Who’s ready for Sciosciaball?

Posted by Steve

I’m not going to officially criticize the Brewers’ hire of Ron Roenicke before I’ve even seen him manage, but I’m not crazy about hiring someone from the Angels. The Angels play the type of baseball I can’t stand to watch: crappy hitters at the top of the order who can’t get on base (and when they do, they often get caught stealing).

Say what you want about Macha, but I thought the best thing about him was his realization that bunting, along with stealing at a rate below 75%, is harmful to your chances of winning. Last year the Brewers had 81 stolen bases to 26 caught stealings–a 75.7% clip. Running was not a part of their game, but they were efficient and didn’t make outs on the basepaths.

The Angels are a different story. They stole 104 bases, but were caught 52 times–just a 66.6% rate. Yet when you hear people praise the Angels, you hear things like “They put pressure on the defense,” and “They’re aggressive. They don’t sit back and wait for home runs,” as if home runs are a bad thing. It’s absurd.

Like I said, I’m not going to rip him before he gets here, but let’s just say I’m leery. People like to complain about the Brewers “sitting around waiting for home runs,” but they were fourth in the NL in runs scored this season and third last season. The offense ain’t broke, so let’s not fix it.

EDIT: You know what creates more runs than stolen bases? On-base percentage and home runs. There is no correlation between stolen bases and runs scored. I got so sick of reading so many people on Brewerfan criticizing “Standing around waiting for a home run” that I did this bit of research. It only proves that there is no correlation whatsoever between stolen bases and runs scored. There is a strong one, however, between runs scored and both home runs and walks.

NL Stolen Base Leaders
2010: 13th in runs scored (Mets)
2009: 12th in runs scored (Mets)
2008: 8th in runs scored (Rockies)
2007: 4th in runs scored (Mets)
2006: 3rd in runs scored (Mets)
2005: 7th in runs scored (Mets)

NL Walk Leaders
2010: 5th in runs scored (Braves)
2009: 2nd in runs scored (Rockies)
2008: 1st in runs scored (Cubs)
2007: 1st in runs scored (Phillies)
2006: 1st in runs scored (Phillies)
2005: 2nd in runs scored (Phillies)

NL Home Run Leaders
2010: 1st in runs scored (Reds)
2009: 1st in runs scored (Phillies)
2008: Tied for 2nd in runs scored (Phillies)
2007: 5th in runs scored (Brewers)
2006: 2nd in runs scored (Braves)
2005: 1st in runs scored (Reds)


3 responses to “Who’s ready for Sciosciaball?

  1. Point well taken about homeruns and walks correlating with runs scored and stolen bases not.
    Homeruns and walks seem to be a tougher skill set to acquire…We all seem to recognize in 2010 that BA and stolen bases are backs of baseball cards fun stats.
    Having said that, I think stolen bases are appropriate for a team that does NOT walk enough and when you consider the speed presence on the roster, there is little to lose except the obvious “running out of innings.” I share your concern with Roenicke’s statements, but no one is taking the bat out of Fielder or Braun or Weeks hands. If they do, they will be run out of town.

  2. Right. I’m not saying the Brewers need to run as little as last season, but my concern is whether he’ll go crazy with it.

    For what it’s worth, the Brewers were not a team that did not walk enough. They were fifth in the NL last year in drawing walks. Now, if Prince Fielder is traded, that’s likely to change, but as of now they’re a solid offense in general.

  3. 5th in walks…I’m pleasantly surprised!
    I think the intent here is to take an extra base like Elvis of the Rangers going first to third on an infield out. According to fans who witnessed the Angels over the last 10 years, the team had a disciplined habit of practicing base running…..strange going ons for an American League team.
    Roenicke to take calculated risks with hit and runs and increasing the confidence of would be base stealers Escobar, Hart, Braun, Weeks, Cain…and Gomez (not that he needs the confidence)…
    Also, Melvin is in a desparate place with 2 years left in his contract and a situation calling for rebuilding. He seems to be still trying to sell the 2008 season with “just one more starter to save the day.”
    So, he made a 360 degree decision and will hopefully continue to build for 2013 or whenever….If this means trading Fielder rather than waiting and gaining some draft picks via free agent compensation and enjoying one more year with Fielder, then so be it. According to people talking about Fielder trades, his value has dropped which makes me flinch a bit….thinking we should have unloaded him at peak value…I’m no financial expert, but if we are unable to fork out Fielder money, we need to move him for a pitcher and some prospects. I hope there are takers out there.

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