Posted by Steve
It’s been quite awhile since I’ve posted, but that’s partially because it’s been quite awhile since there’s been any Brewer-related news to discuss. Since the Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins signings, the Brewers haven’t done too much. Look for things to pick up in the next few weeks, as they’ll likely add another pitcher. I’m hoping for John Smoltz but am expecting Jarrod Washburn or Doug Davis, which frankly doesn’t excite me–especially if it’s a two year deal.
Until something happens though, we need something to talk about, right? I thought I’d take a look at whether the Brewers have actually improved this off-season. It’s clear Randy Wolf is an upgrade over Braden Looper and therefore improves the pitching, but does that necessarily mean the team will be better? If you recall, I thought entering last season the Brewers might stay afloat despite their loss of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia because of a likely improvement of their offense. That offense did improve quite a bit, but the pitching was simply too bad.
In 2010, the pitching will most likely be better, but I’m not sure it will be enough to overcome a likely decline in offensive production.
Using an admittedly simplistic method of comparing 2009 win shares of the key players leaving this season to the win shares of the players joining the team can give us a general idea of where the team currently stands in comparison to 2009. I’m choosing to leave off bit players like Mike Rivera (deptarting) or Trent Oeltjen (arriving) because it’s unclear what role these players will play, or in some cases, who will fill the vacant position. It’s unclear whether the backup catcher will be George Kottaras, Jonathan Lucroy or Angel Salome, for example.
WAR stands for win shares above replacement. If a player has a WAR of 1.0, it means the formula finds his performance worth one more win than if a replacement level player filled the exact same role. At the risk of going off on a tangent, replacement level is defined as the expected level of performance the average team can obtain if it needs to replace a starting player at minimal cost. In other words, a replacement level player is a scrub–generally a player who spends his career bouncing from the majors to the minors. Players have generally gone for about $4.25-$4.5 million per win on the open market, which is how Fangraphs calculates their dollar value amounts. For example, Randy Wolf had a WAR of 3.0, which means (according to Fangraphs) he was “worth” $13.5 million in 2009.
Here’s the 2009 WAR of the players in question.
Mike Cameron: 4.3
J.J. Hardy: 1.4
Braden Looper: -0.9
Mark DiFelice: 0.4
Jason Kendall: 1.2
Total: 6.4 Wins
Randy Wolf: 3.0 WAR
Carlos Gomez: 0.7 WAR
LaTroy Hawkins: 0.3
Gregg Zaun: 1.8
Total: 5.8 Wins
Now, before you go panicking that the Brewers aren’t any better, there are several things to consider here. Simply taking all these players’ 2009 performances and translating them to 2010 doesn’t work. Obviously, some will improve and some will decline.
The Brewers pick up a huge gain in going from Braden Looper, who was actually below replacement, to Randy Wolf (not-so-fun fact: The Brewers actually had two pitchers in their rotation who were below replacement level last year in Looper and Jeff Suppan). Most, if not all of that gain is lost, however, in downgrading from Mike Cameron to Carlos Gomez. The Brewers are banking seriously on improvement from Carlos Gomez if they’re willing to hand him the centerfield job, which seems to be the case. Expecting some improvement from Gomez isn’t unreasonable, as he just turned 24. Still, he’ll almost certainly be a far cry from Mike Cameron in terms of overall value.
There are other things to consider. Alcides Escobar’s WAR needs to be considered, but it’s difficult to calculate with just his 2009 numbers. Simply taking his 2009 WAR and extrapolating it over a full season wouldn’t be too accurate because his 134 plate appearances is such a small sample size with which to work.
I was also unsure what to do with the second base situation. Felipe Lopez and Rickie Weeks combined for great production from that position. Lopez is gone, and Weeks is returning from injury, so I wasn’t sure how to use that.
Fangraphs does allow its users to project seasons, so I thought I’d throw this out here for kicks. These are how Fangraphs’ users (likely just a bunch of baseball geeks like myself, or even geekier) project those players’ performance in 2010. I’ll add Lopez and Weeks in this version. This is probably the result we should be more concerned with as far as whether the Crew has improved.
Mike Cameron: 3.6 Slight decline projected for Cameron; not unreasonable at his age
J.J. Hardy: 3.4 Pretty large rebound projected for Hardy, which doesn’t surprise me.
Braden Looper: 0.5 Nobody even bothered to project for poor Braden, but I figured it was reasonable to assume he’d be slightly better than the gawdawfulness of -0.9 he displayed last season, since he’d never been that bad before. I decided on 0.5.
Mark DiFelice: 0.4 DiFelice is unfortunately out for the year, so we’ll stick with his 2009 production, since it still needs to be replaced somehow.
Jason Kendall: 0.9 Fangraphs expects him to be even worse. Oh Royals, what were you thinking?
Felipe Lopez: 2.6 Lopez’s WAR between Arizon and Milwaukee was an outstanding 4.6 last year, so they’re expecting a decline.
Total: 11.4 Wins
Alcides Escobar: 2.4 I have to think the Brewers would be pleased with this production in Escobar’s rookie season.
Randy Wolf: 3.0 They expect a very similar year for Wolf.
LaTroy Hawkins: 0.3 Nobody bothered to project Hawkins either. He’s been between 0.3 and 0.8 each of the last four seasons. I’ll go with 0.3 to be safe.
Gregg Zaun: 1.4 Slight decline expected from Zaun, but still a pretty safe bet to out-produce Jason Kendall.
Carlos Gomez: 1.1 Another one without a WAR projection, but I’ll base this on Bill James’ projection. James has Gomez improving a bit offensively, so I bumped him from .7 in 2009 to 1.1 in 2010. As we know, Gomez’s value, if he’s going to have any, will come from his defense.
Rickie Weeks: 3.9 A pretty optimistic projection for Weeks, one that would require him to finally stay healthy all season in order to reach.
Total Wins: 12.1
At least that looks a little better. Again, I’m not calling this anything close to foolproof. It’s still thrown off by the fact that Lopez and Weeks split second base last season, and obviously these are simply projections. Still, it seems like the changes they’ve made made don’t amount to much more than a wash. It certainly changes if they add another starter and bump Jeff Suppan out of the rotation, but until then, the Brewers look like a .500-ish team again to me. I’ll get into this more in the future, but while I figured the offense would improve from 2008 to 2009, it’s almost certain to decline this year. Not just going from Mike Cameron to Carlos Gomez, but elsewhere too. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are likely to decline some–both had fantastic years that out-produced their projections. Casey McGehee is likely to decline. Rickie Weeks is likely not going to put up the numbers that the Weeks/Lopez platoon did last season. Really, the only regular player with reasonable expectation for improvement is Corey Hart, and even he has become nearly impossible to figure out.
If the Brewers do add a starter, it’s probable that they’ll be an 80-85 win team at that point, which is talented enough to get into the playoffs if some luck goes your way. Still, they’re very unlikely to unseat the Cardinals as the favorites entering the season.