Posted by Dan

I’m not entirely sure how long I can or should drag this out, but I would like to make a somewhat bold prediction: I think Chris Narveson is for reals.  Part of this is Brewers colored homer goggles and maybe I picked him up in my fantasy league, but hear me out.

First off, it’s important to note that Narveson wasn’t even as bad as his 4.99 ERA looked last year, as his 4.22 FIP indicates. He also logged 10 innings as a reliever and posted a 7.20 ERA. When you remove that, his season FIP is 4.15 as a starter.

Secondly, Narveson was great after the All-Star break. While I certainly didn’t notice it as I phoned it in on the Crew after that 9-ish game losing streak in May, it seems like maybe no one did. Narveson posted a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP along with a very solid K/9 of 7.33 and a 2.66 BB/9 rate. All told, a 3.44 FIP from August 1 on.  Including his 2 starts from this year lowers  those numbers to an even more impressive line I’m too lazy to calculate. And also encouraging, is that he’s carried success from last year into this year. There’s also nothing in his 2010 peripherals that screams, or even suggests “unsustainable.”

There’s some funky sample size stuff if you exclude 2010, as the most innings he’s thrown in an MLB season was 47 in 2009. So far, his Swinging Strike Percentage is up from 8.1% last year to 16% this year. He’s also made a few other possibly notable changes. He’s threw his fastball only 44% of the time last year and this year, down from 63% in 2009. He’s also throwing his changeup 8% more often this year than he did in 2010 (in place of his slider).  Trying to draw concrete conclusions from a sample 194 pitches, compared to 2900 last year is sort of foolish, but doesn’t seem totally insignificant.  Perhaps its a conscious decision to throw more change ups. I’d love to see if his pitch selection changed in the seasons second half, but can’t seem to find that data anywhere.

One last blurb from a CBS Sportsline article:

“If I told you Narveson is a former top prospect finally showing signs of reaching his potential, I’d technically be right. The problem is he was a top prospect way back in 2002. Kind of doesn’t apply anymore. 
But weren’t we saying the same thing about Colby Lewis this time a year ago? Baseball America ranked Narveson 86th among prospects in 2002 and Lewis 82nd that same year. Pretty close, right? 
That talent never goes away, not without physical change like an injury, so any player who winds up on that list at any point in his minor-league career is perpetually on the verge of breakout. For some players, it never happens, but for some, all it takes is a little tweak — like a mechanical change, an updated pitching arsenal or a surge of confidence — to put them over the top. 
Narveson deserved more hype than he got this spring for that reason alone. Yeah, maybe he hadn’t thrown 13 shutout innings yet, striking out 14 batters in the process, but when you consider he posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings over his final seven starts last year, you get a clearer picture of what’s happening here. 
Forget Lewis. Narveson is the pitching equivalent of Jose Bautista . “

So there’s that. This could end up looking goofy in a few months, but I expect him to end the season with an FIP at or below 4.00 and hopefully his ERA will follow suit. He’ s always had good strikeout potential (career 7.94 K/9), and he’s showing real signs of growth. It wouldn’t be the weirdest thing in the world for a 29 year old, former top 100 prospect, left handed pitcher to suddenly figure it out, would it?

Posted by Dan

Steve seems to have a pretty good read on the whole “Brewers” thing, so I’m going to deviate a bit from the strictly Brewers route this blog generally takes. Deal with it. I’m very excited for this season, with the Crew figuring to have a realistic shot to make the post-season, and my triumphant return to fantasy baseball. I didn’t get into a league in 2010 and definitely can’t wait to get back into it. Me and Stev-o have taken to creating a 12-team keeper league, with some minor league spots and an auction draft, which is a format I’ve never used before. I really enjoyed researching the auction format, and unless Steve censors my post, I’m going to run through the results for my team.

It’s a standard 9 hitters at the usual positions, 1400 innings pitched limit lineup. Scoring categories are the standard 5×5, except OBP instead of AVG, as well as BB/9 instead of WHIP. Also, Net Stolen Bases rather than Total stolen bases which is a subtle change.

Hanley Ramirez ($51) — I set out wanting to grab either Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez.  After another owner pushed me to $54 on Pujols, I decided to back down and go Plan B since I feel there are many good first basemen this year. Hanley is only 27, and should be a top SS for the next several seasons. Simple enough.

Mark Teixiera ($28) and Ryan Howard ($23) — I was determined to get 2 of the top 7-8 first basemen after Pujols (including Miguel Cabrera, Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Fielder, Dunn, Teixiera, and Howard). The order they were nominated kind of dictated who I ended up with since I tended to be higher on the top 1B than most. Also, I was pretty prepared to be priced out on Votto and M-Cab after spending $51 on Hanley. There’s plenty of options at 1B later, but the top guys are pretty safe bets for 30 HR, 100 RBI. Both of these guys should be pretty safe, elite sluggers who I can park in my 1B and UTIL slot. I can’t say I wouldn’t have preferred to come away with Fielder and Dunn, but they both went for closer to $30. Howard concerns me as a “fall off the cliff” type candidate as he ages but I have to think he hits 30+ HR another year or two.

Cliff Lee ($24) — I hadn’t planned on a $20 pitcher, but I really liked Lee in this format. Last season, he pitched 212 innings, and posted a BB/9 of 0.76, which should go a long way to stabilizing that category (as well as the K, ERA and you’d think Wins). Even if he doesn’t replicate that, he should be super safe. On the downside, he is 32 which isn’t ideal for a keeper league, but whatevs.

Jose Bautista ($25) and Jayson Werth ($22) — A couple more old guys. I’m not expecting Jose Bautista to replicate his 50 HR, but I don’t really think I paid for 50  here. His power surge dates back to September of 2009, carried through a huge 2010, and he’s raking again this Spring. He had a 14.6% BB rate in 2010, so if pitchers try to work around him he wont start hacking away, and his .233 BABIP last year also isn’t great. Jayson Werth isn’t really a sexy pick, but he should be pretty safe in all 5 categories with little downside.

Mark Reynolds ($14) – I knew I was going to come away with this guy. Even with a BABIP 80 points below his career number dragging his BA down to .198 he still OBPed .320.  I’m going to be honest, I have no idea what number it takes to win or be average in a roto-league with OBP, but I have to think that with a little luck, Ill get like a .340 OBP out of him (at least) and 30+ HR which should be a huge profit.

Mike Napoli ($12) and Chris Iannetta ($3)– I really like this “Mike Napoli” clown too. He’s played his whole career in Anaheim, where Mike Scoscia (I’m not even going to see if that’s spelled correctly) hates him. Now, he’s playing in Texas and should rake. He hits a ton of HR, and he’s C-eligible despite supposedly playing some 1B and DH. I’ll root for a Michael Young trade to free up AB’s, but even 2009 he hit 20 HR while limited to 432 AB. Iannetta is a siminlar player, just not as good. Whatever, he has OPSed .965 and .837 at Coors the last 2 seasons. If I use him for 40 games at Coors, it’ll be a positive.

Colby Lewis ($10) and James Shields ($10) — I remember my first exposure to Colby Lewis. We were AT Miller Park watching an interleague game against the Rangers when I arrogantly claimed that Colby Lewis couldn’t be as good as his ERA suggested. Smartphone to the rescue! Except, this time my phone made me look stupid. Finished 2010 with 8.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. He’ll be at risk of bad ERA luck playing in Texas but I’ll take my chances for 10 bucks.

James Shields  is the worlds unluckiest mofo. Here are some career stats: 1.22 HR/9 allowed and a .308 BABIP. Last year, same categories: 1.50 and .341. He also had a strand rate below his career average. He should bounce back from whatever garbage ERA he posted. I’m not even counting it since I didn’t play fantasy baseball.

Brian Roberts ($7) — I don’t particularly care for this old, decrepit fool. But I got driven up to $18 on Ben Zobrist, the guy I really wanted, so I had to settle here. Whatever, he was productive when healthy and I backed him up Danny Espinosa in the prospect draft, and later picked up Brad Emaus who projects to start for the Mets at 2B. I’m developing a mancrush on Emaus, and he posted these lines in the minors: last year in AA he posted(170 AB) .270/.402/.434 before moving to AAA: (364 AB) .299/.395/.495 and in 2008 he also posted .302/.380/.463 in high A. He was a rule 5 pick of the Mets this winter, so they’re gonna have to carry him around. I’m likewise stashing him in a minor league spot to see how he handles MLB pitching.

Andrew Bailey ($3), Drew Storen ($3), Matt Thornton ($4) and Joel Hanrahan ($3) — I generally avoid the top closers. They actually went for less in this draft then general, but I still abstained. Bailey is obviously hurt, and Storen has had a rough spring but I’ll take my chances. I really like Thornton out of this bunch, and if Bailey comes back healthy he should be good as well. I don’t trust Joel Hanrahan all that much, despite his obscene 100 K in 69 IP last year but I’m in it for the saves. Another likely plus from the Cliff Lee pick. But Thornton, Bailey and Storen should be decent pitchers regardless and I only paid $13 for this whole bunch. I also later claimed Ryan Madson after Lidge went to the DL. Madson is a great reliever, so I’m gambling the Phillies make him their closer as well. That should get me through Bailey’s injury. I also claimed David Hernandez, as a bet against JJ Putz’s health. Hernandez was dominant after struggling in the rotation, and moving to the pen (TAKE THAT, GRAMMAR!) with a 3.16 ERA and 11 K/9 as a reliever.

Chipper Jones ($1) — I’m not counting on more than like, 100 games out of him, but they should be 100 fun games. He’s a backup, so whatever.

Jose Tabata ($2), Andres Torres ($3), Seth Smith ($1) – These guys will all kind of fill that 3rd OF role. Tabata is my only  real “breakout” type candidate. Torres has no track record, but went for 16 HR and 26 SB last year. Seth Smith should start in Colorado, and has a career .970 OPS at Coors, with an .876 mark everywhere against RHP. He’ll be worth using when facing Jeff Suppan at Coors field. Although, really, so would pretty much anyone.

Josh Beckett ($2), Travis Wood ($1) and Edwin Jackson ($1) — Beckett was hurt last year, and Travis Wood has peripherals that suggest he’s a very good pitcher. Edwin Jackson is a perpetual tease, but he’s only 27. It wouldn’t be absurd if he learned how to pitch. Small sample size alert, but he pitched very well after the All Star break in Chicago. I’ll take a $1 flier on him. This is now 1300 words long, so for the sake of ending this– enough said on these three.

Brandon Belt ($1) — I’ve honestly never heard of this guy before the hype train got rolling this spring, but he dominated across 3 levels of the minors last year. The only concern, is that he’ll be lonely on my team of geriatric greats from 2007.

Summary – I crudely added up the ESPN projected totals of all the teams starting lineups, (only for HR and SB) and my team projects at the most HR, and to be 4th in steals so I should be pretty well-rounded on offense. My pitching should be solid enough, as long as Cliff Lee stays healthy. If I can get out to a quick start in Saves, and flip one of my closers to fill whatever emerges as a weakness my team should be in great shape — for this season at least.

Posted by Dan

I am indeed alive. And even though Steve painted me as a fair weather fan, I want to tell you that I know some things. And I know some people who know some things.

My NL Central Preview:

The Brewers are good.

The Astros suck.

Tony La Russa WILL be a douchebag.

The Cardinals will re-sign Albert Pujols, but when it’s all said and done, you’ll think, “Wow, Albert Pujols, and to a bigger extent Tony La Russa, is a humongous douche. But the Cardinals have the biggest, and douchiest fans in the world.

I am alive.

Posted by Steve

Kind of a cool summary sent to me by WordPress. Gotta love the Gabe Kapler searches.

————

The stats helper monkeys at WordPress.com mulled over how this blog did in 2010, and here’s a high level summary of its overall blog health:

The Blog-Health-o-Meter™ reads Wow.

Crunchy numbers

A Boeing 747-400 passenger jet can hold 416 passengers. This blog was viewed about 9,700 times in 2010. That’s about 23 full 747s.

In 2010, there were 58 new posts, growing the total archive of this blog to 465 posts. There were 4 pictures uploaded, taking up a total of 4mb.

The busiest day of the year was January 5th with 240 views. The most popular post that day was Odds and ends.

Where did they come from?

The top referring sites in 2010 were brewcrewball.com, mail.yahoo.com, Google Reader, ballhype.com, and brewersfandemonium.yuku.com.

Some visitors came searching, mostly for gabe kapler, jj hardy, fire ken macha, nicole oswalt, and brad penny.

Attractions in 2010

These are the posts and pages that got the most views in 2010.

Odds and ends November 2009
5 comments

He’s not a winner. He really only had one good year. He doesn’t care that he misses time. He’s soft. He kidnapped my family. April 2008
2 comments

Corey Hart wears Jeff Francoeur sunglasses at night February 2010
4 comments

McGehee or Gamel? February 2010
5 comments

Evidence be damned! May 2010

Posted by Steve

Chalk this up as a win for baseball statheads, the English language, and reason: Joe Morgan is out as ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcaster after 21 freaking years.

To be honest, I’m struggling to make up my mind. In the grand scheme, it’s definitely a good thing for baseball. I’m sure there were many who believed Joe’s unprepared, under-researched, stubborn brand of broadcasting, so it can’t be a bad thing that he’s gone. No longer will ESPN’s top baseball analyst say things like, “I can’t comment on the Marlins, because I haven’t had the chance to see them this season,” or “The first thing I look at when voting for Cy Young is wins.”

At the same time, a part of me is sad. I loved tuning in to Sunday Night Baseball just to hear what whacky thing Joe would say next. I’ll miss Joe making an error and Jon awkwardly refusing to point it out, along with Joe’s stubborn silence after he’s been proven wrong. I’ll miss him boasting about his playing career. And I know I’ll never forget the inning and a half he spent dialoguing on what defines a small market team this past season.

Deadspin has some great comments on this, but my favorite: “Morgan didn’t see the ratings numbers, but it felt like enough people were watching the games.”

Posted by Steve

Or as I’ll probably end up calling him, Runnin’ (Into Outs) Ron Roenicke!

By all accounts, he sounds like a good character guy. He sounds like he’ll make more of an effort to build some sort of relationship with the players than Macha did, which can’t be a bad thing. And again, I won’t say anything definitive until he’s actually managed some games. Still, these are real, actual quotes that sure have me worried:

You guys are going to be asking “Why are you getting thrown out so much?”

“I guarantee we’re going to score more runs by being aggressive.” (And also make more outs.)

And finally…

“I wanted to be more aggressive [than Scioscia].”

Yikes.

Posted by Steve

Many may think today’s number is 600, but that actually is not the case. Today’s number is 2.

As in Mat Gamel has exactly two (2) plate appearances since being called up eight days ago.