Who’s ready for a positive post?

Posted by Steve

I realize my last few posts have been negative, which seems goofy for where the Brewers are right now. I would like to just explain myself a bit. Friday I was at Game 5, which was beyond amazing. Thing is, I didn’t get a chance to post until after the weekend, which is also the last time the Brewers won until tonight. So basically, my availability prevented me from any of the excited, this is amazing-type posts.

What a game tonight! Randy Wolf, as he said, threw the game of his life. I wasn’t even concerned when he gave up those to flukey homers, because he had pinpoint control all night. Great, great job.

Jerry Hairston Jr. has been a godsend. Who knew when they acquired him in July how good he’d be. His offense has been a pleasant surprise, and his defense at third is silky smooth.

I’ve been on Francisco Rodriguez at times this year, but he’s been very solid in two outings this series. Great job tonight against the heart of the order in the eighth.

Prince Fielder: Gold Glover? If someone had only seen him play defense in this series, they might think so. From a diving stop to a series of great scoops at first, his defense has been tremendous. His scoop of Hairston’s throw tonight may have saved the game.

Jonathan Lucroy has been a defensive whiz. He is blocking everything in the dirt, and it’s resulting in some big strikeouts.

Tonight’s game was absolutely massive. Had they lost, their season was essentially over. Now, they have the edge. The pressure is back on St. Louis. The Brewers only need two out of three, and it just so happens that two out of the three remaining games would be at Miller Park.

I’m hoping they only need one of those games, however. I have a great feeling about Zack Greinke tomorrow. I feel like he’s been on the brink of a great outing for a while. He’s been a bit unlucky with some bloop hits before a home run, but tomorrow is the day he puts it all together.

By the way, I love reading his quotes.Like this one:

On his home/road splits: ”The big thing is I’ve had some really bad games on the road — the Chicago Cubs game and the Yankees game were really bad. I guess the Pittsburgh game, I was cruising the whole game and all of a sudden, I think it’s the seventh inning and I gave up 4-5 hits in a row. Besides those two games, I felt like I’ve pitched just as good everywhere. Those two games…it wasn’t because of being on the road. It’s just because of bad games.”

I also love this one:

Did you get much feedback regarding what you said about Chris Carpenter: ”I guess I didn’t get a whle lot. My wife likes to read stuff, and then she gets mad, and she’s mad that I said it. But it just happened, and I don’t need to talk about it anymore.”

Awesome.

Two more wins. I can’t believe the Brewers make the World Series with just two more wins. I never thought I’d see this day.

I leave you tonight with some entertainment. These are highlights from a Cardinals message board from tonight’s game.

- Playing in Milwaukee doesn’t even remind me of baseball…Like, I dunno. It’s just not baseball.
- It just bothers me even watching a game in Milwaukee. I hate to buy into the sign stealing thing, but no team is just that good at home and the fans just suck ass. It physically makes me angry watching them play at home. I don’t know why, it just does.
- That is really going to hurt tonight and tomorrow.
And next week. And it’s kind of chilly in STL tonight. It’s gotta be throbbin
- And now Hairston. I’m so tired of these scrubs. Holy [bad word]. Hairston, Weeks, Betancourt, Wolf. They’re beating us. Not Fielder, not Braun, not Gallardo.
- Seriously, braun looks terrible away from Milwaukee. Probably nothing.
- This whole team looks punchless outside of Milwaukee. Probably nothing.
- I just [bad word] hate Milwaukee. Not the team or the city, just the people that live there

Channeling Yost

Posted by Steve

Reasons not to play Mark Kotsay in center:

  • He is slow
  • He has no power
  • He can’t play center field
  • Center field defense has already been an issue lately
  • He hasn’t started since August
  • Busch Stadium has a spacious center field
  • The Brewers are facing an ace, so runs were likely to be at a premium

Reasons to play Kotsay in center:

 

 

This is the worst managerial move since the Yost-Shouse game or Sveum starting Suppan in a playoff game in 2008. It is a horrible, stunning, mind-boggling decision that is completely indefensible. Even if it hadn’t already cost the Brewers, I would hate the decision with the fury of a thousand suns. He deserves to be fired.

It’s that bad.

No, really. Start managing like it’s the playoffs.

Posted by Steve

It’s been a few days since I was able to post, and quite a bit has happened in the world of Brewers baseball over that time. It’s old news by now to talk about beating Arizona, so I’ll just say that attending that game was perhaps the most nerve-wracking and exhilarating thing I’ve ever experienced. Amazing.

But moving on to this series. Of course, my worst nightmare of facing the Cardinals came true. Anybody but the Cardinals. Since there’s nothing they can do about it now, let’s take a look at what we’re working with this series.

Everyone is talking about the struggles of the Brewers’ starting rotation. The starters have struggled, but people seem to be downplaying one important factor: They’ve been facing great offenses. Arizona scored more runs than the Brewers this season, and the Cardinals are the best offense in the National League.

I would argue that neither Zack Greinke on Sunday nor Shaun Marcum yesterday were awful. Both allowed some cheap hits and then made the fatal mistake of giving up a meatball with runners on. Marcum certainly doesn’t seem like himself, but he was hurt by bunting, hit-and-runs and poor defense as well.

At some point, you have to be willing to admit a good part of the runs the Brewers hav given up is due to the Cards’ great offense.

Now, how does that help any going forward? It doesn’t, really; they’ll still be facing a great offense. It’s why I don’t expect the Brewers to win this series, but you never know. The Brewers’ offense has knocked around Cardinal pitching as well, so I expect more slugfests going forward.

Before looking ahead to the rest of the series, I want to reflect on yesterday’s trouncing. Obviously, the pitching and defense needs to be better, but I was again discouraged by what I saw from Ron Roenicke. Again, his moves are ones that managers make in a regular season game. There was no sense of urgency.

After the top of the fourth inning, the Cardinals had a five-run lead. The Brewers finally got on the board with Weeks’ homer and cut it to 5-2. I ask you this: Is a three-run deficit heading to the fifth inning still a winnable game? Apparently not to Roenicke. At least that’s what his decision communicated.

After cutting the lead to three runs, the Brewers needed to hold the Cardinals right where they were. They had their 2-3-4 hitters coming up. Who does Ron turn to when he needed a hold? Saito? Hawkins? Even Loe with right-handed Pujols and Holliday due up?

Nope. The answer is: the last guy in the bullpen! That’s right; after cutting the lead to three and the heart of their order coming up, Roenicke called on Marco Estrada. Unbelievable.

Again, this move makes perfect sense during the regular season. Marcum wasn’t getting it done, they pinch hit for him in a scoring opportunity, and then they need the long reliever Estrada to eat some innings and save the bullpen.

But what are we saving the bullpen for now? Especially with a day off before the next game! The Brewers gained nothing by not having Saito, K-Rod or Axford pitch yesterday. They wouldn’t have lost anything either, as I mentioned, because of the off day today.

This is just like when he kept Randy Wolf in to face Cowgill in the game against Arizona. Both times it was crucial that the Brewers stop the bleeding, as they were very much still in the game. Both times RRR failed to recognize that fact, and the game blew up and got away from them.

As much as I despise Tony La Russa with every fiber of my baseball being, he runs circles around Roenicke when it comes to this. He removed his starting pitcher with a three-run lead in the fourth inning! Talk about something you’d never see during the regular season. Yet, it was the right move. TLR sensed the Brewers were figuring Edwin Jackson out, and he made a proactive move rather than the one Reactive Ron Roenicke (“Reactive” has replaced “Runnin’” until further notice) made.

So anyway. I want to see that change immediately, or the Brewers will waste more opportunities.

Quickly looking ahead. What do the Brewers need to do? They don’t necessarily need to win tomorrow; they just need to win one of the next two. I’d feel great about a 2-2 series. I’m not sure I see it, though.

I’m very nervous about tomorrow. I wish the Brewers would essentially punt Game 3 and put their eggs in the Game 4 basket. Here’s my reasoning: tomorrow is Yo against Chris Carpenter (ugh). Carpenter’s been lights out lately, and the odds of the Brewers beating Carpenter in the Cards’ first home game of the series is pretty low. So why waste Yo in this game? Pitch Randy Wolf instead. That way, if you lose the game, no big deal–you have a huge advantage in Game 4 with Gallardo against Kyle Lohse. And if you somehow win the Wolf-Carpenter match-up, well then you’re sitting pretty with Yo against Lohse in Game 4 and a great chance at a 3-1 series lead.

But if Yo loses to Carpenter tomorrow, suddenly they’re faced with Randy Wolf on the mound in a must-win game. Not an enjoyable thought, but  a very real possibility.

This is all moot, as Yo is going to start tomorrow. Like I said, this makes Game 3 much more crucial than I’d have liked it to be. For this reason, the Brewers need to do everything they can to give themselves an edge. Specifically, I’d like to see Carlos Gomez get the start in center over Nyjer Morgan.

I know it sounds funny to ask for Gomez to start against a righty over Morgan, but consider the factors. First, Morgan and Carpenter have their history, and you never know what sort of controversy might arise with Morgan in the lineup. More importantly, though, Morgan hasn’t been hitting lately, and he has very poor numbers against Chris Carpenter in his career. And most importantly, Gomez is the team’s best defender, and they’re going to need all the defense they can get in what could be a low-scoring game. Gomez isn’t likely to hit Carpenter, but neither is Morgan, so get the All-World defender in center if it’s a wash. Morgan’s play in center yesterday should only further help RRR to make this decision.

To be honest, I’d be fine playing Morgan in right over Hart. That makes the outfield defense fantastic. hart only has a .701 OPS against Carpenter in his career, so it’s not like the Brewers would be missing much.

So, to recap:

  • Remember it’s the playoffs, and manage accordingly
  • Flip Yo and Wolf.
  • Since you won’t flip Yo and Wolf, at least play Gomez in center. The Brewers need great defense in what they hope is a low-scoring game.
  • Win plz.

 

Manage like it’s the playoffs

Posted by Steve

Early in the series, the decisive managerial decision was Kirk Gibson allowing Ian Kennedy to face Prince Fielder late in the game. Ron Roenicke topped that one last night.

Randy Wolf was as bad as it gets last night. Even after the five runs in the first inning, he was lucky to labor through the second without allowing anything more. The third inning was more of the same. He struggled to get two outs, allowing runners to reach second and third. Kirk Gibson sensed an opportunity, and with the pitcher up to bat, he pinch hit. Colin Cowgill got a two-RBI single, and the work the Brewers had done to close the deficit was out the window.

It was a great move by Gibson; the type of move managers need to make in the playoffs. Roenicke should have absolutely responded the same way. Wolf’s spot was up third the next inning, so clearly Roenicke was hoping to get Wolf through the third and then pinch hit for him. Leaving the starter in there is a move you make during the regular season when you have to preserve your bullpen.

The Brewers had chipped away to make it a 5-3 game, and if the they could have held off the DBacks’ offense for a bit, it might have ended up a close game. Roenicke needed to realize that was a pivotal moment in the game. He should have brought in Kameron Loe (or any other reliever; Loe was the next one to come in) to face the right-handed Cowgill. Instead, he left Wolf in and the DBacks delivered the crushing blow.

I’m not blaming Roenicke for the loss yesterday; clearly, that one is on Randy Wolf. He just didn’t have anything. Still, Roenicke needs to be more proactive and pull out all the stops tomorrow. As I type this, the Yankees just pulled Ivan Nova after two innings. He had only given up two runs, and both came in the first. They still took him out, because it’s game five, they were down two, and they obviously sensed he wasn’t going to keep them close.

Nothing should be out of the question tomorrow. Gallardo is starting tomorrow, but it will also be five days since Zack Greinke’s last start. Greinke needs to be ready to go for any reason. If Yo gets hit around early, Greinke needs to come in to stop the bleeding. If it’s a close game, say, scoreless in the fifth with two outs and runners on, Roenicke needs to pinch hit for Yo and bring Greinke in.

Tomorrow could quite literally be the last day of the season, so there’s no need to save anybody. The time for lining up a potential NLCS rotation is passed; that went out the window when they lost last night. Worry about the next round once you’re fortunate enough to make it there.

So. Here we go. Of course, they couldn’t make it easy, so now we have to sit through a Game 5. If the goal was the World Series, they weren’t going to get there without any nerves. Put on your lucky socks, underwear, jersey, hat, whatever your good omen may be. Apparently, this is why we torture ourselves by being die-hard fans of a baseball team.

Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turnin’ Up the Heat!

Do or die? Just about.

Posted by Steve

There’s a blog post at the JS in which Roenicke says today’s game isn’t a “do or die” game. Of course, it isn’t by definition, because the Brewers are not eliminated if they lose today. By all other accounts, though, it’s a game they need to win.

Aside from the obvious fact that if they don’t win today, they can be eliminated in their next game, here are reasons why the Brewers need to win tonight:

-If they win tonight, they can hold over Yovani Gallardo for Game 1 of the NLCS. That means that Yo would be able to throw three times in that series. If Yo is needed to pitch game 5, he wouldn’t be able to pitch until Game 3 of the NLCS. That is a huge difference, particularly when you combine how great Yo’s been with how much Shaun Marcum has struggled as of late. The goal here is to win the World Series, so with that in mind, having Yo for Game 1 is a must.

-I don’t want to see Ian Kennedy again. I think Yo is the better pitcher, but it’s pretty darn close. Kennedy certainly has the ability to out-duel Gallardo in one game. The Brewers face a vastly inferior pitcher tonight in Joe Saunders; this is their best shot.

-Even though the Brewers would probably be favored in Game 5 at home, anything can happen in one game. The Brewers are a better team than Arizona, and Yo is a great pitcher, but anything can happen in one game. The bullpen could blow it. The shaky defense could cough up the game. An umpire could blow a call. The Brewers need to win tonight to avoid putting themselves in a situation where something like that could cost them.

-For the sake of my personal mental and physical health, they need to win tonight. They cannot put me through a Game 5 after having a 2-0 lead. The rest of my week will be shot, as clearly I will be unable to focus on anything at all.

I do feel pretty good about tonight’s game. I felt okay yesterday, but as it got close to game time I started to worry about Marcum for whatever reason. Obviously, Josh Collmenter had pitched well against the Brewers, too.

Tonight is very different. Joe Saunders is absolutely not a good pitcher. He’s one of the worst qualified starters in the NL. Granted, Randy Wolf is not very good either, so it could be a shootout. Still, if the Brewers don’t get at least five runs tonight it would be a huge disappointment. Among qualified NL starters, Joe Saunders is exactly last in strikeout rate: it’s just 4.58 ks per 9 innings! He also walks more than Wolf and allows more home runs.

The Brewers need to jump on Saunders early and take the crowd out of the game. I have confidence they will get back to the good, disciplined at-bats they had in the first two games. It should be a new-look lineup tonight as well, with Carlos Gomez getting the start in center. It will be nice to have his defense.

Time to close out this series. Line up your rotation and enter the NLCS at full strength.

Gibby

Posted by Steve

All serious baseball fans complain about their manager at some point. Unless yours is Ned Yost, it’s important to realize that there are other bad ones out there too–most, in fact. I’ve griped about Roenicke at times this year, but Kirk Gibson is making Roenicke look like Earl Weaver this series. He’s clueless when it comes to bullpen management. He can’t make up his mind on when to walk someone or not–today he walked Mark Kotsay to pitch to Corey Hart! Astounding.

The Diamondbacks probably won’t be around much longer, but while this series lasts, it’s refreshing to see proof that other teams’ managers make dumb decisions as well.

All that aside, this playoff baseball thing is like a drug. I can’t get enough of the feeling. It’s an absolute rush when the Brewers play well. Fans hang on every pitch; it’s incredibly tense. I wasn’t there today, but that sixth inning eruption sounded like it just about blew the roof off the stadium. At the absolute worst, Brewer fans are guaranteed one more home game. Let’s ride this as long as we can.

The Perfect Game!

Posted by Steve

It was an incredible atmosphere Saturday at Miller Park, and the Brewers rose to the occasion. Other than the solo home run allowed by Yovani Gallardo in the eighth inning, the Brewers played virtually a perfect game.

The defense was just fine. Nyjer Morgan and Jerry Hairston had some impressive plays, and Braun’s outfield assist to gun down Willie Bloomquist in the first inning may have been the play of the game.

The offense, I thought, did a great job. Ian Kennedy pitched well today; the Brewers simply made him work too hard. They saw a lot of pitches, fouled balls off, and jacked up his pitch count a bit. There’s a school of thought that pitch count doesn’t matter as much as the amount of high-leverage pitches, and Kennedy threw a lot of high-leverage pitches. Obviously, Prince’s home run was the big blow, but Kennedy was under pressure almost every inning.

The story of the day, though, was obviously Yo’s performance. Gallardo is locked in right now in what may be the best stretch of his career. In his last four starts, spanning 28.1 innings, Yo has 45 strikeouts (!) and just four walks.

A wildcard in this series is the managers. I’ve criticized RRR at times this season, but I think he has the edge in this series. He started Hairston over McGehee (and batted him ahead if Betancourt), so he’s 1-1 in big decisions. We’ll see if he’s 2-2 after tomorrow with his decision to start Greinke on short rest. Kirk Gibson, on the other hand, seems to be a poor in-game manager. I was following the Diamondbacks pretty closely for the last couple weeks when the Brewers were battling them for homefield. Their games were chock-full of head-scratching bunting decisions and stupid small ball. Today, he had Ryan Roberts, likely their fourth-best hitter, hitting seventh behind Lyle Overbay (who’s just a scrub at this point) and Aaron Hill.

His worst decision, though, was letting Kennedy pitch to Fielder in the seventh. With a runner on second and two outs, they could have intentionally walked Prince. If Casey McGehee was still hitting fifth, that would have probably been the right move. With Weeks hitting fifth, though, I don’t blame Gibson for not walking Fielder. I do, however, think it was a mistake to let Kennedy face Prince. He had thrown 106 pitches, many of the high-leverage variety I was just discussing, and they had a lefty ready in the bullpen.

I suspect we’ll see more bad managerial moves from Gibson before this series is over, and the Brewers will be better off for it.

Looking ahead to Game 2… The big question will of course be: How will Zack Greinke respond to pitching on short rest again? Kevin made a good point in the comments of the last post. Roenicke would have been second-guessed on the Greinke decision either way if they end up losing this game. I’m okay with the decision, for the record–I just wish they’d have taken him out earlier in Game 162.

The team that wins the first game of the NLDS is 29-3 all-time in taking the series. That’s why Game 1 is so crucial in a short 5-game series, and it’s why it was so encouraging to see the team play so well. The hitters seem locked in, and Greinke is a better pitcher than Daniel Hudson. I’m expecting a 2-0 series lead.

Playoff Cornucopia

Posted by Steve

I had hoped to post an extensive series preview, but I just haven’t had the time. I figure a few random thoughts are better than nothing.

————

The Brewers are considering starting Zack Greinke for Game 2. This would be the second time in a row he’d start on three days’ rest. I can’t say I’m crazy about that idea. It would be different if they hadn’t thrown him for six innings on Wednesday. Carlos Gomez’s three-run homer came in the bottom of the fourth. I wanted them to take out Greinke as soon as that happened; a 5-1 lead on the Pirates should have been plenty at that point. Instead, they kept him in for two more innings. If they had taken him out after the fourth, I’d feel much better about throwing him on Sunday. As it is, I’d just hold Greinke back until Game 3. It’s frustrating to wait until the third game to start your best pitcher, but it’s better than starting him when he’s less that 100% rested. Gallardo-Marcum-Greinke-Wolf is just fine for the first four games.

————

Yovani Gallardo vs. Ian Kennedy is a great matchup. Kennedy is getting some play for Cy Young, which is mainly because of his win-loss record and not because he’s been one of the three or four best pitchers in the league. Still, he’s been one of the ten or 12 best in the NL, much like Gallardo.

————

Overall, these teams are quite similar in their makeup.

They are both above-average offensive teams with no clear edge to one over the other. They are within ten runs scored of each other on the entire season, and within six points of wOBA.

Judging by defensive metrics and staff ERAs compared to xFIPs, Arizona has the stronger team defense (the eye test also tells us it shouldn’t be surprising that someone is better defensively than the Brewers).

The Brewers have a slight edge in the starting rotation, although once again, both teams are above average. Both teams’ 1 and 2 starters are just about a wash, but the DBacks don’t have a third starter on the level of Shaun Marcum.

The bullpen is where the Brewers pull away a bit. Brewers relievers had an ERA of 3.32 and an xFIP of 3.43. Diamondbacks relievers have an ERA of 3.71 and an xFIP of 3.92. That’s a fairly large difference. The DBacks have a good closer who is comparable to John Axford (J.J. Putz), but the Brewers have better depth after the closer. The bullpen has been such an asset all year, and I expect them to continue that against Arizona.

————

The Brewers are a very slightly better team than Arizona overall, and they have homefield advantage, so they should win the series. Of course, anything can happen in the playoffs, especially in five-game series, so I’d only favor the Brewers at maybe a 55-60% chance to win. Seven of ESPN’s eight “experts” pick the Brewers to win, and Sportsnation says 73% of American expects the Brewers to win, for whatever any of that is worth. Again, the Brewers are a little better, so that makes sense, but the better team often loses a playoff series.

————

As far as from my personal perspective, I think it’s similar to most Brewer fans. In 2008 I was just overjoyed to have made the playoffs. The Brewers were expected to lose to Philly, so I wasn’t overly crushed when they did. This year, though, the Brewers have a much better team than in ’08. They’re one of the two best teams in the NL, so if they don’t win their first series, I will be extremely disappointed.

***DISCLAIMER***
I’ll say one thing about the playoffs. I HATE hearing things like, “You have to play small ball in the playoffs” or “Teams manufacture runs in the playoffs.” It’s baloney. Why would you play any differently than the way that won you games throughout the course of the season? The Brewers have a dynamic offense. I’m going to be very upset if I see an excessive amount of bunting, hit-and-running, or steal attempts from players other than Ryan Braun or Carlos Gomez. Don’t give up outs; play for the big inning. You have an offense that certainly can get you one. I will say this: From what I’ve seen of Arizona this year, we’re going to love facing a team managed by Kirk Gibson. He sure seems to love the small ball. He’s made a few questionable bunting calls already just this week. Here’s hoping that works in the Brewers favor.

————

I’m going to the game on Saturday. Let’s just say I have better hopes for this one than for the last playoff game I attended. It was started by Jeff Suppan and capped off by a mammoth Pat Burrell homer. With the way Yo has been pitching, I like their chances to grab Game 1 and give themselves a big advantage in the series.

B!B!K.T.U.T.H!

Gross

Posted by Steve

8 1/2 game-lead. A 3-game lead on Saturday.

The Braves choked on it hard, blew both of those massive leads, and now the GD Cardinals are in the bloody playoffs. Disgusting.

The Brewers have clinched the 2-seed. I obviously am very pleased. I’ll have plenty to say about their series against the Diamondbacks, but not tonight. I am allowed one night to be irrationally disgusted that the Cardinals miraculously found their way into the playoffs.

I hope the Phillies destroy them. I would rather have the Brewers play Philly as the underdogs than face St. Louis. I can’t even allow myself to think about how stressed I’d be over a Brewers-Cardinals playoff series. I won’t do it.

Screw you Atlanta. Go Philly.

Ugh.

Impossible

Posted by Steve

The impossible just happened. The Diamondbacks lost the game, clinching homefield in the first round for the Brewers. The game reached the point of a statistical impossibility of a win.

Then they won.

Two outs. Nobody on. Down  by FIVE RUNS. And they won the game.

I am honestly willing to bet that has never happened in MLB history. 99.9% does not do this justice. This has to be about one in a million. I am not exaggerating; that is actually my guess.

This ruins the Brewers plans entirely. They could have used Greinke for an inning or two tomorrow in a meaningless game and had him ready for Game 2. Now they need to freaking win it. So do they pitch him the entire game in hopes of winning? That would push him back to Game 3. Or do they pitch him just an inning, save him for Game 2, and then pin their hopes for homefield on the arms of the entire bullpen for most of a game?

I cannot even communicate how stunned I am right now. This could not have happened. It’s truly impossible.