Category Archives: Transactions

Priority Number 1: Zack Greinke

Posted by Steve

By this time, you are able to tell for the most part which teams are entering the season as contenders and which ones are in rebuilding mode. The place you don’t want to be, generally, is somewhere in between (Hello Milwaukee Bucks ever since Ray Allen was traded. Wrong sport, but still).

The Brewers, clearly, are a contender this year, especially if Ryan Braun manages to get a full season.

(Allow me a brief sidebar to quickly discuss the Braun saga. I didn’t make this its own post, because there really isn’t anything new to say. My main thought is what I’m sure everyone else has right now: What the hell is taking so long? First we hear that there’s some 25-day time frame in which the arbitrator, Shyam Das (Is that a Batman villain?), has to deliver a verdict. Now yesterday TH reported that he isn’t “technically” bound by that time frame. Again, why the hell is this taking so long? This is a failed test that occurred five months ago! What on Earth could be the reason for this delay?)

Next year may not be so clear. 60% of their starting rotation is set to hit free agency. A full rebuild isn’t likely, with Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and now Aramis Ramirez (ugh) signed for multiple seasons. But if they lose Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum from their rotation, it’s going to be awfully difficult to field a good team.

The Brewers need to make extending Greinke their first priority. Of course, even if they do–and I get the impression they pretty much have–that doesn’t mean a deal gets done. Playing for a winning team seems important to Greinke; it’s why he wanted out of Kansas City, and it could be why he hasn’t signed an extension yet. We’ve already had the obligatory “Zack likes it here” story. It seems like he’d be open to staying in Milwaukee, but who knows.

My guess is he’s going to see how the first half of the season plays out. If the Brewers struggle badly enough that they’re selling off K-Rod, Randy Wolf, Shaun Marcum, or anyone else, I’m sure you can kiss an extension goodbye. If things are going well, though, and they’re over .500 and contending for the division by All-Star Break/trade deadline, it wouldn’t surprise me to see an extension around this time.

A good comparison could be the extension given to Jared Weaver midway through last season. Weaver was set to hit free agency after this year just like Greinke (and Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, for what it’s worth). Instead, he signed a 5 year/$85 million deal, which was widely considered good value for the Angels. I’d be thrilled if the Brewers signed Greinke to that deal. Since he’s now closer to free agency than Weaver was, I doubt they could get him that cheap, but I’d gladly take a 5 year/$90 million deal. And since winning seems to be so important, maybe Greinke only would want to sign a two or three year extension so he can leave if the team doesn’t stay competitive. That type of contract is doubtful, but who knows.

For selfish reasons, I’d love to see him stay. Obviously, I enjoy watching him pitch, but I also love his quotes. He doesn’t use stupid cliches, and he’s usually brutally honest. Take this quote from an article about how the Brewers would move on after Prince Fielder’s departure:

“Last year there were 5-7 offenses in the National League that were better than ours. Our pitching staff is what kind of carried us. It was the bigger part of our year.”

Translation: It’s not like our offense was outstanding last year with Prince. We won 96 games mostly because our pitching was very good.

Prince Fielder signs with Detroit

Posted by Steve

So much for the growing theory that Scott Boras and Prince Fielder overplayed their hand in free agency somehow. Prince got a 9 year/$214 million contract from the Tigers, yet another “mystery team.” That’s one heck of a contract for Prince, and it shows that his gamble to forgo extensions from the Brewers paid off in a big way.

From a Brewer fan perspective, this isn’t a bad thing at all. Obviously him signing with the Cubs or Cardinals would have been worst case scenario, and now he isn’t even in the National League. I don’t really mind the Tigers either way, so I can’t complain.

As far as compensation, it could have been better, but it could have been worse too. The Brewers will receive the 27th pick in the first round. This means they will have the 27th and 28th picks in the first round, along with a pick a few spots later in the supplemental round. This will be the second year in a row the Brewers will have a chance to restock the farm system with some early-ish picks.

This off-season has turned out to be okay, pending the Braun outcome. I still don’t like the Aramis Ramirez deal, but the defense will be improved. Aoki signed (and very cheaply, too). The Brewers probably aren’t the favorite in the division the way I saw it last year, but they should be in the mix. And their farm system, which was just about depleted a year ago, is back on the rise.

To prove I’m not a robot, I will say that it was awesome having Prince on the team, and that there should be no hard feelings from any Brewer fans. I still remember when Prince and Rickie Weeks each hit their first home run in the same game against Minnesota. After hearing about those two as the saviors of the franchise for a few years, that was an awesome moment. Some of his homers down the stretch this past year and in 2009 were pretty memorable, too.

 

Aoki, K-Rod, and others

Posted by Steve

It’s been quite a while since the last post, but that’s really because there has been virtually no Brewers news to discuss. Then all of a sudden, today we were hit with rapid-fire Brewers news.

How about an off-season Cornucopia of Thoughts?

K-Rod
I was pleasantly surprised that he agreed to a base salary of $8 million. I was expecting at least 11. At 8 mil, the Brewers no longer need to trade him. Or if they want to he’ll be easier to trade. My guess is they end up keeping him, because their bullpen is fairly weak without him. I can’t say I’m excited to watch him pitch, though.

Aoki
A possible fallout of the K-Rod deal might very well have been that the Brewers could now afford to sign Norichika Aoki, although I’m guessing this would have happened anyway. Since I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Braun will be out 50 games, I’m happy about this signing (with the caveat that the yet-to-be-revealed salary isn’t insane). Hopefully he will be a competent fill-in for Braun for those 50 games. If nothing else, he will be a nice improvement on defense. In fact, when Hart is playing first on occasion (as Melvin recent admitted he’s planning for), an outfield of Aoki-Gomez-Morgan will be fantastic defensively. Even though two of those guys can’t throw, that outfield will rival Arizona’s or any other as one of the best in baseball because of all the ground they’ll cover. When you consider the Brewers have Alex Gonzalez over Yuni and Aoki over Kotsay, you might come to the conclusion that the defense this year could be much improved.

Mainly though, I’m just hoping Aoki can get on base at a pretty nice clip. The Brewers sorely need some OBP guys with Gomez/Morgan, Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy in the everyday lineup.

Other signings
The Brewers have agreed to terms with Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Carlos Gomez, and Nyjer Morgan on one year deals to avoid arbitration in recent days. When I was projecting the budget, I thought guys like Parra and Loe might be non-tendered. It sure seems like the Brewers will have a larger payroll than I expected; they’ll be pushing $100 million. Pretty crazy considering they were around $40 mil when Mark Attanasio took over the team.

Ryan Braun
This thing is sure dragging out. As I said earlier, I am fully expecting Braun to be out for the first 50 games. I have no idea whether he’s innocent (nobody really does), but my guess is he might be able to save some face in the public eye, but will fall short of overturning his suspension. MLB doesn’t care about intent, so whether there was intent to use a drug as a performance enhancer or not doesn’t really matter.

Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell is joining the Brewers’ front office as a special assistant to the GM. Most everyone seems excited that Counsell is staying in the organization. That’s fine, I guess, but wow is this one of those things that justifies my decision to abandon my pursuit of a job in baseball. Some of my friends have been in Baseball Ops for over five years, are really good at what they do, and are still going year-to-year on low-paying internships. Meanwhile, Craiggers waltzes into a nice cushy job with no front office experience. I’d be much more annoyed if I was still trying to make it, I suppose.

Cool off-season, Brewers. Not.

Posted by Steve

When the Alex Gonzalez signing broke Friday, I figured I could wait til Monday to post about it. What was going to happen over the weekend, anyway?

So basically, we have the good (Alex Gonzalez signing), the bad (Aramis Ramirez signing), and the ugly (Braun).

It seems silly to talk in depth about Alex Gonzalez, which is what I would have done a few days ago. So for now, I’ll just say that the fact I’m excited about his signing goes to show how truly awful Betancourt was. Gonzalez isn’t a great shortstop by any means. He’s an awful hitter with just as poor OBP skills as Betancourt, or at least almost as poor. The reason I’m excited is because no matter what metric you consult, the consensus is that he’s a good fielding shortstop. That means he’s a fairly significant upgrade, and he was cheap and only for one year. Not bad, all things considered.

Really, this has to be about Braun…. But what is there to even say at this point? Other than this seems like a bizarre case, not too much. At the risk of sounding like a Giants fan defending Barry Bonds, the few details we do have seem so fishy that it sounds like he could be innocent, so I’m fully willing to reserve judgment until more information comes out. Even if he does end up looking to be clean, I am fully expecting him to be suspended. MLB is trying to look tough with their new PED program, and what better way to do that than by making an example of a superstar? Short of proof that some guy spiked Braun’s sample for banging his girlfriend or something, I don’t think MLB will accept his appeal.

One thing that seems hopeful are the reports that it was not a PED, but simply a “banned substance,” whatever that means. That could mean his suspension would be only 25 games, and might save Braun’s public image a bit.

I know I haven’t really said much, but I don’t know that there is much to say about it at this point.

So, let’s talk about Aramis Ramirez. You know, the guy who threw his helmet at my favorite player of all time. The guy who hit a crippling walk-off homer against the Brewers years ago. The guy who has been criticized for laziness, can’t field anymore, and is 34 years old.

The guy who now plays third base for the Brewers. Ugh.

Even putting aside the fact that I don’t like him at all, I hate this signing. I detailed why a couple posts ago, and Ramirez ended up getting even more money that I would have figured. I hate the fact that there’s a third year. Who was Doug Melvin bidding against? Nobody else was even reported to be interested in him. Why a third year? He can’t even play third base right now; I cringe to think of three years from now.

Really, the Brewers acquired yet another first baseman. Their overall disregard for defense is really getting old, as Ramirez is  worse than McGehee at third.

If the Brewers had $36 million or whatever burning a hole in their pocket, I wish they’d have spent it in a place where they didn’t have a viable replacement already. Edwin Jackson to replace Chris Narveson would have been a better use of that money, for example.

So now Taylor Green remains a backup for the next three years. To be honest, they might as well just trade him now. They’d get more value out of him that way.

For what it’s worth, and I’m just rambling now, if Braun is out I’d like to see Ramirez at first, Green at third and Gamel in left during that time.

But anyway. Some good news: as I was typing this, the Brewers traded Casey McGehee to the Pirates for reliever Jose Veras. I’m shocked they got something in return, but I’m glad they won’t be paying 3 million bucks or whatever for McGehee.

So I guess we’re looking at an infield of Ramirez, Gonzalez, Weeks, and Gamel. Probably about average offensively, while still below average defensively. I’d love the infield if it was only going to look like that for a year, but like I said, I don’t want Ramirez for three years.

So, I guess there isn’t too much left for the Brewers. They need to sign a utility infielder–I wouldn’t mind Nick Punto as a good defensive utility player, since Green is an offensive player. They also probably need to trade K-Rod, as their payroll is now over $100 million.

The Brewers, depending on Braun’s status, should still be good next year. My problem is that they could have still been good without overpaying for an aging Aramis Ramirez.

 

Trade deadline flop

Posted by Steve

I’ve taken a little heat for being so negative considering the Brewers are winning, but it’s only because of the situation. They made some bold moves to win this season, which means they should absolutely be doing all that they can to make the team as good as possible. They have not–hence my criticism.

It’s great that they’ve won six in a row. Even though they were against terrible teams, you still can’t expect two sweeps in a row. So, yes, it’s great. Problem is, they aren’t going to be playing the Cubs or Astros tomorrow anymore.

I’ve been over and over the deficiencies of third base and shortstop all year, so there’s no need to harp on that anymore except to say this team had huge holes to fill there. And Doug Melvin’s answer was… Jerry Hairston Jr. And nobody else.

You can’t count Felipe Lopez, because he’s not an upgrade. He’s an emergency fill-in for Rickie Weeks, so he very likely wouldn’t have even been acquired had Weeks not gone down. So they only thing they’ve added to the team from a week ago has ben… Jerry Hairston Jr.

Don’t get me wrong. Hairston is a nice upgrade to their bench. He can play several positions at a level ranging from somewhat above to somewhat below average, which means he’s an upgrade from most of the defenders on this team. But what he is not is a full-time shortstop, something the Brewers need desperately.

The entire Yuniesky Betancourt debacle, which includes the decisions to A. Not cut him immediately after the Greinke trade in December, B. Enter the season with him as the starter with no other real option, and C. Still do nothing about it after he’s killed the team for four months, is the worst decision of the Doug Melvin Era in Milwaukee.

It’s even worse when you compare it to what the Cardinals, their chief competition for the division, pulled off. Trading Colby Rasmus was a dumb move for their franchise, but it did make them a better team right now. Edwin Jackson is a big improvement to what they previously had in their rotation. Then, the salt in the wound came today when they acquired Rafael Furcal, a name associated with the Brewers for a few weeks.

Looking at shortstop WAR, Betancourt is the worst in the Majors at -0.4. Second-worst on that list? Ryan Theriot of the Cardinals, at 0.1. The Cardinals realized they had a bad shortstop and upgraded the position. The Brewers did not. Right now, that’s the main difference.

A week ago, I’d have picked the Brewers to win the division. Now, I’m not so sure. Amazingly, they’re a weaker team after the trade deadline than they were a week before it. It’s likely to be close the rest of the way, and the Cards still look pretty shaky in their bullpen, but the fact is the Brewers didn’t do as much as they could have to improve. It’s very frustrating.

At this point, if the Brewers miss the playoffs, Melvin has nowhere to look but himself. He mortgaged the future (a move I agreed with), and he’s the one who left Betancourt and McGehee alone to suck all season. I doubt he survives if those decisions end up costing them a playoff spot.

Infield Emergency

Posted by Steve

I was at the game Wednesday night, so I saw Rickie Weeks’ injury live. I couldn’t even get excited about the game or the win after seeing that. Then I went to a friend’s, where MLB Network was on in the background. They showed the injury. Then they showed it again. Then they showed in from a different, zoomed-in angle. Then, they took to their in-studio diamond where Larry Bowa was apparently showing the right way to step on a base or something. In other words, it was inescapable, and it kept reminding me how doomed the Brewers might be.

Unless something significant happens, that injury may spell the end of the Brewers’ season. The need for infield depth just became an emergency.

The Brewers quickly added Felipe Lopez today in a cash trade, who has the potential to be a decent fill-in. They still need more, though–much more. Eric Farris sure won’t be the answer. More on this after my rant.

<rant>

What on God’s Green Earth does Taylor Green have to do to get called up? At the time of Farris’ call-up, Green had an .957 OPS. Farris’ was .665. What in tarnation?!

There are a few explanations for this, and they’re all dumb. The first is a nightmare scenario: that Green is on the PTBNL list for the K-Rod trade. If that’s the case, I go from liking the deal to hating it. Bullpen help was a ways down the list of the Brewers’ biggest needs, so if they gave up someone who could have helped more than K-Rod this year (and the next six!), I’ll be furious.

Another scenario is that the Brewers dont’ see Green as a second baseman, which Ron Roenicke said today. To that I say: NOW they’re worried about infield defense? They already have the worst infield defense in baseball. Weeks is not a great defender, so even though Green’s natural position is third, it’s worth it to get his bat in the lineup. The offense is a serious concern moving forward without Weeks.

The final scenario is that Green is not on the 40-man roster, so they called up Farris, who was. Again, who cares? Green will be on the 40-man soon enough anyway. He’s their best option at third in the entire organization for the last few months, yet they’re worried about finding a spot on the 40-man. Unreal.

By the way, in case you were wondering how Green responded to once again being snubbed out of a call-up, he had two homers, two walks, a single and a double in last night’s game. It is beyond absurd that he isn’t in Milwaukee at this point.

</rant>

Anywho. Lopez is likely the best option of the ugly, four-headed monster of Craig Counsell/Josh Wilson/Felipe Lopez/Eric Farris, so I’d just as soon give him the majority of starts at second base. But he won’t be nearly enough. They absolutely need one more middle infielder, and really could use two.

They still need a full-time shortstop, and I’m still holding out hope on someone like Clint Barmes, Brendan Ryan, Rafael Furcal, etc. Then, after that, they need a utility infielder who can back up at least 2B/3B, and preferably a SS/2B/3B backup. Barmes and Carroll is ideal, though that will be tough to do and is unlikely.

All I know is the Brewers’ infield needs to look drastically different on Monday than it does right now if I’m going to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs. If I had my druthers (+1), Betancourt, Farris, and one of Wilson/Counsell would be gone by next week.

Doug Melvin will do something, but I’m expecting to be underwhelmed. He’s in a very tough position, but everything he’s said and done to this point in his acceptance of Betancourt and McGehee tells me that he doesn’t see the situation as nearly as dire as it truly is.

Well, that was unexpected.

Posted by Steve

The Brewers are the center of the baseball world today, with Prince Fielder winning All-Star MVP and the shocker of acquiring Francisco Rodriguez late last night.

Relief pitching is not the Brewers’ biggest area of need, but from the sounds of things, this is something that fell into Doug Melvin’s lap and was too good to pass up. The Brewers send two players to be named later (PTBNL) and get some cash (amount unknown at this time) in return.

I wouldn’t expect those PTBNLs to be anyone of significance. The reasoning is actually a bit complicated.

K-Rod has a whopping $17.5 million option that kicks in next year if he finishes 55 games. He has already finished 34 games. K-Rod is still a solid reliever, but he isn’t nearly as dominant as he was a few years ago. In other words, nobody wants to pay him $17.5 mil next year.

The Mets had to trade K-Rod. Their financial woes are well documented, but they couldn’t simply remove him from the closer’s role when he was having success. The union would have cried foul, and K-Rod probably would have won an appeal.

So not only did the Mets have to trade him, but they needed to trade him somewhere that he A) didn’t have on his 10-team no-trade list, and B) had an established closer in place so they could justify not using K-Rod to finish games.

Pretty tricky, huh? Suddenly the Brewers look like one of the only teams who could have taken him. This is why the Mets were backed into a corner and were obviously eager to deal him as soon as they could.

One thing I’m unclear on is his free agent status. If K-Rod is a Type A and the Brewers can offer him arbitration and get comp picks for him, this is potentially a steal. However, I’m unclear if this is possible once they buy him out after this season. I’ve found conflicting reports on this, although MLB Trade Rumors has him as a Type A.

So… All business stuff aside, how’s this trade for the Brewers?

The only way it’s bad is if the amount of money they’re spending on K-Rod prevents them from upgrading shortstop. Shortstop is a much, much bigger priority than bullpen help, and I will be furious if they don’t address it. I don’t believe this move prevents it, though. The Mets are contributing some money for this season, because their main concern was the option for next year. Therefore, I don’t think the Brewers took on a large financial burden here.

There won’t be a closer controversy or anything. Axford has been outstanding, and they won’t let K-Rod get near that 55 mark. I’m sure he’ll notch a few saves the rest of the way if Axford is overworked, but nothing crazy. As Doug Melvin said, this was just a way to add a quality reliever.

This does give Roenicke, who has shown signs of much better bullpen management in recent games, another weapon to play with. You’d think he’ll use K-Rod as his “eighth-inning guy,” but at least that’s a much better option than just Kameron Loe (by the way, see how effective Loe can be when used effectively, as in only against righties?).

With the additions of K-Rod and Saito the rest of the way, the bullpen should be an area of strength. Doug got a good move out of the way early, and this should give him plenty of time to address priority number one: a new shortstop.

Oh, and the most underrated part of this trade? That $17.5 million option should keep K-Rod from celebrating like an idiot. He can’t celebrate a save when he’s not closing, right?

Head-scratcher

Posted by Steve

When I first heard the rumblings today of a Braun extension, my thought was something like, ‘He must have tacked on a couple years and moved money around to get paid more right now.’ A deal that extends him through 2020 is shocking.

After the obligatory ‘If nothing else, it’s nice that a star is willing to stay in Milwaukee’ reaction, this extension is a huge head-scratcher to me. I was talking with Dan a bit about it today, and we don’t seem to be eye-to-eye on this, so maybe he’ll come in with a dissenting opinion… But overall, I’m not a fan of this move from the Brewers’ perspective.

When Braun signed his first deal, my thought was, ‘Great deal for the Brewers, but Braun might regret this.’ With this deal, my reaction is the exact opposite.

My question is: where was the rush on this? It’s not like he was an impending free agent. Braun had one of the biggest bargain contracts in all of baseball, and there was four years left on it after this season! They already had him through his prime years.

Braun was set to become a free agent after his age 31 season. At that time, what could he expect on the open market? It’s hard to project what the market will be like in 2016, but Jayson Werth just got 7 years/$126 million as a 31 year-old corner outfielder. Of course, that deal was mocked throughout baseball as about two years longer than anyone else would have offered. Who knows, but maybe something like 5 years for $100-110 mil would be what Braun could get at that time–but that’s on the open market! Looking at figures laid out in the JS, and subtracting the $10 million signing bonus, the Brewers guaranteed Braun $95 million for his age 32-36 seasons! In other words, they paid near market value... five years early!

The Brewers had an incredible value in Braun, and now there’s the distinct possibility that he eventually becomes an albatross. If you think his defense now is bad (you should), then how bad is it likely to be in his mid-30s? What if he gets hurt? The Brewers just took a completely unnecessary and huge risk to ink a player for his declining years when they already had him through his prime.

Heh.

Posted by Steve


Well, I feel sheepish!

The Brewers turned around and traded for Nyjer Morgan just a couple days later, and went ahead and filled that depth problem right away in the wake of the Dickerson trade. This was a necessary move, and really, negates just about everything I said in the Dickerson post.

Cutter Dykstra regained prospect status last season with a nice season at low A Wisconsin, but he isn’t likely to be anything special, even if he makes the major leagues. This is definitely worth it, as the Brewers are clearly in win-now mode.

Now here’s the interesting part. I thought Dickerson was likely to be better than Carlos Gomez, and I feel the same way with Nyjer Morgan. Morgan’s career OBP is .344, while Gomez’s is .293. Morgan can’t hit lefties though, so the platoon concept still makes sense. They’re both excellent defensive outfielders, so this is a boost to the team defense. Morgan had just a .633 OPS last year, but still had value from his defense. If he can split the difference between last season and his excellent 2009 campaign (.307/.369/.388), he’ll be a very valuable player.

Morgan is actually likely to start the season in right field with Corey Hart on the mend from his side strain, so the Brewers will have a pretty great outfield to start the season with Gomez and Morgan out there.

I have to say, I feel a lot better about the team than I did yesterday. Move along…. Nothing to see here.

Why?

Posted by Steve

Doug Melvin had a fantastic off-season by acquiring Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, but to be honest, I’ve been pretty underwhelmed by most of his other moves. I understand having to take back Yuniesky Betancourt, but at that point they should have just cut him and upgraded the position. I hate the Mark Kotsay signing, particularly at the expense of Joe Inglett. And I really don’t like Friday’s trade at all.

Chris Dickerson was the fourth outfielder by depth chart, and the third outfielder by actual ability. Trading him for Sergio Mitre, who is pretty much just a guy, makes no sense.

“As long as he throws like he did last year,” said Melvin. “He’s got some experience.”

He’s got some experience? Who cares? He’s a 30 year-old righthander who had a pedestrian 1.81 k/bb ratio and a 4.69 FIP last season. His WAR was 0.0, meaning he’s replacement level.  So “as long as he throws like last year” clearly refers to his extremely lucky 3.3 ERA, because as the peripherals show, he wasn’t any good.

Mitre might be a slight upgrade over Estrada for a couple starts, but when it comes at the expense of Dickerson, it isn’t worth it. Dickerson is huge insurance for Carlos Gomez, who still hasn’t proved anything. Dickerson/Gomez made too much sense as a platoon in center. Now, the Brewers reserve outfielders are probably something like Brandon Boggs, Mark Kotsay, and Jeremy Reed. If those aren’t the worst reserve outfielders in the majors, they’re right up there.

Not only that, but now Carlos Gomez is the clear starting center fielder. This is the guy who had a .298 OBP last year and was benched due to ineffectiveness.

Really, the Brewers are made up of about 9 good to great players, and then a bunch of fringe roster guys. Injuries could be more difficult to overcome than on most teams.