Tag Archives: Carlos Gomez

Aoki, K-Rod, and others

Posted on January 17, 2012 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

It’s been quite a while since the last post, but that’s really because there has been virtually no Brewers news to discuss. Then all of a sudden, today we were hit with rapid-fire Brewers news.

How about an off-season Cornucopia of Thoughts?

K-Rod
I was pleasantly surprised that he agreed to a base salary of $8 million. I was expecting at least 11. At 8 mil, the Brewers no longer need to trade him. Or if they want to he’ll be easier to trade. My guess is they end up keeping him, because their bullpen is fairly weak without him. I can’t say I’m excited to watch him pitch, though.

Aoki
A possible fallout of the K-Rod deal might very well have been that the Brewers could now afford to sign Norichika Aoki, although I’m guessing this would have happened anyway. Since I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Braun will be out 50 games, I’m happy about this signing (with the caveat that the yet-to-be-revealed salary isn’t insane). Hopefully he will be a competent fill-in for Braun for those 50 games. If nothing else, he will be a nice improvement on defense. In fact, when Hart is playing first on occasion (as Melvin recent admitted he’s planning for), an outfield of Aoki-Gomez-Morgan will be fantastic defensively. Even though two of those guys can’t throw, that outfield will rival Arizona’s or any other as one of the best in baseball because of all the ground they’ll cover. When you consider the Brewers have Alex Gonzalez over Yuni and Aoki over Kotsay, you might come to the conclusion that the defense this year could be much improved.

Mainly though, I’m just hoping Aoki can get on base at a pretty nice clip. The Brewers sorely need some OBP guys with Gomez/Morgan, Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy in the everyday lineup.

Other signings
The Brewers have agreed to terms with Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Carlos Gomez, and Nyjer Morgan on one year deals to avoid arbitration in recent days. When I was projecting the budget, I thought guys like Parra and Loe might be non-tendered. It sure seems like the Brewers will have a larger payroll than I expected; they’ll be pushing $100 million. Pretty crazy considering they were around $40 mil when Mark Attanasio took over the team.

Ryan Braun
This thing is sure dragging out. As I said earlier, I am fully expecting Braun to be out for the first 50 games. I have no idea whether he’s innocent (nobody really does), but my guess is he might be able to save some face in the public eye, but will fall short of overturning his suspension. MLB doesn’t care about intent, so whether there was intent to use a drug as a performance enhancer or not doesn’t really matter.

Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell is joining the Brewers’ front office as a special assistant to the GM. Most everyone seems excited that Counsell is staying in the organization. That’s fine, I guess, but wow is this one of those things that justifies my decision to abandon my pursuit of a job in baseball. Some of my friends have been in Baseball Ops for over five years, are really good at what they do, and are still going year-to-year on low-paying internships. Meanwhile, Craiggers waltzes into a nice cushy job with no front office experience. I’d be much more annoyed if I was still trying to make it, I suppose.

→ 1 Comment

Posted in 2012 Hot Stove, Cornucopia of thoughts, Defense, Transactions

Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

No, really. Start managing like it’s the playoffs.

Posted on October 11, 2011 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

It’s been a few days since I was able to post, and quite a bit has happened in the world of Brewers baseball over that time. It’s old news by now to talk about beating Arizona, so I’ll just say that attending that game was perhaps the most nerve-wracking and exhilarating thing I’ve ever experienced. Amazing.

But moving on to this series. Of course, my worst nightmare of facing the Cardinals came true. Anybody but the Cardinals. Since there’s nothing they can do about it now, let’s take a look at what we’re working with this series.

Everyone is talking about the struggles of the Brewers’ starting rotation. The starters have struggled, but people seem to be downplaying one important factor: They’ve been facing great offenses. Arizona scored more runs than the Brewers this season, and the Cardinals are the best offense in the National League.

I would argue that neither Zack Greinke on Sunday nor Shaun Marcum yesterday were awful. Both allowed some cheap hits and then made the fatal mistake of giving up a meatball with runners on. Marcum certainly doesn’t seem like himself, but he was hurt by bunting, hit-and-runs and poor defense as well.

At some point, you have to be willing to admit a good part of the runs the Brewers hav given up is due to the Cards’ great offense.

Now, how does that help any going forward? It doesn’t, really; they’ll still be facing a great offense. It’s why I don’t expect the Brewers to win this series, but you never know. The Brewers’ offense has knocked around Cardinal pitching as well, so I expect more slugfests going forward.

Before looking ahead to the rest of the series, I want to reflect on yesterday’s trouncing. Obviously, the pitching and defense needs to be better, but I was again discouraged by what I saw from Ron Roenicke. Again, his moves are ones that managers make in a regular season game. There was no sense of urgency.

After the top of the fourth inning, the Cardinals had a five-run lead. The Brewers finally got on the board with Weeks’ homer and cut it to 5-2. I ask you this: Is a three-run deficit heading to the fifth inning still a winnable game? Apparently not to Roenicke. At least that’s what his decision communicated.

After cutting the lead to three runs, the Brewers needed to hold the Cardinals right where they were. They had their 2-3-4 hitters coming up. Who does Ron turn to when he needed a hold? Saito? Hawkins? Even Loe with right-handed Pujols and Holliday due up?

Nope. The answer is: the last guy in the bullpen! That’s right; after cutting the lead to three and the heart of their order coming up, Roenicke called on Marco Estrada. Unbelievable.

Again, this move makes perfect sense during the regular season. Marcum wasn’t getting it done, they pinch hit for him in a scoring opportunity, and then they need the long reliever Estrada to eat some innings and save the bullpen.

But what are we saving the bullpen for now? Especially with a day off before the next game! The Brewers gained nothing by not having Saito, K-Rod or Axford pitch yesterday. They wouldn’t have lost anything either, as I mentioned, because of the off day today.

This is just like when he kept Randy Wolf in to face Cowgill in the game against Arizona. Both times it was crucial that the Brewers stop the bleeding, as they were very much still in the game. Both times RRR failed to recognize that fact, and the game blew up and got away from them.

As much as I despise Tony La Russa with every fiber of my baseball being, he runs circles around Roenicke when it comes to this. He removed his starting pitcher with a three-run lead in the fourth inning! Talk about something you’d never see during the regular season. Yet, it was the right move. TLR sensed the Brewers were figuring Edwin Jackson out, and he made a proactive move rather than the one Reactive Ron Roenicke (“Reactive” has replaced “Runnin’” until further notice) made.

So anyway. I want to see that change immediately, or the Brewers will waste more opportunities.

Quickly looking ahead. What do the Brewers need to do? They don’t necessarily need to win tomorrow; they just need to win one of the next two. I’d feel great about a 2-2 series. I’m not sure I see it, though.

I’m very nervous about tomorrow. I wish the Brewers would essentially punt Game 3 and put their eggs in the Game 4 basket. Here’s my reasoning: tomorrow is Yo against Chris Carpenter (ugh). Carpenter’s been lights out lately, and the odds of the Brewers beating Carpenter in the Cards’ first home game of the series is pretty low. So why waste Yo in this game? Pitch Randy Wolf instead. That way, if you lose the game, no big deal–you have a huge advantage in Game 4 with Gallardo against Kyle Lohse. And if you somehow win the Wolf-Carpenter match-up, well then you’re sitting pretty with Yo against Lohse in Game 4 and a great chance at a 3-1 series lead.

But if Yo loses to Carpenter tomorrow, suddenly they’re faced with Randy Wolf on the mound in a must-win game. Not an enjoyable thought, but  a very real possibility.

This is all moot, as Yo is going to start tomorrow. Like I said, this makes Game 3 much more crucial than I’d have liked it to be. For this reason, the Brewers need to do everything they can to give themselves an edge. Specifically, I’d like to see Carlos Gomez get the start in center over Nyjer Morgan.

I know it sounds funny to ask for Gomez to start against a righty over Morgan, but consider the factors. First, Morgan and Carpenter have their history, and you never know what sort of controversy might arise with Morgan in the lineup. More importantly, though, Morgan hasn’t been hitting lately, and he has very poor numbers against Chris Carpenter in his career. And most importantly, Gomez is the team’s best defender, and they’re going to need all the defense they can get in what could be a low-scoring game. Gomez isn’t likely to hit Carpenter, but neither is Morgan, so get the All-World defender in center if it’s a wash. Morgan’s play in center yesterday should only further help RRR to make this decision.

To be honest, I’d be fine playing Morgan in right over Hart. That makes the outfield defense fantastic. hart only has a .701 OPS against Carpenter in his career, so it’s not like the Brewers would be missing much.

So, to recap:

  • Remember it’s the playoffs, and manage accordingly
  • Flip Yo and Wolf.
  • Since you won’t flip Yo and Wolf, at least play Gomez in center. The Brewers need great defense in what they hope is a low-scoring game.
  • Win plz.

 

→ 4 Comments

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2011, PLAYOFFS!?!?, Runnin' Ron Roenicke

Tagged , , , , , , ,

Fine-tuning

Posted on August 22, 2011 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

The Brewers are (obviously) in outstanding position as August winds down. They have a massive 8.5-game lead and an 98.2% chance at the playoffs according to BP. It is now time to start thinking about how to best fine-tune the team for the playoffs.

Lefty Reliever?

The absence of a left-handed reliever out of the bullpen seemed glaring a month ago. Now, with this huge lead, it is much less so. I wouldn’t turn one down, but it would have to be a good one–not some guy who just happens to throw left-handed. I say this because come playoff time, Chris Narveson will be out of the rotation and in the bullpen.

Don’t be surprised if we hear Daniel Ray Herrera’s name. Yes, the same guy who had a brief and disastrous stint in Milwaukee earlier this season. He’d been terrific since going back to Nashville. I’ve been told he’s added a knuckleball, and apparently it’s working for him.

Betancourt

Remember when Yuni was hot? Yeah, that’s long over with. He’s 2 for his last 28, which probably started around the time the pronunciation of his name changed. And literally as I type this, Yuni doesn’t even come close to a weak grounder up the middle.

As soon as Weeks comes back, Hairston needs to move to shortstop. It’s that simple. Will the Brewers do this? I’d be surprised.

Taylor Green… For the love of God, Taylor Green

He’s hitting .337 in Nashville. .337! With a .997 OPS and better defense than Casey McGehee. Even if they don’t start him, right now the Brewers bench infielders are Craig Counsell and Josh Wilson. Both are contributing next to nothing. At least Counsell brings defense, but Wilson brings nothing.

You have to assume Green will at least be a September call up, but that’s not enough. To be eligible for a playoff roster, you have to be on the 25-man roster before September.

I’d like to see Green and Mat Gamel called up for Tim Dillard and Josh Wilson sometime before September. Like the Betancourt thing, though, I’m not expecting this to happen. It’s a shame, because Green may be the final piece to this season’s puzzle.

Still…

Even if these moves that should happen don’t happen, the Brewers are still looking great for an October run. Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez will both be back, which will improve their defense, offense, and depth.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2011, PLAYOFFS!?!?

Tagged , , , , , , ,

Gomez injury: A big loss

Posted on July 21, 2011 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

It’s funny how a former whipping boy can become a strength when his manager simply uses him properly.

Ever since Ron Roenicke stopped playing Carlos Gomez every day (and hitting him second quite often), he has been a very valuable player. He’s managed an .800 OPS against lefties, and his defense in center field is phenomenal. It’s the reason he was having his best season ever: a 1.7 WAR already in part-time duty.

Both teams would be willing to take a mulligan on that bottom of the fourth inning yesterday. Stephen Drew’s ankle injury was classically disgusting–I yelled out when I saw the replay. Then Gomez made a great catch that unfortunately had “broken collarbone” written all over it.

The center field platoon has been a big strength for the Brewers this year, so this injury is potentially a big loss. Fortunately, based on what I’ve been reading on Brett Carroll, there’s a chance it won’t be. The speed factor is lost, but Carroll is graded out as a good defensive CF at fangraphs. Plus, apparently his arm is fantastic (not that Gomez’s isn’t). He is having a decent season at AAA with a .281/.356/.469 slash line, but this seems like it was done for his defense–something I am on board with.

The one way this is potentially dangerous is if Roenicke forgets how impressive the platoon has been. Nyjer Morgan should not play against left-handed pitchers, as he’s proven over his career that he cannot hit them. Carroll is righty, so they can use the exact platoon they used with Gomez.

Here’s hoping Gomez can make it back sometime in September, although it seems like the likelihood of that may be low.

 

→ 1 Comment

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2011

Tagged ,

PECOTA Hitting

Posted on March 30, 2011 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

On to hitting projections. I’m doing my best to get this done before Opening Day, so here goes.

Rickie Weeks

.259/.359/.440, 16 HRs, 12 SBs, 2.0 WARP

While this is still a valuable player at second base, they have Weeks taking a big step back from his 4.6 WARP season of 2010. Most of it comes in the fact that he has an injury history, and they project him for 484 plate appearances compared to last year’s 754. Basically, what this is saying is that if Rickie’s healthy, he’ll produce–which he always has.

Carlos Gomez

.245/.293/.343, 5 HRs, 22 SBs, 0.1 WARP

Gross. Just gross. And Roenicke’s going to hit this joker second in the lineup. Gomez is what he is at age 25, and that is someone who swings at everything. His defense is very good, but his bat makes him nothing more than a backup outfielder, and that’s what he’s most likely to be for the rest of his career. A platoon with Nyjer Morgan is ideal at this point.

Ryan Braun

.303/.364/.531, 30 HRs, 16 SBs, 4.8 WARP

Finally, someone projected to improve upon last season. I think this is the first one between the pitcher and hitter projections so far. They pointed out his odd struggles against lefties last season after mashing them all of his career, and say it’s likely that it’s a small sample fluke. These projections aren’t really meant for guys like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder–you know those guys are going to hit.

Prince Fielder

.279/.394/.528, 36 HRs, 3 SBs, 3.9 WARP

Another player likely to improve. Fielder showed great discipline, drawing 114 walks last season, but his slugging percentage was just .471. It’s hard to believe Prince is still only 27. He’s had a great tenure in Milwaukee, and there should be no hard feelings when he takes a huge contract somewhere else. Before then, though, he’ll anchor the Brewers’ lineup for one more playoff push.

Casey McGehee

.280/.336/.437, 16 HRs, 1 SB, 1.7 WARP

McGehee continues to reward the Brewers for their waiver pickup in 2009. His defense was awful last season, but his bat still made him a solid starter. Here’s hoping being a full year removed from knee surgery has helped him get into good shape and that he’ll be able to move around better at third base. The Brewers need all the range they can get on the left side of the diamond with Yuniesky Betancourt playing shortstop.

Corey Hart

.277/.334/.473, 18 HRs, 14 SBs, 1.4 WARP

Hart is due for some regression, though hopefully not much, if he performs at a similar level. His BABIP was .324 last year, and while that isn’t astronomical, it’s much higher than his career norm. I’d love to see Hart take more walks, but at age 29, he is what he is. I should be fair and mention that Roenicke is probably only using Gomez in the second spot until Hart comes off the DL.

Yuniesky Betancourt

.263/.287/.378, 9 HRs, 5 SBs, -0.1 WARP

Ladies and gentlemen, your starting shortstop! That’s right friends, your starting shortstop is projected to be below replacement level. What a nightmare of a decision by the Brewers to hand him the job. Best case scenario is that he’s so bad early that the Brewers make a transaction to replace him as early in the season as possible.

Jonathan Lucroy

.264/.328/.384, 9 HRs, 2 SBs, 1.4 WARP

I’d certainly be pleased with this line from Lucroy in his sophomore season. Last year, he was .253/.300/.329, so that’s a big jump. BP points out that he had good on-base ability and double digit home run power in the minors, so they expect him to grow into a solid, everyday catcher. His defense has drawn rave reviews as well.

Nyjer Morgan

.274/.330/.353, 3 HRs, 34 SBs, 0.8 WARP

The vast majority of Morgan’s value comes through defense and baserunning, but he’s definitely an offensive upgrade to Carlos Gomez. I’m anxious to see how long until Gomez’s inability forces a strict platoon with Morgan. I’ll say by the end of May.

Mark Kotsay

.250/.308/.350, 4 HRs, 4 SBs, -0.9 WARP

Encouraging that we’re already on our second player on the 25 man roster that’s below replacement level. -0.9 is truly impressive. This is another terrible decision to have Kotsay over Joe Inglett, Brandon Boggs, or really, anyone else. Gotta love this excerpt from BP, which was written before he signed in Milwaukee: “Given Kotsay’s limited value at any position or at the plate, you can reasonably wonder where he’ll wash up, but places like Houston and Pittsburgh might suit him.” Ladies and gentlemen, Mark Kotsay!

George Kottaras

.233/.329/.400, 9 HRs, 1 SB, 0.8 WARP

There are good things about George Kottaras, especially when compared to most catchers. He has a great eye at the plate, and he’s got a bit of pop in his bat. Unfortunately, he hasn’t ever carried a high batting average. More unfortunately, his defense was horrific last season. Opponents stole on him at will, which led to him losing his job to Lucroy. Kottaras will get a shot at some starts while Lucroy is on the mend, and when Lucroy returns, he’s likely to be kept on as the backup catcher.

Jeremy Reed

Not even noteworthy enough to garner a projection by BP, but he is quite possibly the third man on the 25-man roster who will be below replacement level. His WARP was 0.0 last season.

Erick Almonte

Same story. A 33 year-old who has all of 100 days of major league service isn’t going to get a BP projection. Odds of Almonte, Reed, or Kotsay staying on the big league team all season are pretty low.

Other notables

Alcides Escobar

.271/.313/.370, 7 HRs, 24 SBs, 1.4 WARP

“Escobar was handed the Brewers’ shortstop job in spring training and ran with it, straight through a patch of poison ivy, off a cliff, and into a vat of liquid nitrogen.”

It’s worth noting that this projection sees a pretty substantial improvement in Escobar’s second full season, and that it’s much better than what they project for Yuni Betancourt. Escobar seems to be the biggest immediate loss of all the players they gave up.

Chris Dickerson

.256/.344/.388, 6 HRs, 1 SB, 0.5 WARP

The highest projected OBP by far out of the three of Dickerson, Gomez, and Morgan, and that’s the one the Brewers traded away for a league average at best reliever. Ugh.

Lorenzo Cain

.253/.318/.367, 6 HRs, 11 SBs, 0.4 WARP

While I think Lorenzo Cain will be a solid player, it’s nice to see the Brewers didn’t give up a projected star next season or anything. Cain had a very good debut with Milwaukee, but a lot of it was due to his unsustainable .370 BABIP.

————

Well, we’ve gone through pitching and hitting projections… So what’s the bottom line? The starting rotation should be pretty great, but you have to wonder about the defense and depth for the rest of the team. I wouldn’t call them the odds on favorite for the NL Central, but they’re one of them. As of February, BP had the Brewers projected for 85 wins. I’ll go out on a limb and say 87 wins, which will be within a game or so of Cincinnati either way. The Wildcard won’t come from the Central (should be either the Dodgers or Braves), so the Brewers will need to win the division to make the playoffs.

Should be an exciting season. Keep turnin’ up the heat.


→ 3 Comments

Posted in Projections

Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Heh.

Posted on March 27, 2011 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve


Well, I feel sheepish!

The Brewers turned around and traded for Nyjer Morgan just a couple days later, and went ahead and filled that depth problem right away in the wake of the Dickerson trade. This was a necessary move, and really, negates just about everything I said in the Dickerson post.

Cutter Dykstra regained prospect status last season with a nice season at low A Wisconsin, but he isn’t likely to be anything special, even if he makes the major leagues. This is definitely worth it, as the Brewers are clearly in win-now mode.

Now here’s the interesting part. I thought Dickerson was likely to be better than Carlos Gomez, and I feel the same way with Nyjer Morgan. Morgan’s career OBP is .344, while Gomez’s is .293. Morgan can’t hit lefties though, so the platoon concept still makes sense. They’re both excellent defensive outfielders, so this is a boost to the team defense. Morgan had just a .633 OPS last year, but still had value from his defense. If he can split the difference between last season and his excellent 2009 campaign (.307/.369/.388), he’ll be a very valuable player.

Morgan is actually likely to start the season in right field with Corey Hart on the mend from his side strain, so the Brewers will have a pretty great outfield to start the season with Gomez and Morgan out there.

I have to say, I feel a lot better about the team than I did yesterday. Move along…. Nothing to see here.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2011, Transactions

Tagged , ,

Back from hiatus

Posted on March 13, 2011 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

Not really sure how this happened, but I managed not to post for a couple weeks. It’s not like there hasn’t been a ton to talk about, so I really have no excuse. If it’s any consolation, I have definitely had baseball on the mind. I’ve been working on setting up a sweet fantasy auction league, and I recently got the New Baseball Prospectus handbook after not getting one the last couple years. I’ll get around to the PECOTA projection post pretty soon, I reckon’.

Where to start? I guess Greinke’s injury is as good a place as any. It’s crappy for sure, but I don’t understand people who are angry at him for playing basketball. It’s not like he was racing a motorcycle or something. If he really only misses three starts, it’s not all that bad. Frustrating, sure, but definitely not the end of the world.

However, injuries are starting to pile up. Aside from Greinke, Mat Gamel, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Jonathan Lucroy, Mark Rogers, Manny Parra and Mitch Stetter all have injuries of varying degrees. None are serious at this point, but the team could certainly be healthier.

At least we aren’t Cardinal fans, because then we’d be pretentious and self-righteous. Also, our ace pitcher would be out for the year, and our best hitter, who also happens to be the best hitter on the planet, has one foot out the door.

On the other hand, I’ve been catching some Brewer games on the radio as much as I can. The other day on my lunch break, Yuniesky Betancourt made an error and misjudged a pop-up in a 20-minute span. Here’s hoping that wasn’t a microcosm for the Brewers’ 2011 season, but I will say that I cannot believe Doug Melvin is truly entering the season with Betancourt as his starting shortstop. He had several opportunities to upgrade with free agents, and he chose not to. Using Betancourt all season will cost them runs, which will cost them games. There’s a reason he’s used as the “bad shortstop” in this amazing FIP video.

Other thoughts:

  • The Brewers are apparently trying to convince us that Carlos Gomez is coming around. Of course, he still hasn’t drawn a walk, so, yeah… Not buying it.
  • On a similar note, doesn’t a strict platoon between Gomez and Chris Dickerson make perfect sense? Dickerson can’t hit lefties. Gomez can’t hit anybody, but he at least hits lefties better than Dickerson. If they stuck to a platoon, they could probably at least approach league average production for CF with good defense.
  • With Greinke out, the Brewers will need to figure out who to use as their fifth starter. They’d probably like that to be Mark Rogers, but after his setback it’s not clear yet whether he’ll be ready. I’m fine with Rogers filling in for the short term, but I really want him to get more time in AAA. As well as he pitched in Milwaukee last September, he still needs to show better control. His 5.6 walks per nine innings in the minors last season is way too high, and he won’t have sustained success in the majors until he improves his control.
  • I am pumped for the return of Mark DiFelice. Big time. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he made the team, but even if he doesn’t, I all but guarantee we’ll see him in Milwaukee for much of this season. If he is close to what he was, the Brewers have the potential for a great bullpen between Axford, Saito, Braddock, DiFelice, and Lowe.
  • Aside from retaining Betancourt as the starting shortstop, the most baffling personnel move to me is the signing of Mark Kotsay. Kotsay is a good OF/1B fill-in with solid defense and a nice left-handed bat… If it’s 2004. That was his last good season. Kotsay has been below replacement level the last two seasons, and hasn’t been solidly above replacement level since 2005! His defense is now horrendous in his advance age, and Bill James is projecting him for a .674 OPS. Giving him a major league contract is a baffling move, and I’m going to yell things if he makes the team over Mat Gamel. Gamel is at worst the sixth best hitter in the organization (I’d argue fourth best) and can’t just get a regular spot.

One more story for tonight, along with the caveat that I will be posting much more frequently from this point on. Last weekend I was out in downtown Milwaukee and randomly ran into some guys from Kansas City. I was dumbfounded by their reason for being here: Since KC has no NBA team, they’re all Bucks fans. They drove to Milwaukee from Kansas City to watch the Bucks! That blew my mind, since the Bucks are so crappy this year.

Anyway, I of course asked if they were Royals fans, and before I knew it, one of them was buying me a beer (not that there’s anything wrong with that) and excitedly talking baseball. They were all huge Royals fans, and really wanted to hear about the players they got in the Greinke trade. I ended up telling them that when their team is really good in a year or two, they will come to hate Ned Yost. Other highlights:

“Greinke is a weird guy. He likes World of Warcraft more than baseball. I guess it doesn’t matter, though, since he’s an awesome pitcher.”

I was met with looks of horror when I mentioned Betancourt. “Thank GOD he’s gone.”

“Rooting against the Royals is like rooting against Special Olympians.”

And finally…

“Nobody is worse than Cardinal fans. They get all offended if you show any bit of emotion, or even enjoyment. Sure they have really nice and knowledgeable fans, but they also have the ones who brag about how nice and knowledgeable they are. I CAN’T STAND Cardinal fans.”

→ 3 Comments

Posted in Defense, DiFeliciousness, Milwaukee Brewers 2011, Ned Yost... Sha-wuuhhh??

Tagged , , , , ,

Lorenzo!

Posted on August 31, 2010 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

There aren’t many positive things to take away from this season, but I’m going to focus on my biggest reason for remaining interested in the team this season: Lorenzo Cain.

Cain had a very nice year at AAA, and he’s been solid since being called up to Milwaukee. If you missed yesterday’s game, you missed today’s top play on Sportscenter.

Cain has been better defensively than I expected as well. His offense isn’t outstanding (slugging is a bit low), but it’s certainly adequate for center field. At the very least, he’s a better option than Carlos Gomez, despite whatever bonehead things Gomez says.

At this point, I don’t care at all about wins and losses. In a way I suppose that’s depressing, but it’s kind of a fun way to watch a baseball game. I don’t know that I’ve been upset by a Brewer game all year, and that’s something I couldn’t say in 2008 or even 2009. All I care about now is watching guys like Cain, Jonathan Lucroy, Mat Gamel (should be called up any day), and yeah, even Alcides Escobar. In other words, give me the young guys who have a future here.

→ 4 Comments

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2010

Tagged ,

Edmonds trade

Posted on August 10, 2010 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

It may have come later than expected, but we finally have a trade to analyze. The Brewers dealt Jim Edmonds to the Reds for outfielder Chris Dickerson.

Edmonds was the most likely player to be traded out of any Brewer this season. He was on a one-year deal and performed well in a platoon role. At 40 years old, it makes sense to send him to a contender rather than have him (possibly) finish up his career on a bad team. Plus, the Brewers are thankfully committing to playing Lorenzo Cain in center for the rest of the season. There was no reason for them to play Edmonds over Cain at this point.

As far as the trade itself, I’m very pleased with the return. I don’t see how anyone couldn’t be impressed by it, actually. They turned a non-roster Spring Training invite into a Major League outfielder with four remaining years of team control. I’m very surprised the Reds gave up a major-league ready player; I assumed the Brewers would have to take a flyer on some low-level prospect. Dickerson is a talented outfielder who plays all three outfield positions well. He’s a defensive upgrade to Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and he’s an offensive upgrade to Carlos Gomez. He doesn’t have a ton of pop in his bat, but in parts of three seasons, Dickerson has a .367 on-base percentage. His ability to get on base could allow the Brewers to move Rickie Weeks down in the lineup to a run-producing spot after Prince Fielder is dealt this off-season.

A few random thoughts on this deal: It’s interesting to note that the Brewers seem to have gotten a better return for a 40-year old Jim Edmonds than they did for J.J. Hardy last year. I also chuckle at the thought of Dusty Baker considering Dickerson expendable because he doesn’t value walks. Finally, this trade reminds me very much of the one for Jody Gerut last season. Gerut could have been described in the same way as Dickerson: an outfielder with on-base skills but not much power who can play all three outfield positions. Gerut, to my surprise, has not worked out–I’m guessing his time in Milwaukee has run out. I expect Dickerson to have more success.

This gives the Brewers plenty of options for next season. I’d like to see Lorenzo Cain given every opportunity to be the full time center fielder. Unlike Alcides Escobar or Carlos Gomez, Cain has actually earned that opportunity by hitting in the minors. Gomez has a minor league option left; he should be sent to AAA to play full time. Maybe he’ll actually hit. If not, let him go or just settle on him as a fifth outfielder. An outfield of Braun, Hart, Cain, Dickerson, and Gomez sounds good to me. Dickerson can spell any of the three starters against tough righties. He would also be a good candidate for a semi-regular platoon outfielder should the Brewers choose to move Hart or even Braun to first base.

As far as remaining waiver deals, I would not be surprised to see Craig Counsell traded soon. Like Edmonds, at his advanced age, Counsell has no purpose on a team that’s going nowhere. He has value to a contending team as a utility infielder, and the Brewers should get whatever they can for him.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Transactions

Tagged , , , ,

Let’s Talk Lineups

Posted on April 8, 2010 by | 9 Comments

Posted by Steve

After seeing Carlos Gomez hit in the second spot for the first three games, it’s pretty safe to say he’s Ken Macha’s two-hitter for the foreseeable future. To put it bluntly, that’s a bad idea.

To explain why, I defer to The Book by Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin. They have a great chapter on batting orders, which they back up with years of evidence. Here are some of the highlights:

  • Your two best hitters should hit second and fourth, with the bigger slugger hitting cleanup.
  • Strikeout numbers or the “ability to move runners over” (ugh) should not be considered.
  • The number three hitter should actually be a lesser hitter than the 1, 2, or 4 hitters. This is because the number three hitter comes up in lower leverage situations more often than the 1, 2, or 4 spots–for example, with two outs and nobody on base.
  • The second leadoff theory–hitting the pitcher eighth–gains you a handful of runs over the course of a season.

The one that should jump out to you is that the number two hitter should be your best or second best hitter in the lineup. Instead, the Brewers hit Carlos Gomez there! You’ll even notice on that page for The Book, they say, “If nothing else, we will consider this book a true success if all thirty teams were to never put a below-average hitter in the second spot. While the proper strategy will only gain you a few runs, why do something that is otherwise clearly wrong?”

Applying this theory to the Brewers lineup using CHONE projections, a near optimal lineup looks something like this (projected OBP and SLG in parentheses)

  1. Rickie Weeks (.368, .449)
  2. Ryan Braun (.372, .568)
  3. Casey McGehee (.326, .412) Mat Gamel’s projections were better
  4. Prince Fielder (.387, .577)
  5. Corey Hart (.333, .456)
  6. Alcides Escobar (.334, .389)
  7. Gregg Zaun (.332, .368) Jonathan Lucroy’s projections were better.
  8. Pitcher
  9. Carlos Gomez (.329, .390) Jody Gerut’s projections were better

A few things jump out from that. First: CHONE thinks the Brewers have only three above average hitters on their team. That’s obviously concerning.

Second: CHONE thinks the Brewers have three players within the organization who are better offensively than current starters (yes Gamel’s hurt, but he wasn’t going to win the job anyway). That’s also concerning.

Third: that is a pretty wacky-looking lineup. I don’t recall anyone suggesting Braun and Fielder be broken up in the lineup, but that’s exactly what The Book suggests. People seem to groan whenever the Brewers hit the pitcher eighth, but I’ve always been in support of it.

I know I’ve discussed lineup optimization in the past, and I admitted that for the fairly negligible difference they make (maybe a win or so over the course of a season), the strong response/backlash they would receive may not even be worth it. But that statement was made when lineups were fairly close to optimal. The current lineup Macha is using is so far from optimal that it would likely cost the Brewers more than two wins if he used it all season.

A perfect “real-life” application of this was seen in yesterday’s game. With nobody out, Rickie Weeks stood on second base and Carlos Gomez was up to bat. With the leadoff hitter on second, that is normally a great RBI opportunity for what should be one of your best hitters. Instead, Macha had Gomez sac bunt the runner to third! Terrible move regardless of who was hitting–that move lowers the run expectancy for the inning–but the sac bunt was only a viable option in Macha’s mind because he was hitting Gomez second. If Ryan Braun was up in that spot, do you think he’d have been bunting?

Since The Book’s lineup will never fly, I’m willing to make a compromise. Here’s my suggestion of a happy medium between Macha’s lineup and The Book’s lineup:

Against Righties

  1. Weeks
  2. Edmonds
  3. Braun
  4. Fielder
  5. McGehee
  6. Escobar
  7. Zaun
  8. Pitcher
  9. Gomez

Against Lefties

  1. Weeks
  2. Hart
  3. Braun
  4. Fielder
  5. McGehee
  6. Escobar
  7. Zaun
  8. Pitcher
  9. Gomez

Of course, if I had my druthers, Gerut would be getting a good chunk of Gomez’s playing time, but I chose to go with who the Brewers have decided are their starters. I’m not a huge Edmonds fan, but he still shows nice on-base skills and is likely to have a higher OBP than Gomez. Hart’s on-base skills have been pretty bad the last couple years, but against lefties his career OBP is a solid .357.

I admit that I can at least see what the Brewers liked in Carlos Gomez. He’s carried the “potential” tag with him for years, and he showed why on Monday. There’s still hope that he could become a good offensive player, but the point is, at this point in his career all he’s been is a below average hitter. There’s no reason to hit him in one of the most important spots in the lineup until he has proven he can hit.

→ 9 Comments

Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2010, Projections

Tagged , ,