Posted by Dan
A thread I saw on brewerfan.net gave me the idea for this post, which is why we should not even consider giving up on Dave Bush in the rotation yet. After posting a 4.41 ERA (4.25 as a starter) and 1.14 WHIP over 210 innings he was projected as a breakout candidate coming into the 2007 season. Now, with an unimpressive 5.73/1.36 start over 44 innings, many are itching to move him to the pen. I think that would be a mistake. Looking at his peripheral stats, you can see Bush is pitching better than it appears at first glance. I’ll list them with his 2006 numbers, and his 2007 numbers second.
Strikeouts per nine innings= 7.11/6.96
Strikeouts per Walk=4.37/4.25
HR per nine innings= 1.11/1.02
As a pitcher, the things you can control are how many hitters you strikeout, how many hitters you walk, and how many home runs you allow– Everything else depends on what happens once the ball is hit. So, what is there to attribute Bush’s disappointing start to? I believe it is simply bad luck. As of May 1, his “Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP)” is .383. This means on balls hit into play (not including HR) opposing hitters have a batting average of .383! The league average is around .300 which means more texas leaguers are falling in, more line drives are getting through and more groundballs are just out of our fielders reach than statistics say is normal. This will even out with time and Bush’s numbers will return to where we expect them to be.