Now watch me spin-off Steve’s idea

Posted by Dan

In going with the theme of who has been lucky and who has been unlucky, I thought I would look at a few players who are getting lucky (high batting average on balls in play) and some who are getting unlucky (low BABIP). An “average” BABIP is .290-.300 but a player generally established career norms over time that are more personal than that general guideline.

The Unlucky:

1. Richie Sexson (Since 2005): .310–.306–.210

2. Julio Lugo: .330–.335(w/TB)/.281(w/LAD)–.218

3. Jermaine Dye (since 04): .314–.287–.341–.230 (Dye is interesting because after greatly exceeding his career norms last year, he is way short of them this year. Basically, Dye was lucky to be as good as his MVP caliber numbers in 2006 indicated, and he has been unlucky to be as bad as his current .673 OPS indicates.

4. Pat Burrell (since 04): .316–.344–.302–.242

The Lucky:

Derrek Lee: .354–.344–.402

Jorge Posada: .294–.312–.395

Magglio Ordonez: .329–.320–.392

Hunter Pence: .392

Dmitri Young: .297–.306–.288–.383

Ryan Braun: .411 I hate to list him here, and the power is obviously real, but if anyone out there thinks he’s really a .350 hitter then I have a bit of bad news.

Lastly, Miguel Caberea shows up on the list of highest BABIP, but if you look at his numbers from the last 3 seasons (.368, .382, .386) it shows he may not be lucky, just good. His line drive percentages over those years is 24.3%, 24.2% and 22.3% which is very high and would explain his ability to maintain a high BABIP.

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