Category Archives: Milwaukee Brewers 2013

Weeks, Gomez, Segura, and yes, more Yuni

Posted on May 8, 2013 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

I have continued to be a putz and not post nearly as much as I’d have liked to in recent weeks. I still insist that will change shortly, but in the meantime, here’s a post that more or less addresses the hot-button issues of the young 2013 season.

There are really four players that are standing out so far this season, for one reason or another: Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks, and, of course, Yunieski Betancourt.

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Let’s start with Segura. This has been the best-case scenario for the Brewers. He has exceeded even the loftiest expectations to this point. He is tied for Troy Tulowitzki for the best WAR among shortstops. Defensively, he’s been excellent, to the point that you have to wonder what led some scouts to predict he’d eventually need to move to second base. He clearly won’t finish the season with the .914 OPS that he currently sports, especially considering his .368 BABIP, but even finishing at, say, .814 would make him an incredibly valuable player. Even more encouraging is the power he’s shown. He’s slugging .530 with 4 home runs already, showing that he has 10-15 HR potential, if not even higher.

To me, Segura has been the best/most encouraging part of the season to this point. I’ve been critical of some of Melvin’s moves as of late, but the Greinke trade, both to acquire him and then to deal him, seems to have been handled flawlessly. The Angels have to already be kicking themselves (They hit the trifecta: gave up Segura+, didn’t make the playoffs, then didn’t retain Greinke in the off-season), and the potential is there for this to be one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory. And, not to seem like I’m patting myself on the back, but the Brewers seem to have made the correct move in calling him up for the end of last season–a move I endorsed last year.

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Now, to the most surprising player of the season–not just with the Brewers but likely in all of baseball: Carlos Gomez. I loved the Gomez signing (not going to link to two of my old posts in one post, but I did) and I took him in fantasy baseball, yet I’ve still obviously been thrilled and surprised by his production this year. Much like Segura, this is beyond any reasonable expectation. Gomez has been, according to WAR, easily the best player in all of baseball this year.

Gomez made a huge leap forward last season, and so far, has made an even bigger leap this year–obviously, as he’s been an MVP-type player through the first five weeks. Like with Segura, we need to be guarded with our excitement: he has an insane .420 BABIP, compared with a .309 number for his career. Such a huge gap could lead anyone to ask whether this is entirely a fluke.

I contend that it’s not–not entirely, at least. Gomez hasn’t been walking very much still, but he never has. What he has been, though, is more selective at the plate. Unlike Yuni, who has shown no improvement in plate discipline, Gomez has. He’s seeing 3.97 pitches per plate appearance this year, compared to 3.39 last year. It’s obviously a small sample still, but it’s still very encouraging. It’s easy to see why Gomez was once considered a great prospect. He had five tool potential, and he’s shown that so far. At age 27, it’s possible he is just hitting his stride. That’s a very, very exciting thought.

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And now, to the player everyone seems to want to talk about: Rickie Weeks. He makes this list for the exact opposite reason Gomez and Segura do: He’s been very bad. Weeks is hitting .193/.308/.298. People are calling for his head and for Scooter Gennett to get a chance. Fortunately, that won’t be happening anytime soon.

Weeks has been a streaky hitter over his career, and it’s easy to forget how good he can be when he’s going this poorly. But it is interesting to note that this is not the worst slump of his career–not by a long shot, in fact. Last year, for a 58-game stretch, he hit .150/.296/.261.

The cries were there for Weeks to be benched last season at this point as well. If the Brewers had listened, they’d have missed out on some very solid production the rest of the year.

His next 84 games, he hit .280/.358/.495, an elite line for a second baseman.

Look, it isn’t ideal that Weeks goes through stretches like this. But the Brewers gave him a significant contract; they cannot just bench him. That would mean simply eating his contract, and that won’t happen. And they would be foolish to trade him now, when his value is quite low. They have no choice but to let him find his way out of this slump. That will happen eventually. He’s been having bad luck, too–his BABIP is well below his career average.

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Let’s compare this to Yuniesky Betancourt, who simply won’t let me stop talking about him. Yuni improbably leads the Brewers in home runs, and people won’t stop proclaiming what a savior he’s been. Yes, he’s been on a power surge. But aside from a few more home runs than expected, he hasn’t been any different than over his entire career.

I mentioned this recently, but I still keep hearing about how Yuni has “changed his approach” and is “more selective.” Today alone I heard it twice: Tom Haudricourt said on the radio that Yuni is being more patient, and Brian Anderson mentioned the same thing tonight on the TV broadcast.

The numbers simply do not back that up. Betancourt is seeing the fewest pitches per plate appearance in all of baseball! He’s on a hot streak in which he’s just making a bit more contact. The same is basically said in today’s Fangraph’s article on Yuni, titled, Yuniesky Betancourt Hasn’t Changed a Bit.

Here’s my biggest beef with the Yuni love, coupled with the Weeks hate. Now, if you’ve read this blog for a while, you know that I love Weeks and can’t stand Betancourt. But it goes beyond that. The two main narratives seem to be 1) RICKIE WEEKS SUCKS!@!#! and 2) YUNI B IS AWESOME!!#@!!

How about this for a true fact: Rickie Weeks has a higher on-base percentage than Yuniesky Betancourt!

We have Yuni, who’s as hot as he’s ever been, and we have Weeks, who’s close to as cold he’s ever been, and Yuni is still so awful at getting on base that he’s still below Weeks’ OBP. That just shows the inherent difference in value between the two. Weeks has great plate discipline that allows him to get on base even during slumps. Betancourt has awful discipline that prevents him from getting on base even when he’s hot.

I will give Betancourt this: he’s much more difficult to hate when he isn’t playing shortstop. At least half of my hate for him as a player was for his awful, no-range defense at shortstop. He’s much, much more palatable–even valuable–as a utility infielder who never plays shortstop.

So, that just about brings to an end my long-winded post about the Brewers. My goal from now on: Post more often so as to prevent rambling posts in the future.

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All Yuni, All the Time

Posted on April 19, 2013 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I can’t get away from Yuniesky Betancourt.

First, the Brewers signed him, sending me reeling into a .GIF-laden post that had me questioning my fandom. Of course, that post was in jest, but I really hated the idea of having to watch him again. Since then, Aramis Ramirez has gotten injured, sliding Alex Gonzalez to third and Yuni into the starting lineup at first base.

It is possible to find positives out of this: First, he’s not playing shortstop. Approximately 65.7% of my hatred toward Yuni (Yuni the player, not the person–but more on this in a moment) was directed toward his “defense” at shortstop. He is no longer killing the Brewers defensively, playing a much easier position in first base. Second, and most obvious, he’s really been hitting so far.

Naturally, this has led to a lot of people needling me. Even Ron Roenicke is buying into the hype. “He’s more patient than he was before,” Roenicke said. “He sees the off-speed stuff better. Really, he looks like a good offensive player.”

So, has Yuni truly turned a corner? Has he reinvented himself at age 31?

Of course not. In fact, a little research reveals how hilariously off Roenicke’s comments actually were. The “more patient than he was before” Betancourt is actually swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone than he has over his career, according to my old employer Baseball Info Solutions. Same with his overall swing percentage. He is seeing a measly 3.23 pitches per plate appearance in this young season. Among qualified players, Betancourt is seeing the second-fewest pitches in all of the National League!

Now, obviously this is a very small sample size. But it’s the same sample size that Roenicke used to say Yuni looks like a more patient hitter.

So, of course, it’s same old Yuni. He’s still an impatient hitter with decent power and horrible on-base skills. He isn’t doing anything we haven’t seen from him before. He’s gone on hot streaks before; he even had one or two with the Brewers, like in the 2011 playoffs. Eventually, with this same approach, he’ll cool off. Then, it will be back to the same old hacking player.

I do have one other story about Yuni. I went to the game on Wednesday with my girlfriend, her parents, and many of her parents’ friends. When Betancourt hit his home run, my girlfriend’s dad reacted in this way.

“Heyyyy! Who was that? Yuni? YUNI! HEY STEVE, HOW ABOUT YUNI!!!” Then turns to all his friends, who I’ve just met. “Steve HATES Yuni!”

At least I had about five innings left to dig out of that one.

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The Brewers are just trolling us now.

Posted on March 26, 2013 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I got out of work today and checked my phone for the first time in several hours. ‘Hmm, that’s an alarming number of text messages and emails… I wonder whatsohmygod no. Ooohh, no way…. OHMYGOD OOHHHH GOD NOOOOOOOOOOOO!’

Yuniesky Betancourt. I can’t even type it without getting flashbacks. Yuni  is back. On a Major League contract, when he was just released from a minor league contract. Why. Whyyy.

I honestly don’t think I can stomach another year of watching him. He’s a backup, sure. But what if Segura gets out to a slow start? You think Runnin’ Ron won’t start playing Yuni more?

Was it really just two days ago that I was fully at peace with the Brewers likely missing the playoffs? Now I just spent my ride home alternating between bouts of nausea and actual, out-loud-by-myself laughter. Two days ago that I was, more than anything, just looking forward to Brewers baseball again? What the hell happened to Doug Melvin? Can any of this actually be happening?

Honestly, Doug Melvin has to just be trolling us at this point. There is no other explanation.

melvintroll1

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Posted in Dan Running Naked in Public, Milwaukee Brewers 2013, Runnin' Ron Roenicke, Soul crusher

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Mark Attanasio, Kyle Lohse, and Shortsightedness

Posted on March 25, 2013 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

The Brewers’ front office continues to show it prefers year-to-year, patchwork solutions over anything resembling a long-term plan. Their owner meddles in baseball operations to the point that he pushes for acquisitions that are detrimental to the future of the team. It is more important to them to appear like they are making every attempt to win now, every season, than it is to actually do what is best for the long-term health of the franchise.

We saw this least season with their refusal to admit they were not a contender until the 11th hour of the trade deadline. We saw it this off-season with their decision to not shop around veteran players toward the end of their deals. And we saw it today, with their shortsighted signing of Kyle Lohse.

By now you’ve surely heard: the Brewers signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million contract with performance incentives.  To put it another way, the same team that won an average of 78.3 games in PECOTA’s 2013 simulation and had the smallest chance at the playoffs in the NL Central just forfeited a first round draft pick, three years and $33 million on a 34 year-old pitcher.

Short-term, it seems to make sense. The Brewers have young, inexperienced pitching! That same young, inexperienced pitching has struggled in Spring Training! In a world where Spring Training stats matter (unfortunately, that’s not this world), there might seem to be a need.

If the Brewers were around a 85-win team or so on paper, signing Kyle Lohse could be a smart move that could put them over the hump and get them into the playoffs. Problem is, the Brewers aren’t that team. PECOTA at this point actually projects them with the same record as the Cubs and tied for last in the division. Lohse had above average seasons the last two years. His best year was 2012. If we take his WAR of 3.6 from last year and add it to the projected win total, that would put the Brewers at 81.9 wins—still not enough to reach the playoffs. That calculation isn’t foolproof either—if you add Lohse’s WAR, you need to subtract the pitcher he’d be replacing, which likely lessens the team win projection even more.

Essentially, this moves a team that was projected to win around 78 games to a team that is projected to win around 81 games. And for that, they hamstring themselves to another mid-30s pitcher who is somewhat likely to not even pitch to the end of his contract.

There is something that is even more concerning than the Lohse deal itself. Earlier in the off-season, the Brewers tried to land free agent starter Ryan Dempster. The Brewers would only offer him a two-year deal, and he eventually signed with Boston. At the time, Melvin talked of “learning a lesson” with past deals and not wanting to offer a third year. Later, when asked about Lohse, he said giving up a draft pick was a deal-breaker. So what changed?

The season got closer, the pitching looked poor in Spring Training, and the owner panicked.

It’s been widely reported that Mark Attanasio “remained in contact” with Scott Boras over the last few weeks. Why is Attanasio talking with a player agent? That is Doug Melvin’s job.

We know Attanasio was behind the Suppan signing to a degree. Presumably he’s been involved with others as well. And sure, owners should be involved, but he shouldn’t be negotiating the deal.

The Brewers have had a couple of very good seasons in the last handful of years. Sprinkled in between them, however, were some years of failed free agent pitching signings rather than focusing on a long-term plan. A forward-thinking front office might have seen that the Brewers have several key pieces nearing free agency and/or reaching the end of their primes, and that it might be wise to cash in those pieces before they lose value or leave for nothing.

Instead, the Brewers did the opposite. They overpaid by a year and forfeited a draft pick for yet another mid-30s, past-his-prime pitcher, and they gave up a first round pick to do it. Lohse might still be solid this year, but it’s the same story as all the ex-Cardinals pitchers the Brewers sign: his defense behind him won’t be as good as the one last year, and that’s likely to end poorly. Jeff Suppan was 32 when he signed. Randy Wolf was 33. Kyle Lohse is 34. That is not trending in the right direction. I could say more about Lohse and what he’s expected to do, but I almost think that’s for another post. My focus here is on the Brewers’ overall philosophy.

In his presser, Doug Melvin just said, “This signing makes us a better club than we were yesterday.” This perfectly illustrates the problems with the current makeup of the front office. Lohse would have made the Astros better too. That doesn’t mean it would make sense for them to sign him.

Here’s what you can see coming a mile away: The Brewers will be around .500, maybe even a few games below, and rather than selling, they’ll make a deal for a reliever, or a #4 -type starter, still miss the playoffs, and start the cycle all over again

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Posted in 2013 Hot Stove, Milwaukee Brewers 2013, Transactions

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Carlos Gomez extension: Smart move, good value

Posted on March 13, 2013 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

The Brewers made a bit of a surprise move today with an extension of center fielder Carlos Gomez, reportedly for 4 years/$27.5 million. It actually replaces his contract for this season, meaning it’s essentially a three-year extension for $24 million. Considering Gomez was entering his final year before free agency, I’m surprised the Brewers were able to get him this cheaply.

Gomez was a valuable player, even in a platoon role, the last few years–mainly because of his defense and baserunning. Last year, though, he put together an offensive season that people envisioned years ago when Gomez was a highly regarded prospect. He set career-highs in batting average (.260), on-base percentage (.305), and slugging percentage (.463). While those first two numbers aren’t all that impressive, the slugging percentage is. And when it’s combined with Gomez’s defense in a crucial position, it makes for a valuable player: His WAR of 3.5 was 11th in baseball among center fielders, and he had far fewer plate appearances than any of the others in the top ten.

Gomez is still only 27, so there is good reason to believe his performance can match, and possibly even exceed, his performance last season. He will never be a good on-base player, or even a decent one most likely. However, playing one of the most important positions makes that more palatable.

If there is anyone saying the Brewers spent too much on Gomez at $8 mil a year, I’d ask what the Brewers could have gotten for that money instead. Michael Bourn just signed for 4/$48 mil. B.J. Upton was below Gomez in WAR last year, and he just signed for 5/$75! Fangraphs had Gomez worth $9 million in 2012, and $15 million in 2013. If he’d had another year like last year in 2013, he’d probably double his value to $50 mil or so on the open market. He might earn his contract over the next four years on just defense alone.

The Brewers do have some fairly promising young outfielders coming up in Logan Schafer, Caleb Gindl, and Khris Davis. None of them, however, are nearly as highly regarded as Gomez was. Davis and Gindl are really only corner outfielders, and there’s nothing wrong with using Schafer as a 4th outfielder or in a soft platoon with Gomez.

It’s kind of funny to think back to a few years ago, when the general reaction of Brewers fans to the J.J. Hardy-for-Gomez trade was disappointment. Here’s what I wrote in 2009 when the trade went down. I actually didn’t pan the trade, which I wasn’t sure of myself until I went back and looked (the most painful part of that post by far is when I mentioned Mat Gamel having a lot of trade value. Oof.). Both players have had some success since the trade, although it is interesting that Gomez got the larger contract extension.

Whether the Brewers are contenders or not, this is a good move. They have a good player signed through his prime, and it’s inexpensive enough that it will be tradeable down the road if necessary.

In honor of this contract let’s watch a couple Carlos Gomez GIFs. One flattering, one not so much, but both awesome.

 

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Catching Up

Posted on February 19, 2013 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

After a hiatus, there are a number of things to write about. To cover some of what we’ve  missed, let’s roll out a Pitchers and Catchers Report Cornucopia of Thoughts (#ThoughtCornucopia).

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I might as well address the Ryan Braun thing first, even though I’m already tired of it. All I know is that we don’t know if Braun has used anything, and I’m plenty annoyed by people acting like they do (either way). All I know is the only “evidence” to prove him guilty is two pieces of handwritten notes. Additionally, articles like this exist.

It’s my personal opinion that a sizeable percentage of MLB players are using some sort of PED, and it’s become hard for me to care too much. My problem is the double standard that exists. Todd Helton and Tony La Russa get DUIs, something that literally endangers the lives of others, and they can still be seen as “great baseball guys” or better yet, “great guys.” Just watch Todd Helton this season. He won’t be booed at opposing parks, yet Ryan Braun will be skewered. And I’m not saying Todd Helton necessarily deserves to be booed—just trying to illustrate this strange hatred of PEDs.

A quick Google search reveals several writers mentioning Braun and Helton in the same article, and even a Baseball Nation article titled “Todd Helton’s arrest and Ryan Braun’s involvement with Biogenesis.” Might as well have been “Poker tips and the mating rituals of lemurs.” They’re just as similar, and I’m equally uninterested in reading both articles.

Same thing with the BBWA voting nobody into the HOF despite many deserving candidates. Will Tony La Russa have any trouble whatsoever getting into the HOF? Of course not, even though what he did was more harmful, dangerous, and reckless than using PEDs.

The same goes for the crazy double standard that victimizes baseball. The NFL has incredibly lenient testing, while baseball uses freaking blood tests. Yet which sport is seen as having a substance abuse problem?

Anyway, this ended up being less about Braun and more about baseball in general. Hopefully he can avoid a suspension.

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The news of the day is the re-tear of Mat Gamel’s surgically repaired ACL. You have to feel awful for Gamel, but to be honest, it’s likely that this is not a huge loss. The two options that might seem the most obvious are to either let Taylor Green, Hunter Morris, or Khris Davis have the first base job while Corey Hart is out. I have supported letting Taylor Green play third and moving Aramis Ramirez to first base in the past, but I don’t see that happening for two reasons: One, Corey Hart should be back by mid-May (don’t see them moving Ramirez for just six weeks), and two, the Brewers just don’t seem to like Taylor Green that much.

I think it’s more likely that we see Alex Gonzalez play first, which is not a pretty thought. Gonzalez as a shortstop is just fine and dandy, but certainly not as a first baseman.

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Meanwhile, the Brewers ended up not signing a starting pitcher. While I am a bit surprised, I am not disappointed. If the choice came to either no free agent SPs or three years for Ryan Dempster, I’m fine with no free agents.

The Brewers did make a couple nice, low-risk signings in lefty relievers Tom Gorzelanny and Mike Gonzalez, but relievers are not the difference makers that starters are.

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This all goes to my last post, which still holds true a couple months later. The Brewers are very likely not making the playoffs this year. The fact that they are now down to their third string first basemen (and we aren’t even sure who that is yet) doesn’t make me feel any better than I did a couple months ago. PECOTA projects the Brewers for a 79-83 record and an 18.3% chance of making the playoffs. That sounds about right to me, and in fact, I’d say they have a greater chance of finishing last than first. The awful Houston Astros added a few wins to the Brewers’ record last year, but without them in the division there shouldn’t be a truly awful team in the NL Central (I actually kind of like the Cubs’ starting rotation).

Just because I do not have the same optimism that I had the last couple years at this time doesn’t mean there isn’t much to look forward to this season. I am anxious to see how some of the young starting pitchers do, I am excited for Jean Segura, and I have hope that Carlos Gomez can build on a career year. And if they are struggling, the trade deadline should be an exciting time. Gomez, Nori Aoki, Ramirez, Corey Hart, and a number of others would all be candidates to be traded.

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And finally, just because I don’t want this to seem entirely negative, I’m a big fan of the fan-designed uniforms the Brewers will be wearing in Spring Training. The hats are okay, but the uniforms are pretty slick in my opinion. I really like the idea of combining the old logos with the more current colors, which is what I was hoping the Brewers would do a few years ago when they introduced the current retro unis instead.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Milwaukee Brewers 2013, Projections

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Should the Brewers just rebuild?

Posted on December 13, 2012 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

While the Cubs, Reds, and much of the rest of baseball has been wheeling and dealing, the Brewers have done a whole lotta standing around on the sidelines. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though.

No part of me wishes the Brewers had matched or exceeded the two-year, $26.5 million contract the Red Sox just gave Ryan Dempster, and I’m glad Doug Melvin has stuck to his recently stated “no three-year contracts for non-excellent free agents” rule. Dempster is 35, so anything more than two years is asking for trouble.

Some of the other players I mentioned as potential Brewers targets have signed elsewhere, such as Dan Haren, Brandon McCarthy, and Joe Blanton. Relievers Jason Grilli Koji Uehara have also signed with other clubs, although Mike Adam is said to be signing soon (the Brewers were rumored to be interested).

Like I said, I don’t have any problem with the Brewers not wanting a repeat of Jeff Suppan or even to a (much) lesser extent, Randy Wolf, but if they aren’t going to add another starting pitcher through free agency, what are they going to do?

Without any additions to the starting rotation, the Brewers are likely not going to be good enough to overtake the Reds, and probably the Cardinals as well. If the Brewers don’t add another starter who’s at least league average, it’s very likely they’ll find themselves in the middle of the pack, which is not a good place for a team to be.

If the pitching was better, the Brewers would be contenders, and if the offense was worse, they’d be sellers. But neither one is the case, so where do they go? The division was winnable last year, but it seems less so with all of the Reds’ upgrades. Might the Brewers’ best course be to reload and sell off pieces, such as Corey Hart, Aramis Ramirez, and possibly even Yovani Gallardo and Rickie Weeks?

It seems crazy, but let’s look closer. A full firesale could bring the next wave of players that could bring cost-efficient production. They could target MLB ready players, like they did in Jean Segura. Unlike years past, the Brewers have young, near-MLB ready pitching, so they could target position players if they have a firesale.

The problem with that, though, is the presence of Ryan Braun. You know he wouldn’t be happy about a firesale, and it seems foolish to waste the next couple years of his prime.

It’s tough to say which direction is the right one, but I’m starting to think the Brewers would be better off rebuilding. For sure, I’d rather have them take that direction than enter the season with Yovani Gallardo and four unproven starters. Ideally, they’d find a way to add another impact starter and take their run at the playoffs, but that’s just starting to look unlikely. Hart and Ramirez have good value currently, possibly as high as it will get. The best move might be to cash them in and look to speed up the retooling process.

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