Offensive Projections

I got my Baseball Prospectus Manual last week, which means you get PECOTA projections for the Brewers. In case you don’t know, PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a system for projecting performance. It incorporates many factors, but basically it looks at a player’s past performance and projects future performance based on how comparable players have done. It has proven to be a impressively accurate and useful tool. You can see a much more detailed description of PECOTA on its wikipedia page. Here are some interesting ones:

Hitters
(batting average/on-base %/slugging %)

Ryan Braun .283/.341/.504 21 HR,71 RBI

Johnny Estrada .280/.326/.423 9 HR, 50 RBI

Prince Fielder .292/.375/.529 28 HR, 94 RBI

Bill Hall .277/.345/.520 28 HR, 83 RBI

J.J. Hardy .263/.329/.419 11 HR, 44 RBI (384 Plate appearances)

Corey Hart .288/.352/.518 19 HR, 63 RBI

Geoff Jenkins .268/.343/.449 16 HR, 62 RBI

Rickie Weeks .275/.358/.456 16 HR, 61 RBI

Some thoughts.

1. They are really, really high on Ryan Braun. An .845 OPS and 21 homers as a third baseman are lofty numbers for a 23-year-old. If he approached this he’d be right up there for Rookie of the Year.

2. BP has Prince down for a big step forward, projecting big jumps in average, OBP and slugging. Their only modest projection is home runs with 28; I would be a little surprised if he didn’t exceed that number. Fielder is going to be a beast.

3. They expect Bill Hall to regress some from his monster season. They still project a very solid .865 OPS, but they have him hitting seven less homers and dropping a bit in slugging. Hall may never have a season as good as ’06 again, but he’ll still be a huge part of the Crew’s attack.

4. Those are some great projections for Hart.  If I had to guess off the top of my head I’d say his OBP would be a little higher and his slugging would be a little lower.

5. I’d be very surprised if Jenkins didn’t exceed those numbers.  They’re even worse than his season from last year, which was pretty much a career low.  I expect better power numbers this season.

6. They obviously think Hardy will be injured again, as they only have him for 384 PAs.  They really need a full season from J.J., mainly to limit Counsell’s playing time.

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2 responses to “Offensive Projections

  1. do they have these projections for pitchers too?

  2. They do. ‘Twill be featured in an upcoming post.

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