Category Archives: Prospects/Minor Leagues

New leadoff hitter

Posted on July 19, 2009 by | 7 Comments

Posted by Steve

Here I was, well into a post about Roy Halladay when the Brewers so rudely interrupted with a trade.  They have just acquired Arizona second baseman Felipe Lopez for AAA outfielder Cole Gillespie and A reliever Roque Mercedes.

Lopez is a solid player, and I expect him to be the full time second baseman the rest of the year and also hit leadoff.  He plays good defense at second, short and third, and has good average and OBP skills.  He’s hitting .305/.368/.416 this season.  The best part: Lopez is a free agent at the end of the year, which means second base will still belong to Rickie Weeks next season.  Lopez is also likely to be a Type B free agent, which means the Brewers will get a compensation pick for him.

I’ve always had a soft spot for Cole Gillespie.  I went to the College World Series and saw him play for Oregon State just a couple weeks after the Brewers drafted him.  I’ve followed him pretty closely as he made his way up the minor league ranks.  He has decent speed, good on base skills and some pop.  It’s pretty clear that he’ll be a major leaguer before long, but once I remove myself from my fanboy-dom for Gillespie, I can’t say he profiles as much more than a fourth outfielder.  The pick the Brewers will get for Lopez has a good chance to be a similar caliber of player.

If I had to guess the corresponding roster move, I’d guess Mat Gamel will be optioned back to AAA to get regular playing time.  My preference is to see Gamel playing nearly every day at third, but since it seems Ken Macha simply won’t do that, I’d rather see him playing every day in Nashville than burning up service time warming the bench.  Lopez will play second and lead off, while McGehee and Counsell will likely handle third.  Counsell has done a good job this season, but I don’t mind giving his knees more of a rest.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009, Prospects/Minor Leagues, Transactions

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June Call-ups

Posted on June 7, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I’m very much looking forward to today’s game, even though I’m guessing the Brewers won’t win.  That’s because the Crew will be facing Tommy Hanson, one of the best pitching prospects in the game.  His numbers in AAA this year are downright stupid.  It’s like a video game: 66.1 innings, 1.49 ERA, 17 walks, 40 hits, 90 (!!!) strikeouts.

I was talking with a friend the other day, and we were discussing how the end of May/June has become the time for top prospects to come to the big leagues over the past couple years.  There are certain evens I really look forward to in a baseball season (opening day, MLB draft, trade deadline) but the “June Call-ups” have definitely been added to my list.

I don’t have any proof of this, but it just seems to me that there have been more big names called up this year than in the past.  This is just off the top of my head, but here are some stud prospects who have debuted over the last few weeks: Matt Wieters (Orioles), Matt LaPorta (Indians), Gordon Beckham (White Sox), Mat Gamel (duh), Reid Brignac (Rays), David Price (first MLB start, anyway–Rays), Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Rick Porcello (Tigers), Jordan Zimmerman (Nationals), Daniel Bard (Red Sox), Gerardo Parra (Diamondbacks), Fernando Martinex (Mets).

I went to an Orioles game with some guys from work.  We had planned it a few weeks in advance, and it randomly ended up being Wieters’ MLB debut.  That was pretty cool… It was definitely Wieters Mania at Camden Yards (which is a great stadium, by the by).  Wieters is Baseball America’s number one prospect.  Now today I’ll get to score the game for Hanson’s debut, so I’ve had some pretty good luck lately.  Hanson is the number four prospect according to BA.  In case you’re wondering, four Brewers make BA’s top 100: Alcides Escobar (19), Mat Gamel (34), Brett Lawrie (81) and Jeremy Jeffress (100).

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Posted in Prospects/Minor Leagues

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Looking back at the 2005 Draft

Posted on May 30, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

The draft is just a few days away, so I’ve been reading up on draft stuff.  Along the way I looked back at the 2005 draft, which could go down as one of the greatest drafts in MLB history, at least as far as first rounds are concerned.  The 2005 Draft was probably the most I’ve ever followed a draft.  I remember watching it online, praying there was some way Alex Gordon might fall to the Brewers at number five.  Pretty funny to think about now, considering Braun should go down as the best or second best player from this draft.  Here’s a glance at some of the players taken in the first round.

1.  Justin Upton

2. Alex Gordon

3. Jeff Clement

4. Ryan Zimmerman

5. Ryan Braun

Might as well pause right here for a minute.  Wow, look at that top five!  It seems likely that at least three of those players will be/are superstars.  Braun is already there.  If Zimmerman isn’t, he should be soon–I’d choose him as the starting NL third baseman.  Justin Upton is having his breakout season and is still only 21–he could be a transcendent hitter.  Alex Gordon is the only one you could call mildly disappointing, and he still seems like he’ll be a good hitter.  Jeff Clement is still Seattle’s number one prospect and was Baseball America’s number 48 prospect in baseball.  He’s owning AAA.  I imagine he’ll be up in Seattle this season.  

That’s an outstanding top five, but take a look at the other good/useful players to come out of the first round.

6. Ricky Romero

7. Troy Tulowitzki

9. Michael Pelfrey

10. Cameron Maybin

11. Andrew McCutchen

12. Jay Bruce

13. Brandon Snyder (Blowing up in AA this year)

15. Lance Broadway

16. Chris Volstad

21. Cliff Pennington

23. Jacoby Ellsbury

25. Matt Garza

27. Joey Devine

That’s 18 players right there, and there are a few more who could still regain prospect status or become solid big leaguers.    That’s pretty incredible.

Aside from being a great first round for MLB, it was undoubtedly an A+ for Jack Z and the Brewers.  Take a look at the players the Brewers drafted in 2005.  Keep in mind GMs and scouting directors often say a successful draft is one that yields one good MLB player, and anything more than two is considered a great draft.

Round 1: Ryan Braun

What more to say here?  Braun will be an MVP candidate the next several years.  The Brewers lucked out a bit here.  If the 2005 draft was re-picked, Braun would probably be the first pick overall, so having him fall to fifth was fortunate.  It’s also unlikely that the Brewers would have taken him with the top pick at the time, so like I said, luck had a hand it it.

Round 3 (No round 2 choice): Will Inman

Interesting that Will Inman has plateaued since being traded to the Padres for Scott Linebrink.  While Linebrink wasn’t anything great, he brought two comp picks.  You could argue the Brewers traded Inman at the perfect time, as his value was peaked as the Brewers number two pitching prospect behind Yo Gallardo at the time of the trade.

Round 4: Mat Gamel

Brewerfan Power 50 Ranking: 1

Pretty incredible that the Brewers could get Mat Gamel and Ryan Braun in the same draft.  Regardless of his position, Gamel will be an impact hitter.

Round 7: Michael Brantley

Brantley was another great pick.  He profiled as a future leadoff hitter for the Brewers before being included as the second big piece in the CC Sabathia deal.  He was a top 10 prospect in the Brewers’ system at the time of the trade.

Round 8: Jemile Weeks

It’s too bad they couldn’t get Rickie’s little brother signed, but as far as talent, they got great value in this pick.  Weeks played college ball at Miami for three years and turned himself into a first round pick for Oakland last year.

Round 18: Zach Braddock

Brewerfan Power 50 Ranking: 10

Braddock is the number two pitching prospect in the Brewers’ system, and the way things are going for Jeffress this season, Braddock might move up to number one pretty soon.  He’s been limited to only 12 and a third innings this season, but he has 22 strikeouts and two walks.

Round 25: Taylor Green

Brewerfan Power 50 Ranking: 8

Cleveland had the choice of either Brantley or Green as the PTBNL in the Sabathia trade, and they chose Brantley.  Green would have been equally tough to lose.  He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he is a good contact hitter with a patient eye.  He will very likely be a major leaguer.

That’s seven players who either seem likely to be solid major leaguers (and obviously more in some cases) or helped the Brewers add value in a trade.  Pretty amazing.

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Posted in MLB Draft, Prospects/Minor Leagues

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The Fanboy Curse

Posted on May 18, 2009 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

I’m becoming convinced that something about me is dangerous.  Like any Brewer fan, I like most of the players.  There are, however, some who I like a lot more than most fans.  For years my favorite player has been Ben Sheets, who has to be one of the unluckiest players in the game.  For the last several years he has been plagued by some of the most obscure ailments: a herniated disc, vestibular neuritis, a torn lat, blisters, a groin strain, an inflamed finger ligament.  Finally the big blow came in the form of shoulder surgery.  Through all of that I stood up for Sheets when those ailments clouded the fact that whenever he was healthy he was elite.

If you’ve been here before, you know another player I like a lot more than most is Rickie Weeks.  Weeks has had his struggles ever since the Brewers rushed him to the majors, both offensively and defensively.  I stood by his potential and stayed patient, always feeling he’d become a good player.  Over the years he has battled wrist and thumb injuries.  A few weeks ago he was hit in the face with a 94 mph fastball.  Yesterday, he injured his wrist again.  There is still no word on the severity of the injury, but he already left St. Louis to get it checked out.  If this is serious, it’s incredibly frustrating.  He was on his way to a very good season; he even had a decent shot at the All-Star Game if he kept it up.  I’m still hoping this was precautionary, but a 15-day DL stint at minimum seems likely.  I don’t see why they’d have immediately sent him to get it checked if it wasn’t at least that serious.

If I was Mark DiFelice, I’d stay away from cutlery, lawn mowers, ovens, salad tongs, etc. as much as possible.

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Speaking of DiFelice, word is starting to get out around the Major Leagues.  Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports has a great article on DiFelice out today.  His quote is my favorite part:

“There’s something to say for how slow I throw,” DiFelice said. “Guys hate hitting against me, because they wonder if I’m going to throw anything else, if I’ve got something up my sleeve. Nope. Sorry.”

Love it!  I also love the exchange with Edinson Volquez.

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We had GamelWatch, but there is no need for EscobarWatch for the Brewers’ supposed top prospect.  Escobar is off to a very slow start at AAA, with an OPS of .677.  This reiterates how foolish it would have been to trade Hardy and hand the shortstop position to Escobar without having him earn it first.  Escobar would have been an automatic out in the lineup (i.e. Jason Kendall at best) if he was in Milwaukee to start the year.  He’s still young, and Hardy is still under contract through next season, so there’s absolutely nothing wrong with giving Escobar at least a full season in AAA.

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Might as well at least mention that the first place Brewers are absolutely on fire, huh?  A sweep of St. Louis tonight would be outstanding.  Ever since their whining last year about the Brewers’ having the audacity to untuck their jerseys after a win, beating the guardians of baseball etiquette has been at least as enjoyable as beating the Cubs.  The self-proclaimed “best fans in baseball” who can’t even sell out a Saturday game against the team they share first place with need to get over themselves.  It was suggested at brewerfan that Brian and Bill untuck their shirts for the postgame today if the Brewers win.  I wholeheartedly support this.  Let’s make it two sweeps in a row!

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I should know better than to even look at PECOTA’s playoff odds at this point after the Brewers’ collapses the last few years, but I simply can’t help myself.  Currently PECOTA gives the Crew a 58.6 % chance at making the playoffs, compared to 62% for the Cubs.  I believe they only gave the Brewers around a 25% chance at the start of the season, but they are currently projecting 93 wins.  And that’s all I’m going to say about that at this point. 

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, DiFeliciousness, Milwaukee Brewers 2009, Projections, Prospects/Minor Leagues, The legend of Rickie Weeks and his titanium skeletal system

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The end of GamelWatch

Posted on May 13, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

GamelWatch

GamelWatch!

GamelWatch seems to be over before it really even got steam.  Tom Haudricourt reports on his blog that the Brewers have called up Mat Gamel from AAA Nashville.  The timing of this is a bit odd, because the Hall/Counsell platoon at third base has been performing at a high level, both offensively and defensively.  Until Counsell cools off, I don’t see Gamel getting many starts at third.  Before you accuse me of insanity that would be keeping Gamel on the bench for Craig Counsell, I want to point out that the Brewers would lose a lot defensively right now going from Hall/Counsell to Gamel.  A Gamel/Hall platoon the rest of the year sounds mighty tempting, but Gamel’s defensive problems may make that a poor decision at this point.

I’m very curious to see how the Brewers plan on using him.  My guess is some might be a little disappointed in how little playing time he actually gets.  They may end up using him the way the Brewers first used Prince Fielder when Lyle Overbay was still manning first base: As a DH in interleague play and the top pinch hitter, with a rare start sprinkled in.  He may even only be up until the first round of interleague play is over, go back down to AAA and take regular starts again at third for awhile.

The Brewers are in Minnesota next week, so I expect Gamel to be in the lineup each game of that series.  If nothing else, it will be just a smidge better than their DH at times last season.  I think this is more a testament to how unhappy the Brewers are with the production of guys like Casey McGehee and Brad Nelson than Bill Hall or Craig Counsell.  The Brewers also just signed veteran lefthanded hitter Frank Catalanotto to a minor league contract, which presumably puts Nelson even more on the hot seat.  It would be a shame to see him waived, but that might be the move that’s made after tonight’s game.

Despite the issue of how to use Gamel, this is a good problem to have.  The Brewers are spoiling us, because it seems like every year or two for the last several years they’re adding a stud prospect to the big league club (Hardy, Hart, Weeks, Fielder, Gallardo, Braun, Gamel).  Having Gamel’s bat in the lineup with semi-regularity makes the Brewers’ already good offense that much more dangerous.  This is definitely an exciting move.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2009, Prospects/Minor Leagues

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The City of Brotherly Love

Posted on April 21, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Been a few days since I checked in.  I haven’t been able to watch each game, but I’ve followed them as much as I could and was able to watch most of Sunday’s game.

The main topic of conversation the last couple days has been Todd Coffey.  He’s been good so far, but it seems some people are overreacting a bit.  That game on Sunday took quite a bit of luck to pull out the win, particularly the line shot to Hall for a double play.  Nine innings isn’t enough to tell anything, but if Coffey is going to continue at a high level he’ll probably need to increase his strikeouts.  He’s already helped the Brewers quite a bit so far, but I’m not even ready to count on him as a prominent reliever yet.  I’m not ruling that out, but nothing he’s shown throughout his career suggests he will keep this up.

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It’s been a pretty frustrating start, but what I’m most excited about is Corey Hart’s approach at the plate.  In 657 plate appearances last year, he drew 27 walks.  This year he has eight walks after 53 plate appearances.  That patience has led to a .385 OBP so far.  If he keeps this patience up he’ll be able to replicate 2007.

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It’s officially time for GamelWatch 2009.  Mat Gamel is off to a white hot start in AAA.  He’s hitting .436… That’s his batting average!  The Brewers will have a very difficult decision to make if he keeps mashing.  His left handed bat would bring some much-needed balance to the Brewers’ lineup.  A Gamel/Hall platoon would look great at third, and it would allow Hall to go back to his supersub role on a part time basis.

Unfortunately, Gamel’s defense is still a big issue.  It’s very reminiscent of Braun a couple years ago when he was destroying AAA pitching yet playing a brutal third base.  In the past the Brewers have called up their defensive-challenged prospects to get a good bat in their lineup.  They seemed committed to giving Gamel a full year at third in Nashville before calling him up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things change.

The Brewers are not a rebuilding team, which means the bottom line this year is about winning.  If they think Gamel improves the team (which would mean his offensive boost would outweigh his defensive issues), he should probably be up.  If he does get called up, they’ll probably go the route the Brewers went with Braun or what is happening with players like David Price, Tommy Hanson and Matt Wieters this year and wait until May or June to avoid starting his arbitration clock early.  I’ll be keeping a close eye on how he does in the meantime.

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Sticking in the minor leagues, there’s finally some good news on former 5th overall pick Mark Rogers.  Rogers was an uber-prospect who has missed two full seasons due to shoulder surgeries, but is finally back pitching this season.  Amazingly, in his second start since coming back he hit 97 mph on the radar gun.  Rogers is still only in Brevard County and has a long road ahead of him, but it’s exciting that he’s been able to come back and pitch pain free.

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Finally, some exciting news!  I will be attending the Brewers Phillies games on Wednesday and Thursday.  I’ll be decked out in Brewer gear, so I’m expecting to get stuff thrown at me.  If I make it out alive I’ll hopefully be able to check out some of the city and try a Philly Cheesesteak.  Most importantly, hopefully I’ll see a couple Brewer victories.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Prospects/Minor Leagues

Completing the CC deal

Posted on October 13, 2008 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Lost in the hullabaloo of the past couple weeks is the final piece of the CC Sabathia trade.  Cleveland got to pick the player to be named later in the deal because the Brewers made the playoffs (if the Brewers has missed the postseason, the Brewers would have chosen the player to go).  Anyway, the choice came down to outfielder Michael Brantley and second baseman/third baseman Taylor Green, and the Indians chose Brantley. I like both of these players quite a bit, so losing either one hurts. However, it was fairly well known that one of them would be gone, and I probably prefer to keep Green.

Brantley is a very intriguing player, mainly because of his elite level of plate discipline and good speed.  He put up an offensive line of .319/.395/.398 at AA Huntsville in 2008.  Looking at that line along with his speed, you’re probably thinking what I am:  Brantley would have been a great candidate to groom as a leadoff hitter.
 
To compare, Green hit .289/.382/.443 at high A Brevard County in ’08.

As the numbers might indicate, the report on Brantley is he is a good contact hitter with excellent plate discipline, but has not yet developed the power you look for in a starting MLB outfielder.

It also should be noted that Brantley is a few months older and was already at a higher level than Green in 2008. Green displayed more power and similar plate discipline, but he has yet to make the big jump from high A to AA that Brantley has. Though reports say Green has good speed, it’s not as good as Brantley’s—and Green isn’t the base-stealing threat that Brantley is. Another plus (but a wash nonetheless) is both players bat left-handed.

It is also interesting to note both players were injured in the second half, which was when Cleveland was to be scouting them heavily. Green didn’t see time at second this year before he went down. Cleveland was interested in him at second but never got to see him there, which may be a reason they went with Brantley.

Like I said, I like both of these players a lot, and it hurts to lose one—particularly at a time when the Major League team is has such poor plate discipline. There are a couple reasons I prefer Green at this point. One is power. Green certainly doesn’t have off-the-charts power, but he has a respectable 30 homers in 1,036 professional ABs and a career slugging percentage of .442. On the other hand, Brantley has six home runs in 1,396 Abs and a career slugging percentage of .372.

Of course, both players are young, and power can still show up after the age of 21, but the fact is Brantley has not yet shown enough power. Brantley, in all likelihood, will be unable to sustain an elite OBP in the majors if he does not develop power. Major league pitchers will be much more willing to throw him strikes if he can’t hit the ball out of the park, and he won’t be able to take as many walks.

In a debate at brewerfan, some pointed to Craig Counsell to debunk this idea. After all, Counsell can’t hit a lick, but he’s still able to take walks. First of all, Counsell is much more an exception than he is a rule. Second of all, even Counsell experienced the same difficulties I am predicting for Brantley (if Brantley doesn’t develop more power). Craiggers had an OBP of .384 in his minor league career, but his career OBP in the Majors is just .343.

The other reason I don’t mind losing Brantley is the position he plays. In 2008 he played 62 games in center, 21 in left and 21 at first base. From what I’ve heard, Brantley is not a lock to stick at center field. If he can’t play center, his value decreases tremendously; he’d be very light-hitting for a corner outfielder.

Another factor related to his position is the other players the Brewers currently have in their organization. Ryan Braun is going to be in the Brewers outfield through 2015. It seems Corey Hart could be here long term, although that is not as clear as it seemed a few months ago. The jury is still out on Mat Gamel at third base. If he’s unable to stick at third, he’ll either have to move to first base or the outfield. Another thing I’ll just briefly mention for now is the possibility of moving Rickie Weeks to center field (much more coming on this idea in a later post). After that, the Brewers still have two more promising outfielders moving up the minor leagues: Cole Gillespie and Lorenzo Cain. Gillespie is a corner outfielder who had an .858 OPS at AA and has an outside shot at seeing some time in Milwaukee next season. Cain hasn’t quite had the numbers of Gillespie but is a couple years younger, can play all three outfield positions and has been praised for his tools. Both are in the picture as MLB players and possible starters in the future.

On the flip side, not much about the future of the Brewers’ infield is set. The only position we know is solid is shortstop, as they have two pretty good ones in Hardy and Escobar. Third, second and first are all uncertain at this point.

Making a long story short, the organization has more of a need for a good infielder than a good outfielder. I realize I am always touting the best player regardless of position, but since Brantley and Green seem fairly comparable, positional need is perfectly fine as a tiebreaker.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2008, Prospects/Minor Leagues, Transactions

Encyclopedia Brown and the Case of the Disappearing Offense

Posted on September 12, 2008 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

I’ve been avoiding talking about the miserable offense in hopes that it gets turned around ASAP, but it’s finally gone on too long.  The Brewers have been absolutely terrible on offense for an extended stretch, partcularly their key hitters.  Here’s a quick shakedown of some individual stat lines since August 1.  Brace yourself… It’s pretty messy.

Prince Fielder: 219/.335/.401 for a .737 OPS.  Low all across the board… Prince isn’t getting many hits, and isn’t hitting for power.

Ryan Braun: .267/.341/.483 for an .824 OPS.  Interesting that Braun has had a power dropoff, but is taking more walks over the last six weeks.  He may get somewhat of a pass, he could still be affected by his ribcage injury.

Corey Hart: .274/.297/.459 for a .756 OPS.  Hart has just had a miserable second half.  His plate discipline, which was not good to begin with, has gone straight down the toilet.  A .297 OBP over a six-week span is Pattersonesque; that is flat-out terrible.  His OBP for the season is down to .316!!!

Bill Hall: .205/.289/.308 for a .597 OPS.  Yes, that’s .597! I have honestly no idea what happened to Bill Hall after 2006.  He’s been even worse the last six weeks than he’s been for the entire season, and that is really saying something.

Really the only regular players who are holding their own offensively since August 1 are Hardy, Cameron and Weeks.  Hardy’s been their best hitter of late, as Cameron has cooled way down after a scorching August.  Jason Kendall and Craig Counsell have also had lame offensive numbers, but that was expected with them.  The fact that Fielder, Braun, Hart and Hall have been abysmal for an extended period of time has crippled the Brewers’ offense.

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Enough of that… I need something to cheer me up.  Something like a scouting report from Bill that’s so bad, it erases any and all doubt I may have had about his one sensible one a couple weeks ago.  One like this one for Ben Sheets against San Diego.

How’s the groin?

Velocity

Watch Giles

How’s the groin?  That just sounds like a pick-up line… A weird, creepy pick-up line.

Velocity. I love the random, abstract one-word points.  I want to see a scouting report in which Bill says,  “Jackalope.  Antenna. Abacus.  These are all one-word words, and they are all things.  Except for a jackalope, which apparently is some made up animal.”

(By the way, if you want to be totally grossed out, check out this image of what many believe inspired the concept of a jackalope.  It’s seriously gross, though, so don’t say I didn’t warn you.)

Watch Giles.  Watch him like a hawk.  Don’t take your eye off him.

…

…

…

Doesn’t he sort of resemble a horse?  Yeah, I thought so too.  Ok, you can stop watching him now.

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Posted in Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??, Prospects/Minor Leagues

Now that you have C.C., time to ease off Sheets

Posted on July 7, 2008 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

Well, it’s finally done. Those talks dragged out all weekend, and for a while it looked like Cleveland might foolishly turn down the Brewers offer, which was much better than any other they were getting. As I’ve said repeatedly, I really hate losing LaPorta for someone the Brewers won’t control beyond this season.

Since it’s done and over with, I won’t dwell too much on how much they may have overpaid, because if they make the playoffs it’s probably worth it, and if they go deep into the playoffs it will be worth it almost for sure. The Brewers do get two comp picks back for Sabathia as well.

Quick side note before I get into the meat of this post: Tom Haudricourt was absolutely awesome this weekend. He made several updates to the JS blog, and continually scooped both the national writers and Cleveland writers. Props to TH.

On to the main event. Doug Melvin truly put his neck on the line by doing this deal. The Brewers absolutely need to make the playoffs after giving up such a huge offer for a rental player. I don’t think I need to explain why a Sheets-Sabathia tandem would be outstanding for the playoffs, but first things first: make sure they get there, and make sure both pitchers are healthy when it happens.

Baseball Prospectus has developed what they call Pitcher Abuse Points (PAPs). You can find a description of their formula here, but basically it a weighed system that starts earning points for each pitch beyond the 100 mark in a game. Why am I bringing this up? Because as of July 5, your most abused pitcher in baseball is none other than Ben Sheets. You can see the full list with categories at BP’s page. A quick summary of the top ten:

1. Ben Sheets

2. Gil Meche

3. Ricky Nolasco

4. Cole Hamels

5. C.C. Sabathia

6. Carlos Zambrano

7. Justin Verlander

8. Jon Lester

9. Tim Lincecum

10. Brett Myers

Now this list can be a bit misleading, as you notice many of the pitchers are “abused” because they happen to be very good pitchers, and very good pitchers have a knack to pitch deeper into games. That said, it’s never good to be number one on this list.

I have complained more than once this season that Ned Yost has kept Ben Sheets in games far too long when the situation has not at all called for it. A couple examples:

Friday’s game against the Pirates when they sent him out in the sixth when he was already over 100 pitches and the team was leading 8-1. He finished the game with 120 pitches, and was not even able to finish the sixth.

Another example was in Minnesota for The Kevin Slowey Game. Slowey looked like Maddux in his prime, and Sheets was struggling to find an out pitch. Sheets had allowed four runs through six, and it was pretty clear that the Brewers probably weren’t even going to score four runs against Slowey. Yet Yost ran him out there for the seventh, needlessly pushing Ben’s pitch count to 115.

Totals of 115 and 120 are huge red flags and put up big PAPs. It seems the Brewers coaching staff are dead set in their thinking that Ben is the ace, and therefore must save the bullpen every time out, regardless of how efficient he is pitching. Sheets is obviously outstanding, and has an amazing ability to throw complete games. That should not mean that he should be left out to toil when he is not on top of his game. 110-pitch complete games are one thing, 120-pitch seven inning outings are quite another. Infamously, Sheets has not quite been a model of health in recent years, and it is moronic to tempt fate with the most important player on your team.

A lot of it has to do with the bullpen struggling to get the ball to Sal Torres, and some of it has to do with other starters (COUGH-SUPPAN-COUGH) not going deep enough and burning up the bullpen.

Getting Sabathia needs to be the start of the process that lessens Sheets’ workload to do everything possible to keep him healthy through September (and hopefully October). C.C. is another guy who goes deep into games, which will hep save the bullpen. Some of you astute readers may have noticed that Sabathia is also on that list; he checks in as the fifth-most abused pitcher of 2008, which is also a cause for concern. Sabathia was dominant last season, but was lit up in the playoffs. Nobody can say for sure, but this may have partially been a result of a tired arm from throwing 241 innings during the season.

The Brewers should be able to ease off C.C. and Sheets a bit this season for a few reasons:

  • One of Bush or McClung will be moved to the bullpen (here’s hoping Mota is DFA’d!), which will hopefully improve the bullpen’s depth and talent level.
  • Even while easing off Sheets and C.C., they will still pitch deeper into games than average pitchers, which will in turn keep the bullpen fresher–in turn, if one of these two guys are off their game, the bullpen should be good to come in a bit earlier.
  • I fully expect the Brewers to add at least one more pitcher (likely a reliever), which will bolster the bullpen even more.

I’m sure Doug Melvin and Ned Yost are anxious for the advice of a random blogger with no connections and limited readership, so here it is. Doug, Ned, you took a huge gamble with the Sabathia trade, and it’s commendable that you were willing to make that move to win this year. That said, it would be devastating to screw it up by riding Ben Sheets into the ground. You have the pieces in place, and you’lll be adding more in the next couple weeks to fine-tune the team for a championship run. If Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia stay healthy, the team is a huge favorite to make the playoffs. The number one concern should be to keep Sheets healthy, so Brewers, please take better care of his arm.

Also, see if you can get Mark A to bring back the lemonade stands at Miller Park. That stuff is fantastic.

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C.C. Mania!

Posted on July 5, 2008 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I was out and about yesterday when someone told me the Brewers had traded Matt LaPorta and J.J. Hardy for C.C. Sabathia. Others confirmed this, and I immediately called Dan and my brother to share my misery. After I found out that the report wasn’t true, I relaxed a bit, but not a lot. The Brewers and Indians were definitely in talks, and I was terrified of what the Brewers might give up.

The JS reported last night that the Brewers’ current offer is Matt LaPorta, Taylor Green and Lorenzo Cain. I have a few thoughts on that:

  • The Indians aren’t going to find a better offer than that, and if that is truly the offer, I’d be very surprised if they don’t make the deal by Sunday.
  • Even though I know Melvin wouldn’t do it (well, like 99% sure), I was still terrified that Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar or Jeremy Jeffress would end up in the deal along with LaPorta.
  • The current offer is STILL too much to give up for C.C. I don’t see how any team can rival the offer of LaPorta, Green and Cain. The Dodgers won’t give up Billingsley, Kershaw, Kemp or Loney. The Yankees won’t give up Chamberlain or Hughes. The Red Sox won’t give up any of their key guys because they’re already helping the big league team. And the Cubs don’t have the prospects to compete with the Brewers offer. The Brewers simply don’t need to give up LaPorta PLUS two more good prospects in Green and Cain.

I certainly understand the appeal for going for a rental. Ben Sheets is an impending free agent, and Prince Fielder may be traded as soon as this coming off-season, so there is certainly a temptation to take one big shot now and worry about the rest later.

The reason I say that is this: I see the Brewers as the wildcard favorite as things currently stand. Baseball Prospectus backs this up too; they give the Brewers a 34% chance at the wildcard, with the Cardinals in second at 28%. The Cubs are actually the third highest for the wildcard at 15%, which would likely mean the Brewers win the division in that scenario.

In others words, the Brewers may not even NEED C.C. to reach the post-season. I see the Sabathia move as more of a World Series move than playoff move. Obviously that isn’t a bad thing. If the Brewers won the World Series this season, it would be worth giving anyone. You obviously can’t guarantee a World Series though.

I’m finding myself in the minority (seems to be the ongoing trend lately), but I’d rather they not do this. I still strongly believe they need to re-sign Ben Sheets, and I sort of, in a wishfully-trying-to-convince- myself type of way, think they will bring Ben back. If they get Sheets back, there’s no need to put all the eggs in one basket for this year.

My vision for the 2009 team is as follows:

Re-sign Sheets. Trade an arby-eligible Prince Fielder who has no intention of signing long term for a young talented pitcher who you can control for multiple seasons–likely from an AL team so Prince can DH. Move LaPorta to first base.

I’d still like the Brewers to upgrade their pitching staff this season. So let’s say they get Greg Maddux for San Diego for much lesser prospects (can you say Tony Gwynn? OH PLZ PLZ PLZZ!!) These moves leave you with:

2008 Rotation

1. Sheets
2. Parra
3. Maddux
4. Suppan
5. Bush

Next year:

1. Sheets
2. Gallardo
3. *Pitcher from Fielder trade*
4. Parra
5. Who cares?

I understand people are ready to shoot for the World Series this season. I don’t hate the idea, and I definitely appreciate that line of thought. My preference though, is to construct the team in such a way that it is set to compete for the division and the playoffs every year. The playoffs are a crapshoot anyway; the goal should simply be to reach the post-season and try your luck.

Of course, if they do the C.C. trade, I’ll be intrigued as hell for the rest of the season, so, whatever.

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Posted in 2008 Hot Stove, Milwaukee Brewers 2008, Prospects/Minor Leagues, Transactions

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