Tag Archives: Corey Hart

Aoki, K-Rod, and others

Posted on January 17, 2012 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

It’s been quite a while since the last post, but that’s really because there has been virtually no Brewers news to discuss. Then all of a sudden, today we were hit with rapid-fire Brewers news.

How about an off-season Cornucopia of Thoughts?

K-Rod
I was pleasantly surprised that he agreed to a base salary of $8 million. I was expecting at least 11. At 8 mil, the Brewers no longer need to trade him. Or if they want to he’ll be easier to trade. My guess is they end up keeping him, because their bullpen is fairly weak without him. I can’t say I’m excited to watch him pitch, though.

Aoki
A possible fallout of the K-Rod deal might very well have been that the Brewers could now afford to sign Norichika Aoki, although I’m guessing this would have happened anyway. Since I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Braun will be out 50 games, I’m happy about this signing (with the caveat that the yet-to-be-revealed salary isn’t insane). Hopefully he will be a competent fill-in for Braun for those 50 games. If nothing else, he will be a nice improvement on defense. In fact, when Hart is playing first on occasion (as Melvin recent admitted he’s planning for), an outfield of Aoki-Gomez-Morgan will be fantastic defensively. Even though two of those guys can’t throw, that outfield will rival Arizona’s or any other as one of the best in baseball because of all the ground they’ll cover. When you consider the Brewers have Alex Gonzalez over Yuni and Aoki over Kotsay, you might come to the conclusion that the defense this year could be much improved.

Mainly though, I’m just hoping Aoki can get on base at a pretty nice clip. The Brewers sorely need some OBP guys with Gomez/Morgan, Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy in the everyday lineup.

Other signings
The Brewers have agreed to terms with Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Carlos Gomez, and Nyjer Morgan on one year deals to avoid arbitration in recent days. When I was projecting the budget, I thought guys like Parra and Loe might be non-tendered. It sure seems like the Brewers will have a larger payroll than I expected; they’ll be pushing $100 million. Pretty crazy considering they were around $40 mil when Mark Attanasio took over the team.

Ryan Braun
This thing is sure dragging out. As I said earlier, I am fully expecting Braun to be out for the first 50 games. I have no idea whether he’s innocent (nobody really does), but my guess is he might be able to save some face in the public eye, but will fall short of overturning his suspension. MLB doesn’t care about intent, so whether there was intent to use a drug as a performance enhancer or not doesn’t really matter.

Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell is joining the Brewers’ front office as a special assistant to the GM. Most everyone seems excited that Counsell is staying in the organization. That’s fine, I guess, but wow is this one of those things that justifies my decision to abandon my pursuit of a job in baseball. Some of my friends have been in Baseball Ops for over five years, are really good at what they do, and are still going year-to-year on low-paying internships. Meanwhile, Craiggers waltzes into a nice cushy job with no front office experience. I’d be much more annoyed if I was still trying to make it, I suppose.

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Posted in 2012 Hot Stove, Cornucopia of thoughts, Defense, Transactions

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No, really. Start managing like it’s the playoffs.

Posted on October 11, 2011 by | 4 Comments

Posted by Steve

It’s been a few days since I was able to post, and quite a bit has happened in the world of Brewers baseball over that time. It’s old news by now to talk about beating Arizona, so I’ll just say that attending that game was perhaps the most nerve-wracking and exhilarating thing I’ve ever experienced. Amazing.

But moving on to this series. Of course, my worst nightmare of facing the Cardinals came true. Anybody but the Cardinals. Since there’s nothing they can do about it now, let’s take a look at what we’re working with this series.

Everyone is talking about the struggles of the Brewers’ starting rotation. The starters have struggled, but people seem to be downplaying one important factor: They’ve been facing great offenses. Arizona scored more runs than the Brewers this season, and the Cardinals are the best offense in the National League.

I would argue that neither Zack Greinke on Sunday nor Shaun Marcum yesterday were awful. Both allowed some cheap hits and then made the fatal mistake of giving up a meatball with runners on. Marcum certainly doesn’t seem like himself, but he was hurt by bunting, hit-and-runs and poor defense as well.

At some point, you have to be willing to admit a good part of the runs the Brewers hav given up is due to the Cards’ great offense.

Now, how does that help any going forward? It doesn’t, really; they’ll still be facing a great offense. It’s why I don’t expect the Brewers to win this series, but you never know. The Brewers’ offense has knocked around Cardinal pitching as well, so I expect more slugfests going forward.

Before looking ahead to the rest of the series, I want to reflect on yesterday’s trouncing. Obviously, the pitching and defense needs to be better, but I was again discouraged by what I saw from Ron Roenicke. Again, his moves are ones that managers make in a regular season game. There was no sense of urgency.

After the top of the fourth inning, the Cardinals had a five-run lead. The Brewers finally got on the board with Weeks’ homer and cut it to 5-2. I ask you this: Is a three-run deficit heading to the fifth inning still a winnable game? Apparently not to Roenicke. At least that’s what his decision communicated.

After cutting the lead to three runs, the Brewers needed to hold the Cardinals right where they were. They had their 2-3-4 hitters coming up. Who does Ron turn to when he needed a hold? Saito? Hawkins? Even Loe with right-handed Pujols and Holliday due up?

Nope. The answer is: the last guy in the bullpen! That’s right; after cutting the lead to three and the heart of their order coming up, Roenicke called on Marco Estrada. Unbelievable.

Again, this move makes perfect sense during the regular season. Marcum wasn’t getting it done, they pinch hit for him in a scoring opportunity, and then they need the long reliever Estrada to eat some innings and save the bullpen.

But what are we saving the bullpen for now? Especially with a day off before the next game! The Brewers gained nothing by not having Saito, K-Rod or Axford pitch yesterday. They wouldn’t have lost anything either, as I mentioned, because of the off day today.

This is just like when he kept Randy Wolf in to face Cowgill in the game against Arizona. Both times it was crucial that the Brewers stop the bleeding, as they were very much still in the game. Both times RRR failed to recognize that fact, and the game blew up and got away from them.

As much as I despise Tony La Russa with every fiber of my baseball being, he runs circles around Roenicke when it comes to this. He removed his starting pitcher with a three-run lead in the fourth inning! Talk about something you’d never see during the regular season. Yet, it was the right move. TLR sensed the Brewers were figuring Edwin Jackson out, and he made a proactive move rather than the one Reactive Ron Roenicke (“Reactive” has replaced “Runnin’” until further notice) made.

So anyway. I want to see that change immediately, or the Brewers will waste more opportunities.

Quickly looking ahead. What do the Brewers need to do? They don’t necessarily need to win tomorrow; they just need to win one of the next two. I’d feel great about a 2-2 series. I’m not sure I see it, though.

I’m very nervous about tomorrow. I wish the Brewers would essentially punt Game 3 and put their eggs in the Game 4 basket. Here’s my reasoning: tomorrow is Yo against Chris Carpenter (ugh). Carpenter’s been lights out lately, and the odds of the Brewers beating Carpenter in the Cards’ first home game of the series is pretty low. So why waste Yo in this game? Pitch Randy Wolf instead. That way, if you lose the game, no big deal–you have a huge advantage in Game 4 with Gallardo against Kyle Lohse. And if you somehow win the Wolf-Carpenter match-up, well then you’re sitting pretty with Yo against Lohse in Game 4 and a great chance at a 3-1 series lead.

But if Yo loses to Carpenter tomorrow, suddenly they’re faced with Randy Wolf on the mound in a must-win game. Not an enjoyable thought, but  a very real possibility.

This is all moot, as Yo is going to start tomorrow. Like I said, this makes Game 3 much more crucial than I’d have liked it to be. For this reason, the Brewers need to do everything they can to give themselves an edge. Specifically, I’d like to see Carlos Gomez get the start in center over Nyjer Morgan.

I know it sounds funny to ask for Gomez to start against a righty over Morgan, but consider the factors. First, Morgan and Carpenter have their history, and you never know what sort of controversy might arise with Morgan in the lineup. More importantly, though, Morgan hasn’t been hitting lately, and he has very poor numbers against Chris Carpenter in his career. And most importantly, Gomez is the team’s best defender, and they’re going to need all the defense they can get in what could be a low-scoring game. Gomez isn’t likely to hit Carpenter, but neither is Morgan, so get the All-World defender in center if it’s a wash. Morgan’s play in center yesterday should only further help RRR to make this decision.

To be honest, I’d be fine playing Morgan in right over Hart. That makes the outfield defense fantastic. hart only has a .701 OPS against Carpenter in his career, so it’s not like the Brewers would be missing much.

So, to recap:

  • Remember it’s the playoffs, and manage accordingly
  • Flip Yo and Wolf.
  • Since you won’t flip Yo and Wolf, at least play Gomez in center. The Brewers need great defense in what they hope is a low-scoring game.
  • Win plz.

 

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2011, PLAYOFFS!?!?, Runnin' Ron Roenicke

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PECOTA Hitting

Posted on March 30, 2011 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

On to hitting projections. I’m doing my best to get this done before Opening Day, so here goes.

Rickie Weeks

.259/.359/.440, 16 HRs, 12 SBs, 2.0 WARP

While this is still a valuable player at second base, they have Weeks taking a big step back from his 4.6 WARP season of 2010. Most of it comes in the fact that he has an injury history, and they project him for 484 plate appearances compared to last year’s 754. Basically, what this is saying is that if Rickie’s healthy, he’ll produce–which he always has.

Carlos Gomez

.245/.293/.343, 5 HRs, 22 SBs, 0.1 WARP

Gross. Just gross. And Roenicke’s going to hit this joker second in the lineup. Gomez is what he is at age 25, and that is someone who swings at everything. His defense is very good, but his bat makes him nothing more than a backup outfielder, and that’s what he’s most likely to be for the rest of his career. A platoon with Nyjer Morgan is ideal at this point.

Ryan Braun

.303/.364/.531, 30 HRs, 16 SBs, 4.8 WARP

Finally, someone projected to improve upon last season. I think this is the first one between the pitcher and hitter projections so far. They pointed out his odd struggles against lefties last season after mashing them all of his career, and say it’s likely that it’s a small sample fluke. These projections aren’t really meant for guys like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder–you know those guys are going to hit.

Prince Fielder

.279/.394/.528, 36 HRs, 3 SBs, 3.9 WARP

Another player likely to improve. Fielder showed great discipline, drawing 114 walks last season, but his slugging percentage was just .471. It’s hard to believe Prince is still only 27. He’s had a great tenure in Milwaukee, and there should be no hard feelings when he takes a huge contract somewhere else. Before then, though, he’ll anchor the Brewers’ lineup for one more playoff push.

Casey McGehee

.280/.336/.437, 16 HRs, 1 SB, 1.7 WARP

McGehee continues to reward the Brewers for their waiver pickup in 2009. His defense was awful last season, but his bat still made him a solid starter. Here’s hoping being a full year removed from knee surgery has helped him get into good shape and that he’ll be able to move around better at third base. The Brewers need all the range they can get on the left side of the diamond with Yuniesky Betancourt playing shortstop.

Corey Hart

.277/.334/.473, 18 HRs, 14 SBs, 1.4 WARP

Hart is due for some regression, though hopefully not much, if he performs at a similar level. His BABIP was .324 last year, and while that isn’t astronomical, it’s much higher than his career norm. I’d love to see Hart take more walks, but at age 29, he is what he is. I should be fair and mention that Roenicke is probably only using Gomez in the second spot until Hart comes off the DL.

Yuniesky Betancourt

.263/.287/.378, 9 HRs, 5 SBs, -0.1 WARP

Ladies and gentlemen, your starting shortstop! That’s right friends, your starting shortstop is projected to be below replacement level. What a nightmare of a decision by the Brewers to hand him the job. Best case scenario is that he’s so bad early that the Brewers make a transaction to replace him as early in the season as possible.

Jonathan Lucroy

.264/.328/.384, 9 HRs, 2 SBs, 1.4 WARP

I’d certainly be pleased with this line from Lucroy in his sophomore season. Last year, he was .253/.300/.329, so that’s a big jump. BP points out that he had good on-base ability and double digit home run power in the minors, so they expect him to grow into a solid, everyday catcher. His defense has drawn rave reviews as well.

Nyjer Morgan

.274/.330/.353, 3 HRs, 34 SBs, 0.8 WARP

The vast majority of Morgan’s value comes through defense and baserunning, but he’s definitely an offensive upgrade to Carlos Gomez. I’m anxious to see how long until Gomez’s inability forces a strict platoon with Morgan. I’ll say by the end of May.

Mark Kotsay

.250/.308/.350, 4 HRs, 4 SBs, -0.9 WARP

Encouraging that we’re already on our second player on the 25 man roster that’s below replacement level. -0.9 is truly impressive. This is another terrible decision to have Kotsay over Joe Inglett, Brandon Boggs, or really, anyone else. Gotta love this excerpt from BP, which was written before he signed in Milwaukee: “Given Kotsay’s limited value at any position or at the plate, you can reasonably wonder where he’ll wash up, but places like Houston and Pittsburgh might suit him.” Ladies and gentlemen, Mark Kotsay!

George Kottaras

.233/.329/.400, 9 HRs, 1 SB, 0.8 WARP

There are good things about George Kottaras, especially when compared to most catchers. He has a great eye at the plate, and he’s got a bit of pop in his bat. Unfortunately, he hasn’t ever carried a high batting average. More unfortunately, his defense was horrific last season. Opponents stole on him at will, which led to him losing his job to Lucroy. Kottaras will get a shot at some starts while Lucroy is on the mend, and when Lucroy returns, he’s likely to be kept on as the backup catcher.

Jeremy Reed

Not even noteworthy enough to garner a projection by BP, but he is quite possibly the third man on the 25-man roster who will be below replacement level. His WARP was 0.0 last season.

Erick Almonte

Same story. A 33 year-old who has all of 100 days of major league service isn’t going to get a BP projection. Odds of Almonte, Reed, or Kotsay staying on the big league team all season are pretty low.

Other notables

Alcides Escobar

.271/.313/.370, 7 HRs, 24 SBs, 1.4 WARP

“Escobar was handed the Brewers’ shortstop job in spring training and ran with it, straight through a patch of poison ivy, off a cliff, and into a vat of liquid nitrogen.”

It’s worth noting that this projection sees a pretty substantial improvement in Escobar’s second full season, and that it’s much better than what they project for Yuni Betancourt. Escobar seems to be the biggest immediate loss of all the players they gave up.

Chris Dickerson

.256/.344/.388, 6 HRs, 1 SB, 0.5 WARP

The highest projected OBP by far out of the three of Dickerson, Gomez, and Morgan, and that’s the one the Brewers traded away for a league average at best reliever. Ugh.

Lorenzo Cain

.253/.318/.367, 6 HRs, 11 SBs, 0.4 WARP

While I think Lorenzo Cain will be a solid player, it’s nice to see the Brewers didn’t give up a projected star next season or anything. Cain had a very good debut with Milwaukee, but a lot of it was due to his unsustainable .370 BABIP.

————

Well, we’ve gone through pitching and hitting projections… So what’s the bottom line? The starting rotation should be pretty great, but you have to wonder about the defense and depth for the rest of the team. I wouldn’t call them the odds on favorite for the NL Central, but they’re one of them. As of February, BP had the Brewers projected for 85 wins. I’ll go out on a limb and say 87 wins, which will be within a game or so of Cincinnati either way. The Wildcard won’t come from the Central (should be either the Dodgers or Braves), so the Brewers will need to win the division to make the playoffs.

Should be an exciting season. Keep turnin’ up the heat.


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Hart signs extension

Posted on August 2, 2010 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

The Brewers made an interesting move for sure, as they signed Corey Hart to a three year deal reportedly worth $26.5 million. Headlines are calling it a three-year extension, but really it’s a three year deal and only a two year extension. Hart was under contract next season, and the deal includes next year, so it buys out two years of free agency.

This is a calculated risk. I love the fact that it’s only two more years. I was terrified it would be like a five year contract or something. Short term contracts are generally the way to go, as it minimizes risk. If Hart reverts to his 2008/2009 self, it would hurt–but it won’t be a franchise crippler the way Jeff Suppan’s contract was.

This is an interesting twist after the last few weeks of trade rumors surrounding Hart. The Brewers were strangely silent at the deadline. On one hand, it’s frustrating, but on the other, at least the didn’t make a trade just to make a trade, a la the Diamondbacks with Dan Haren. That deal was widely and almost unanimously panned as soon as it occurred. Do yourself a quick favor and check out GM Jerry DiPoto’s comments on the deal. An MLB GM using not only wins to justify a move, but minor league wins? I continue to be astounded by some of the people put in charge of teams.

So, yeah. If the Brewers weren’t going to get what they wanted for Hart, this is probably the best alternative. It would have been tough to replace both Fielder and Hart after 2011, and now they don’t have to. I don’t love it, because in essence the Brewers are buying fairly high on on of their own players. The writing is on the wall with Fielder, though; he’s as good as gone in the off-season. It sounds like the Brewers are interested in re-signing Rickie Weeks as well. Finally, they are sounding like they’ll move Mat Gamel around and try Brett Lawrie at third.

The question is who will replace Fielder at first? I’m not sure Gamel will hit enough to play there. Same goes for McGehee, who is a terrible defender at third. His days here should be numbered. Hart was a 1B in the minors, but that’s quite a long time ago now.

What I’d like to see will probably not happen, but I’ll throw it out there anyway: give Gamel a longer leash at third and move Ryan Braun to first. Braun was awful at third base, so they moved him to an easier position. Now, he’s still awful in left field. There’s only one easier position left, but they should give it a try. They need to do something to improve team defense. Replacing McGehee at third, Fielder at first, and Braun in left would go a long way towards accomplishing that.

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Deadline Week Cornucopia

Posted on July 27, 2010 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

A few things worth covering as we enter the last few days before the trade deadline.

————

Suddenly, the Brewers are on a hot streak. Monday’s win over the Reds was their fifth in a row and 11th in 15  games. The Brewers can’t even seem to lose correctly. This is the worst time of the season to be putting together a stretch like this. Sadly, it’s too little too late. Yet, the worrier in me is afraid it will convince the front office not to sell.

Even after this stretch, PECOTA has the Brewers with a 0.78% chance of making the playoffs. It’s nice to see them finally playing well, but a five game win streak over mostly the Pirates and Nationals in no way should convince them to pass on a good offer.

————

While we’re on the topic of things happening at the worst possible time, Corey Hart injured his wrist a few days ago. Thankfully it ended up not being serious, but I’m afraid he won’t get back on the field before Saturday’s deadline. That could kill what had been considerable interest in Hart around the league.

————

I naturally have been wrapped up with trade rumors in the last couple weeks, but I have to talk about my guy Rickie Weeks. My years of fanboydom have finally, FINALLY paid off. He is having a phenomenal offensive season. Factoring in position, Weeks has been the Brewers’ best player and one of the 10-15 most valuable players in the National League. I’m hoping the  Brewers are able to extend Weeks, but to this point we haven’t really heard anything either way about his interest in signing an extension. Plus, his price is going up just about every day. Not only for his hitting, but because he has to be the first player in MLB history to stay in a game after getting hit by a pitch in the head/face two years in a row.

————

It had been awhile, but my Brewer-related dreaming made a comeback. This one is easily traced back to the fact I was reading about trade rumors right before going to bed the other night. Here’s the scenario:

The Brewers had just pulled off a huge trade right before the deadline, but here’s the twist. I was the player who was traded! I had more or less taken the place of Prince Fielder. I was the big name player that teams had competed for to make a playoff push. I found out about the trade and headed to the airport, but I didn’t know where I was headed. A flight attendant came up to me with a giant gold envelope and said, “Sir, would you like to know where you’ve been traded to? You’re heading to… Colorado!”

My immediate response: “Okay… But who did the Brewers get in return?”

————

That’s pretty much everything I wanted to touch on. Enjoy the last few days of wild rumors.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, PLAYOFFS!?!?, Steve's Brewers/Baseball-related dreams, The legend of Rickie Weeks and his titanium skeletal system, Transactions

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Hold on to your butts…

Posted on July 22, 2010 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

It’s an exciting time to be a Brewer fan, but clearly it has nothing to do with the results on the field. I’ve been working second shift recently, so I listen to a bit of the game on my lunch. I’ve literally heard two innings of Brewer games the last two days, and in those two innings, they’ve given up a combined 14 runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Impressive.

No, my excitement actually stems from the looming trade deadline. We’re just about a week away, and the Brewers are front and center in trade rumors. It’s very exciting to be a buyer–the CC Sabathia trade remains the most exciting trade in my lifetime–but if you can’t be a buyer, being a seller is the next best place to be. The worst spot is the position the Brewers were in last year. They were around .500, and the writing was on the wall that they were probably going to miss the playoffs. Still, they weren’t far enough out to become sellers, and they didn’t have many tradable pieces, so they were stuck in no-man’s land.

There is a formula for being a big seller at the trade deadline. You don’t need to necessarily fit all three, but it helps.

1. You are clearly out of the playoff race.

2. You have premiere players.

3. Those players have short-term contracts–generally two years or less remaining before becoming free agents.

The Brewers have that formula. They’re certainly out of the playoff race. They have premiere players on short-term contracts (Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks). Therefore, they are in prime position to improve the talent for the future.

The Brewers don’t appear to be interested in trading Rickie Weeks. He’s a good candidate for an extension, and I expect them to make an offer in the off-season. Fielder and Hart, on the other hand, are garnering plenty of interest.

A few days ago I wrote that I didn’t expect Prince Fielder to be traded this season. I’m now amending that prediction: Fielder will either be a Brewer or a member of the Chicago White Sox after the trade deadline.

In the last day or two, reports have surfaced that the White Sox are pushing to acquire Fielder. I originally said the Brewers wouldn’t trade Fielder because they wouldn’t get good value during the season. Thing is, I didn’t expect the White Sox to be interested.

Things change if Kenny Williams is involved. He is an extremely aggressive (and largely successful) general manager who is known for his bold moves. If he is willing to acquire an injured Jake Peavy at the trade deadline when his team isn’t even in first place, as he did last season, there’s a good chance he’ll pony up for Prince Fielder.

So who would the Brewers get?

Based on reports, the one player that would certainly be in the deal is 23-year-old White Sox starting pitcher Daniel Hudson. Hudson is the best, most advanced pitching prospect the Sox have, and obviously, the Brewers are looking for pitching. Tom Haudricourt noted that the Brewers had a couple scouts watching Hudson’s last start. Interestingly, Ken Rosenthal reported Wednesday that the Brewers only view Hudson as a #3 or 4 starting pitcher, which obviously is not the type of return you’d be looking for for Prince.

However, I’m wondering if that isn’t a bit of posturing from the Brewers. Hudson’s numbers are quite impressive. Let’s compare his career minor league numbers to a mystery pitcher.

Mystery Man: 396 innings, 2.59 ERA, 10.4 strikeouts/9 innings, 3.2 strikeouts/walk, 0.4 home runs/9 innings

Daniel Hudson: 310 innings, 2.90 ERA, 10.6 strikeouts/9 innings, 4.18 strikeouts/walk, 0.7 home runs/9 innings

It’s fair to say that Hudson at least holds his own compared to our Mystery Man.

So who is this pitcher Hudson is being compared to?

Those minor league numbers belong to none other than Yovani Gallardo.

Now, there is a reason teams employ scouts, and scouts don’t seem to think Hudson has quite the ceiling that Gallardo did. Hudson entered this season as Baseball America’s number 66 prospect, while Gallardo was as high as 16. Still, Hudson has the production that leads me to believe he’ll be a front-end starter. Certainly, he profiles as a better pitcher than anyone the Brewers have besides Yo.

Still, to move Fielder now, rather than in the off-season, the Brewers should want much more than just Hudson. If you’re at all familiar with the White Sox, your mind should immediately go to infielder Gordon Beckham.

Beckham was projected to be an absolute stud. He was the eighth overall pick in 2008, and he cruised through the minors. Entering 2009, he was Baseball America’s 20th best prospect. Scouts compared his game to Michael Young. The Sox called him up last season, and he put up a very solid .808 OPS at age 22. Entering this season, he was among the most untradable  players in baseball.

Normally, I would just assume Beckham was untouchable, but like I said, you just never know with Kenny Williams. As often happens with young players, Beckham has struggled mightily this season (though he has torn it up this month–a sign that he could be turning things around). Beckham’s struggles may be enough to convince Williams that he could be traded if the right opportunity arose.

Sure enough, it seems the Brewers are thinking the same thing. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted today (sigh… just embrace it), “The White Sox are interested in Prince Fielder; it appears they probably can’t make a deal unless they offer Gordon Beckham in the package.”

This is what I like to see–some out of the box thinking from Melvin. Everyone just assumes the Brewers would ask for pitching for Fielder, and they should–if it’s available. But they shouldn’t trade for inferior talent just because it happens to be in the form of pitching. Like a player draft, they should always target the best player available. It doesn’t matter that the Brewers are presumably set at infield in the future between Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Brett Lawrie and Rickie Weeks. Beckham is the best young talent the White Sox have, so that’s who the Crew should be targeting. Acquiring Beckham would simply give the Brewers an opportunity to trade an infielder for pitching. Rickie Weeks or Mat Gamel could bring back a pitcher. Heck, I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Brewers flip Beckham. Plenty of teams with better pitching prospects than the White Sox would love to have him.

The Brewers are firmly in the drivers’ seat this deadline, with both Prince Fielder and Corey Hart. Particularly with Fielder, teams realize the Brewers would be perfectly content to keep him at least until the off-season. Doug Melvin shouldn’t be calling anyone; rather, he should be sitting back and letting others call him. He should be waiting for someone to wow him.

The only question left is whether Kenny Williams will do it.

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Hart, Fielder, or both?

Posted on July 13, 2010 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

With the Brewers out of the race already (okay, they were never in it), rumors are flying about who might be traded. The big name everyone’s been talking about for some time is Prince Fielder. With Scott Boras as his agent, it’s a foregone conclusion that Fielder won’t re-sign before hitting free agency. The expectation is that the Brewers will eventually trade Fielder, but I’m not sure if that will be soon.

Right now, Corey Hart is the subject of more rumors than Fielder. There are a number of reasons for that. Hart is unexpectedly having a great season, which has raised his value immensely. He makes less money than Fielder this season (and next almost for sure). He plays outfield, which is currently in higher demand than first basemen.

Meanwhile, everyone knows Prince Fielder is a rental. Both he and Hart have 1.5 years before reaching free agency, but Fielder and Boras have made it known they’re going to free agency. He’ll cost more than Hart in terms of prospects.

If I had to guess, I’d say Hart will be traded at this deadline and that Fielder will be kept until the off-season.

At first glance, it seems the Brewers would get the most value for Fielder if they traded him now. After all, a team trading for him now would get Fielder for two playoff pushes rather than one (if they waited until the off-season). However, there are likely to be more suitors for Fielder in the off-season. Right now, only contenders who have a spot available at first base and DH are possible suitors for Fielder. In the off-season, any team could go for him. It’s also easier to work three-team trades or larger deals in the off-season when teams have more room in their budget. For these reasons, I’m guessing Melvin won’t be blown away by an offer.

Hart is a different story. His value is at an all-time high, and Melvin would be smart to move him before he goes all Bill Hall on him. While we haven’t heard much about specific teams interested in Fielder, there have been reports in the last two weeks that the Giants, Braves, Rays, and Padres have expressed interest.

As for what the Brewers might get, it’s very difficult to gauge trade value as simply a fan, but I would hope for a B level starting pitching prospect that has one year or less of Major League Service time. Based on what I’ve read, I’ll throw out a guess of Hart and Todd Coffey to the Rays for Wade Davis.

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Has anyone noticed…

Posted on June 14, 2010 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

There has been a lot of interesting storylines with the Brewers lately that aren’t being talked about as much as they should. For instance, has anyone noticed…

…how TERRIBLE Ryan Braun has been?

Sure, we’re hearing about Ryan Braun’s slump. He hasn’t hit many home runs. He’s struggling to see the ball, blah blah blah. But we aren’t hearing enough about just how awful it’s been. It is undoubtedly the worst stretch of his career.

Since the Arizona series that ended May 9, Braun has a line of .228/.267/.374 for a cool .641 OPS. A .267 OBP… That’s Alexei Ramirez territory.

Braun is completely lost at the plate. His discipline is shot. In a bad slump, walks are almost always down. The player swings at more bad pitches or pitchers’ pitches and gets himself out more often. Sure enough, that’s exactly what’s happened to Braun. Through that Arizona series, he had drawn 18 walks in 146 plate appearances. Since, he’s drawn six walks in 131 plate appearances.

This means that, for the second time in three seasons, Braun is likely going to get an undeserved start in the All-Star Game. Most of the voting was a result of his torrid start (and his popularity), but as of today, among qualified NL outfielders, Braun ranks 14th in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging percentage, 13th in OPS, and tenth in weighted on base average. It’s incredible how far he’s fallen after such an amazing start.

…how weird Corey Hart’s line is?

Corey Hart is on a serious home run binge, which has led to comments like, “Hart’s absolutely on fire!” Except… He’s really not. He’s just hitting a lot of home runs.

His home run stretch started 28 games ago against Philadelphia. Since then he has 14 homers, and amazingly, leads the NL in home runs. But in that same stretch, he has a pedestrian batting average/on-base percentage of .264/.331. Compare that to his start of the season, when he hit just three home runs in 103 plate appearances. During that stretch, his batting average/on-base percentage was a comparable .247/.340.

It’s very odd that Hart could pile up a bunch of home runs without really getting on base any more than he did at the start of the season. In fact, he has a fairly poor on-base percentage on the season.

So what does it mean? Maybe nothing, other than supply me with something to talk about. But to me, it means that Hart should be traded. As long as Hart’s name tops the NL home run leaders, his value is high. The Brewers practically tried to give Hart away in the off-season and didn’t have any takers. Doug Melvin needs to realize that the Brewers aren’t going anywhere this season and that Hart’s value is higher to a contending team than it is hitting meaningless home runs for the Brewers. The surprising Padres seem like a perfect fit. They have a good record despite awful production from their outfield. Hart would be a nice addition to that team. Meanwhile, it would give the Brewers an opportunity to add prospects, cut salary, and give them a chance to play Lorenzo Cain the rest of the season.

… that maybe, just maybe, I was right about Casey McGehee after all?

I’m a bit ashamed of myself. I’m a firm believer that you need at least 1500 MLB plate appearances before you have a good idea of a hitter’s talent. Yet, just a month or so ago I allowed myself to fall into the trap of McGehee’s hot start and declare myself wrong on him–after only about 600 plate appearances!

McGehee has been in a horrendous slump himself, and it may just be that he’s regressing to where he should be. McGehee has a .615 OPS in the last month, which drops his season numbers to a pretty average .800 OPS for the season.

I don’t mean to sound like I’m rooting against McGehee, but I’ll say that I still have higher hopes for Mat Gamel long term than I do for McGehee. Gamel’s off to a nice start in AAA since his recent return from injury, and assuming Ken Macha is fired/not retained after the season, he’ll have a chance to start fresh in the organization.

…how awesome George Kottaras is?

Alright, so his defense is pretty terrible at this point. But I am in love with his batting eye. He’s cooled off a bit recently, but his line on the season is .194/.361/.430. That’s a very solid line for a catcher, albeit a strange one. Kottaras has 18 hits on the season, but 26 walks! I liked when Macha dabbled with him in the second spot a few times, and certainly prefer that to Carlos Gomez or Alcides Escobar.

I’m excited about the Brewers catching outlook in the next few seasons. Even with Angel Salome’s bizarre decision to switch from catcher to outfielder, I think the Brewers are in good hands. Lucroy has impressed me with his defense, and Kottaras has a pretty good bat.

…that Ken Macha is back to abusing Gallardo?

This is the main reason I’d be fine with letting Macha go (along with his poor handling of young players). He is managing like the Brewers are in a pennant race. There’s no reason to be handling Gallardo this way. Look at his rising pitch counts since May 1.

121
103
108
120
106
121
114
110
118

There’s no reason to be leaving Gallardo in for that many pitches on a consistent basis. The Brewers aren’t going anywhere, not to mention the fact they just committed millions to Gallardo’s arm.

I’m envisioning this scenario, which seems very realistic in my mind.

It’s September. Prince Fielder and Corey Hart have been traded. Casey McGehee is playing first base on a regular basis. Mat Gamel and Lorenzo Cain are up from the minors. The Brewers are well out of it, but I go to a game anyway to see the young players. Only I arrive to find that Craig Counsell is starting at third over Gamel, and Jim Edmonds is starting over Lorenzo Cain. Gallardo throws 122 pitches.

Does that really seem that farfetched? Even though I don’t think it really matters if Macha is fired, this scenario is my biggest reason in favor of that move.

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Corey Hart wears Jeff Francoeur sunglasses at night

Posted on February 12, 2010 by | 5 Comments

Posted by Steve

Man alive, do I hate the way baseball players are evaluated by those who matter.  I should have known better yesterday when I said Corey Hart would lose his case, but I didn’t–I was absolutely shocked to see he somehow managed to win.

I have no idea what Hart’s team could have said to make an *actual* case, but it’s likely that the case they made featured the following two arguments.

1. Hart is a former All-Star

2. A comparable player who is also in his second year of arbitration, Jeff Francoeur, was given $5 million to avoid an arbitration hearing.

The first point is asinine and shouldn’t matter at all.  The fact that two years ago Hart made the All-Star team should not trump the fact that he’s been a bad baseball player since he made the team–that’s a year and a half of poor production.

The second point, which I had not realized until today, bothers me even more.  My original, and probably melodramatic title to this post was ‘Jeff Francoeur is the root of all baseball evil,’ but that was probably a bit harsh.  Still, Jeff Francoeur is terrible.  Just God-awful.  His career on-base percentage is .311.  That’s poor for a catcher, much less a freaking corner outfielder.  His career walk rate is 4.7%!  Because no pitcher needs to throw him a strike, watching him hit is a comedy (unless he’s on your team; then it’s a tragedy).  Swinging at everything, missing sliders by a mile, never drawing walks.  You’re thinking, ‘Ooh!  Ooh!  That’s Corey Hart!’  It’s actually Francoeur.  He out-Harts Corey Hart by a mile.  Corey Hart wears Jeff Francoeur sunglasses at night.  Googling ‘Jeff Francoeur hacker’ actually yields 241,000 hits.  The proudest moment of his career should be being the answer to the question, “Who graces the cover of the most wrong Sports Illustrated issue of all time?”

Should I go on?

Alright, I will.  That this man’s representatives convinced a GENERAL MANAGER OF A MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL TEAM to give him FIVE MILLION U.S. DOLLARS for this next season is the biggest upset since this guy pulled this off.  Francoeur’s agent should be named Time Magazine’s Man of the Year.  Francoeur is a replacement level player!  He probably shouldn’t even be in the Major Leagues!  Yet because Omar Minaya was somehow duped into giving him this outrageous salary, it helps Corey Hart win his case.  Infuriating.

(As an aside, this is why I’m currently so down on the business side of the game.  Teams cite their budget as reasons they can’t hire as many baseball ops employees, but then they go and give out deals like this one.  You’re willing to burn up 5 million dollars (“burn up 5 million dollars” is the unofficial term for “pay Jeff Francoeur anything to play baseball”), but you won’t pay 25 grand to qualified people from BIS or anywhere else who are willing to bust their asses working for you?  You know what, Omar?  If you paid me 25 grand to come work for you, I could come up with some great research that says DON’T PAY JEFF FRANCOEUR FIVE MILLION DOLLARS, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! (Jeff Francoeur is so terrible that he has now caused me to break my capslock and parentheses keys.))

*deep breaths…*

Back to my original point, before I forget what it even was.  This is annoying.  700k isn’t a ton in baseball terms, but it can be the difference between being able to add a player down the stretch or not.  I’m not at all mad at Hart for wanting more money.  Good for him; obviously he knew what he was doing.  I’m just baffled that people could be legally convinced that he was deserving of this raise.

Anyway, this is a small blip.  If Hart doesn’t earn this money, it really doesn’t matter, because he certainly won’t be tendered a contract next year when he’ll be due over $6 million.  He’s the one person with reasonable room to improve, and therefore he’s an important part of the offense this season.  The Brewers need him to perform, and if he does, this will all be forgotten.

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Money! It’s a gas.

Posted on February 11, 2010 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Fans seem to have strong feelings when it comes to player salaries.  Many chastise a player for holding out for more money and celebrate the one who re-signs long-term.  I can see why, because when most players make more in a year than the average person makes in a lifetime, people are bound to be put off.

On the slim chance that anyone actually cares, here are my thoughts on the matter.  Yes, baseball players are paid obscene amounts of money.  No, they aren’t as important as firefighters, doctors, teachers, plumbers, etc.  But let me ask this.  Are millions of people willing to pay 30+ bucks a pop to go watch those people work?  People are willing to pay that to watch baseball players.  That’s why I can’t agree with those who hold salaries of professional athletes against them.  The demand for their profession is huge, and simple economics say when something is in high demand, cost goes up.  Aren’t you going to collect your money if you win the lottery?  These people won the lottery with their talent.

I also don’t understand changing feelings about a player based on his decision to sign long-term somewhere.  Players are taking calculated risks by signing or refusing those extensions.  A few years ago, the Brewers approached both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder with extensions.  These offers were team-friendly, but also made sure the player got paid big money much earlier than if he’d have gone through the three-year pre-arby pay scale.

As we all know, Braun signed his deal and Prince did not.  Braun was lauded and Prince was grumbled about.  Some even interpreted it as Braun liking Milwaukee and Prince wanting to get out.  I’d be shocked if things were that cut and dried.  What it more than likely came down to is this:  Braun decided financial security was important to him, while Prince instead wanted to hold out for a bigger payday.

Here’s the interesting part.  A couple years later, with the huge benefit of hindsight, Prince Fielder looks a lot smarter than Ryan Braun.  Prince put up massive numbers and is poised to receive at least double what the Brewers offered a couple years ago.  Meanwhile, after Braun’s great 2009, think of what he could demand now if he hadn’t signed his extension.  It would literally be several million dollars more.  I’m not saying Braun made the “wrong” move, because of course he didn’t have the benefit of hindsight that we do now.  If he had known he’d stay healthy and put up two monster seasons, maybe he wouldn’t have signed his extension.  He chose security in case of injury or drop in production.  Neither has occurred yet, but you can’t blame him for protecting himself–just as you can’t blame Prince for taking a gamble that has paid off in a big way.  I’ll certainly have more to say on Fielder’s contract situation as the season goes on, as the possibility of making a much larger offer has become a big issue once again.

Alright.  So now that that’s out of the way, how does this apply to the Brewers’ current situation, namely, Corey Hart’s?  Hart is another player who turned down an extension a couple years ago, and unlike Prince Fielder’s, Hart’s decision has not paid off.  His production has dropped pretty severely in the last couple seasons, to the point where many teams would no longer consider him a starter.

Hart is of course making headlines currently due to his “record-breaking” arbitration case taking place today.  I say record-breaking because he is the first Brewer to actually reach arbitration since Doug Melvin has been GM.  Every other player over the years has been able to reach a middle ground with the Brewers and avoid the undesirable outcome of the team listing off all the reasons he doesn’t deserve the money he’s requesting.

Players who go through arbitration generally receive raises no matter how they performed the previous season.  It seems strange, but it makes up for their first three seasons of league-minimum salary.  Last year, Corey Hart made $3.25 million.  In arbitration this season, he filed for $4.8, while the Brewers offered $4.15.  In my opinion (and the Brewers’, obviously), $4.8 is too huge of a raise for a guy who missed time last season and didn’t hit well when he was healthy (.753 OPS).  Hart rejected a raise that was likely more than a million dollars (the Brewers meet in the middle of those two figures to avoid arbitration, so somewhere around $4.4 million is what Hart is likely turning down.)  Like I said earlier, I don’t blame a guy for asking for more money, but Hart is overstepping his bounds here.  He’s coming off two consecutive poor seasons, and he’s saying a million bucks isn’t enough of a raise.  He’s not going to win his case, and he’s going to have to sit through all the reasons why before the panel chooses the Brewers’ offer (there’s no settling in this system; the panel chooses either the team’s figure or the player’s figure).

I guess all this rambling (boy, that was a lot of rambling, huh?) goes to show that you just never know what the right choice is when it comes to these pre-arbitration extensions.  They’ve paid off for the Brewers in the cases of Ben Sheets and Ryan Braun, but they’ve been burned by Bill Hall, and they would have been burned had Hart not rejected his.  Picking their spots for extensions is one of the most important thing for smaller market teams to do.  If it’s done right, you can get long-term production at a great value.  If it’s not, it can strap a team for years.

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