Tag Archives: Prince Fielder

So, what next?

Posted on November 17, 2010 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

It’s getting to be that time. The baseball off-season is upon us. Baseball’s off-season is, without a doubt, the most entertaining off-season in major U.S. sports. Trading is rampant, and we usually see at least one three-team deal. We’ve already had our first major trade of the year. The GM meetings are underway, and the Winter Meetings are just a couple weeks off. Ohhh boy.

As far as the Brewers are concerned, they could go in any number of directions. Trade Prince Fielder or keep him? Trade prospects or target them? Heck, there’s even been rumblings of Ryan Braun being available, though I’d be shocked if he was traded.

Most people will say the Brewers’ most glaring weakness in 2010 was their starting rotation. As is often the case, most people are wrong. Ha, just kidding… But I don’t actually think their rotation was their biggest problem. Their pitching was below average, but it was made even worse because of their awful defense.

The Brewers had the biggest gap in the National League between their starting rotation’s ERA (4.65) and their starting rotation’s xFIP (4.40). xFIP is like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) except it “normalizes” it based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predictor of a pitcher’s future ERA (Explanation taken from The Hardball Times).

Anywho, all I’m saying in that long-winded paragraph is that the pitching was made worse by the Brewers’ terrible team defense. Fielder, Braun, Hart, and McGehee were all well below average. At least one of those players needs to be replaced with a defensive upgrade, or the pitching won’t look great next year either.

The Brewers had enough problems last season that they could conceivably trade Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, hoard young players, punt 2011, and reload for 2012. At the same time, the division looks to be quite winnable. The Brewers have a lot to improve upon from last season, but at the same time, a few shrewd moves could put them right back in contention. There are many scenarios, but the main issue this off-season revolves around whether they hold on to Fielder. Let’s look at each scenario.

Prince Fielder is traded

Let’s say Fielder is traded–something most media members seem to expect. We have to assume the Brewers will get a MLB-ready pitcher from this deal, presumably a fairly young one. The question then becomes: Who will replace Fielder? Do they move Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee to first? Do they sign a free agent first baseman, say, Derek Lee, to replace Fielder? Or do they go a bit further outside the box and move one of their below average defenders in the corner outfield, Ryan Braun or Corey Hart, to first base? And if they do that, do they try and break the bank for Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford? Doubtful, but the Brewers do have a good chunk of money to spend this off-season.

Prince Fielder is kept

Let’s say the Brewers don’t find a deal they love and decide to hold on to Fielder. How, then, do they acquire pitching? Do they try the free agent route again? That hasn’t worked very well for them in recent years. They’re not going to be serious players for Cliff Lee. Hiroki Kuroda was someone I would have loved to see in a Brewer uniform, but the Dodgers just re-signed him. Still, there are possible values out there: Carl Pavano, Bronson Arroyo, and Vicente Padilla were all better than everyone on the Brewers but Yovani Gallardo last season. There are also some great buy-low candidates: Brandon Webb, Javier Vazquez, Erik Bedard, or Justin Duchscherer could bring real value.

Otherwise, there’s the trade route. But if not Fielder, who do they trade? Rickie Weeks has great value, but Brett Lawrie isn’t ready quite yet to fill in at second. Please no McGehee at second; he was bad enough at third. They could trade Braun and presumably get a great pitcher back.  Braun, however, is a great hitter made even more valuable by his team-friendly contract. Plus, the Brewers would be faced with having neither Fielder nor Braun in 2012 and beyond. Other candidates for a trade would be Casey McGehee, Mat Gamel, or any of their prospects.

So, what will happen?

All we’ve really done so far is discuss endless possibilities, and that really only muddled the situation. Now that we’ve been over the different possibilities, I suppose you want to know what will actually happen. Here’s what I’ll call…

Steve’s best guess

If someone for some reason held a gun to my head and forced me to say whether the Brewers will trade Prince Fielder this off-season, my answer would actually be no. I could certainly be wrong, but I just don’t expect them to get the value they want for him. He’s only got one year left, plays the easiest position on the diamond, and teams have other viable options at first base on the free agent market. If yesterday was any indication of what a slugger with one year until free agency is worth, things aren’t too encouraging. Dan Uggla was more valuable than Prince Fielder last year (based on positional value), and all the Marlins got was Omar Infante and Mike Dunn (a promising-looking pitcher but only a reliever). If that’s the return the Brewers are looking at for Prince, I really hope they’d pass.

Instead, I’m guessing they hold on to Prince and use prospects to trade for pitching. My guess is Brett Lawrie is as likely as anyone in the Brewers’ organization to be dealt. He’s a great positional prospect, yet he’s expendable if the Brewers re-sign Rickie Weeks. Lawrie can be used as a main piece to acquire an impact pitcher.

I might as well throw out my dream scenario. Notice I said dream scenario and not pipe dream, because I believe it’s quite attainable. If I’m Doug Melvin, I’m making a serious run at Zack Greinke.

Here’s why I really think it could happen. First, it’s been reported that the Royals are listening to offers. Dayton Moore (incidentally, a bad GM) has admitted that he’ll need to trade Greinke if they can’t work out an extension. Secondly, Doug Melvin has shown he’s willing to trade elite prospects for elite pitchers. Obviously there’s CC Sabathia, but there’s even the deal with Toronto last year for Roy Halladay that Halladay vetoed; you can bet Lawrie was in that deal. Third, it could happen because there’s a good chance Greinke would allow it. He has the ability to block a trade to 20 teams. Normally that would mean Milwaukee would be out, but it has been widely reported that Greinke has no desire to pitch in New York or a big market. Finally, the Brewers can afford his $13.5 million contract each of the next two seasons while other small or mid-market teams may not be able to.

Those are all things working in the Brewers’ favor with Greinke.

So, here’s my dream off-season that’s so dreamy that it will never come true:

  • Keep Prince Fielder unless you get blown away. Re-examine a trade at the trade deadline.
  • Send a package that includes anything up to both Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi as the main pieces for Zack Greinke. If they prefer Mark Rogers or Jeremy Jeffress instead, fine. That’s a ton to give up, but the division is winnable, and neither Lawrie nor Odorizzi will contribute next season at the major league level.
  • Extend Rickie Weeks, as he will now be needed long-term with Lawrie gone.
  • Sign one of the free agent starters I mentioned above to a short-term contract.
  • We can’t forget about improving the defense. With Braun and Hart locked up long-term, and Fielder sticking around one more season, that means McGehee. Oh, by the way, Bill James has his 2011 projections out. His line for Casey McGehee: .282/.339/.451. His line for Mat Gamel: .287/.359/.469. Looks like I’m not the only one who prefers Gamel. Trade McGehee for the best value you can get, whether that is something at the MLB level or to replenish the farm system.

That leaves the Brewers with essentially the same good offense as 2010, except for Gamel in for McGehee. It gives them a starting rotation of:

1. Greinke
2. Gallardo
3. Wolf
4. Mystery Free Agent
5. Narveson/Parra/Capuano

The only downside is my scenario doesn’t improve the defense as much as I’d have liked. Still, it does switch out the slow-footed McGehee for the rangier Gamel at third.

That team is drastically better than last year’s and would certainly contend in the NL Central.

So, hop to it Doug. I’m sure it’s that easy, right?

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Posted in 2011 Hot Stove

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Hart signs extension

Posted on August 2, 2010 by | 1 Comment

Posted by Steve

The Brewers made an interesting move for sure, as they signed Corey Hart to a three year deal reportedly worth $26.5 million. Headlines are calling it a three-year extension, but really it’s a three year deal and only a two year extension. Hart was under contract next season, and the deal includes next year, so it buys out two years of free agency.

This is a calculated risk. I love the fact that it’s only two more years. I was terrified it would be like a five year contract or something. Short term contracts are generally the way to go, as it minimizes risk. If Hart reverts to his 2008/2009 self, it would hurt–but it won’t be a franchise crippler the way Jeff Suppan’s contract was.

This is an interesting twist after the last few weeks of trade rumors surrounding Hart. The Brewers were strangely silent at the deadline. On one hand, it’s frustrating, but on the other, at least the didn’t make a trade just to make a trade, a la the Diamondbacks with Dan Haren. That deal was widely and almost unanimously panned as soon as it occurred. Do yourself a quick favor and check out GM Jerry DiPoto’s comments on the deal. An MLB GM using not only wins to justify a move, but minor league wins? I continue to be astounded by some of the people put in charge of teams.

So, yeah. If the Brewers weren’t going to get what they wanted for Hart, this is probably the best alternative. It would have been tough to replace both Fielder and Hart after 2011, and now they don’t have to. I don’t love it, because in essence the Brewers are buying fairly high on on of their own players. The writing is on the wall with Fielder, though; he’s as good as gone in the off-season. It sounds like the Brewers are interested in re-signing Rickie Weeks as well. Finally, they are sounding like they’ll move Mat Gamel around and try Brett Lawrie at third.

The question is who will replace Fielder at first? I’m not sure Gamel will hit enough to play there. Same goes for McGehee, who is a terrible defender at third. His days here should be numbered. Hart was a 1B in the minors, but that’s quite a long time ago now.

What I’d like to see will probably not happen, but I’ll throw it out there anyway: give Gamel a longer leash at third and move Ryan Braun to first. Braun was awful at third base, so they moved him to an easier position. Now, he’s still awful in left field. There’s only one easier position left, but they should give it a try. They need to do something to improve team defense. Replacing McGehee at third, Fielder at first, and Braun in left would go a long way towards accomplishing that.

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Posted in Transactions

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Hold on to your butts…

Posted on July 22, 2010 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

It’s an exciting time to be a Brewer fan, but clearly it has nothing to do with the results on the field. I’ve been working second shift recently, so I listen to a bit of the game on my lunch. I’ve literally heard two innings of Brewer games the last two days, and in those two innings, they’ve given up a combined 14 runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Impressive.

No, my excitement actually stems from the looming trade deadline. We’re just about a week away, and the Brewers are front and center in trade rumors. It’s very exciting to be a buyer–the CC Sabathia trade remains the most exciting trade in my lifetime–but if you can’t be a buyer, being a seller is the next best place to be. The worst spot is the position the Brewers were in last year. They were around .500, and the writing was on the wall that they were probably going to miss the playoffs. Still, they weren’t far enough out to become sellers, and they didn’t have many tradable pieces, so they were stuck in no-man’s land.

There is a formula for being a big seller at the trade deadline. You don’t need to necessarily fit all three, but it helps.

1. You are clearly out of the playoff race.

2. You have premiere players.

3. Those players have short-term contracts–generally two years or less remaining before becoming free agents.

The Brewers have that formula. They’re certainly out of the playoff race. They have premiere players on short-term contracts (Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks). Therefore, they are in prime position to improve the talent for the future.

The Brewers don’t appear to be interested in trading Rickie Weeks. He’s a good candidate for an extension, and I expect them to make an offer in the off-season. Fielder and Hart, on the other hand, are garnering plenty of interest.

A few days ago I wrote that I didn’t expect Prince Fielder to be traded this season. I’m now amending that prediction: Fielder will either be a Brewer or a member of the Chicago White Sox after the trade deadline.

In the last day or two, reports have surfaced that the White Sox are pushing to acquire Fielder. I originally said the Brewers wouldn’t trade Fielder because they wouldn’t get good value during the season. Thing is, I didn’t expect the White Sox to be interested.

Things change if Kenny Williams is involved. He is an extremely aggressive (and largely successful) general manager who is known for his bold moves. If he is willing to acquire an injured Jake Peavy at the trade deadline when his team isn’t even in first place, as he did last season, there’s a good chance he’ll pony up for Prince Fielder.

So who would the Brewers get?

Based on reports, the one player that would certainly be in the deal is 23-year-old White Sox starting pitcher Daniel Hudson. Hudson is the best, most advanced pitching prospect the Sox have, and obviously, the Brewers are looking for pitching. Tom Haudricourt noted that the Brewers had a couple scouts watching Hudson’s last start. Interestingly, Ken Rosenthal reported Wednesday that the Brewers only view Hudson as a #3 or 4 starting pitcher, which obviously is not the type of return you’d be looking for for Prince.

However, I’m wondering if that isn’t a bit of posturing from the Brewers. Hudson’s numbers are quite impressive. Let’s compare his career minor league numbers to a mystery pitcher.

Mystery Man: 396 innings, 2.59 ERA, 10.4 strikeouts/9 innings, 3.2 strikeouts/walk, 0.4 home runs/9 innings

Daniel Hudson: 310 innings, 2.90 ERA, 10.6 strikeouts/9 innings, 4.18 strikeouts/walk, 0.7 home runs/9 innings

It’s fair to say that Hudson at least holds his own compared to our Mystery Man.

So who is this pitcher Hudson is being compared to?

Those minor league numbers belong to none other than Yovani Gallardo.

Now, there is a reason teams employ scouts, and scouts don’t seem to think Hudson has quite the ceiling that Gallardo did. Hudson entered this season as Baseball America’s number 66 prospect, while Gallardo was as high as 16. Still, Hudson has the production that leads me to believe he’ll be a front-end starter. Certainly, he profiles as a better pitcher than anyone the Brewers have besides Yo.

Still, to move Fielder now, rather than in the off-season, the Brewers should want much more than just Hudson. If you’re at all familiar with the White Sox, your mind should immediately go to infielder Gordon Beckham.

Beckham was projected to be an absolute stud. He was the eighth overall pick in 2008, and he cruised through the minors. Entering 2009, he was Baseball America’s 20th best prospect. Scouts compared his game to Michael Young. The Sox called him up last season, and he put up a very solid .808 OPS at age 22. Entering this season, he was among the most untradable  players in baseball.

Normally, I would just assume Beckham was untouchable, but like I said, you just never know with Kenny Williams. As often happens with young players, Beckham has struggled mightily this season (though he has torn it up this month–a sign that he could be turning things around). Beckham’s struggles may be enough to convince Williams that he could be traded if the right opportunity arose.

Sure enough, it seems the Brewers are thinking the same thing. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted today (sigh… just embrace it), “The White Sox are interested in Prince Fielder; it appears they probably can’t make a deal unless they offer Gordon Beckham in the package.”

This is what I like to see–some out of the box thinking from Melvin. Everyone just assumes the Brewers would ask for pitching for Fielder, and they should–if it’s available. But they shouldn’t trade for inferior talent just because it happens to be in the form of pitching. Like a player draft, they should always target the best player available. It doesn’t matter that the Brewers are presumably set at infield in the future between Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Brett Lawrie and Rickie Weeks. Beckham is the best young talent the White Sox have, so that’s who the Crew should be targeting. Acquiring Beckham would simply give the Brewers an opportunity to trade an infielder for pitching. Rickie Weeks or Mat Gamel could bring back a pitcher. Heck, I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Brewers flip Beckham. Plenty of teams with better pitching prospects than the White Sox would love to have him.

The Brewers are firmly in the drivers’ seat this deadline, with both Prince Fielder and Corey Hart. Particularly with Fielder, teams realize the Brewers would be perfectly content to keep him at least until the off-season. Doug Melvin shouldn’t be calling anyone; rather, he should be sitting back and letting others call him. He should be waiting for someone to wow him.

The only question left is whether Kenny Williams will do it.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2010, Transactions

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Hart, Fielder, or both?

Posted on July 13, 2010 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

With the Brewers out of the race already (okay, they were never in it), rumors are flying about who might be traded. The big name everyone’s been talking about for some time is Prince Fielder. With Scott Boras as his agent, it’s a foregone conclusion that Fielder won’t re-sign before hitting free agency. The expectation is that the Brewers will eventually trade Fielder, but I’m not sure if that will be soon.

Right now, Corey Hart is the subject of more rumors than Fielder. There are a number of reasons for that. Hart is unexpectedly having a great season, which has raised his value immensely. He makes less money than Fielder this season (and next almost for sure). He plays outfield, which is currently in higher demand than first basemen.

Meanwhile, everyone knows Prince Fielder is a rental. Both he and Hart have 1.5 years before reaching free agency, but Fielder and Boras have made it known they’re going to free agency. He’ll cost more than Hart in terms of prospects.

If I had to guess, I’d say Hart will be traded at this deadline and that Fielder will be kept until the off-season.

At first glance, it seems the Brewers would get the most value for Fielder if they traded him now. After all, a team trading for him now would get Fielder for two playoff pushes rather than one (if they waited until the off-season). However, there are likely to be more suitors for Fielder in the off-season. Right now, only contenders who have a spot available at first base and DH are possible suitors for Fielder. In the off-season, any team could go for him. It’s also easier to work three-team trades or larger deals in the off-season when teams have more room in their budget. For these reasons, I’m guessing Melvin won’t be blown away by an offer.

Hart is a different story. His value is at an all-time high, and Melvin would be smart to move him before he goes all Bill Hall on him. While we haven’t heard much about specific teams interested in Fielder, there have been reports in the last two weeks that the Giants, Braves, Rays, and Padres have expressed interest.

As for what the Brewers might get, it’s very difficult to gauge trade value as simply a fan, but I would hope for a B level starting pitching prospect that has one year or less of Major League Service time. Based on what I’ve read, I’ll throw out a guess of Hart and Todd Coffey to the Rays for Wade Davis.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2010, Transactions

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Important Announcement that I am, in fact, still alive

Posted on April 26, 2010 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Dan

Greeting everyone. Feels like just yesterday I made a post on this blog, but paging through the archives reveals it was actually June of 1999 the last time I posted.  I’m actually surprised it only took me 3 tries to login.  My official excuse for my prolonged absence is that I was trapped working in an area with no radio reception for the 2009 season, which makes my insight really boring. “Say, did anyone else notice Casey McGehee’s OBP dropped 3 points this week?” doesn’t really inspire a great discussion.  That said, who knows if we’ll look back at this post and laugh next season when I have made no additional posts and the blog is called Darrylandsteve.com — but I will make an honest effort.

My work schedule kind of keeps me from actually watching many of the games, but I do get to listen to them which helps me actually follow more closely than simply coming home and checking to see if they won.  I’m sure my observations will pale in comparison to Joe Morgan’s, and people who actually WATCH the games, but I’ll try.

My main inspiration for breaking the silence was the Phillies extending Ryan Howard (30 years old) through his age-35 season for $125 million.  I’m pretty sure the risks are obvious, but if they aren’t: Howard is already 30, he’s 6’4″ and 260 pounds, and his 3-year average OPS vs lefties is only .741, including .653 last season.  But the title of this blog isn’t “Phillies, Phillies Keep Turning Up the Heat” so I’ll leave that analysis to this guy).

This has certain ramifications for the Brewers chances to re-sign Prince.  Obviously, it establishes some sort of precedent Scott Boras will use in free agency, and to me it spells the end for Prince in Milwaukee–if they had any shot of extending him in the first place.  Prince is 4 and a half years younger, which means the team who signs him gets him through his prime, whereas Howard is already past his.  The past three seasons, Fielder has a WAR 14.7, where Howard’s is 12.4 so Fielder’s been the more productive player. I can’t see 5/$125M even getting it done for Prince, and I’m not sure it’s worth it.  Prince is a great player, and we all love him, but I just don’t think they can/should commit $25M of a $90M payroll for one guy.  It also makes Fielder more likely to test free agency because Howard was slated to hit FA at the same time as Prince.  That class of 1B is scheduled to include Prince, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.  The common thought is that this could kind of curtail the market for Prince, but now with Howard gone that is lessened.  You also have to assume Pujols won’t walk, so that has to make Prince more excited to be more of the main attraction.

Here’s what I propose the Brewers should do instead:

1.  Extend Rickie Weeks — Rickie is picking up right where he left off last year before the wrist injury derailed his season.  I’m trying not to overreact over what is essentially his last 150 ABs, but even his .740 OPS over 560 PA in 2008 as a floor/baseline is valuable enough and it really seems he’s turned the corner.  If this .850 OPS version of Rickie Weeks is the real deal, he’s far more valuable, and far less replaceable than Prince.  I have no idea what it would take to extend Weeks right now, or if he’d go for it but I think this is a big priority since I can’t see us affording both Weeks and Fielder.

2.  Trade Fielder for some haul as soon as it’s confirmed this team isn’t going anywhere this year.  If the Brewers can get something like what the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira it could go a long way toward the Brewers long term outlook.  If they could find a few players they controlled for 4+ years who could become big contributors, that could be worth more than just the Prince extension.

3.  I think the Brewers’ business plan has to bewhat they’ve done to this point.  Basically, I think that extensions are going to have to be club-friendly ones like the ones Yo and Braun signed.  There’s risk in doing it that way, but it allows you to buy out a year or possibly 2 of free agency while keeping the dollar amount down.  Granted, the Bill Hall contract blew up in their face, but I still think that’s the way to go.  I also realize this wasn’t possible with the Boras/Fielder duo, but if it’s possible with Weeks I think they should take it.  He carries more injury risk I guess, but I’m always willing to give players the benefit of the doubt (I seem to have guys like Brian Westbrook, or Rich Harden every year on my fantasy teams) in terms of injury-proneness (there’s no red squiggly line but how can that be a word?) Unless you believe that Rickie Weeks wrists are just frail and more easily torn than most, I guess I just assume its a fluke.

I’ll leave the proof-reading to Steve.

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Posted in Dan Running Naked in Public, Milwaukee Brewers 2010, The legend of Rickie Weeks and his titanium skeletal system, Transactions

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LOL Giants

Posted on March 4, 2010 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

I’m guessing when people realize things like pitcher wins, RBIs and saves are meaningless will be around the time when “baseball etiquette” is discarded as petty.  In other words, I’m sure it will never happen.

How pathetic is it that the Giants were so offended by actual personality on a baseball field that they felt the need to retaliate in a Spring Training game for something that happened last year?  I’m not going to get into all that again, except to say that Prince Fielder didn’t stare down a pitcher or anything; he celebrated with his teammates–and it was awesome.

And of all people, the Giants decide to retaliate with the fireballer Barry Zito?  I bet that 84 mph four-seamer really did some damage to Fielder.

Anyway, I love Prince’s reaction (from the JS):

Fielder just stood there and looked at Zito before picking up the ball and tossing it back toward him. The plate umpire didn’t issue any warning or say anything to Fielder or Zito, at least it didn’t appear like he did.

Fielder then got to first base and loudly clapped his hands together in Zito’s direction.

As the inning ended, Zito walked off the mound and Fielder just laughed with first-base coach Ed Sedar.

“They gotta do what they gotta do,” Fielder said. “But it’s not going to take (the celebration) away. It’s chronicled.

“I hit the home run and they gotta hit me. That’s what they gotta do.”

I asked Prince if he thought the celebration was worth taking one in the back.

“Hell yeah,” Fielder said. “That’s something I did with me and my teammates. It has nothing to do with them.

“You’re damn right it was worth it.”

Zito on the other hand, didn’t cop to purposely throwing at Prince.

“We were just trying to go in there hard,” Zito said. “It’s not something that was thought about for months and months.”

Actually Barry, that’s exactly what it was.  Sounds embarrassing when you actually say it out loud, huh?

The next time Prince homers against the Giants, I hope he takes a seat on home plate before running around the bases.  Make some dirt angels or something.

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Posted in Milwaukee Brewers 2010

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Money! It’s a gas.

Posted on February 11, 2010 by | 2 Comments

Posted by Steve

Fans seem to have strong feelings when it comes to player salaries.  Many chastise a player for holding out for more money and celebrate the one who re-signs long-term.  I can see why, because when most players make more in a year than the average person makes in a lifetime, people are bound to be put off.

On the slim chance that anyone actually cares, here are my thoughts on the matter.  Yes, baseball players are paid obscene amounts of money.  No, they aren’t as important as firefighters, doctors, teachers, plumbers, etc.  But let me ask this.  Are millions of people willing to pay 30+ bucks a pop to go watch those people work?  People are willing to pay that to watch baseball players.  That’s why I can’t agree with those who hold salaries of professional athletes against them.  The demand for their profession is huge, and simple economics say when something is in high demand, cost goes up.  Aren’t you going to collect your money if you win the lottery?  These people won the lottery with their talent.

I also don’t understand changing feelings about a player based on his decision to sign long-term somewhere.  Players are taking calculated risks by signing or refusing those extensions.  A few years ago, the Brewers approached both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder with extensions.  These offers were team-friendly, but also made sure the player got paid big money much earlier than if he’d have gone through the three-year pre-arby pay scale.

As we all know, Braun signed his deal and Prince did not.  Braun was lauded and Prince was grumbled about.  Some even interpreted it as Braun liking Milwaukee and Prince wanting to get out.  I’d be shocked if things were that cut and dried.  What it more than likely came down to is this:  Braun decided financial security was important to him, while Prince instead wanted to hold out for a bigger payday.

Here’s the interesting part.  A couple years later, with the huge benefit of hindsight, Prince Fielder looks a lot smarter than Ryan Braun.  Prince put up massive numbers and is poised to receive at least double what the Brewers offered a couple years ago.  Meanwhile, after Braun’s great 2009, think of what he could demand now if he hadn’t signed his extension.  It would literally be several million dollars more.  I’m not saying Braun made the “wrong” move, because of course he didn’t have the benefit of hindsight that we do now.  If he had known he’d stay healthy and put up two monster seasons, maybe he wouldn’t have signed his extension.  He chose security in case of injury or drop in production.  Neither has occurred yet, but you can’t blame him for protecting himself–just as you can’t blame Prince for taking a gamble that has paid off in a big way.  I’ll certainly have more to say on Fielder’s contract situation as the season goes on, as the possibility of making a much larger offer has become a big issue once again.

Alright.  So now that that’s out of the way, how does this apply to the Brewers’ current situation, namely, Corey Hart’s?  Hart is another player who turned down an extension a couple years ago, and unlike Prince Fielder’s, Hart’s decision has not paid off.  His production has dropped pretty severely in the last couple seasons, to the point where many teams would no longer consider him a starter.

Hart is of course making headlines currently due to his “record-breaking” arbitration case taking place today.  I say record-breaking because he is the first Brewer to actually reach arbitration since Doug Melvin has been GM.  Every other player over the years has been able to reach a middle ground with the Brewers and avoid the undesirable outcome of the team listing off all the reasons he doesn’t deserve the money he’s requesting.

Players who go through arbitration generally receive raises no matter how they performed the previous season.  It seems strange, but it makes up for their first three seasons of league-minimum salary.  Last year, Corey Hart made $3.25 million.  In arbitration this season, he filed for $4.8, while the Brewers offered $4.15.  In my opinion (and the Brewers’, obviously), $4.8 is too huge of a raise for a guy who missed time last season and didn’t hit well when he was healthy (.753 OPS).  Hart rejected a raise that was likely more than a million dollars (the Brewers meet in the middle of those two figures to avoid arbitration, so somewhere around $4.4 million is what Hart is likely turning down.)  Like I said earlier, I don’t blame a guy for asking for more money, but Hart is overstepping his bounds here.  He’s coming off two consecutive poor seasons, and he’s saying a million bucks isn’t enough of a raise.  He’s not going to win his case, and he’s going to have to sit through all the reasons why before the panel chooses the Brewers’ offer (there’s no settling in this system; the panel chooses either the team’s figure or the player’s figure).

I guess all this rambling (boy, that was a lot of rambling, huh?) goes to show that you just never know what the right choice is when it comes to these pre-arbitration extensions.  They’ve paid off for the Brewers in the cases of Ben Sheets and Ryan Braun, but they’ve been burned by Bill Hall, and they would have been burned had Hart not rejected his.  Picking their spots for extensions is one of the most important thing for smaller market teams to do.  If it’s done right, you can get long-term production at a great value.  If it’s not, it can strap a team for years.

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July in review: It sucked.

Posted on August 1, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

Entering July, the Brewers were 42-35 and had a two game lead in the NL Central.  Hard to believe that was just a month ago.  A 9-17 month has dropped the Crew to fourth place, prevented them from trading for an impact starting pitcher and dropped their playoff odds to 2.4%.  It’s not often that a team’s season goes down the toilet in just one month, but the Brewers managed to pull it off beautifully.

To find the reason for their struggles, there’s no need to look beyond starting pitching.  The Brewers have allowed the third most runs per game in the National League.  Their starters are averaging 5.6 innings per game started, the second worst mark in the NL.  That has unsurprisingly taken a toll on a bullpen that was a team strength, but has worn down due to overuse.  Things aren’t going to go well when you have one above average starting pitcher on your team.  Let’s look at this brutal rotation.

Yovani Gallardo

Good, but not great.  His strikeout totals are great, but he’s fifth-worst in the league in walks per nine innings with 4.3.  The walks have prevented him from being efficient and pitching deep into games consistently.  It has not, however, prevented the Brewers from riding him like a rented mule.  Gallardo leads the NL in pitches thrown per start with 108.  That is mind-boggling.  No, it’s actually infuriating.  More than anything, even more than the awful July that took the Brewers out of the playoff race, the way Gallardo has been abused has me furious.  THE GUY THREW 24 INNINGS LAST YEAR!  He’s 23 years old!  Am I missing something that Ken Macha isn’t?  This is completely unacceptable.

Manny Parra

Not good.  Manny has had some good starts, but most have been the of the nibbling-then-grooving-strikes variety.  He can be maddening to watch.  I’m able to defend him a bit; he has had terrible luck.  His ERA is an ugly 6.5, but his BABIP is .368 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.59.  In other words, he hasn’t been terrible, just below average.  His walk rate continues to be terrible, though.

Dave Bush

Incomplete.  Bush’s injury has doomed the Brewers, because it allowed for the Mike Burns era to occur.  Bush was the most known commodity in the Brewers’ rotation.  You knew you’d be getting an unspectacular yet solid starter who, until this year, would be able to pitch all season.

Braden Looper/Jeff Suppan

Awful.  Simply horrendous.  I lumped these two together because each one doesn’t even deserve his own paragraph.  If you want a good laugh (cry?), head over to fangraphs.com.  Sort by league leaders, choose National League and sort by worst FIP.  Alright, I’m sure you aren’t feeling that ambitious, so I’ll do you a favor and tell you what you’d find: Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan are number 1 and 2 on that list.  That’s right ladies and gents!  Out of all qualified starting pitchers in the National League, the Brewers have not one, but the two very worst pitchers in the league!  That’s actually incredibly impressive.  I wonder if that’s even happened before?

This terrible month has also eliminated them from being buyers at the trade deadline.  It made no sense to give up any prospects for rental players with the team hovering at .500.  The problem is, selling wasn’t a great option either.  The rental players they had to sell include Trevor Hoffman, Mike Cameron, Craig Counsell and Felipe Lopez.  There’s a strong possibility that the Brewers will attempt to bring back at least three of those players for next season, because they want to win next year.  It’s tough to be a true seller when your aim is to compete the very next season.  Also, many have mentioned J.J. Hardy in trade rumors, but I didn’t list him among the candidates to trade because I’m just not ready to hand over the everyday shortstop job to Alcides Escobar.  Escobar is hitting .302/.352/.413 in AAA.  Not horrible, but far from beating down the door to the majors.  So basically, the Brewers were forced to stand pat.

(And yes, I count the Claudio Vargas deal as standing pat.  They didn’t give up anything of value, so it’s low-risk, but I can’t stand watching the Human Rain Delay pitch).

It hurts to say it, but we have to be realistic.  The Brewers are done for 2009.  There’s no way they can compete with three terrible starting pitchers (Suppan, Looper and Burns) in the rotation.  It’s a damn shame, too.  They’re wasting career years from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.

Prince is actually having an MVP season.  He leads in probably the number one stathead category, WPA (Win Probability Added).  From fangraphs: WPA takes into account the importance of each situation in the game. A walk off home run is going to be weighted more then a home run in a game that has already gotten out of hand. This makes it a great tool for determining how valuable a player was to his team’s win total.

In other words, a strong argument could be made that Fielder has been the MVP.  If nothing else, he’s the runaway number 2 candidate to Pujols.  Either way, they’re wasting an outstanding year with their crap pitching.

It’s sad that we’re already forced to look ahead to the 2010 season.  This team is likely going to look a LOT different next year, as it should.  In the meantime, here’s to another two months of watching the Looper Grimace.

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Remind me a year from now…

Posted on July 14, 2009 by | Leave a comment

Posted by Steve

I don’t normally care much about the home run derby, particularly because Chris Berman makes my ears bleed, but that was pretty cool.  If nothing else, it was good to have something positive after a rough end to the first half of the season.  Prince stole the show.  This photo by ESPN is awesome.

And how great is it that he did the “untuckem” in front of the very fanbase who is so offended by it?  I couldn’t believe that dude from MLB mentioned it when he presented the trophy.  I could just picture Rick Horton’s blood boiling.  He’s the Cardinals announcer who said untucking jerseys after a win is the most disrespectful thing he’s seen (paraphrasing).

I’m really going to have to remember to live-blog the derby next year just for the sheer absurdity of the commentary.  In fact, if anyone reads this and remembers next year, please remind me.  While the ESPN broadcast wasn’t anything special (we heard better insight in two minutes of Albert Pujols talking about Prince Fielder than any of the analysts), I noticed they nipped the Rick Reilly experiment in the bud after on year. It’s a bad night to be an atheist! Sha-wuhhh?

For what it’s worth, and since I should probably say something more than “hey that was a cool home run derby,” I’m not worried about a big power drop from Fielder because he participated in the derby.  He has a pretty natural uppercut swing (as Joe Morgan pointed out about 47 times during the broadcast).  He also hit 50 homers in 2007, the last time he was in the derby.  Generally, I think the impact that it has on players is pretty overblown.

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Wrapping up June with a Thought Cornucopia

Posted on July 1, 2009 by | 3 Comments

Posted by Steve

JSOnline.com

Heckuva game tonight!  That picture just about says it all.  When Mike Burns defeats Johan Santana, it’s safe to describe that as stealing a win.  After a rough stretch, the Brewers have rattled off four wins in five games and are back atop the NL Central.  There are plenty of things to talk about lately, and it’s been awhile since we’ve had a Cornucopia of Thoughts, so let’s get this party started quickly.

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We’ll start with the bad news.  Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers’ top pitching prospect entering the year and a first round pick from a few years ago, has been suspended 100 games for testing positive for a “substance of abuse.”  If you’re wondering why it’s such a harsh punishment, it’s because this is actually the third time Jeffress has tested positive.  He actually served a 50-game suspension two years ago for the same problem, and if he manages to test positive one more time, he faces a lifetime ban from minor league baseball.

Jeffress has admitted to testing positive for marijuana in the past, and it’s being assumed that this latest positive test is also from marijuana.  A lifetime ban might seem harsh, but regardless of your views on the the legalization issue, it’s pretty much impossible to defend Jeffress at this point.  His value is just about nil now, and he’s dangerously close to throwing away his baseball career.  This is a tough blow for an organization that’s already short on impact pitching.

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I’ve become pretty annoyed by the Brewers’ treatment of Mat Gamel.  There’s no reason he should be sitting on the bench as much as he has.  I understand that Casey McGehee is playing great, but there’s no reason Craig Counsell should be playing over Gamel as much as he has.  Ken Macha is obviously not crazy about having Gamel’s defense in the lineup, but how is Gamel supposed to improve his defense if he isn’t playing?

The bottom line is that if Gamel isn’t going to get regular playing time in Milwaukee, he needs to be back in AAA so he can continue to work on his defense.  The argument may be that the Brewers are in “win now” mode, and that Gamel should be up because he makes the big league club better, but that’s not even necessarily the case.  The Brewers have an infielder in the minors, Adam Heether, who is lighting up AAA to the tune of a .991 OPS.  They could easily swap out Gamel for Heether and not miss a beat from what they’ve had since Gamel’s been up.  Heether is 27, so there’s not the same need to get him playing time that there is with Gamel.

I hate to see Gamel burning up service time if he’s not even going to get semi-regular playing time.

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For whatever reason, Mark DiFelice hasn’t been placed in the high leverage role that he was before having the sore arm.  He’s pitched in non-close situations frequently since returning to the team, and I can’t figure out why.  What’s troubling to me is that Macha has deferred to Todd Coffey over DiFelice is close situations lately.  Any way you slice it, DiFelice is the superior pitcher.

We saw an example of this in tonight’s game.  With David Wright set to hit, DiFelice was pulled from the game in favor of Coffey.  Can someone please give Macha a copy of DiFelice’s splits?  Right handed hitters are OPSing .390(!) against DiFelice.  That doesn’t scream ‘Take him out of the game’ when the opposing team’s best right-handed hitter is at the plate.

With Stetter against lefites and DiFelice against righties, Macha has some great weapons to bridge the gap to Trevor Hoffman.  He needs to start using DiFelice the way he should be used, which is as a righty neutralizer.

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Alright, I have to make one positive point, right?  Prince Fielder is having an absolute monster year.

Twenty home runs is great, as is the .306 batting average, but what’s really made the difference for Prince is his patience.  Fielder has always been a fairly patient hitter, but his eye this year has been outstanding.  His OBP before last night’s game was .424, which is uncharted territory for him (career high of .395).  Barring something very bad, Fielder will shatter the team record for walks in a season.

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Time for some tidbits.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned from this job, it’s that nobody enjoys being a Major League baseball player more than Cincinnati Reds infielder Adam Rosales.  This guy is literally always happy when on the baseball field.  At first I couldn’t tell if it bugged me, but now I love when I get a Reds game and he’s in the lineup so I can see what he’ll do next.  Check out his sprint around the bases for his first career home run.  Other great clips that I wasn’t able to find: Rosales leaping into the air with a jumpkick after a Reds walkoff win, and a post-game interview in which he yells, “It’s like a dream come true!” through maniacal laughter.

Check him out the next time you see a Reds game, but do it soon.  Rosales has plummeted to a .561 OPS, so he might not be in the big leagues much longer.

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I’m starting to feel like a GM at work, but not because of the job itself.  We’re allowed to switch games, and there are at least four Yankee fans in the office.  This means that whenever I get a Yankee game, I’ll have at least two people ask me to switch.

As the only Brewer fan in the office, this works heavily in my favor.  Yankee fans regularly try to trade me Brewer games for Yankee games.  I even talk like a GM to up the trade value.  “I’m not motivated to move my Yankee game at this time, but I’m willing to listen to offers.”

I had a Yankee game today, and it had more value than normal because Joba Chamberlain was starting (Yankee fans love them some Joba).  I actually had a guy say to me today, “I have some Brewer games next month that I could offer for that game today, but I’d rather acquire Tim’s Brewer game tonight to use and keep those games as bargaining chips down the line.”  Awesome.

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Posted in Cornucopia of thoughts, Crocodile Blood, DiFeliciousness

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