this.

Third Base: Bill Hall>Ryan Braun

Center Field: Corey Hart>Bill Hall

Corey Hart>Bill Hall>Ryan Braun

Putting it back into words, instead of a terrible third baseman, a bad center fielder and a great right fielder, you have an okay third baseman, a solid center fielder and an unknown in left field. Offensively, you have an average hitting third baseman in Hall, an above average hitting center fielder in Hart, and probably an above average hitting left fielder in Braun.

Sure you’d love to be able to keep Braun’s great bat at third, but his offense will play at any position. Braun will probably be poor in left field at first, but a team can afford poor defense in left a lot more than it can at third base.  Braun’s a pretty athletic guy as well, so it’s not difficult for me to imagine him becoming a pretty good left fielder.

The downside to this is that Braun goes from an elite offensive third baseman to a good offensive left fielder.  The upside is that the Brewers vastly improve upon their 2007 defense.   To me, the positive outweighs the negative.

The Brewers, in all likelihood, will not make this move.  Doug Melvin drafted Braun as a third baseman, so you can bet he will give Braun time to pan out there.  I fully understand hoping Braun becomes decent at third, but I also think the Brewers need to be realistic.  Keeping Braun at third base will hurt the team in 2008 and is probably a mistake.

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Posted in Defense, Milwaukee Brewers 2007