My response to the Journal-Sentinel’s ‘Seasons of Greatness’

Posted on February 29, 2012 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently completed their rankings of the top ten seasons in Wisconsin sports history. If anyone knows me, you know I of course thought of Ben Sheets’ 2004 season, that of 264 strikeouts to 32 walks. Incredible. This was the year of his 18 strikeout game, among other great performances (Incidentally, all the people whoever said Ben Sheets wasn’t tough probably don’t realize he threw 673 2/3 innings over the course of three seasons, or that he pitched all of 2004 with a herniated disc. But that’s not my point here, so I’ll move on).

What’s actually more incredible is the fact that nobody noticed that season happened. The win is obviously a horrible pitching “stat,” but this very season is why I hate that stat the most. Sheets finished eighth in Cy Young voting that year. The joys of playing for a crappy team.

Are you ready for an eye-popping statistic?

You sure?

Sheets’ WAR of 8.0 that year is higher than any NL Cy Young Winner since 2002 (tied with Lincecum)!

It’s one thing to go unnoticed on a national level, but apparently it wasn’t even noticed right here in Milwaukee.

Not that I expected Sheets’ 2004 to make the top 5 or 6, or even top 10 (though I would put him in), I certainly expected it to be in the discussion. Instead, it didn’t get one measly vote. One of the best seasons of its decade, and zero votes.

I’ll only stick to baseball players on their list, since comparing him to athletes from other sports seems pretty arbitrary, but Ben Sheets very likely has had the best season of any pitcher in Milwaukee baseball history–that’s Brewers and Braves–and it’s gone completely unrecognized in the teams’ own city! Here are some pitchers who beat him out.

CC Sabathia got seven votes. He wasn’t even here the full season, and his 2008 season was worse than Sheets’ 2004.

Warren Spahn got 7 votes for a season in which he struck out 111 and walked 78.

Lew Burdette got 4 votes for a season in which he struck out 78 (!) and walked 59. His ERA+ was 94, meaning he was below league average!

Rollie Fingers had a great year for a closer, but he threw 78 innings. This won him an MVP!? Insane. Also crazy to put him #9 on the list.

Clearly these “experts” just based it on A) team achievements and B) awards, such as MVP or Cy Young, which are often based on team achievements.

I swear, if I was given ten seconds on national television to say absolutely anything in the world, there’s a good chance it would be, “Ben Sheets’ 2004 season is one of the most underrated in history. Go look at the numbers.”

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Changing gears here for a bit of news. I am happy to announce that I will be writing for a new site this year: Reviewing the Brew. It’s part of the growing FanSided blogging network, and it’s made some big strides since it started in 2009. They’ve asked me to join, and I’m excited to expand my audience and work with other writers.

Just to be clear, I will still be running this site and writing here plenty; I will just be writing there in addition. The idea is that this will help expand my audience, and hopefully bring more readers here as well. It won’t be the same content, either; I’ll have original stuff for both sites.

If you want to keep up with what I’m writing over there, the best way is to (sorry to say this) follow me on twitter. Anything I post at Reviewing the Brew will be linked on twitter. Look for my first post soon, likely on the topic of trading Nyjer Morgan.

As always, thanks to everyone for reading.

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This probably won’t go away for a while

Posted on February 28, 2012 by | 7 Comments

Posted by Steve

Dino the collector made his statement today. I see a few glaring parts that do not make sense to me.

He says he finished his collections at 5 p.m. on Saturday, October 1st (I believe I said Friday in a post comment, so my mistake). This was the day of Game 1 of the NLDS against Arizona (Hey, I just realized I was present during perhaps the most infamous urine sample collection in MLB history!). He says due to the lateness (5 p.m.??), he was unable to get the sample to a FedEx that would ship that day. Problem: Braun spent a good amount of time during his Friday press conference listing all the FedEx locations that were open until 9 p.m., and one that was open 24 hours. Also, the report is that the sample was turned in to FedEx at 1:30 or so in the afternoon on Monday. Why so late in the day?

More glaring, in my mind, is this piece of info. We finally know where he actually kept the sample, as reports had it anywhere from his dresser to his refrigerator to a cooler. It was none of those; he apparently kept the urine sample in a Rubbermaid container in his basement. He said, “My basement office is sufficiently cool to store urine samples.”

Um. What? Not that I know the first thing about how cool urine samples need to be kept, but how can he prove that his basement office “is cool enough to sufficiently store urine samples”? He can’t prove what temperature it was on October 1st and 2nd.

And finally, the guy’s son was indeed a chaperone, meaning they both knew the sample belonged to Ryan Braun. Did they tell anybody during that 44 hour period?

This thing is turning into a mess. Both sides are lawyering up, but I don’t see how any side will be able to prove something either way. Unless Shyam Das’ report is released/leaked, I don’t think we’ll ever have a verdict about which people feel confident.

Andy D. made a comment on a previous post, but it was so well said that I want to share part of it again here.

As a Brewers fan, we’ve got to separate the heart from the mind on this one. I think this whole thing basically boils down to “we don’t know”. There is no way to definitively claim Braun’s innocence or guilt with what is publicly known. The article that you site here says one thing, while a new article in the JS uses an expert to say that the testosterone levels could not have gotten that high over that amount of time through degradation. So those are conflicting reports. The same goes for the courier. I have heard that he is a Cubs fan, but also that he is a well-respected trainer, and pillar of his community. I don’t know what to believe anymore. There seems to be a spin on everything.

Who knows if the guy’s even a Cubs fan? Who knows if he’s really a “good guy,” and really, what does that mean anyway? Does any of that even matter? He’s right in that there’s so much spin and doublespeak that it’s hard to get much out of these official statements.

Ugh, this is getting old, and it hasn’t even been a week yet.

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Tidbit #2

Posted on February 27, 2012 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

So much for the break from Ryan Braun stuff. This tidbit isn’t really much of a tidbit after all: it potentially could make Braun’s entire case. Yet, somehow, nobody is talking about it. Will Carroll, formerly of Baseball Prospectus and now of Sports Illustrated, is considered a doping expert and has published a book on the topic. He has been talking all weekend about his piece with info that nobody wanted to host. Apparently it was too similar to the one SI already had? Except for the fact it had info nobody else’s did, so I don’t really understand.

Anyway, Carroll decided to put his article on Amazon for 99 cents. Rather than link to that, I want to share an article that discusses Carroll’s info. It links to the Amazon article if you are so interested in splurging.

The author, Chad Moriyama, is a Dodgers blogger–something I found a bit interesting, because many Dodgers fans were calling for the MVP to go to Matt Kemp after this Braun story broke (Kemp should have won the MVP in the first place anyway, but that’s beside the point). Anyway, he’s very objective in this piece, and most of his commenters seem to be as well.

He also attacks the “technicality” angle, correctly pointing out that chain of custody is part of the science. And he highlights the new info that we’ve only seen from Carroll: Braun’s defense team was able to replicate the positive test in a new sample by following the same procedure as Braun’s handler.

This is again, a piece of evidence that should exonerate Braun, yet no national media member has run with this. ESPN sure as hell hasn’t. All the national polls at web sites show that the majority of people believe Braun is guilty, yet this hasn’t been widely reported? Asinine. People aren’t hearing the entire story.

Of course, there’s no total proof that Braun is innocent, but you cannot say there is for any other MLB player, either. All the facts that have come in over the last 4-5 days show that there is no logical way to assuredly proclaim Braun’s guilt, and that anyone doing so is ignoring evidence.

 

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2012

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Zack Greinke: Blunt talent evaluator

Posted on February 26, 2012 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

I’m taking a break from the Ryan Braun stuff, mainly because it’s been exhausted by blogs, national writers, etc., and I just don’t really think there’s anything left to say that hasn’t been said a hundred times elsewhere.

Again I read a small piece about Zack Greinke, and again I laughed. Here’s a post about Greinke that’s actually interesting: he’s showing a knack for evaluating amateur pitchers.

And of course, no Greinke story would be complete without a brutally honest quote.

“It’s just more fun for me. It’s not anything taken too seriously at the moment. I liked a lot of guys in last year’s draft but the absolute amazing ones all got drafted before we got a chance.”

Uh, Zach…. You realize Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley, both players the Brewers selected in the top 15 last year, are in big league camp?

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Another tidbit

Posted on February 24, 2012 by | 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

I realize I’m probably posting too much here, but I thought this tidbit was too good to just add in as an edit to the last post. This is a report of what Dan Patrick said this morning on his radio show.

“According to Dan Patrick, the collector bypassed 2 open Fed Ex and then went to a 3rd and it was closed. So he went back and stored it. He is a Cubs fan, and during the appeal proccess they asked him to state his name, and it took 37 seconds for him to respond. They asked him to identify Braun, and couldn’t look at him. Braun also passed a lie-dector test.”

Whaaa? This is just getting better and better! If this crap is true, there should be absolutely no doubt anymore. And if it’s true, I can see why Braun would be getting ready to sue the bejesus out of this guy and anyone else he could.

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Braun Press Conference

Posted on February 24, 2012 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

I wanted to wait until we heard from Braun before I passed total judgment. First, some other things that came out today:

-Apparently Lester Munson, ESPN’s legal analyst, said

Live Blog of the Conference: My reactions as it’s happening

-Initial Braun claims:

-Literally never gained a pound
-Didn’t get stronger or faster, has documentation
-Making all the claims we have: 9 years left on his contract, never failed a test, no performance indications, so much to lose, not much to gain

-”If I had done this intentionally or unintentionally, I would come right out and say it.” The unintentional part is what stands out. This has nothing to do with intent. In fact, if his argument was that he took it on accident, he’d have no case.

-Wow. He went into EXTREME detail about the day of the test and the process, including a near-comical description of FedEx. He really put the collector to task, naming all the stores in the area that were open until 9 p.m. and one that was open 24 hours. That’s what this has come to.

-Apparently the collector’s son is the third party involved here, as he was actually the one who observed Braun take the test.

-Awesome comment from Braun when asked about tampering. “I know what it’s like to be falsely accused of something, so I don’t want to falsely accuse someone else.” ZING.

-Not a timid press conference at all. He seems like he’s struggling to stay calm; you can tell he’s wanted to say this for a long time.

-Even discussing the detailed process once the sample gets to the Montreal lab

-He is considering legal options! Love it.

-He actually said he never has had an STD! On national television! Wow.

-”Sad and disappointing” that this has become a PR battle for MLB.

-The second questions is a fluff question: “How important is the support of your fans?” MOVING ON

-Can’t name the collector at this time because of his possible lawsuit

-Biggest challenge he’s ever faced in his life

-Baseball-wise, he’s very motivated by this. Sounds like he’s a good bet for another great season.

-Another fluff question: “What does it mean to have your teammates behind you?” How’s he supposed to answer that, other than with a fluff answer?

-He wouldn’t speak for the entire program (whether it’s flawed), only for his case, in which case he said it was (obviously) fatally flawed.

-”The players agreed to this system. MLB has agreed to this system. The system decided I was innocent.” All very valid points. MLB is honestly abandoning its own system by disputing its outcome.

Those were mostly the highlights, but that doesn’t capture the conference. It was the way he spoke. He was determined, and it looked like he was struggling to keep from losing his temper–the opposite of someone who is trying to hide guilt. You could tell he’s been waiting five months to say all this. He was composed, and went into great detail about the process, the day of the test, and what happened in the few days afterwards.

After taking a few minutes to gauge reaction from media/twitter, it seems Braun did quite well. Even curmudgeony Bob Costas was impressed with the conference on MLB Network. He believes there is true reasonable doubt. I’m actually surprised to hear that.

On twitter, there are a lot of, “Braun hit that one out like a hanging curve” types of comments. My thought is that it only would have been better if there was a door for him to kick down as he walked off the podium.

I’m feeling jacked, and I’m taking it as an omen that my Baseball Prospectus Manual and Baseball America Manual arrived during this post. Bring on baseball.

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Time to pile on MLB

Posted on February 23, 2012 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

It’s only been a few hours since the news of Braun’s exoneration broke, and you can already find opinions all over the board. MLB’s representatives came out and immediately shredded the tie-breaking arbitrator, Shyam Das, claiming that Braun was found innocent on a technicality. In turn, several articles either disputing the “technicality” claim, criticizing MLB’s process, or both (like here, here, and here, for example).

Because there’s already so much out there on that, I don’t see the point in repeating it, other than to say if the process is flawed, the sample is therefore flawed. Instead, I want to make a point that I haven’t seen made much tonight for whatever reason: We have still heard nothing from Ryan Braun.

Right? Isn’t that sort of crucial? In about four hours, we’ve gone from celebrating Braun’s innocence to relating his exoneration to O.J.’s (actually saw that on twitter). Remember five freaking months ago, when this first (illegally) came out? How Braun’s only reaction was to call the results “B.S.” and say he was totally innocent? I find it pretty hard to believe he’d be talking so confidently if his only line of defense was that the sample had sat out a couple days. There still has to be some bizarre details to this story that we have not heard. Why else would it have taken so damn long to resolve it?

Adding to the fishiness of this is the fact that the report that the ruling was based not on the test results (huh? how?) and instead just on the storing process of the sample. I say it’s fishy, because it comes from ESPN’s Mark Fainaru-Wada. Of course, Fainaru-Wada is the guy who broke the Braun story five months ago in the first place…. So is he the most credible in this situation? Who’s to say he’s not just trying to defend his own original report? And how could the ruling not be based on the test results, when the handling process could have tainted the results?

I just want to hear what Braun has to say tomorrow. The only twist is that, now, I’m not really sure how much he’ll actually give us. If he would have been suspended, I imagine he’d have given us full detail into his defense in attempt to save some face. Now that he’s off the hook, he might not see that need. I truly hope he does though, because otherwise the naysayers will be that much louder. Plus, selfishly, I’m really curious to know what extenuating circumstances dragged this out so long.

As for MLB…. They’re coming off like morons. This debacle is entirely their fault, yet they’re trying to place the blame all on one person (Das). Let’s go over MLB’s errors, from start to finish:

-Letting the positive test get leaked to ESPN in the first place. It’s crazy to think that all of this, including today’s hoopla, should not be known by any of us!

-Messing up the process with the courier. Again, they didn’t intend for it to happen, but you would think they’d have a backup plan if  “the courier doesn’t realize FedEx is open 24 hours.” They should be embarrassed that even happened, regardless of whether it was the reason the failed test was thrown out.

-Having this stupid appeal process set up in this format in the first place. If you’re going to have a panel of three arbitrators, why would you have one from MLB and one from the players’ union? They’re just going to vote for their side regardless of any evidence; doesn’t that make them faulty in the first place? Have three independent arbitrators decide the case, not just one.

-Breaking confidentiality again tonight! MLB’s Rob Manfred, the arbitrator representing MLB in the case, popped off, saying he “vehemently” disagreed with the ruling and discussing details of the case. Again, this is all before we’ve heard anything from Braun? Manfred, why are you saying anything at all at this point? Again, THIS IS ALL SUPPOSED TO BE CONFIDENTIAL!

MLB made its own bed in this one, and they now have to sleep in it. I have a feeling this will get worse for them before it gets better. It’s been revealed that they were this careless in this instance, so how will players feel about testing in the future? About positive tests that have already come down? For that matter, how credible does the Mitchell Report look right now? Their entire testing process might come under fire. This is a nightmare for a league that claims to have cleaned up its sport.

It seems bonkers that we haven’t had anything other than a generic statement from Braun at this point. I suppose it’s possible that we don’t get anything more than that tomorrow, but I at least want to wait until possibly forming an opinion that he was let off on some sort of technicality.

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