Cappy should be DFA’d!

Posted by Dan

Of course not really, but I’ve seen various suggestions on messageboards which want him moved to the pen, removed from the rotation and put in mop-up duty. Someone even suggested he become our LOOGY! This guy has a 4.00 ERA over the past two seasons. I (correctly) predicted Bush’s numbers would improve (they did), and now let me do it with Capuano. Here are some of his stats, from 2005, 2006 and this year.

ERA: 3.99 — 4.03 — 5.13

K/9: 7.23 — 7.08 — 7.68

K/BB: 1.93 — 3.70 — 1.94

HR/9: 1.25 — 1.20 — .90

BB/9: 3.74 — 1.91 — 3.95

Strand Rate: 77.3 — 72.4 — 65.6

A few things, first of all, like Bush earlier this year, Capuano is simply allowing too many runners to score. His 65.6 Strand Rate is roughly 10% lower than his career norms. Also, his 1.38 WHIP in 2005 should have indicated that he may have pitched slightly worse than his 3.99 ERA indicated, but fans may have higher expectations because of that year. Give Cappy some time, if you look at his secondary stats you can see his performance is VERY similar to 2005, and the numbers should “regress to the mean” to use a fancy term. Lastly, though fans thinks it will only get worse, citing his poor second half splits from the past three years, consider this (if you attribute his poor 2nd halves to wearing down): His IP at the All-Star Break since 2005 have been 121.1, 129 and this year, 79. So I dont think that trend has to continue this year.

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2 responses to “Cappy should be DFA’d!

  1. Interesting points about the strand rate and the innings. Capuano’s walks have really been up lately, and that’s primarily what’s hurting him. Yost’s strong point is sticking with struggling players, and it seems to work out the majority of the time (save for Jenkins last year).

  2. Yeah, he has 15 BB in his last 21.1 IP…

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